The Global Dimensions of Change in River Basins - GWSP · Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environ-mental Change (IHDP), ... Environmental and socio -economic issues associated

The Global Dimensions of Change in River Basins

Threats, Linkages and Adaptati on

6 - 8 December 2010

University Club Bonn, Germany

Volume of Abstracts

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Global Water System ProjectConference of the Global Catchment Initi ati ve (GCI)

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Photo Copyright (fl tr): GWSP, Witline/UN Photo, Rotner/UN Photo, Perret/UN Photo

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EditorsKonrad Vielhauer, Janos Bogardi

Layout and DesignEva Riedke

Abstract Reviewing TeamCharles Biney, Janos Bogardi, Bernd Diekkrüger,Joyeeta Gupta, Holger Hoff, Oleg Kashchenko,Wolfram Mauser, Hubert Onibon, Claudia Pahl-Wostl,Maja Schlüter

PublisherThe Global Water System Project International Project Offi ce

The Global Water System Project (GWSP) is a Joint Project of the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) consisting of four Global Environmental Change Programmes: the International Geosphere- Bio sphere Programme (IGBP), the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environ-mental Change (IHDP), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and DIVERSITAS, an interna-tional programme of biodiversity science. The over-arching question of the GWSP is how human actions are changing the global water system and what are the environmental and socio-economic feedbacks arising from the anthropogenic changes in the global water system.

ContactGWSP International Project Offi ce (IPO)Walter-Flex-Str. 353113 BonnGermanyPhone: + 49 - 228 - 73 61 88Fax: + 49 - 228 - 736 08 34Email: [email protected]

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GCI Conference December 2010, Bonn Index

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INDEX

Index ......................................................................................................................................................... 3

TimeTABLE .............................................................................................................................................. 9

Abstracts ................................................................................................................................................. 24

Opening Plenary Session .................................................................................................................. 24

Challenges of climate change impacts in Africa, exemplified by the case of the South African water sector - Where from? Where now? Where to in future? (invited presentation to topic: Climate change impact on river basins) ........................... 24 A global geography of rivers in crisis - Human and biodiversity perspectives (invited presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages between river basins and the earth system) ....................................................................................................... 25

Climate change impacts on river basins ........................................................................................... 25

Promotion of rain cities for climate change adaptation in a river basin ....................................... 25 Future global water resources with respect to climate change and water withdrawals................................................................................................................................... 26 Evaluating hydroclimatic impacts of climate change in the Upper Blue Nile river basin ..................................................................................................................................... 27 Estimating green-blue water availability and needs for global food production ........................... 27 Impact of global change on large river basins - Example of the Yellow river basin ............................................................................................................................................. 28 Bias correction of climate model data - The golden solution for impact models or cursed black magic? ................................................................................................... 28

Connectivities and linkages between river basins and the earth system .......................................... 29

Europe, the meta-catchment? Homogenization of the freshwater fish fauna across Europe. ............................................................................................................................. 29 Resilience of river basins under global change ........................................................................... 29 Water resources in a river basin context to be managed in a way that they deliver greatest benefit to all and in the long run - comparative analysis at global scale .................................................................................................................................. 30 Scale problems of global irrigation simulations ............................................................................ 30 Hydrologic drought in western Canada - Its detection, characterization, impacts and challenges ................................................................................................................ 31

Impacts of large-scale land use patterns and demographic changes ............................................... 31

Competing claims for water in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia - Global drivers and local opportunities ..................................................................................................... 31 Regional responses to the global change: drivers for changes in social - ecological systems in the Amudarya River Basin ........................................................................ 32 Effect of changing anthropogenic and climate conditions on BOD loading and in-stream water quality in Europe ......................................................................................... 32 High noon - Adaptation to changing water resources availability in Northern India .............................................................................................................................................. 33 Drivers and dynamics of bioenergy driven land use change in Southern Africa ............................................................................................................................................ 33

Second Plenary Session ................................................................................................................... 34

Index GCI Conference December 2010, Bonn

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Large rivers under stress (invited presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages between river basins and the earth system) ................................................................. 34 Water governance - A multi-level challenge (invited presentation to topic: Influence of global and national governance on water resources in river basins) ......................................................................................................................................... 34

First Poster Session ......................................................................................................................... 35

Effect of land use and erosion by water on soil carbon stock at catchment scale ............................................................................................................................................ 35 Impact of irrigated agriculture development on desertification process in Aral Sea basin ..................................................................................................................................... 35 Trends in 20th century global rainfall interception as simulated by a dynamic global vegetation model - Implications for global water resources ............................................. 36 Blue and green virtual water content, flows and water footprint under present and climate change conditions .................................................................................................... 37 Water resource management in Indo-Nepal fringe - Need of joint long-term governmental resolutions ............................................................................................................ 37 Abstractions of real and virtual water from the Rio Biobío basin (Chile) - Extent, interactions and governance ........................................................................................... 37 Land cover change in the Okavango river basin during the Angolan civil war ........................... 38 River flow projection in a changing climate ................................................................................. 38 A comparative overview of nutrients transport to the sea from three major rivers in China .............................................................................................................................. 39 Influence of solar activity on river flow formation in the north hemisphere (exemplified by the Rhine River) ................................................................................................. 39 Environmental and socio-economic issues associated with the impact of climate change on the river basins of India ................................................................................. 40 Impact of climate change on Lower Niger basin water system ................................................... 41 Reservoir desiltation and its impacts on wetland water quality - A case study ........................... 41 Anthropogenic and climate change effects on water quantity / quality of lakes - An assessment in the region of West Macedonia ..................................................................... 42 Climate change and hydrological response in the Agano River basin, Japan ............................ 42 Study on the trend detection of the river flow in the Zayandehrud dam basin ............................ 43 Hydrological changes in the Mediterranean zone - Impacts of environmental modifications (changing climate) in the Merguellil catchment (central Tunisia) .......................... 43 Problem of river erosion and role of government - A case study of Ganga river basin in Murshidabad district of West Bengal, India ........................................................... 44

Third Plenary Session ...................................................................................................................... 44

Connectivities and linkages within the Danube basin (invited presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages within river basins) ................................................................ 44 Physical heterogeneity and socio-economic differences as determinants of change in the Danube basin (invited presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages within river basins) ........................................................................................................ 45 Connectivities and linkages within the Volta Basin (invited presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages within river basins) ................................................................ 46 Impacts of National and International Actors on River Basin Cooperation - The Case of the River Rhine (invited presentation to topic: Impacts of national and international actors on river basin processes) ........................................................ 47


The impact of water pricing in an arid river basin in Morocco considering the conjunctive use of ground- and surface water, water quality aspects and climate change ............................................................................................................................ 47


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Implications of climate change and socio-economic development on future states of global freshwater resources .......................................................................................... 48 Interpreting global hydrological changes from climate model projections ................................... 48 Impacts of climate change on rainfed agriculture in a semi-arid zone - A case study from Sudan ......................................................................................................................... 49 Impact of global change on hydrology and soil degradation - Scenario analysis for the semi-arid Drâa catchment (South Morocco) ....................................................... 49 Quantifying the impact of climate change on water resources at the basin scale on five continents - A unified approach .............................................................................. 50 Impact of global change on water resources in the Ouémé catchment, Benin ........................... 51 Downscaling rainfall in the Blue Nile basin for use in hydrological modeling .............................. 51

Connectivities and linkages within river basins ................................................................................. 52

Optimal water allocation in the Middle Olifants sub-basin of South Africa - Implications for improving water use efficiency............................................................................ 52 Analysis of hydrologic alterations in the rapidly changing environment in the Pearl River Delta, South China .................................................................................................... 52 Climate change adaptation in river basins - Cross-scale connectivities in climate impacts and socio-economic uncertainties ...................................................................... 53 High resolution mapping of global reservoirs and dams and their downstream river impacts ............................................................................................................ 53 Climate variability, population pressure, and water availability in the Lake Chad basin ................................................................................................................................... 54 Effect of socio-economic development and climate change scenarios to the Oder river - modelling future nutrient emissions .......................................................................... 54

Influence of global and national governance on water resources in river basins ............................. 55

Cross-scale coordination through integrated water governance - Comparison of experiences on appropriate institutional architectures from different countries ....................................................................................................................................... 55 Multilateral Environmental Agreements - A Catalyst for Interlinkages in River Basin Management? A Case Study of Pahang River Basin, Malaysia ........................................ 55 Water governance in South Africa - global vs. local, legality vs. reality ....................................... 56 Regional common concern - The normative basis of global water security ................................ 56 Water governance and payments for hydrological ecosystem services - National experiences in sustainable natural resource management from Central America ........................................................................................................................... 57

Impacts of national and international actors on river basin processes / Virtual water flows between river basins ...................................................................................................... 58

Application of cooperative game theory in the Orange-Senqu river basin .................................. 58 Biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems - Status, trends, pressures, and conservation priorities .................................................................................................................. 58 Adaptation to climate change - Strategies and challenges for the Volta basin ............................ 58 International virtual water flows and water footprints of nations - A grid-based assessment .................................................................................................................................. 59 A model-based estimation of global virtual water flow and sources of water withdrawal .................................................................................................................................... 60

Fourth Plenary Session ..................................................................................................................... 60

Climatic and hydrological consequences of the large scale land use changes due to biofuel and soy bean production In the Amazon and Parana-La Plata Basins in South America (inv. presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages within river basins) ......................................................................................................... 60

Index GCI Conference December 2010, Bonn

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The Lake Winnipeg Basin - Confronting cultural eutrophication with new narratives for socio-ecological transformation (invited presentation to topic: Virtual water flows between river basins) .................................................................................... 60 Virtual water flows - Methods of water accounting and examples (invited presentation to topic: Virtual water flows between river basins) ................................................. 61

Second Poster Session .................................................................................................................... 61

Water resources planning and management regions - New insights and a suggested approach for defining water resources regions considering socio-economic, political and environmental linkages .......................................................................... 61 Development of an evaluation model for water and material cycles in catchments of East Asia .............................................................................................................. 62 River-floodplain exchange and nutrient and carbon cycling in the dam-impacted Kafue River (Zambia) ................................................................................................... 63 Transboundary waters and its security in the Middle East - As a case study the Euphrates and Tigris rivers ................................................................................................... 63 Development of future climate projections at high temporal and spatial resolutions ................................................................................................................................... 64 The ecological evaluation of the Debed river and its watershed basin in Armenia ....................................................................................................................................... 65 Trend changes detection of precipitation and temperature - A case study in Isfahan Province .......................................................................................................................... 65


Hydrologic risk transfer models as adapting strategies to water quality vulnerability scenarios of climate change .................................................................................... 66 Diverse impacts of climate change on streamflow in Alberta, Canada ....................................... 66 Hydrologic impacts of climate change in agricultural watersheds ............................................... 67 Connecting demand and resource driven water balance modelling with regional climate and land-use models in the Jordan river basin ................................................. 67 Modeling impact of climate change on hydrology of the Brahmani river basin, India ............................................................................................................................................. 68 Impacts of climate change on discharge in a highly glacierized catchment in the Alps ........................................................................................................................................ 69 Global litter decomposition patterns in streams - Implications for climate change ......................................................................................................................................... 69

Influence of global and national governance on water resources in river basins ............................. 69

The state of the global water system - A pilot study on indicators for operational monitoring of water resources .................................................................................. 69 Global Influences on RBO sustainability - The Mekong as case study ....................................... 70 The influence of international water governance on water management in Zambia. ........................................................................................................................................ 70 Global Water Governance and the UN System .......................................................................... 71 Recent water use changes in the Yellow River basin and their driving forces ........................... 71

Impacts of national and international actors on river basin processes ............................................ 72

Impacts of the governmental water policy on land use and streamflow in the arid Heihe River Watershed, Northwest China ........................................................................... 72 Access points to decision makers for transnational NGO-networks - The case of Ilisu dam in Turkey .......................................................................................................... 72 The impact of global actors and paradigms on river basin processes - A Mongolian case study .................................................................................................................. 73 Asymmetry and accountability deficits in water governance as inhibitors of effective water resource management ........................................................................................ 73


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Enhancing adaptive capacity through well-managed aquaculture integrated with small-scale irrigation in the Chinyanja Triangle in Africa ...................................................... 74

Closing Plenary Session ................................................................................................................... 75

Water resource vulnerability & adaptation management to climate change & human activity in North China (invited presentation to topic: Impacts of large scale land use patterns and demographic changes) ................................................................... 75

Author Index ........................................................................................................................................... 77

Personal notes........................................................................................................................................ 79

GCI Conference December 2010, Bonn TimeTABLE

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TIMETABLE

09:00 - 11:00 Opening Plenary Session (OPS) Monday 6th December 2010 Chair: Claudia Pahl-Wostl Room 1: Wolfgang Paul Saal

09:00 - 09:05 Welcome and Opening (Claudia Pahl-Wostl: GWSP-SSC Co-chair, Osnabrück, Germany)

09:05 - 09:10 Welcome and Opening (Janos Bogardi: GWSP-IPO Executive Officer, Bonn, Germany)

09:10 - 09:30 Objectives and Expectations from the Conference - Introductory statements (Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Janos Bogardi, Mike Müller)

09:30 - 10:15 OPS-001 Challenges of climate change impacts in Africa, exemplified by the case of the South African water sector - Where from? Where now? Where to in future? (invited presentation to topic: Climate change impact on river basins) R.E. Schulze (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa)

10:15 - 11:00 OPS-002 A global geography of rivers in crisis - Human and biodiversity perspectives (invited presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages between river basins and the earth system) B. Fekete (The Environmental Cross-Roads Initiative, The City College of New York, New York, USA)

11:00 - 11:30 Coffee break (CB) Monday 6th December 2010 Room: Luigi Pirandello Bistro

11:30 - 13:15 Climate change impacts on river basins (CCI1) Monday 6th December 2010 Chair: Irina Forkutsa, Rapporteur: Bernd Diekkrüger (CCI) Room 1: Wolfgang Paul Saal

11:30 - 11:45 CCI1-003 Promotion of rain cities for climate change adaptation in a river basin M.Y. Han (Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

11:45 - 12:00 CCI1-004 Future global water resources with respect to climate change and water withdrawals S.J. Murray (University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom)

TimeTABLE GCI Conference December 2010, Bonn

10 as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37

12:00 - 12:15 CCI1-005 Evaluating hydroclimatic impacts of climate change in the Upper Blue Nile river basin S.S. Demissie (International Water Management Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)

12:15 - 12:30 CCI1-006 Estimating green-blue water availability and needs for global food production D. Gerten (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany)

