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THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS Raymond Torto Chairman, Global Research

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS€¦ · THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS Raymond Torto Chairman, Global Research . 2 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY GLOBAL OUTLOOK:

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Page 1: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS€¦ · THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS Raymond Torto Chairman, Global Research . 2 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY GLOBAL OUTLOOK:

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS Raymond Torto

Chairman, Global Research

Page 2: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS€¦ · THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS Raymond Torto Chairman, Global Research . 2 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY GLOBAL OUTLOOK:

2 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY

GLOBAL OUTLOOK: MODEST BUT IMPROVING!

Quarterly Real GDP, Year-over-Year % Change

Forecast

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Source: IHS Global Insight, Q3 2013.

Page 3: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS€¦ · THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS Raymond Torto Chairman, Global Research . 2 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY GLOBAL OUTLOOK:

3 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY

GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Source: CBRE Research Q2 2013

The global series is a simple aggregation of the three regional series; EMEA, Asia, US/Canada.

The Asian markets include: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Taipei, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Bangkok, Manila, HCMC, Hanoi, Kuala Lumpur, New Delhi,

Mumbai, and Bangalore.

The EMEA markets include: Amsterdam, Barcelona, Berlin, Brussels, Copenhagen, Dublin, Frankfurt, London City, London West End, Madrid, Munich, Paris, Prague,

Vienna, Warsaw and Zurich.

The US and Canadian Markets include CBRE-Econometric Advisors’ Sum of Markets.

This chart covers all office stock, not just prime.

Page 4: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS€¦ · THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS Raymond Torto Chairman, Global Research . 2 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY GLOBAL OUTLOOK:

U.S. INTEREST RATES AND COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE PRICING

Page 5: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS€¦ · THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS Raymond Torto Chairman, Global Research . 2 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY GLOBAL OUTLOOK:

5 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY

Cap rate (%) is composed of:

Risk free rate

Risk premium

Liquidity premium

Expected NOI growth

Susceptible to Rate Shock?

CONCEPTUAL CAP RATE COMPOSITION (%)

Page 6: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS€¦ · THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS Raymond Torto Chairman, Global Research . 2 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY GLOBAL OUTLOOK:

GROWTH IS NOT ENOUGH

Page 7: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS€¦ · THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS Raymond Torto Chairman, Global Research . 2 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY GLOBAL OUTLOOK:

7 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY

40% of knowledge workers will

have abandoned or removed their desk

phone by the end of 2013.

Source: Gartner Research

50% of the US workforce

is predicted to be independent

contractors by 2020.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Real estate currently

represents one of the

largest costs of doing business, second only

to labor.

Traditional office space has

a utilization rate of

50%.

Source: Various Industry Studies

CEOs have a new strategy in the unending war for talent. They are creating more open

and collaborative cultures – encouraging employees to connect, learn from each other

and thrive in a world of rapid change.

Source: IBM Global CEO Insights Report 2012

A CHANGING WORKFORCE

A WAR FOR TALENT

UNDERUTILZATION OF SPACE

Page 8: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS€¦ · THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS Raymond Torto Chairman, Global Research . 2 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY GLOBAL OUTLOOK:

8 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY

March 5, 1770

BOSTON CENTER OF GRAVITY

Built in 1705

Page 9: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS€¦ · THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS Raymond Torto Chairman, Global Research . 2 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY GLOBAL OUTLOOK:

9 CBRE | BUSINESS REVIEW DAY

BOSTON 4 TOWERS AT CENTER VS. SEAPORT SUB-MARKET

0

5

10

15

20

25

State Street (4-Buildings) Seaport

Vacancy Rate, %

Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, data as of Q4 2012.