12:30 - 12:45 CCI2-044 The impact of water pricing in an arid river basin in Morocco considering the conjunctive use of ground- and surface water, water quality aspects and climate change C. Heidecke (Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, Germany)

12:45 - 13:00 CCI1-007 Impact of global change on large river basins - Example of the Yellow river basin N. Cenacchi (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, USA)

13:00 - 13:15 CCI1-008 Bias correction of climate model data - The golden solution for impact models or cursed black magic? S. Hagemann (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany)

11:30 - 12:45 Connectivities and linkages between river basins and the earth system (CLB) Monday 6th December 2010 Chair: Hans Peter Nachtnebel, Rapporteur: Richard Lawford (CLB) Room 4: Paul Martini Seminarraum

11:30 - 11:45 CLB-009 Europe, the meta-catchment? Homogenization of the freshwater fish fauna across Europe. N. Sommerwerk (Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany)

11:45 - 12:00 CLB-010 Resilience of river basins under global change H. Hoff (Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden)

12:00 - 12:15 CLB-011 Water resources in a river basin context to be managed in a way that they deliver greatest benefit to all and in the long run - comparative analysis at global scale G. Klein (Water Strategy Initiative Office, Bonn, Germany)

12:15 - 12:30 CLB-012 Scale problems of global irrigation simulations A. Schumann (Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie, Wasserwirtschaft und Umwelttechnik, Bochum, Germany)

12:30 - 12:45 CLB-013 Hydrologic drought in western Canada - Its detection, characterization, impacts and challenges R. Lawford (University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada)


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11:30 - 12:45 Impacts of large-scale land use patterns and demographic changes (LUP) Monday 6th December 2010 Chair: Hong Yang, Rapporteur: Konrad Vielhauer (LUP) Room 3: Ernst Robert Curtius Konferenzraum

11:30 - 11:45 LUP-014 Competing claims for water in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia - Global drivers and local opportunities H. Hengsdijk (Plant Research International, Wageningen Univesity and Research Center, Wageningen, The Netherlands)

11:45 - 12:00 LUP-015 Regional responses to the global change: drivers for changes in social - ecological systems in the Amudarya River Basin D. Hirsch (UNU-EHS, Bonn, Germany)

12:00 - 12:15 LUP-016 Effect of changing anthropogenic and climate conditions on BOD loading and in-stream water quality in Europe A. Voss (CESR, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany)

12:15 - 12:30 LUP-017 High noon - Adaptation to changing water resources availability in Northern India H. Biemans (Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, the Netherlands)

12:30 - 12:45 LUP-018 Drivers and dynamics of bioenergy driven land use change in Southern Africa S. Stuart-Hill (School of Bioresources Engineering and Environmental Hydrology, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa)

11:30 - 13:00 Workshop 1 (WS1) Monday 6th December 2010 Moderator: Claudia Pahl-Wostl Room 5: Ernst Friesenhahn Tagungsraum

11:30 - 13:00 Twin2Go Workshop: Coordinating Twinning partnerships towards more adaptive Governance in river basins (read more)

http://www.gwsp.org/fileadmin/GCI_conference/Twin2Go_Workshop_GCI_Conference.pdf


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13:00 - 14:00 Lunch (LB) Monday 6th December 2010 Rooms 2 & 3: Josef Schumpeter Sitzungssraum & Ernst Robert Curtius Konferenzraum

14:00 - 15:30 Second Plenary Session (SPS) Monday 6th December 2010 Chair: Andreas Schumann Room 1: Wolfgang Paul Saal

14:00 - 14:30 SPS-019 Large rivers under stress (invited presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages between river basins and the earth system) K. Tockner (Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany)

14:30 - 15:00 SPS-021 Water governance - A multi-level challenge (invited presentation to topic: Influence of global and national governance on water resources in river basins) C. Pahl-Wostl (Institute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück, Osnabrück, Germany)

15:30 - 16:00 Coffee break (CB) Monday 6th December 2010 Room: Luigi Pirandello Bistro

16:00 - 17:00 First Panel Discussion (PD) Monday 6th December 2010 Moderator: David Groenfeldt1; Panelists: Janos Bogardi2, Maarten Hofstra3 (tbc), Peter Mollinga4, Claudia Pahl-Wostl5, Lida Schelwald-van der Kley6, Lucilla Spini7, Saravanan Subramanian8, Room 1: Wolfgang Paul Saal

16:00 - 17:00 Water ethics as basis for sustainable water resource governance and management

1 Director: Water and Culture Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA 2 Executive Officer, GWSP-IPO 3 Senior Advisor Policy Analysis and Water Governance, UNESCO-IHE 4 Professor of Development Studies: School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), London, UK 5 Professor for Resources Management, University of Osnabrück, GWSP SSC Co-chair 6 Consultant of Envision-S, Author of the book: Water - A Way of Life, member of the Executive Board of a Dutch Regional Water Authority 7 Project Officer, Global Environmental Change and Human (GECHH), UNU-INWEH 8 Senior Scientist: Center for Development Research (ZEF), Dep. of Political and Cultural Change


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17:00 - 18:30 First Poster Session (PS1) Monday 6th December 2010 Chair: Hong Yang Room 1: Wolfgang Paul Saal

17:00 - 17:05 PS1-022 Effect of land use and erosion by water on soil carbon stock at catchment scale K. Nosrati (Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran)

17:05 - 17:10 PS1-023 Impact of irrigated agriculture development on desertification process in Aral Sea basin M. Yacubov (Institute of Water Problems, Tashkent, Uzbekistan)

17:10 - 17:15 PS1-024 Trends in 20th century global rainfall interception as simulated by a dynamic global vegetation model - Implications for global water resources S.J. Murray (University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom)

17:15 - 17:20 PS1-025 Blue and green virtual water flows and water footprints M. Fader (PIK, Potsdam, Germany)

17:20 - 17:25 PS1-026 Water resource management in Indo-Nepal fringe - Need of joint long-term governmental resolutions N.M.P. Verma (Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow, India)

17:25 - 17:30 PS1-027 Abstractions of real and virtual water from the Rio Biobío basin (Chile) - Extent, interactions and governance M. Pusch (Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries [IGB], Berlin, Germany)

17:30 - 17:35 PS1-028 Land cover change in the Okavango river basin during the Angolan civil war J.C.M. Andersson (Eawag - Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland)

17:35 - 17:40 PS1-029 River flow projection in a changing climate M. Bogdani-Ndini (Institute of Energy, Water and Environment, Tirane, Albania)

17:40 - 17:45 PS1-030 A comparative overview of nutrients transport to the sea from three major rivers in China Xie. Lichun (School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China)

17:45 - 17:50 PS1-031 Influence of solar activity on river flow formation in the north hemisphere (exemplified by the Rhine River) Nurtayev B.S. (Rhein-Erft Academy, Hürth, Germany)

17:50 - 17:55 PS1-032 Environmental and socio-economic issues associated with the impact of climate change on the river basins of India K.S. Nair (Nansen Environmental Research Centre India, Kochi, India)

17:55 - 18:00 PS1-033 Impact of climate change on Lower Niger basin water system O. Adeaga (University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria)


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18:00 - 18:05 PS1-034 Reservoir desiltation and its impacts on wetland water quality - A case study J.S. Paimpillil (Center for Earth Research and Environment Management, Kerala, India)

18:05 - 18:10 PS1-035 Anthropogenic and climate change effects on water quantity / quality of lakes - An assessment in the region of West Macedonia M. Stefouli (Institute of Geology and Mineral Exploration, Athens, Greece)

18:10 - 18:15 PS1-036 Climate change and hydrological response in the Agano River basin, Japan X. Ma (Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan)

18:15 - 18:20 PS1-037 Study on the trend detection of the river flow in the Zayandehrud dam basin M.R. Yazdani (PhD student of Climatology, Department of Climatology, University of Isfahan, Iran)

18:20 - 18:25 PS1-038 Hydrological changes in the Mediterranean zone - Impacts of environmental modifications (changing climate) in the Merguellil catchment (central Tunisia) B. Chulli (Water Researches and Technologies Center, Borj Cedria Technopark, Soliman, Tunisia)

18:25 - 18:30 PS1-039 Problem of river erosion and role of government - A case study of Ganga river basin in Murshidabad district of West Bengal, India S. Bose (Political Geography Division of Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India)

18:30 - 20:00 Icebreaker (IB) Monday 6th December 2010 Room: Foyer

09:00 - 11:00 Third Plenary Session (TPS) Tuesday 7th December 2010 Chair: Roland Schulze Room 1: Wolfgang Paul Saal

09:00 - 09:30 TPS-040 Connectivities and linkages within the Danube basin (invited presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages within river basins) W. Mauser (Department of Geography, Ludwigs-Maximilians-University Munich, Munich, Germany)

09:30 - 10:00 TPS-041 Physical heterogeneity and socio-economic differences as determinants of change in the Danube basin (invited presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages within river basins) H.P. Nachtnebel (Universität für Bodenkultur, Wien, Austria)

10:00 - 10:30 TPS-042 Connectivities and linkages within the Volta Basin (invited presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages within river basins) Charles A. Biney (Volta Basin Authority, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)


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10:30 - 11:00 FPS-069 Impacts of National and International Actors on River Basin Cooperation - The Case of the River Rhine (invited presentation to topic: Impacts of national and international actors on river basin processes) J. Leentvaar (UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands and Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment)

11:00 - 11:30 Coffee break (CB) Tuesday 7th December 2010 Room: Luigi Pirandello Bistro

11:30 - 13:15 Climate change impacts on river basins (CCI2) Tuesday 7th December 2010 Chair: Wolfram Mauser, Rapporteur: Dieter Gerten (CCI) Room 1: Wolfgang Paul Saal

11:30 - 11:45 CCI2-045 Implications of climate change and socio-economic development on future states of global freshwater resources F. Voß (Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany)

11:45 - 12:00 CCI2-046 Interpreting global hydrological changes from climate model projections F.C. Sperna Weiland (Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands)

12:00 - 12:15 CCI2-047 Impacts of climate change on rainfed agriculture in a semi-arid zone - A case study from Sudan M. Sh. Ahmed (Water Management and Irrigation Institute, University of Gezira, Wadmedani, Sudan)

12:15 - 12:30 CCI2-048 Impact of global change on hydrology and soil degradation - Scenario analysis for the semi-arid Drâa catchment (South Morocco) B. Diekkrüger (Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Germany)

12:30 - 12:45 CCI2-049 Quantifying the impact of climate change on water resources at the basin scale on five continents - A unified approach M.C. Todd (Department of Geography, University of Sussex, UK)

12:45 - 13:00 CCI2-050a Impact of global change on water resources in the Ouémé catchment, Benin S. Giertz (Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Germany)

13:00 - 13:15 CCI2-050b Downscaling rainfall in the Blue Nile basin for use in hydrological modeling Menker, M. (Department of Earth Sciences, Freie University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany)


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11:30 - 13:00 Connectivities and linkages within river basins (CLW) Tuesday 7th December 2010 Chair: Klement Tockner, Rapporteur: Hong Yang (CLW) Room 4: Paul Martini Seminarraum

11:30 - 11:45 CLW-051 Optimal water allocation in the Middle Olifants sub-basin of South Africa - Implications for improving water use efficiency D. Tsegai (ZEF, Bonn, Germany)

11:45 - 12:00 CLW-052 Analysis of hydrologic alterations in the rapidly changing environment in the Pearl River Delta, South China Y.D. Chen (Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China)

12:00 - 12:15 CLW-053 Climate change adaptation in river basins - Cross-scale connectivities in climate impacts and socio-economic uncertainties S.C. van Pelt (Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands)

12:15 - 12:30 CLW-054 High resolution mapping of global reservoirs and dams and their downstream river impacts B. Lehner (McGill University, Montreal, Canada)

12:30 - 12:45 CLW-055 Climate variability, population pressure, and water availability in the Lake Chad basin S. Vassolo (Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover, Germany)

12:45 - 13:00 CLW-056 Effect of socio-economic development and climate change scenarios to the Oder river - modelling future nutrient emissions J. Hürdler (Leibniz-Institue of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany)

11:30 - 12:45 Influence of global and national governance on water resources in river basins (GOV1) Tuesday 7th December 2010 Chair: NN, Rapporteur: Joyeeta Gupta (GOV) Room 5: Ernst Friesenhahn Tagungsraum

11:30 - 11:45 GOV1-057 Cross-scale coordination through integrated water governance - Comparison of experiences on appropriate institutional architectures from different countries J. Balsiger (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürich, Switzerland)

11:45 - 12:00 GOV1-058 Multilateral Environmental Agreements - A Catalyst for Interlinkages in River Basin Management? A Case Study of Pahang River Basin, Malaysia J. Lee (UNESCO Centre for Water Law, Policy and Science, Dundee University, Dundee, United Kingdom)


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12:00 - 12:15 GOV1-059 Water governance in South Africa - global vs. local, legality vs. reality S. I. Stuart-Hill (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa)

12:15 - 12:30 GOV1-060 Regional common concern - The normative basis of global water security B.-O. Magsig (University of Dundee, Dundee, United Kingdom)

12:30 - 12:45 GOV1-061 Water governance and payments for hydrological ecosystem services - National experiences in sustainable natural resource management from Central America J. Hack (Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Section of Engineering Hydrology and Water Resources Management, TU Darmstadt)

11:30 - 12:45 Impacts of national and international actors on river basin processes / Virtual water flows between river basins (ACT1/VWB) Tuesday 7th December 2010 Chair: Charles Biney, Rapporteurs: Anik Bhaduri (ACT), Lena Horlemann (VWB) Room 3: Ernst Robert Curtius Konferenzraum

11:30 - 11:45 ACT1/VWB-062 Application of cooperative game theory in the Orange-Senqu river basin C. von Hirschhausen (TU Dresden, Dresden, Germany)

11:45 - 12:00 ACT1/VWB-063 Biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems - Status, trends, pressures, and conservation priorities J. Freyhof (Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany)

12:00 - 12:15 ACT1/VWB-064 Adaptation to climate change - Strategies and challenges for the Volta basin E. Youkhana (Center for Development Research, Bonn, Germany)

12:15 - 12:30 ACT1/VWB-065 International virtual water flows and water footprints of nations - A grid-based assessment M.M. Mekonnen (University of Twente, Twente Water Centre, Netherlands)


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13:00 - 14:00 Lunch (LB) Tuesday 7th December 2010 Rooms 2 & 3: Josef Schumpeter Sitzungssraum & Ernst Robert Curtius Konferenzraum

14:00 - 15:30 Fourth Plenary Session (FPS) Tuesday 7th December 2010 Chair: Janos Bogardi Room 1: Wolfgang Paul Saal

14:00 - 14:30 TPS-043 Climatic and hydrological consequences of the large scale land use changes due to biofuel and soy bean production In the Amazon and Parana-La Plata Basins in South America (inv. presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages within river basins) J.A. Marengo (Earth System Science Center-National Institute for Space Research, São Paulo, Brazil)

14:30 - 15:00 FPS-067 The Lake Winnipeg Basin - Confronting cultural eutrophication with new narratives for socio-ecological transformation (invited presentation to topic: Virtual water flows between river basins) R. Lawford (University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada)

15:00 - 15:30 FPS-068 Virtual water flows - Methods of water accounting and examples (invited presentation to topic: Virtual water flows between river basins) H. Yang (Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, Switzerland)


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15:30 - 16:00 Coffee break (CB) Tuesday 7th December 2010 Room: Luigi Pirandello Bistro

16:00 - 18:00 Second Panel Discussion (SPD) Tuesday 7th December 2010 Moderators: Mike Muller9, Janos Bogardi10; Panelists: Charles Biney11, Joyeeta Gupta12, Hans Peter Nachtnebel 13, Hubert Onibon14 (tbc), Benoit Rossignol15, Thomas Stratenwerth16, Room 1: Wolfgang Paul Saal

16:00 - 18:00 Dialogue between scientists and river basin managers

18:00 - 18:35 Second Poster Session (PS2) Tuesday 7th December 2010 Chair: Jens Liebe Room 1: Wolfgang Paul Saal

18:00 - 18:05 PS2-070 Water resources planning and management regions - New insights and a suggested approach for defining water resources regions considering socio-economic, political and environmental linkages A.C. Coelho (Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States)

18:05 - 18:10 PS2-071 Development of an evaluation model for water and material cycles in catchments of East Asia Q.X. Wang (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan)

18:10 - 18:15 PS2-072 River-floodplain exchange and nutrient and carbon cycling in the dam-impacted Kafue River (Zambia) DB. Senn (Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH-Zürich, Zürich Switzerland)

18:15 - 18:20 PS2-073 Transboundary waters and its security in the Middle East - As a case study the Euphrates and Tigris rivers A. Bulent (Anadolu University, Eskisehir, Turkey)

18:20 - 18:25 PS2-074 Development of future climate projections at high temporal and spatial resolutions C. Tisseuil (UMR BOREA, Paris, France)

9 (GWP-TEC); Graduate School of Public and Development Management, Witwatersrand University, Johannesburg South Africa) 10 Executive Officer, GWSP-IPO 11 Director: Volta Basin Authority (VBA) 12 Professor: Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands 13 Director: Institut für Wasserwirtschaft, Hydrologie und konstruktiven Wasserbau, Universität für Bodenkultur, Wien, Austria 14 Regional Project Coordinator: Volta River Basin Project UNEP/GEF – UNOPS, GEF Volta Project 15 Directeur du développement et des relations extérieures, Établissement Public Loire 16 Referat WA I 1 Allgemeine, grundsätzliche sowie internationale und europäische Angelegenheiten der Wasserwirtschaft, Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit (BMU)


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18:25 - 18:30 PS2-075 The ecological evaluation of the Debed river and its watershed basin in Armenia A. Danielyan (Yerevan State University, Yerevan, Armenia)

18:30 - 18:35 PS2-076 Trend changes detection of precipitation and temperature - A case study in Isfahan Province A. Rafiaei (Agriculture and Natural Resources Center, Isfahan, Iran)

19:00 – 00:00 Conference Dinner (CD) Tuesday 7th December 2010 Room: Restaurant Da Capo

09:00 - 10:45 Climate change impacts on river basins (CCI3) Wednesday 8th December 2010 Chair: Bernd Diekkrüger, Rapporteur: Frank Voß (CCI, tbc) Room 1: Wolfgang Paul Saal

09:00 - 09:15 CCI3-077 Hydrologic risk transfer models as adapting strategies to water quality vulnerability scenarios of climate change M. Mendiondo (University of Sao Paulo, Sao Carlos, Brazil)

09:15 - 09:30 CCI3-078 Diverse impacts of climate change on streamflow in Alberta, Canada S.W. Kienzle (Departmentt. of Geography, University. of Lethbridge, Canada)

09:30 - 09:45 CCI3-079 Hydrologic impacts of climate change in agricultural watersheds K. P. Sudheer (Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, India)

09:45 - 10:00 CCI3-080 Connecting demand and resource driven water balance modelling with regional climate and land-use models in the Jordan river basin H. Hoff (Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany)

10:00 - 10:15 CCI3-081 Modeling impact of climate change on hydrology of the Brahmani river basin, India A. K. Sikka (National Rainfed Area Authority, New Delhi, India)

10:15 - 10:30 CCI3-082 Impacts of climate change on discharge in a highly glacierized catchment in the Alps B. Uhlmann (University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland)

10:30 - 10:45 CCI3-083 Global litter decomposition patterns in streams - Implications for climate change M.O. Gessner (Department of Aquatic Ecology, Eawag / ETH, Dubendorf, Switzerland)


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09:00 - 10:15 Influence of global and national governance on water resources in river basins (GOV2) Wednesday 8th December 2010 Chair: Günter Klein, Rapporteur: Joyeeta Gupta (GOV) Room 3: Ernst Robert Curtius Konferenzraum

09:00 - 09:15 GOV2-084 The state of the global water system - A pilot study on indicators for operational monitoring of water resources B. Fekete (City College of New York, New York, United States)

09:15 - 09:30 GOV2-085 Global Influences on RBO sustainability - The Mekong as case study B. Affeltranger (UNU-EHS, Bonn, Germany)

09:30 - 09:45 GOV2-086 The influence of international water governance on water management in Zambia. J.M. Kampata (Department of Water Affairs, Lusaka, Zambia)

09:45 - 10:00 GOV2-087 Global Water Governance and the UN System J. Gupta (Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands)

10:00 - 10:15 GOV2-088 Recent water use changes in the Yellow River basin and their driving forces H. Yang (Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland)

09:00 - 10:30 Impacts of national and international actors on river basin processes (ACT2) Wednesday 8th December 2010 Chair: Christian von Hirschhausen, Rapporteur: Anik Bhaduri (ACT), NN (VWB) Room 4: Paul Martini Seminarraum

09:00 - 09:15 ACT2-089 Impacts of the governmental water policy on land use and streamflow in the arid Heihe River Watershed, Northwest China C. He (Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, Michigan, U.S.A.)

09:15 - 09:30 ACT2-090 Access points to decision makers for transnational NGO-networks - The case of Ilisu dam in Turkey A. Atzl (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology - Institute of Regional Science, Karlsruhe, Germany)

09:30 - 09:45 ACT2-091 The impact of global actors and paradigms on river basin processes - A Mongolian case study L. Horlemann (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany)

09:45 - 10:00 ACT2-092 Asymmetry and accountability deficits in water governance as inhibitors of effective water resource management M. Muller (GWP-TEC); Graduate School of Public and Development Management, Witwatersrand University, Johannesburg South Africa)


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10:00 - 10:15 ACT2-093 Enhancing adaptive capacity through well-managed aquaculture integrated with small-scale irrigation in the Chinyanja Triangle in Africa J. Krywkow (USF, University of Osnabrück, Germany)

10:15 - 10:30 ACT1/VWB-066 A model-based estimation of global virtual water flow and sources of water withdrawal N. Hanasaki (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba-City Ibaraki, Japan)

09:00 - 10:30 Workshop 2 (WS2) Wednesday 8th December 2010 Moderator: David Groenfeldt Room 5: Ernst Friesenhahn Tagungsraum

09:00 - 10:30 Water Ethics as a Basis for Sustainable Water Resources Governance and Management (read more)

10:30 - 11:00 Coffee break (CB) Wednesday 8th December 2010 Room: Luigi Pirandello Bistro

11:00 - 14:00 Closing Plenary Session (CPS) Wednesday 8th December 2010 Chair: Charles Vörösmarty Room 1: Wolfgang Paul Saal

11:00 - 11:35 Catchments of Great Lakes plus UN Water perspective (invited presentation to topic: Impacts of national and international actors on river basin processes) Z. Adeel (UNU-INWEH and UN-Water, Hamilton)

11:35 - 12:05 CPS-094 Water resource vulnerability & adaptation management to climate change & human activity in North China (invited presentation to topic: Impacts of large scale land use patterns and demographic changes) J. Xia (Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China)

12:05 - 13:15 7 short reports by the topic rapporteurs Bernd Diekkrüger, Richard Lawford, Konrad Vielhauer, Hong Yang, Falk Schmidt, Holger Hoff, Joyeeta Gupta, Dieter Gerten

13:15 - 13:35 2 short summaries by panel moderators David Groenfeldt, Mike Muller

13:35 - 14:00 Summary, Outlook and Closing Remarks Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Janos Bogardi

14:00 - 15:00 Lunch (LB) Wednesday 8th December 2010 Rooms 2 & 3: Josef Schumpeter Sitzungssraum & Ernst Robert Curtius Konferenzraum

http://www.gwsp.org/fileadmin/GCI_conference/Ethics_Panel-Agenda.pdf


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Abstracts GCI Conference December 2010, Bonn

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ABSTRACTS

OPENING PLENARY SESSION

OPS-001

Challenges of climate change impacts in Africa, exemplified by the case of the South African water sector - Where from? Where now? Where to in future? (invited presentation to topic: Climate change impact on river basins) R.E. Schulze

University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa

To do justice to assessing projected impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies across a continent straddling 70° latitude on which administrative boundaries with strong colonial footprints cross natural and linguistic ones, and where individual countries already display vast diversity, is a task ending in a series of “motherhood” statements which do not make meaningful contributions to policy makers or vulnerable communities. Having illustrated the above, the presentation focuses on South Africa - a highly diverse country socio-economically and physiographically, with characteristics of the developed world juxtaposed on those of the lesser developed world. This country has nevertheless developed sophisticated water legislation the implementation of which is proving difficult.

It is against this backdrop that one asks “where now?” when climate change is superimposed onto the water scene. In appreciating the dynamics of climate change on the water sector, an appropriate hydrological model (ACRU) is used to account in detail for the landscape, channel and ecological components of the hydrological system under climate change, the results of which underpin adaptation strategies. Additionally, downscaling of daily output from the latest IPCC GCMs to over 2500 climate stations in South Africa has been linked to a configuration of nearly 6000 homogeneous hydrological response zones for impact assessments.

Key findings on projected climate change impacts are, first, those which one would expect. We have, however, been “conditioned” to expect certain impacts. Therefore, more importantly from a water resource perspective for the future, are the many “surprises” which the latest South African research has exposed, and which the literature has not, to date, identified, e.g. on projected patterns of soil water stress, water temperature, different types of drought, sediment yields, design hydrology and on uncertainty under climate change.

Looking into the future, South Africa faces a number of key issues in climate change adaptation. First, there is a need to mainstream climate change challenges into co-ordinated national strategies. Secondly, is the need to formalise a climate change adaptation strategy using principles which should stand the test of time. Thirdly, researchers need to address with more vigour higher order impacts of climate change (e.g. extremes, groundwater recharge, land use dynamics, water quality, terrestrial and aquatic ecological responses, conflicts over transboundary waters and vulnerability of the poor). A fourth issue is to address climate change impacts on complex operational, largely water engineered catchments.

The presentation concludes with a discussion on responsibilities of government, science, industry and commerce in a context of climate change and the water sector.

GCI Conference December 2010, Bonn Abstracts

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OPS-002

A global geography of rivers in crisis - Human and biodiversity perspectives (invited presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages between river basins and the earth system) C. Vörösmarty1, P.B. McIntyre2, M.O. Gessner3, D. Dudgeon4, A. Prusevich5, P. Green1, S. Glidden5, S.E. Bunn6, C.A. Sullivan7, C.R. Liermann8, P.M. Davies9 1The Environmental Cross-Roads Initiative The City College of New York, New York, USA, 2School of Natural Resources & Environment University of Michigan, Michigan, USA, 3Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science & Technology and Institute of Integrative Biology, Zurich, Switzerland, 4Division of Ecology & Biodiversity School of Biological Sciences The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China, 5Water Systems Analysis Group University of New Hampshire, Durham, USA, 6Australian Rivers Institute Griffith University, Nathan, Australia, 7School of Environmental Science and Management Southern Cross University, Lismore, Australia, 8School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington, Seattle, USA, 9Centre of Excellence in Natural Resource Management The University of Western Australia, Albany, Australia

Fresh water plays myriad roles in the Earth system and provides essential services to society, yet its integrity is being profoundly reshaped by humans. Using a new geospatial approach, we demonstrate using a high resolution spatial mapping and database framework a pervasive and pandemic imprint of anthropogenic activity on river systems that threatens both human water security and aquatic biodiversity. Additional analysis of the spatial patterns of investments in water infrastructure and services reveals a highly polarised world, in which water security is assured for those living in developed countries, while the poor remain in a vulnerable state. Comparable levels of investment in river protection and restoration are lacking in rich and poor countries alike, helping to explain the observed widespread declines in freshwater biodiversity. Mapping and understanding the nature of freshwater threats is now sufficient to make protection of both human water security and biodiversity less a technical challenge than one of societal resolve. While this paper presents results over the fully global domain, we will highlight more regional, basin-scale outputs to highlight the use of this information in an environmental planning and management context.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON RIVER BASINS

CCI1-003

Promotion of rain cities for climate change adaptation in a river basin C.H. Park1, M.Y. Han2 1The national academy of sciences, Seoul, Republic of Korea, 2Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Climate change affects a river basin through the increased risk of flooding and drought, mountain fires, and so on. Adaptation measures have traditionally been made using a centralized system, which solves a single problem with a small number of large systems. However, this approach is too time and cost inefficient to ensure basin-wide safety. A new multipurpose and decentralized paradigm of rainwater management, using a large number of small systems, is needed.

Recently, the International Water Association (IWA) granted its Project Innovation Award (PIA) to a project proposed by one of the current authors entitled “Climate Change Adaptation through the Promotion of Rain Cities”. A rain city can be defined as a city in which all residents and politicians are aware of the importance of rainwater and have ensured that regulations are in place to collect and use it in a beneficial way instead of allowing it to drain away. Through promotion in mass media, 37 cities in South Korea have announced themselves to be rain cities. These cities focus on two objectives: 1) increasing their water independency ratios, and 2) trying to maintain their original water status. Achieving these objectives involves the cooperation of all stakeholders, which is gained by offering financial incentives and imposing compulsory requirements and technical guidelines for rainwater management facilities.

The success of a rain city is founded on reminding residents of what village (洞) means in the Korean language. The literal meaning is water (水) + same (同). By reminding all stakeholders that in a village of any size all residents depend on the same water, they can be induced to voluntarily undertake water conservation and pollution reduction activities. This concept can be applied to maintain the same water status before and after any development.


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There are several environmental and economic advantages of multipurpose decentralized rainwater management, such as a reduced risk of local flooding, a diversified water supply, energy saving, and an increase in biodiversity that eventually leads to environmentally sustainable cities. The technical challenge will be less than for a centralized system, because it will involve¬ a large number of small systems.

In this paper, simulation results on how local rain city initiatives can reduce the risk of climate change in the Han River basin will be presented for different scenarios of rain city promotion. The risk of local flooding and drought, and the likelihood of energy savings, at each stage of rain city promotion and achievement are calculated. Several examples how rainwater management can be helpful for climate change adaptation are presented.

CCI1-004

Future global water resources with respect to climate change and water withdrawals S.J. Murray1, I.C. Prentice2, P.N. Foster1, I.M. Watson1 1University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom, 2Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia

Reliable estimates of future global freshwater resources require robust simulation of the hydrological cycle and the subsequent extractions brought about by changing population, industrial and agricultural demands.

Climate change is expected to cause changes in vegetation distribution and function (for example, through changes in stomatal conductance induced by increasing concentrations of CO2), and thus these effects require incorporation into simulations of the hydrosphere. The Land Processes eXchange Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX-DGVM) is used to explicitly represent such biospheric processes, which are overlooked by traditional hydrological models, in order to output estimates of global runoff.

Assessments of future global and catchment-scale water supplies are conducted based on six GCM outputs and the ClimGen pattern-scaled climate scenarios for 1-4°C temperature warming, to force LPX for 2071-2100. Mean annual runoff is shown to increase throughout most of Eurasia, North America and the Equatorial regions, while the most significant decreases are forecast for the Mediterranean region, Central America the northern extent of South America, the Arabian peninsula and parts of China. GCMs typically agree on the direction of regional runoff trends, but show large discrepancies in the magnitude of change, especially in the tropics.

Relative to a 1961-1990 baseline, the 2071-2100 month of maximum runoff tends to occur a month earlier under 2°C warming in much of the northernmost regions, most likely due to decreased snow cover, and a month later in parts of Africa, east Asia and South America. For the same temperature increase, minimum runoff tends to occur up to half a year earlier in eastern Europe, typically four months earlier in parts of North America, and three months earlier in some parts of South America. In contrast, minimum runoff is shown to occur a month later in parts of Africa, other parts of South America, North America, China and Australia.

The effects of fixed versus transient CO2 are most widespread in the northern latitudes and the tropics, where decreases in stomatal conductance cause increasing runoff. In contrast, eastern India, central South America and parts of tropical Africa are simulated to undergo decreases in runoff.

Future water demands driven by socio-economic changes are addressed using the WaterGAP (Water-Global Assessment and Prognosis) hydrological model, forced via two GCMs and the A2 and B2 IPCC climate scenarios. Freshwater withdrawals increase throughout most of the world under both climate scenarios, except in Australia, the northern Sahel, central Asia, western Europe and parts of the USA.

Water stress indicators are subsequently applied in order to identify regions which are at risk from water shortages or surpluses as a result of these simulated climatic and socio-economic changes. This will help to inform the direction of global water resource management.


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CCI1-005

Evaluating hydroclimatic impacts of climate change in the Upper Blue Nile river basin S.S. Demissie1, M. McCartney1, S.B. Awulachew1, B.K. Gebru2, M.M. Girma3 1International Water Management Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2Arbaminch University, Arbaminch, Ethiopia, 3Department of Earth Sciences in Freie University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany

The Upper Blue Nile River basin, located in the Ethiopian highlands, contributes more than half of the Nile River flow at Aswan. The basin is characterized by ragged topography, diversified land use/cover and pronounced climate variability. The rainfall and river flow in the basin are highly seasonal with major rainfall occurring during the summer (Kiremt) and minor rainfall during the autumn (Belg) seasons. This study was conducted to determine climate drivers in the basin and to evaluate possible impacts of climate change on river flow.

Seasonal correlation analysis was used to investigate the interactions between daily rainfall properties at eight stations, situated in the basin, with global climate drivers of atmospheric circulation and moisture fields over tropical oceanic and land masses around Africa. The Kiremt rainfall properties of the high-altitude stations and the Belg rainfall properties of the low- and middle-altitude stations were found to be highly correlated with the ERA40 pressure, temperature, wind, and moisture fields. A similar correlation pattern was obtained between seasonal rainfall properties and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period of 1982-2001. The correlation analysis revealed that the relative dominance of global (large-scale circulation and moisture) and local (orography and land cover) climate drivers on the rainfall formation mechanism varies with season, altitude, and location within the river basin. Therefore, any technique for generation of future climate scenarios must consider both global and local climate drivers. Hence, in this study, the RegCM3 regional climate model, forced by ECHAM5 GCM outputs, land use/cover and topography, was used to dynamically downscale local climate variables to 50km resolution. In most parts of the basin, the future mean Belg rainfall is predicted to decrease while the future mean Kiremt rainfall is predicted to increase. The future temperature would rise in all seasons with the increase in the lowland parts of the basin being greater than in the highland areas.

A simple lumped monthly water balance model was modified to capture the seasonality of rainfall-runoff transformation in the basin. The modified monthly water balance model was applied to 26 watersheds scattered throughout the basin. Regression analyses were conducted to establish statistically significant relationships between the model parameters and bio-physical characteristics of the watersheds. These relationships were used to estimate model parameters at the grid points of the dynamic downscaling. The future runoffs at each grid points, and then at dam locations and major stream confluences, were estimated from gridded model parameters and downscaled and bias corrected climate variables. The future river flow scenarios show decreasing trends in most parts of the basin.

CCI1-006

Estimating green-blue water availability and needs for global food production D. Gerten, J. Heinke, H. Hoff

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

This modeling study compares, spatially explicitly and at global scale, per capita water availability and water requirements for food production, both for the present and for the future under climatic and demographic change (period 2070-2099). A global biosphere and water balance model (LPJmL) was used to calculate green and blue water availability per capita, water requirements to produce a balanced diet (3,000 kcal cap-1 d-1, consisting of 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products), and a new water scarcity indicator that relates the two at country (or basin) scale. A country (basin) was classified as being water-scarce if its water availability fell below the water requirement for the above-specified diet. This is presently the case especially in North and East Africa and in southern Asia. Under future climate (derived from 17 General Circulation Models) and socioeconomic change (A2 and B1 emissions and population scenarios), water availability per person is very likely to diminish in many regions. At the same time the calorie-specific water requirements tend to decrease, due mainly to the positive effect of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration on crop water productivity which, however, is unlikely to be fully realized in most regions. As a net effect of climate, CO2 and population change, hence, water scarcity will aggravate in many countries, and a number of additional countries are at risk of losing their present capacity to produce a balanced diet for their inhabitants.


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CCI1-007

Impact of global change on large river basins - Example of the Yellow river basin N. Cenacchi1, Z. Xu2, W. Yu3, C. Ringler1 1International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, USA, 2Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, 3Yellow River Engineering Consulting CO Ltd, Zhengzhou, China

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the breadbasket of China and the “cradle of Chinese civilization”. The basin is characterized by severe water scarcity; the surface water withdrawal to water resources ratio, at 64% in 2008, is amongst the highest in the world. Particular climatic conditions, the rapid socio-economic development, and the absence of defined water rights, have led to excessive water abstraction. Over the last 50 years agricultural water use has increased by more than 250%, while water demand from industry and domestic use has grown even more steeply. Climate change (CC) is likely to add pressure to water resources by affecting the stream-flow in two regions of the YRB, which account for approximately three fourths of total runoff in the basin. Using stream-flow data as input, the YRCC water supply and demand model projects that CC may result in annual water shortages of 9 km3 by 2020. In extreme dry years this value may increase to 15 or even 26 km3. Similarly, IFPRI’s IMPACT model shows a decline in overall availability of water for irrigation in the YRB under CC. The model also shows that large food-producing basins, such as the Yellow River Basin can strongly impact international food prices. We implement two scenarios of reduced irrigation water availability in the YRB (declines by 30% and 50%) under CC, which reflect Chinese estimates of future dry-season water shortages in the YRB. By 2030, with climate change and under irrigation water reduction of 30%, international wheat prices increase of 6%, maize prices by 4%, and rice prices by 3%. With a 50% irrigation reduction increases would be even higher: by 9% for wheat, 10% for maize, and 6% for rice. Furthermore, calorie availability in developing countries declines by 1.2% and 2.2% under a 30% and 50% irrigation water reduction, respectively, by 2030. In order to preserve economic growth and food security in the basin, and reduce potentially adverse impacts on global food markets, managers will need to tackle inefficient water use. YRCC experts show that technological advances are important, but not sufficient to meet projected gaps in water supply. The focus will thus need to remain on measures to control water demand as well as on increased agricultural and crop water productivity. China has both the potential and the resources to make this happen.

CCI1-008

Bias correction of climate model data - The golden solution for impact models or cursed black magic? S. Hagemann1, J.O. Haerter1, C. Piani2 1Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, 2Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy

Future climate model scenarios depend crucially on their adequate representation of the hydrological cycle. Thus, for climate change impact studies on water resources, climate model output is often used to force hydrology models. This coupling is expected to lead to a better assessment of changes in the hydrological cycle than considering climate model output only. However, due to the systematic model errors of climate models, their output is often not directly applicable as input for hydrological models. Thus, a variety of bias correction methods have been and are presently developed. Here, the methodology of a statistical bias correction has to be noted, which can be used for correcting climate model output to produce internally consistent fields that have the same statistical intensity distribution as the observations. This methodology has been applied to daily precipitation (mean) and temperature (mean, minimum, maximum) time series of three coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation models (GCMs). Then the bias corrected data were used to force two global hydrology models (GHMs). The impact of the bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes was analysed, and the resulting behaviour of both hydrology models was compared.

It is found that the bias correction has an impact on the climate change signal for specific locations and months, thereby adding another level of uncertainty in the modelling chain from the GCM to the simulated changes calculated by the hydrology models. For some regions, the impact of the bias correction on the climate change signal may be larger than the signal itself, thus adding another level of uncertainty that is comparable to the uncertainty related to the choice of the GCM or GHM. It is rather difficult to judge whether the impact of the bias correction on the climate change signal leads to a more realistic signal or not. Is this bias correction just black magic in dealing with climate model errors or is it the golden solution? Certainly it adds another level of uncertainty within the GCM


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hydrology model (or any other impact model) modelling chain, which has to be communicated to the impact research communities. Consequently, how to handle and possibly reduce this uncertainty is an important question in climate change impact research that requires future investigations.

CONNECTIVITIES AND LINKAGES BETWEEN RIVER BASINS AND THE EARTH SYSTEM

CLB-009

Europe, the meta-catchment? Homogenization of the freshwater fish fauna across Europe. N. Sommerwerk, J. Freyhof, K. Tockner

Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany

A network of >28,000 km of navigable rivers and canals connects all major European rivers. Moreover, most European rivers are heavily fragmented, canalized, and polluted, leading to a higher extinction rate of freshwater than of terrestrial or marine species. Within this new “meta-catchment” non-native species may rapidly spread across the continent forming novel communities and leading to faunal homogenization.

We quantified the former and present distribution of the freshwater fish fauna of almost 300 European primary river catchments covering 90% of the European continent.

Up to 25% of the native fish species disappeared per catchment. This loss has often been compensated by a rapid increase in non-native species; their proportion can be as high as 40% of the total species richness and is often caused by widespread, cosmopolitan species. Concurrently, long-distance migrating species such as sturgeons (Acipenseridae), allis shad (Alosa alosa) and lampreys (Petromyzontidae) got lost at the catchment scale. Increased total species numbers (gains > losses of species) are rare, while homogenization across catchments has increased.

We conclude that the frequently observed gain of species at spatial scales smaller than primary catchments can be misleading. The catchment scale enables to detect losses of native species although faunal homogenization took place.

CLB-010

Resilience of river basins under global change H. Hoff1, S. Cook2, G. Cumming3, C. Folke4, L. Gordon3, J. Rockström3, A. Vidal5 1Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden, 2Challenge Program on Water and Food, Melbourne, Australia, 3Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm, Sweden, 4Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, 5Challenge Program on Water and Food, Colombo, Sri Lanka

River basins are subject to a range of internal and external drivers of change, which in combination often increase water scarcity and compromise water-related ecosystem services and resilience.

We assess for a set of basins of the Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF) the importance of internal vs. external drivers, current and future state and possible trajectories of change, through a combined top-down and bottom-up approach.

We present a conceptual analysis on how variations in global water fluxes translate into livelihood impacts on the ground, and how the coupled water and food systems influence development processes within river basins. External drivers - in particular basin dependence on influx of atmospheric moisture and virtual water, as well as climate change impacts - are simulated with the help of the LPJ global eco-hydrological model.

From parallel analysis of key biophysical indicators, such as green and blue water availability and productivity, with underlying socio-economic attributes we develop a conceptual framework of regime shifts at different scales, to identify likely ‘tipping points’ in which river basin resilience seems threatened.

Potential feedbacks of basin responses or regime shifts to the Earth system will also be analysed.


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CLB-011

Water resources in a river basin context to be managed in a way that they deliver greatest benefit to all and in the long run - comparative analysis at global scale G. Klein

Water Strategy Initiative Office, Bonn, Germany

Water resources in a river basin context to be managed in a way that they deliver greatest benefit to all and in the long run - comparative analysis at global scale

of various approaches: 1. Ecosystems function in relation to and depending on the continuous availability and conditions

of water – stability and resilience. 2. The “Value added” by ecosystem functions has been described mostly in relation to small and

medium scale sub-basin- aquatic ecosystems, showing the inevitable link of all economic considerations to the aquatic functions.

3. Human-environment - interactions are, with a few extremely rare exceptions, always in a causal connection either with the dependence on water quality and quantity, or with water management as the steering component.

4. The latter form a magnificent entry point for environmental excellence in almost all human activities.

5. Water availability or the impact on it are not just side effects, or one of the functional elements, but the key driver and deciding mechanism, with resilience functions, which at river basin scale usually exceed the time span of “human action”. However, long term observations provide a solid basis for solution oriented decision making , also with a long term vision.

Economic considerations related to water do not come upfront due to the fact that efficient and sustainable water management results in marginal cost for water supply. On the other side, the failure of water management results in total economic destruction, which is usually not seen as a result of improperly dealing with the “marginal” issue water management.

Where to go? We will use a few case studies to dwell on DSS-approaches confronting • Putting precaution into practice – through green investment • Polluter pays - versus prevention reward principle • Economic benefits - versus commercial benefits Global awareness needs to be focussed, capacity development needs to be based upon “telling

the truth” – truth in ecologic and in economic terms. Regional experience at river basin level provides DSS for global change issues.

CLB-012

Scale problems of global irrigation simulations A. Schumann, D. Wisser, S. Frolking

Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie, Wasserwirtschaft und Umwelttechnik, Bochum, Germany

Irrigation is the dominating water use at global scale. It provides the most important anthropogenic link between blue and green water. Since the 1950´s, irrigated areas have been expanded dramatically. To serve the need for irrigation, large water withdrawal and distribution systems were established which impact the hydrological conditions at large scales. Although the technologies of irrigation and the water demand for it are well known at the plot scale, the hydrological impacts on the global scale which depend on management strategies, losses, conjunctive use of multiple sources and climate variabilities can only be assessed with large uncertainties. In this presentation the state of global irrigation modeling and the involved uncertainties are discussed. Typical problems of model-based assessments are demonstrated by case studies. Special emphasis is directed towards rainwater harvesting, the collection and storage of surface runoff in cisterns, ponds, and small reservoirs. It has recently been recognized as an important means to limit the impact of climate variability on crop production and thereby contribute to increased food security. The implementation of those small scale structures depends on a number of local, site specific conditions. Global assessments of those reservoirs are therefore highly uncertain. We will present a global scale assessment of the potential of rainwater harvesting to meet water demand in irrigated areas and in croplands in general taking into account these uncertainties. Based on global geospatial data sets of crop yield and water productivity, the implications of increased rainwater harvesting scenarios on food


as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37 31

production are estimated. The dependencies between the efficiency of rainwater harvesting, evaporation losses and impacts on downstream water users are considered.

CLB-013

Hydrologic drought in western Canada - Its detection, characterization, impacts and challenges R. Lawford, P. Harder

University of Manitoba, Winnepeg, Manitoba, Canada

In western Canada, different local climates and different economic opportunities have resulted in a mosaic of water use patterns and hydrologic responses to climate anomalies such as drought. Due to their continental and often semi-arid regional climates, the population of the Canadian Prairies is very vulnerable to the impacts of drought and other causes of water stress. While some strategies for adapting to water stress have been developed over decades as farming communities have adjusted to alternating periods of excess moisture and drought, these strategies need to be reconsidered in the light of climate change.

Furthermore, the demands for water are growing with the expansion of the oil and potash industries leading to new infrastructure and increasing demands for water. As a result it is increasingly important for drought monitoring programs to consider hydrologic indicators that represent water resource stresses as well as the more traditional climate and agrometeorological indicators.

This presentation explores options for characterizing and monitoring drought using several different hydrologic indicators during a very extensive multiyear drought that occurred on the Canadian prairies during the period 1999-2004. As discussed in this presentation, physical indicators, while providing information on the factors causing the drought, cannot explain all of the impacts, because the responses of water resource systems are being influenced by land use change, changing infrastructure and policies. The interactions of factors that lead to drought and those that control the response of water resources to the drought must be understood before reliable adaptation strategies can be developed.

IMPACTS OF LARGE-SCALE LAND USE PATTERNS AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES

LUP-014

Competing claims for water in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia - Global drivers and local opportunities H. Hengsdijk1, H. Jansen2, J. van Driel3 1Plant Research International, Wageningen Univesity and Research center, Wageningen, The Netherlands, 2Alterra, Wageningen University and Research center, Wageningen, The Netherlands, 3Horn of Africa Regional Environment Center, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Recently, economic liberalization and the globalization of food and non-food systems have fostered investments in agriculture in many parts of Africa, including Ethiopia. The Government of Ethiopia embraced these developments within its Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) strategy which forms the cornerstone of Ethiopia’s poverty reduction strategy. As part of ADLI, the Government of Ethiopia and donors actively support the commercialization of smallholders and the development of large-scale export-oriented agriculture, among others in the Central Rift Valley. This closed river basin, supporting a large population, consists of a chain of three lakes with unique hydrological and ecological characteristics including a biodiversity rich National Park.

As a result of various driving forces at different scales and thanks to favourable conditions for agricultural investments, both small scale and large scale irrigated agriculture has expanded rapidly in the Central Rift Valley. This development has been associated with the over-exploitation of the limited water resources and the increased competition for land and water. Policy makers seem to have a limited capacity to respond to the negative impacts of the ongoing resource degradation on the local livelihoods and the ecosystem. There is a lack of proper natural resources management, and there is an urgent need for improved resource planning and integrated land and water management, taking into account the carrying capacity of the Central Rift Valley ecosystem.

The aim of the paper is to contribute to the better understanding of the competing resource claims in the Central Rift Valley as a basis for identifying sustainable resource management options together


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with stakeholders. This paper describes the driving forces and their interactions at various scales associated with the recent changes in land and water use in the Central Rift Valley. We use an existing methodological framework to analyze competing claims on natural resources that forms the basis for facilitating stakeholder negotiation processes (Giller et al, 2008). The framework consists of four iterative phases: (i) description of driving forces and resource base; (ii) explanation and understanding of the competing claims; (iii) exploration of alternative resource management options; and (iv) design of action-research aimed at mitigating competing claims and improving resource use efficiencies. The paper describes the results of the various phases of the framework and how they have been interactively completed with stakeholders in the Central Rift Valley. The framework proved useful to disentangle myths from facts and formed the base for improved planning and management approaches. The stakeholder negotiation process was most important for improving transparency among stakeholders resulting in new alliances aimed at participatory action-research and development.

References: Giller, K. et al., 2008. Ecol. Soc. 13(2): 1-34

LUP-015

Regional responses to the global change: drivers for changes in social - ecological systems in the Amudarya River Basin D. Hirsch

UNU-EHS, Bonn, Germany

Central Asia is a region with one of the highest levels of water availability per capita on a planetary scale, but inefficient use of water, while the absence of modern technology, constant need in increase food production and industrial products for the rapidly growing population as well as deterioration of irrigation and drainage systems today have created an acute shortage of water in both rural and urban areas, in industrial centres and in the sub mountain regions. In the Amudarya river basin, global change is manifested through the rapid melting of glaciers in the mountains. The large scale changes in the socio-political and socio-economic settings after the break-up of the Soviet Union have further compounded the difficulties of water management. The purpose of this article is to discuss the state of current understanding of global change in the republics within the Amudarya river basin and to outline the major uncertainties of climate, environmental changes and other changes in the basin. Particular attention is given to interactions between effects of global change and the regional changes such as food security, water for hydroelectric generation versus farming irrigation and changes in socio-ecological systems.

LUP-016

Effect of changing anthropogenic and climate conditions on BOD loading and in-stream water quality in Europe A. Voß1, I. Bärlund1, M. Punzet1, R. Williams2, E. Teichert1, O. Malve3, F. Voß1 1CESR University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany, 2NERC-CEH, Wallingford, United Kingdom, 3SYKE, Helsinki, Finland

Although catchment scale modelling of water and solute transport and transformations is a widely used technique to study pollution pathways and effects of natural changes, policies and mitigation measures there are only a few examples of global water quality modelling. This work will provide an analysis of changes in point and diffuse loading as well as surface water quality under changed anthropogenic and climate conditions using the WorldQual model. The focus is on BOD as an indicator of the level of organic pollution and its oxygen-depleting potential, and for the overall health of aquatic ecosystems. The application of the WorldQual model is to river systems of Europe in order to investigate the future of freshwater resources in pan-Europe as described by the SCENES (project "Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States") scenarios.

The main drivers for the scenario analysis of point loads are connectivity to sewage networks, the level of treatment as well as changes in population and GDP. A key role in derivation of the changes in the driving forces is played by the SCENES pan-European panel, a group of stakeholders that provided the project with information on these key drivers for seven pan-European regions and for four scenario storylines. For diffuse BOD loading animal numbers and runoff are the key components of the export coefficient equation applied. Whereas animal numbers is a further socio-economic variable runoff is mainly affected by future climate conditions. For SCENES three Global Circulation Model -


as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37 33

scenario combinations were selected to highlight the variability of future climate projections for Europe.

The aim of this study was to compare the effect of socio-economic changes and climate on loading of BOD and in-stream water quality. In order to account for varying characteristics in the relationship between a catchment and the region where it is located, case studies in Northern (Kokemäenjoki, Thames), Central (Vistula, Danube) and Southern Europe (Ebro) were analyzed. The results show that climate change has only a small impact on BOD loadings and in-stream water quality compared to demographic changes in Europe. Some variables like population and treatment level can be used as regional input others like connectivity to sewage treatment had to be fitted to basin conditions in order to reproduce the right level of loading input and thus in-stream concentrations.

LUP-017

High noon - Adaptation to changing water resources availability in Northern India H. Biemans1, E. Moors1, S. Badhwal2, S. Nair2 1Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, the Netherlands, 2TERI, New Delhi, India

Climate change is expected to have a profound impact on the availability of water in the Ganga Basin. The combined changes in glacier melt and monsoon precipitation will affect the total amount of water available. However, the magnitude and timing of these changes are highly uncertain.

On the other hand, rapid socio-economic changes also influence current and future water resources demand (and availability). Their combined effect will determine the stress on available water resources.

The main objective of the HighNooN project (www.eu-highnoon.org) is to develop possible adaptation measures in the Ganga basin, with the central component to provide the necessary methods and information for a truly stakeholder driven approach.

In order to be informative to stakeholders it is important to present water resources projections with high geographical detail to get a complete picture of the most vulnerable areas and to assign the best locations for (combinations) of adaptation measures.

On a global scale, climate and socio-economic scenarios are developed and updated in a consistent way, using integrated assessment models. However, the global models and results do not contain enough detail to relate directly to the needs and wishes of stakeholders involved in water resources management at the catchment scale, where adaptation takes place. On the other hand, scenarios developed on a more regional level capture regional developments, but often lack the consistency and context of larger scale trends.

In this study, we have compared the effects on water resources of a global scenario versus a regional scenario. And we have nested regional socio economic scenarios in a global scenario to make a consistent assessment of vulnerable areas within the Ganga basin. Subsequently, we have made a first assessment of the effect of possible adaptation measures.

LUP-018

Drivers and dynamics of bioenergy driven land use change in Southern Africa G. Jewitt, S. Stuart-Hill, S. Ngcobo, S. Munishi, R. Kunz, P. Viola, M. Ojoyi

School of Bioresources Engineering and Environmental Hydrology, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Africa’s potential to provide food, fuel, fibre and fodder for future global food and energy security has made it a target for a myriad investors from developed and developing countries alike. In many places, land grants and purchases have led to the establishment of huge monoculture production areas for food, fuel, fibre (maize, sugar cane, jatropha, plantation forestry etc) often precededby deforestation and largescale utilisation and modifacation of available water resources. This coupled with the likelihood of rapid urbanisation in Africa over the next forty years and associated impacts linked to the high concentrations of inhabitants utilising and ultimately degrading available natural resources (e.g. wood for charcoal; water quality) have made Africa’s ecosystems and people amongst the most vulnerable to global environmental change.

Key questions that arise are how available scientific knowledge can best be utilized to reduce this vulnerability, where key gaps in knowledge in understanding the inter-linkages between societal needs and Food-Fibre-Energy-Water supply exist and how to best address the necessary complexity of considering these at different spatial and temporal scales. Drawing on the Ecosystem Goods and


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Services approach, we have a developed a Hydrological Index to assess potential development scenarios focussed on bioenergy production.

In this paper, we present key messages from ongoing research activities in South Africa, Swaziland, Mozambique and Tanzania and report on progress in applying such management tools and systems to support decision making in these areas where development needs are critical. We also highlight lessons drawn from situations where unintended consequences have resulted from well meaning or politically expedient initiatives linked to large donor or foreign investment schemes, such as “outgrower” programmes, and where major environmental damage and ultimately the permanent loss of productivity of some landscapes has occurred.

SECOND PLENARY SESSION

SPS-019

Large rivers under stress (invited presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages between river basins and the earth system) K. Tockner, M. Pusch, C. Wolter, J. Gessner, A. Sukhodolov, M. Venohr

Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany

Large rivers and their floodplains have been served as preferential settling sites, as well as focal axes of economic development until today. As the ecosystem services provided by these systems are used in various ways, large rivers are mostly subjected to multiple human stressors such as land reclamation, floodplain drainage, navigation, channelization, water pollution, and species invasion. Frequently, combined human impacts have altered ecosystem structure and function to such a degree that those large rivers have to be considered as novel or domesticated ecosystems - with no analogous state in the past. Native communities are being rapidly replaced by exotic-dominated assemblages leading to a strong homogenizing of biota.

In the face of these drastic alterations it is becoming evident that most conservation and restoration strategies probably do not achieve their goals because of non-linear relationships and time-lag effects between the causes and the effects of biodiversity decrease and ecosystem functioning, similar to what is seen for human demographic development and CO2 increase. Concurrently, restoration targets compete with other political targets and directives implemented. Restoration efforts are often disproportionately scaled in comparison to the targetsw aimed at, and often lack inter-sectorial co-ordination, and use of potential synergies among political sectors.

In this presentation, we will discuss the formation and establishment of novel large river ecosystems, its corresponding communities and related ecosystem services, and then to present innovate ideas and concepts on how to potentially manage large rivers as cultural freshwater ecosystems and on how to develop synergies among presently competing targets such as biodiversity conservation and navigation and flood control.

SPS-021

Water governance - A multi-level challenge (invited presentation to topic: Influence of global and national governance on water resources in river basins) C. Pahl-Wostl

Institute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrueck, Osnabrueck, Germany

The focus of water governance and management has gradually shifted from the local to the basin level as dominant scale where problems should be addressed. But in essence water governance is a multi-level challenge from local to global dimensions. Despite of the importance of water governance - the global “water crisis” is often described as more a governance crisis than one of resource availability - our understanding of multi-level water governance systems is quite limited. One important goal of the GWSP is to improve this situation by building more capacity in the scholary community and establishing a sound knowledge base.

Finding general patterns in water governance regimes and the dynamics of change without resorting to simplistic blueprints poses considerable challenges. Defaulting to generic and simplistic approaches does not address the complexity of real governance regimes. Panaceas have proven to be weak in their explanatory power and not very useful or even detrimental for policy advice. Unfortunately, technological or institutional panaceas such as the privatization boom were often


as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37 35

automatically applied. What is required may be called a diagnostic approach supporting context-sensitive analysis without being case specific and thus not transferable.

Such an approach relies on a systemic perspective to embrace complexity and the wealth of interactions characterizing governance regimes. This requires an interdisciplinary approach in the social sciences and across the social-natural science interface which pose considerable challenges to scientific communities. Conceptual and methodological foundations are often (perceived to be) incompatible. Shared databases and protocols scarcely exist. Required is more collaboration in professional networks that adopt shared practices to build a knowledge base as a foundation for dealing with the major global change challenges of the present and the future. Hardly any large comparative analyses have been conducted up to now which poses severe limitations on deriving general insights on the implications of global change on water governance and the development of context sensitive response strategies.

The paper will give an overview on existing conceptual and methodological frameworks, on ongoing activities and emerging networks in the field of water governance and global change with emphasis on the link between national, basin and global levels. Results will be presented from Twin2Go (Coordinating Twinning partnerships towards more adaptive Governance in river basins) an EU funded synthesis activitiy with emphasis on adaptive water governance and climate change. Twin2Go analyses how certain characteristics of a water governance regime influence its performance given a certain context in which the regime is embedded. Performance focuses on respecting good governance principles, progress in achieving the water related MDGs and climate change adaptation.

FIRST POSTER SESSION

PS1-022

Effect of land use and erosion by water on soil carbon stock at catchment scale K. Nosrati

Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a principal component in soil quality assessment. The changes in the SOC stocks may have large potential impact on global climate. Knowledge of SOC stocks is critical key to understand the role of SOC in the global carbon cycle and as a result in the mitigation of the global greenhouse effect, as well requires for evaluation of environmental process models. To estimate these effects, it is increasingly important to estimate the SOC stock for individual catchments, regions or countries. SOC stocks are a function of the SOC concentration and the bulk density of the soil. Both mentioned variables are prone to changes and are influenced by land use changes and soil erosion processes. Consequently, the types of land use and soil erosion are important factors controlling soil organic carbon stock. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate SOC stock under different land use types and soil erosion types at catchment scale. In view of this, bulk density and C and N concentrations were measured in 56 different sampling sites of three main groups of land use/soil erosion namely, rangeland/surface erosion, orchard/surface erosion, and rangeland/streambank erosion at Hiv catchment, Iran. The results showed that SOC and total nitrogen (TN) stock under all land use and erosion groups was significantly different (P < 0.01). SOC and TN stock was greatest in the orchard land use and the total SOC stock for the 30 cm soil layer under different land uses and erosion types varied in order orchard/surface erosion (69 Mg/ha) > rangeland/surface erosion (47 Mg/ha) > rangeland/streambank erosion (31 Mg/ha; P < 0.01). Also the TN stock has the same trend in all studied land use and erosional groups. These results can be useful as a scientific basis for selecting the proper soil erosion control methods as a simple and low-cost approach to mitigate the SOC and TN loss for decision makers of natural resources.

PS1-023

Impact of irrigated agriculture development on desertification process in Aral Sea basin V. Rafikov1, M. Yacubov2 1Institute of Seismology, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 2Institute of Water Problems, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Increased irrigation and regulation of river flow for the needs of the national economy negatively affects on the Aral Sea. The Amu Darya and the Syr Darya watersheds are the largest areas of


36 as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37

irrigated agriculture. A climatic condition allows getting on the irrigated lands guaranteed yield. Inflow of river runoff in the Aral Sea since 1961 has significantly decreased due to intensive increase withdrawal of river water for irrigation.

The Aral Sea region is a classic pattern for investigation of the processes of anthropogenic desertification in the arid part of Central Asia. The rapid dynamics of those processes, sparked by the decline of Aral Sea level, and the pollution of river and sea waters among other problems, have taken place in plain view during the span of one generation. Desertification is manifested in the intense degradation of natural resources up to the point of their complete depletion in the region. Desertification processes observed on the dried part of the newly exposed seabed are especially highly dynamic, having changed within a relatively short period of time. Comprehensive studies of regional desertification processes are of special importance to the development of the concepts and methods needed to plan for the control of those processes on the basis of scientific research.

The most negative effect on the environment of the drying out of the Aral Sea is in the delta plains of the Amudarya and Syrdarya, and in a radius of influence of the atmosphere on relative humidity and the temperature regime at a distance of 150-200 km in the southwestern direction. At the same time, the impact of the drying sea has been insignificant on the composition of coastal sediments on the Ustyurt Plateau and in the eastern part of the sea's periphery (the northwest Kyzylkum part of the Aral Sea region).

This study presents a contemporary desertification process in a phase of continuous development in the Amu Darya River delta and on dried seabed of the Aral Sea, trend of desertification processes, as well as measures for improvement of natural equilibrium. There are systemized anthropogenic and natural components influencing on desertification process of geosystem and landscape. Prognosis of future scenario of hydrological and hydrochemical changes in region is shown up to 2020.

PS1-024

Trends in 20th century global rainfall interception as simulated by a dynamic global vegetation model - Implications for global water resources S.J. Murray

University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom

In order to monitor and forecast regions of potential freshwater stress and surplus, a comprehensive understanding and quantification of the global hydrological cycle and its components is needed. Such work should lead to better constrained estimates of freshwater fluxes and facilitate the identification of regions requiring enhanced water management.

The research described here aims to quantify the contribution of climate- and CO2-induced changes in the physical properties of the land surface, mediated by biological processes. Global climate change is expected to bring about substantial latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in vegetation cover. Shifts in species distribution, the potential of increased leaf area index (LAI) but also reduced stomatal conductance in response to rising concentrations of CO2, and variability in precipitation, can all influence rates and spatial variability of the interception-throughfall balance. These effects will have implications for runoff generation and the partitioning between ‘green’ and ‘white’ water fluxes.

The Land Processes eXchange Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX-DGVM, a development of the LPJ model) was evaluated in terms of its interception component and used to simulate trends in global relative throughfall from 1901-2006, as this is directly relevant for runoff. We estimate that mean global annual runoff was reduced by 164 ±18 km3/year during the twentieth century as a result of biophysical changes controlling relative throughfall generation. Widespread decreases in relative throughfall of typically between 0 and -1% are evident between 1901-1953 and 1954-2006. Changes of up to <-5% are evident in parts of North America and East Asia. Areas of simulated decrease in relative throughfall often lie in close proximity to areas of relative increase, reflecting the effects of vegetation shifts.

It is likely that future global throughfall will generally increase (due to increasing precipitation), but the curtailing of runoff via decreased relative throughfall (as a product of vegetation shifts and increased LAI) may cause the exacerbation of water stress in some regions (including parts of East Asia, North America and the Tropics) and increased flooding in others (for example, other parts of the Tropics and northern Russia). This therefore offers a further indication of the control that vegetation imposes on the global freshwater budget.


as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37 37

PS1-025

Blue and green virtual water flows and water footprints M. Fader, M. Thammer, J. Heinke, D. Gerten, W. Cramer

PIK, Potsdam, Germany

Knowledge about virtual water content (VWC), flows and water footprints can be used to detect the potentials of water saving practices, identify water intensive crops, analyze the amount of water needed to produce a food or feed diet, and discuss the role of crop trade as mitigation option for increasing water scarcity.

Here we quantify at 0.5 degree resolution blue and green VWC for 11 crops (using the hydrology and biosphere model LPJmL) and calculate, for the first time, national green and blue water footprints for the present and also under future climate and population change.

Blue and green VWC are found to be lowest in industrialized countries, with blue VWC being generally higher than green VWC in the same region. While India, Spain and Thailand are major blue virtual water exporters, Australia, Argentina and Canada are major green virtual water exporters. Indonesia, Japan and the Philippines import large amounts of virtual water (green and blue). While Ghana is a major importer of blue virtual water, Spain, Egypt and Iran are major importers of green virtual water. China and India are the countries with the highest absolute blue and green water footprints; measured however relative to population, Papua New Guinea and Afghanistan as well as Portugal and North Korea take the first places in blue and green water footprints, respectively. Climate change and population development will modify in a non-linear way the patterns of blue and green water footprints. The expected result is that the signal of population change determines the resulting pattern, overshadowing the signal of climate change.

PS1-026

Water resource management in Indo-Nepal fringe - Need of joint long-term governmental resolutions N.M.P. Verma

Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow, India

There is problem of water management in Indo-Nepal fringe.Water coming from Nepal mountainous region during rainy season overflows towards India and pours in the Bay of Bengal.In this course of flow there comes heavy flood in Nepal region and India region. Although a few efforts have been made but still water disaster in this fringe is a chronic problem.In the present study an effort has been made to show the disaster through secondary data. The study through comparative analytical

analysis shows the crucial issue of water management in this fring of South Asia.Given capital shortage in both the countries it is recommended from policy point of view that the issue of conflict can be resolved if both the govt utilize local community resources,train them and assist during pre flood and post flood situiations.A joint authority to regulate water management in the fringe has also been suggested.

PS1-027

Abstractions of real and virtual water from the Rio Biobío basin (Chile) - Extent, interactions and governance M. Pusch1, O. Parra2 1Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries [IGB], Berlin, Germany, 2Centre of Environmental Sciences [EULA], Concepción, Chile

Economic development of river basins is often based on multiple uses of the ecosystem services provided by river systems. The multiple uses within river catchments often show synergistic and antagonistic interactions. Division of work within countries, as well as globalization has produced situations where ecosystem services are most extensively used in river systems where they are abundant and/or cheaply available. Products produced there are exported into other river basins, or even other continents, where those ecosystem services are more scarce or expensive. As a result, the hydrology of river basins is not only modified by abstraction of real water, but also of virtual water.

So far, governance of river systems has hardly succeeded to optimize the various uses of rivers within a river basin in order to make a maximum of ecosystem services available for human societies.


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Moreover, the integrative management of several river basins interconnected by the transfer of virtual water has hardly be addressed.

This situation is demonstrated by means of the typical example of the Rio Biobío, the largest river basin of Chile. The river systems's ecosystem services are utilized by several major economic uses, as hydropower generation, industrial wood and pulp production, agriculture, and drinking water production. Additionally, the river basin has special importance for the conservation of regional biodiversity. Huge economic values, i.e. volumes of virtual water, are exported from the catchment to other parts of Chile, and to other continents, including Europe. Perspectives for the sustainable management and governance of that situation are discussed.

PS1-028

Land cover change in the Okavango river basin during the Angolan civil war J.C.M. Andersson

Eawag - Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland

The impact of war is often conveyed in descriptions of deaths, migration and damage to infrastructure – immediate impacts on society. But war can also affect the natural resources on which societies are built. This study focuses on clarifying linkages between land cover changes in the Okavango river basin (192 500 km2) and the Angolan civil war (1975-2002). As one of the key factors influencing water flux partitioning, land cover changes were calculated throughout the basin at 33x33m resolution with two satellite-based change detection methods. To study discrete change in landuse class, a method combining unsupervised classification and pattern-recognition of remotely sensed data was applied. The degree to which vegetation vigour was changed was further quantified with the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index. Patterns of land cover change were then compared with reported characteristics of the war (e.g. vegetation regeneration and land clearing following migration and urbanisation).

The dominant change in the basin during this period was a decrease in vegetation vigour to more sparsely vegetated land of low reflectance (e.g. grasses). This was probably caused by the inter-annual variability in precipitation and the onset of the growing season. In connection with war-induced migration, burned areas decreased by 27% on the basin scale allowing vegetation to recover. Increase in vegetation vigour was also observed for several smaller villages throughout the basin, abandoned during the many raids of the warring factions against presumed opponents. In contrast, land clearings increased by 66% on the basin scale, particularly within the boundaries of towns under siege, in areas close to rebel headquarters, and across the border in Namibia where many people fled. Simultaneously, large-scale agriculture increased by 59% in the peaceful Namibian part of the basin – related to the immigration but also to national food security objectives and international food trade. All these geo-politically and socio-economically induced changes have contributed to the altered character of the river basin and its water flux partitioning.

PS1-029

River flow projection in a changing climate M. Ndini, E. Demiraj

Institute of Energy, Water and Environment, Tirane, Albania

One of the most important consequences of the global climate change is the change in the hydrological cycle, with the further impact on the water resources. These are changes in the elements that interact within the hydrological cycle, primary precipitation, evapotranspiration, infiltration, surface runoff and soil moisture content.

This paper presents some results of the impact of expected changes of climate in Mati river runoff within the project “Identification and implementation of adaptation response measures to Drini - Mati River Deltas” The aim of this project is to assess the impact of climate changes to local scale.

The warming of the global climate caused by greenhouse effect can induce essential changes in the hydrological regime and water resources at a different time scale. Water balance modeling with regard to climate change scenarios can give substantial information on changes in the hydrological situation in the future. Water-balance models are especially useful for identifying the regional hydrological consequences of changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic variables.

The aim of the present research is the determination of the impact of possible climatic change upon surface water resources in the Mati river basin, using the WatBal water balance model. This model has been used recently to examine climate variations at scales that are not resolved by global models and can be a powerful tool in the study of regional climate impacts.


as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37 39

In the paper, the values of mean monthly discharges at Shkopet gauging station on the Mati River and Rubik gauging station on the Fani River, estimated in above-mentioned hypotheses, are presented.

PS1-030

A comparative overview of nutrients transport to the sea from three major rivers in China Xie. Lichun, Chen. Jianyao

School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

Based on the examination of nutrient concentrations at Lijin Station of the Yellow River, Datong Station of the Yangtze River and the eight outlets of the Pearl River, sources and seasonal variations of nutrient concentrations of N and P, and their fluxes were compared. The following results were obtained: 1) Nitrogen concentration in the Yellow River was approximately 2-5 times as that of the Pearl River and Yangtze River respectively, with a main composition of nitrate. For phosphorus, it was 1-10 times and 1-5 times as that of the Pearl River and Yangtze River respectively. 2) The fluxes of the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in the Pearl River and the Yangtze River were 46 times and 27 times as that of the Yellow River, while there were 36 times and 74 times respectively for total phosphorus (TP). 3) The forms of nutrients transports from these rivers were different in composition of DIN and TP. In wet season, the proportion of NH4+-N (6.1%) and NO2--N (10.1%) in the Pearl River were much higher than those of the Yellow River (0.1% and .07%) and those of the Yangtze River (1.7% and 0.3%), while in dry season, the NH4+-N accounted for about 9.6 %, which was lower than that of the Yangtze River(13.6%). The predominant form of phosphorus exporting from the Yellow River and the Yangtze River was Particulate phosphorus (PP), occupying approximately 90.8% and 90% in wet season, and 50.1% and 70.6% in dry season, while PO43—P was the main form of TP in the Pearl River, which contributed 42.1% in wet season and 58.1% in dry season. 4) The concentrations and fluxes of nitrogen in the Yangtze River increased temporally distinctly, and there was an increasing tendency of nitrogen concentration in the Yellow River, while an increasing flux was found for the Pearl River from 1986 to 2003, due mainly to the high population density and the wide spread use of fertilizer in the watershed. 5) Nutrients in the Yangtze River mainly came from chemical fertilizer, atmospheric deposition and point sewage input. Soil erosion and application of fertilizer might be the dominated sources of nutrients in the Yellow River. However, anthropogenic impacts on nutrients transport in the Pearl River seem to be more obvious. The high proportion of NH4+-N and PO43--P in the Pearl River delta can be explained by the large input of sewage, which contributed at least 20% of the nitrogen flux in the whole basin.

Keywords: Nutrient, flux , the Yellow River, the Yangtze River, the Pearl River Acknowledgements: This work was jointly supported by the Natural Science Foundation of

Guangdong (Grant No.9251027501000021), and the Innovation and application research fund for water sciences of Guangdong Province, China.

PS1-031

Influence of solar activity on river flow formation in the north hemisphere (exemplified by the Rhine River)

Rhein-Erft Academy, Hürth, Germany

River discharge can be conceived as a cumulative effect of local weather parameters such as temperature, wind, rain, snow, glacier melting and ocean currents as well as interaction among these.

The major driving force of atmospheric circulation is solar heating, which on average is largest near the equator and decreases as one moves polewards. The sun bathes the Earth’s equator with enormous amount of solar energy. This energy evaporates water, causes atmospheric convection and is transported polewards by winds. Atmospheric circulation in global scale trends to equilibrium between ocean evaporation and atmosphere capacity.

The total atmosphere has a constant mass. At the same time today we have not evidences of diminishing of global amount of water. Therefore anthropogenic impact and climate change leads to redistribution of water by way of evaporation from oceans, seas and irrigated areas and transportation to neighboring areas. In that way a secular variations in river fluctuation can be considered as interaction between atmosphere and hydrosphere. There are play an important role in secular climate and water resources change because of high inertial capacity of both.


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River flows provide an integrated measure of rainfall over the basin that river drains. The river runoff comes from total watershed area and is eventually concentrated into a single channel that acts like an integrator. River flow provide a single-point measurement; giving both large-scale averaging and amplification.

As model river which shows the solar-river flow interrelation can be considered the Rhine River (Germany). For the river is typically that in zone of water formation – maintains ranges originate natural barrier for direct atmosphere intrusion from equatorial area and this mountain heights protects the main part of area from mass transfer by means of wind from west and east. The main role in zone of water formation of the river plays actually global atmosphere circulation.

Dependence of air temperature from solar activity in Basel, Switzerland 1755-1964 shows following relationship: T°=0,142W+8,32; where T°-temperature of air in Celsius; W –Wolf’s numbers; coefficient of correlation r = 0,71;

Discharge of Rhine River from solar activity in different cycles of solar activity is calculated as follow:

Q1 = 0.16W + 44.083; r = 0. 92 Q2 = -0.17W + 58.57; r = 0.89 Where Q1 and Q2 -discharge of the river in cu.km/year. W-sunspots number, r - coefficient of correlation. Average global temperature of the Earth, in accordance with our forecasting, in future will be

decrease. In these conditions it is very important to forecast the river discharge. This article proposes to consider solar activity as an additional source of impact on the formation

of river runoff.

PS1-032

Environmental and socio-economic issues associated with the impact of climate change on the river basins of India K.S. Nair

Nansen Environmental Research Centre India, Kochi, India

Managing the river basins has become a complicated issue in India under a changing climate. Demands in water have been steadily increasing in the domestic, agricultural, industrial and power sectors. But, the availability of water has been decreasing due to climate anomalies, resource degradation, overuse and improper conservation and management practices. India is one among the countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Indian economy and life of the majority has been traditionally linked to agriculture, the largest consumer of water. Irrigation development is vital in maintaining food security for the fast rising population. Abnormalities in rainfall, especially the changes in seasonality and intensity seriously affect the timely availability of water in the basins and this is reflected in agricultural production and hydel power generation. High seasonality in certain parts reduces groundwater recharge and summer water flow in rivers. Extremes like floods and droughts have become common in the major basins. Water quality in the coastal side of the basins is affected by the changes in the intensity, frequency and tracks of storms. In the Western Ghats Mountain area, high seasonality and intensity of rainfall results in erosion and sedimentation, reducing summer flow and making rivers seasonal. Retreat of Himalayan glaciers is likely to have large impact on all parts of north India, as the major rivers originate here. Water related health issues also worsen when climate changes. Vector-borne and water-borne diseases extend into new areas. Water shortage in river basins leads to socio-economic issues such as disputes over transboundary rivers, migration, pricing of water, setbacks in tourism and loss of biodiversity. Large investments will be required in adaptation and mitigation programmes. Present economic growth is likely to be haltered. This paper assesses the impact of climate change on the major river basins of India and its reflections on the environmental and socio-economic conditions. Changes in water availability in an altered climate have been estimated using hydrological model and the existing policies and .adaptation strategies have been critically reviewed. Results show that water availability will be drastically reduced in most of the basins. Though late, India has developed a water policy and climate policy. Several initiatives have been planned in the water sector such as the action plans to protect rivers. Unfortunately, these policies and strategies are inefficient and their implementation mechanism is weak. India urgently needs to develop an appropriate strategy for river basin management and climate change adaptation and a comprehensive environment policy that includes, water and climate and an efficient mechanism for the implementation. Guidelines for this have been provided. As the changes in climate are still uncertain, India should be prepared to face the worst condition.


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PS1-033

Impact of climate change on Lower Niger basin water system O. Adeaga

University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria

Climate change poses unique challenges through varied impacts on environmental dynamics and environment change enormous implications on the socio-economic and socio-cultural activities. Such impacts are usually severe in extremely stress systems due to concurrent multiple shocks or stress. Thus, there is need to address potential climate change impacts through better understanding of the variability and changes of its main processes and parameters and their impact on the global water system.

River Niger is a transboundary river with an active watershed, being shared between nine West and Central Africa countries. Unfortunately, the watershed is being faced with varied degree of climate change and variability, in addition to increasing per capita demand pressure and widespread water pollution activities with varied water challenges among riparian countries. Hence, marked decrease in flow and increasing urbanization and agricultural activities within the region, call for better understanding of the varied threats, linkages and feedbacks between the global dimensions of change and the water system components within the river system. This is of great demand, if issues’ relating to appropriate adaptation system with capacity to accommodate the various climate change threats on hydrological processes and expected modification as well as availability at global, regional and national level is to be developed. This is of importance since water remains the fundamental link between the climate system, human society and the environment.

In this paper, climatic anomalies and trends analysis were carried out on long-term rainfall and discharge data of available stations within lower Niger river basin. Lower Niger River system begins at the entry point of River Niger into Nigeria with an active watershed of about 629545km2 and discharge contribution of about 117km3/year, as it empty into the Niger Delta. The impact of climate variability and changes were also addressed based on the hydro-climatological systems of the different water system within the region. The analysis also involves a system vulnerability approach which entails estimation of the extreme hydrological events of selected rainfall and gauging stations within the region, using log pearson type III distribution. The distribution has been the prevailing model for quantifying risk associated with extreme hydrological events. In addition, various water supply and demand adaptation measures were discussed, in order to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change towards the development of environmental supportive people-oriented adaptable water system strategies in lower Niger River basin.

This information was spatially integrated within a geographical information system (GIS) vulnerability framework towards creation of a well structured spatially-based climate information tool towards addressing effective water system management within the Lower Niger basin.

PS1-034

Reservoir desiltation and its impacts on wetland water quality - A case study J.S. Paimpillil

Center for Earth Research and Environment Management, Cochin 17, India

The total storage for irrigation and power generation in the basins of rivers draining into the Vembanadu wetlands (South India) is of the order of about 6000 Mm3, which is nearly half of the average flood flow to the wetlands. The reservoirs help in containing the floods to the wetlands to a larger extent and act as sediment and nutrient traps. The increasing human intervention in these rivers has changed their physical and chemical structure in such a way that it might sound the death knell of these rivers, if the authorities continued to be indifferent. Indiscriminate sand mining and check dams across the rivers are the reasons for the degradation of the rivers. One of the major victims of these activities is the River Periyar (part of wetland system). Flushing out huge quantities of mud and silt collected in one reservoir for 18 years into the Periyar without advance public notice has raised concern on safety and quality of drinking water as this river is the only drinking water source for 40 lakh people. It had flushed down tones of decomposed bio-waste and sediments into the river and the river water got discolored with its taste and smell changed. More critically, the sediments got into several rural water supply pumping systems in the downstream. Pumping of the muddy water and distributing the same employing the traditional treatment methods seemed to be insufficient for human consumption. The turbidity level in the river had varied between 58 and 68 ntu. After treatment with alum and lime, the water quality level reached to the acceptable limits between 4 and 7 ntu. Though the present crisis occurred by non-cleaning the reservoir once in two years and such cleaning was


42 as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37

never for many dams- resulting in accumulation of sludge; similar openings of other dam’s can occur with climate changes. It is time to examine the water quality changes and the public reaction to the alarming situations of the spreading of waterborne diseases. To pre-empt eutrophication, the authorities were forced by NGO to step up inflow to stabilize the pH factor and oxygen content in the estuary. Any future de-silting of a reservoir has to be carried out only during the monsoons as the silt would get flushed down to the sea quickly. The environmental groups advocate against large dams and wanted only small local water harvesting structures to harness the monsoon flows. However, the storage requirements indicate that even to hold half of the available monsoon flows, at least a million tanks would have to be in position. When the rains fail, these tanks submerging about two million hectares would also dry up, negating the very purpose for which they are built. Hence a combination of major, medium and minor storages has to be further constructed to utilize the monsoon flows.

PS1-035

Anthropogenic and climate change effects on water quantity / quality of lakes - An assessment in the region of West Macedonia M. Stefouli1, S. Devene2 1Institute of Geology and Mineral Exploration, Athens, Greece, 2Ministry of Public Works, Athens, Greece

Lakes are valuable natural resources for water supply, food, irrigation, transportation, recreation, and hydropower. Water resources management requires sufficient, long-term, frequent and reliable data. Accordingly, it is necessary to reorganize the existing networks, using new technologies. About 65% of the surface waters of Greece are in its north-western part, in the periphery of West Macedonia. Some of the most valuable lakes of Europe in terms of biodiversity are located in this area. The Prespa / Ohrid and the Vegoritis lakes along with the Polifytos reservoir that are located in different watersheds were used as pilot project areas. Various anthropogenic factors influence these lake ecosystems. The collapse of the Communist regimes in the 1990s and the years of turbulent socio-economic transition during the rest of the decade was one such event. Additionally different legislation and water resource practices are employed in the region, while the socio-economic status of the countries (Albania, F.Y.R.OM., Greece) involved in the water management is different. Up to date information seems to be lacking or its access is difficult in this region. This is particularly the case for Macro Prespa , Ohrid lakes as they are transboundary lakes that are shared among the three countries. The objective of our research is to better understand the effects of anthropogenic land cover modification, on water quantity / quality of lakes by incorporating detailed information about land surface properties derived from Earth Observation data. The Earth observation techniques are linked to climate, socio-economics and water / eco-systems legislation so as to address lake vulnerability. The status of the lake ecosystems on long-term (decadal, annual) scales is analysed. For that purpose, we use multitemporal optical / thermal satellite images of Landsat ETM+, ASTER, ENVISAT systems and GIS techniques. Earth Observation techniques can be used for monitoring selected parameters of whole regions including transnational basins. Several parameters were extracted related to the description of catchments, surface areas of lakes, water level, hydrogeology and water quality characteristics. Changes in surface water quantity and quality in the wake of the collapse of the Communist regime have been documented across the region and in particular in Albania. Uniform results on a transnational area of 4769 km2 have been used to update the GIS database. The methodology proved to be cost effective and if it is to be used in conjunction with in situ observations and hydrological modelling, these observations from space have the potential to significantly improve the understanding of hydrological processes affecting lake basins in response to climate variability. Results show that action should be taken in order to preserve these valuable in terms of biodiversity lakes.

PS1-036

Climate change and hydrological response in the Agano River basin, Japan X. Ma1, T. Yoshikane1, M. Hara1, Y. Wakazuki1, H.G. Takahashi2, F. Kimura1 1Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan, 2Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan/Tokyo Metropolitan University, Japan

To evaluate the impact of climate change on snowfall in Japan, a hydrological simulation was made in the Agano River basin by using a regional climate model’s output. A hindcast experiment was carried out for the two decades from 1980 to 1999. The average correlation coefficient of 0.79 for the


as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37 43

monthly mean discharge in the winter season showed that the interannual variation of the river discharge could be reproduced and that the method can be used for climate change study. The future hydrological response to global warming in the 2070s was investigated using a pseudo-global-warming method. In comparison to data from the 1990s, the monthly mean discharge for the 2070s was projected to increase by approximately 43% in January and 55% in February, but to decrease by approximately 38% in April and 32% in May. The flood peak in the hydrograph was moved forward by approximately one month, changing from April in the 1990s to March in the 2070s. Furthermore, the projection for the 10-year average snowfall amount was projected to be approximately 49.5% lower in the 2070s than in the 1990s.

PS1-037

Study on the trend detection of the river flow in the Zayandehrud dam basin M.R. Yazdani1, A. Rafiaei2, J. Khoshhal Dastjerdi3, M. Mahdavi4 1PhD student of Climatology, Department of Climatology, University of Isfahan, Iran, 2MSc of Climatology, agriculture and Natural resources Center, Isfahan, Iran, 3Supervisor of Climatology, Department of Climatology, University of Isfahan, Iran, 4Supervisor of watershed management, Natural Resources College, University of Tehran, Iran

Abstract River flow is one of the main source of water supply and it need to a comprehensive

management especially in the arid lands. This management can be complicated due to some forcing like climate change. Climate change is one of the most important challenges among scientists and researchers. This phenomenon has a complex dynamic and time depending and it needs to an integrated and long time study that is carried out in two stages including detection and impact assessment. One of its probable impacts is on the water resources and river flow. In this study trend occurrence is evaluated in the river flow annual variables; namely mean, maximum and minimum in the Plasjan basin that located in the upstream of Zayanderud dam basin. This basin has a key role in the socio-economic conditions of the region. Parametric tests including T-test and regression method and non parametric tests of Mann Kendall and Spearman rho was used for trend detection in the river flow time series. Results indicated that there are not any linear and nonlinear significant trends in the annual maximum flow. But there are linear and nonlinear downward trend in the flow time series of mean and minimum that are statistically significant. Thus it is require to a comprehensive study of impact assessment in this basin due to decreasing trend of river flow in the study area and can cause more stress on water supply. Suitable management like adaptive management is necessary to increase adaptive capacity and diminish negative impacts of the climate change.

Keywords: Parametric test, nonparametric test, trend detection, climate change, Zayandehrud river basin.

PS1-038

Hydrological changes in the Mediterranean zone - Impacts of environmental modifications (changing climate) in the Merguellil catchment (central Tunisia) B. Chulli1, G. Favreau2, N. Jebnoun3 1Water Researches and Technologies Center, Borj Cedria Technopark, Soliman, Tunisia, 2IRD, Tunis, Tunisia, 3FST, Tunis, Tunisia

Typical of the Mediterranean situation, the Merguellil catchment (central Tunisia) has undergone rapid hydrological changes over the last decades. The most visible signs are a marked decrease in surface runoff in the upstream catchment and a complete change in the recharge processes of the Kairouan aquifer downstream. Fluctuations in rainfall have had a real but limited hydrological impact. Much more important are the consequences of human activities such as soil and water conservation works, small and large dams, pumping for irrigation. Several independent approaches were implemented: hydrodynamics, thermal surveys, geochemistry including isotopes. They helped to identify the different terms of the regional water balance and to characterize their changes over time. However, major uncertainties remain and our results may contradict previous interpretations or calculations.

Conservation works, now covering more than a quarter of the upstream catchment, drastically reduce the runoff production from rainy events lower than 40 mm. Wadi Merguellil now ends in the big El Haouareb dam that loses more than half of its water by infiltration through karstic fissures, and 30 % by evaporation, the rest being pumped or released. This dam was built in 1989 and has often dried up in the last decade.


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The major modifications in groundwater flow resulting from construction of the dam are observed in the geochemical tracers in the first seven kilometres downstream from the dam. Thermal measurements confirmed the recent invasion of new water. The rest of the Kairouan plain aquifer retains the signature of older recharge but the whole aquifer is affected by the decrease in the water-table (about 1 m per year), the consequence of the ever increasing pumping for irrigation.

PS1-039

Problem of river erosion and role of government - A case study of Ganga river basin in Murshidabad district of West Bengal, India S. Bose

Political Geography Division of Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

The Farakka Barrage which was constructed in 1975 across the upper stream of the Ganga River at Farakka in Murshidabad District of West Bengal in India to solve the problem of siltation and navigability of Kolkata Port has rather increased the intensity of Ganga River erosion in its upper bank. This has caused several problems like loss of fertile agricultural lands, large scale population displacement, international border disputes, marginalization of the rural communities living by the river basin and led to the formation of char lands on its left bank due to the deposition of the sediments. This is mainly because of government’s faulty plans and policies which are continuing over three decades since the inception of the barrage. There exist no rehabilitation programmes for the erosion victims and there is extremely poor participation of the majority of the people in decisions that affect their lives. Objectives: This paper talks about the need for good governance for sustainable water resource management and proper solutions to tackle the problem of river erosion in Murshidabad District. It talks about the border disputes between India and Bangladesh since demarcation of the international boundary between them is based on the course of the flow of Ganga , due to which illegal migration is taking place from both the countries. It also discusses the problem of rehabilitation and additional labour force in agriculture in Murshidabad affecting the agrarian economy of the country as a whole. What are the present governments plans to mitigate such problems? Methodology: Reports of both governments and nongovernmental organizations have been consulted and questionnaire survey was done for thirty households based on random sampling. Major findings: The Farakka barrage was built with the intension of inducing water into the Hugli River, a distributary of River Ganga to flush out the sediment load of Hugli estuary situated in the downstream before falling into the Bay of Bengal. The siltation problem remains unsolved and the port of Kolkata is not yet accessible to the large sea-going vessels. The barrage has obstructed the natural oscillation of the river within its meandering belts and this has choked the riverbed and reduced its cross-sectional area. No less than 10,000 people every year are evicted from their homelands by erosion and migrate to char land which has formed by the deposition of the river in its left bank, losing everything into the river. They start a new struggle for existence and compelled to live in a subhuman condition. During the partition of India in 1947, Ganga was chosen as the international boundary in this stretch of land. Erosion has wiped away many boundary posts at many places created demarcation problems. Conclusion: There exist very low level of technological adjustment and ill-directed planning from government’s side which are not sufficient to combat this problem. There is need for the efficient basin management plan.

THIRD PLENARY SESSION

TPS-040

Connectivities and linkages within the Danube basin (invited presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages within river basins) W. Mauser

Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Munich, Germany

Water flows in river basin follow distinct directions and thereby introduce unique natural upstream-downstream connectivities. They are typically uni-directional and cause water dependencies of the downstream regions on the water supplied from the upstream regions. These dependencies are as manifold as the water usage in the downstream regions and thereby can lead to the well known manifold upstream-downstream water conflicts. In a more holistic view it is not sufficient to take an isolated view on the water resource but rather include in the analysis the different water uses in the


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upstream and downstream region and the virtual water flows uses within the river basin. This view turns dependencies into linkages. The analysis of these linkages forms a basis for integrated water resources management. Despite intensive research a commonly accepted methodological approach is still missing especially under changing boundary conditions. It has to consider the energy, agriculture, industry, construction, transportation and tourism sector and should be based on a thorough assessment of the water related ecosystem services in different parts of the river basin. The presentation analyses connectivities and linkages within the 800 000 km² Danube river basin, which is shared by 14 very different countries. Based on the analysis future research questions are formulated.

TPS-041

Physical heterogeneity and socio-economic differences as determinants of change in the Danube basin (invited presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages within river basins) H.P. Nachtnebel

Universität für Bodenkultur, Wien, Austria

The objective of this paper is to identify and assess anthropogenic and environmental changes and their impacts on the water system in the Danube basin. Considering the period of the last 25 years political and subsequent socio-economic changes had substantial impact on the state of water resources and environment. Further impacts are expected due to climate change. The basin exhibits a large physical heterogeneity as well as a distinct upstream-downstream gradient in socio-economic development. Thus, the already observed and expected changes have to be regionally analysed and described. These gradients are seen as the key factors for water related changes.

Political and socio-economic changes The Danube river basin includes major areas of the territory of 14 counties with about 86 million

inhabitants. Fundamental political, institutional,and economic changes originated from the collapse of the socialist regime at the end of the 1980’s. Several of the riparian countries are not yet part of the European Union and thus the legislation and environmental standards differ substantially among the countries. There is a large North-South and West- East gradient in GDP per capita and also in political stability. The GDP per capita of the upstream countries is about 25 times higher compared to those in some downstream countries. The economic growth rate is larger in the downstream region although these markets are quite volatile. The efficiency of the utilisation of resources has been improved over the last two decades in the downstream part but a further increase in production efficiency is required.

Migration pressures in the past originated in armed conflicts and in civil war, as in Croatia, Bosnia-

Herzegovina, Serbia-Kosovo, and Moldova. Besides loosing people through migration, Ukraine has a negative population balance and the population is shrinking particularly fast. Moldova suffers under extreme poverty. More than anything else, migrants and their remittances contributed to the economic transformation and restructuring of several states in the Danube basin, particularly in Moldova, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro (OECD, 2009).

Changes in water and environmental management Substantial parts of the basin have low annual precipitation and consequently limited available

water resources. To cope with the deficit a large number of reservoirs has been constructed along the tributaries. For example, only in Romania more than 400 major dams and reservoirs have been built. Usually, reservoirs provide water for water supply, energy production, irrigation, and industrial supply. The main conflict is between agricultural water supply and other uses. In some countries, like Ukraine and Romania, the agricultural sector still requires more than 50 % of total water consumption. In Hungary and Moldova the share is above and around 30 % of total consumption. The challenges and problems of multipurpose water allocation have been growing in recent years because of a severe 10-year drought the region has experienced. The water flow in 1993 was the lowest in a century and also the 1994 discharges were quite low. In several sub-catchments extreme low flows were also observed the year 2003.

With respect to flood protection most of the length of the main stem of the Danube River and the

major tributaries are controlled by flood levees. Natural alluvial flood plain areas have declined from about 26,000 square kilometres to about 6,000 square kilometres within the last fifty years. Compared with the 19th century, less than 16% of the former floodplain area of 41,605 km² remained.


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The main pressures for environmental pollution originate from nutrient emissions and organic loads. Nonpoint pollution from agriculture is a major issue in the whole basin. Thus, only four of the 11 important transboundary groundwater bodies have been identified as not at risk concerning chemical status. Overall due to modified agricultural practice and stepwise improvement of the waste water treatment capacity, nutrient loads have significantly decreased over the past 20 years, although they are still above the levels of the 1960’s. But it should be also considered that agriculture in Europe is undergoing pronounced structural changes. In contrast to Western European countries, where these changes took place over a comparatively long period of time, the changes in Eastern Europe were fast paced, almost revolutionary. Summarising, the changes have led to fragmented use of agricultural acreages and comparatively small livestock According to the RBM plan (2009) the number of water bodies at risk increased from upstream to downstream countries. Many agglomerations in the lower part of the basin lack still from acceptable wastewater treatment technology and are therefore key contributors to organic pollution. Untreated industrial waste water increases the pollution level, especially in the tributaries while the main stem has still a remarkable self-purification capacity. Untreated waste water is an evident problem (between 60% and 100%) in several countries, especially in Moldova, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Romania, and Croatia. Polluted surface and groundwater systems together with lacking or insufficient water purification led to health problems of the population in several regions of the basin, especially in the lower part of the basin. Future domestic water supply would require improved treatment and would thus result in higher costs which cannot be covered because of low or non-existing water price and because of the low income of the people. Several of the problems are restricted to the national level because pollution and their consequences take place within a country. But some problems such as eutrophication and the release of hazardous substances to the water system have a clear basin wide dimension.

The most important pressures on the river morphology and sediment transport were related to

hydropower generation, flood protection and navigation. Thus, the number of surface water bodies identified provisionally as heavily modified is very high throughout the entire basin.

Climate change impacts It can be concluded from several regional climate models that by the end of this century the

increase in the mean annual temperature will be about 2,5 -3,5 0C in the upper region and above 4,0 0C in the lower part. The rainfall is expected to decrease in the South- East by about 15-20 %, especially in Serbia, Romania, Ukraine, while in the upper part the annual rainfall amount seems to stable. The precipitation in spring and summer is expected to decrease while the winter precipitation should be stable or even increase. Droughts are expected to occur more frequent and over longer periods. Implications of climate change on the water sector are seen in an increase of irrigation schemes which would put surface and groundwater systems under increased pressure. units.

In the last 20 years several extreme events like floods and droughts hit the basin. Romania

suffered 2004, 2005 and 2006 from extreme flood events. The upstream part was exposed to heavy rainfall events and subsequent flooding in 2002, and partly in 2005. In some studies for the downstream areas it is concluded that uncontrolled deforestation and poor maintenance of hydraulic structure aggravated flood impacts. Due to the large uncertainty in the available GCMs and RCMs no clear conclusions can be drawn with respect to frequency changes of climate change induced extreme events.

TPS-042

Connectivities and linkages within the Volta Basin (invited presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages within river basins) Charles A. Biney

Volta Basin Authority, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

The Volta is a transboundary river, which is shared by six countries in West Africa; Bénin, Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali and Togo. Characterized by a north-south gradient in rainfall distribution, the basin spans various ecological zones, from the Sahelian through the Sudanian to the Gulf of Guinea. The main water uses in the basin include hydropower production, domestic and industrial water supply and rainfed and irrigated crop production.

Within the last five decades, the basin has experienced significant ecological and environmental changes as a result of increasing anthropogenic and other natural influences. Major developments that have contributed to large scale hydrologic and biogeochemical impacts include hydropower dam


as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37 47

construction, rapid expansion of small reservoirs and urbanization. Specific impacts include flooding, deforestation, erosion and the spread of water-borne diseases.

During the last two decades, and with increasing availability of data and information, institutional and policy reforms have been initiated in the riparian countries leading to adoption of Integrated Water Resources Management principles and establishment of transboundary water resources management processes. In spite of these achievements, sustainable water resources management in the Volta basin still faces many challenges including the impacts of poverty, climate change and inadequate institutions.

Water governance in the future will take into account not only connectivities and linkages within the Volta basin, but also driving forces originating from outside the basin such as global/ regional trade, international policies and atmospheric and oceanic impacts. To achieve this requires, among others, creation of wider collaborative networks, collection of new data and information, awareness creation especially at the policy and decision-making level and institutional capacity building.

FPS-069

Impacts of National and International Actors on River Basin Cooperation - The Case of the River Rhine (invited presentation to topic: Impacts of national and international actors on river basin processes) J. Leentvaar, M.A. Hofstra, E.D. Bozkir, I.D. Frijters

UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands and Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment

The success of transboundary river management is often corelated with the collective efforts of different actors involved in and affected by the river system. As a unique case of success in transboundary river regime development, Rhine river case represents an example, where the actions of different actors played significant roles in shaping the regime and making it function up to now. This paper provides an overview of Rhine regime development with an emphasis on national and international actors involved in the process as determinants of the success. It aims to present key drivers for and features of the cooperation among these actors which made this regime unique and successful. Even though actions of actors would vary and cooperation negotiations would follow a different path in other transboundary river cases, Rhine case may still serve as the example of an alternative approach which leads to a sustainable river management plan at the end.


CCI2-044

The impact of water pricing in an arid river basin in Morocco considering the conjunctive use of ground- and surface water, water quality aspects and climate change C. Heidecke1, T. Heckelei2 1Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, Germany, 2Institute for Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn, Germany

Climate change is likely to lead to more unreliable water supply in the future, especially in arid regions of the world. A hydro-economic river basin model is used to analyse the effects of an IPCC climate change scenario on water use and agricultural income in the arid Middle Drâa river basin in Morocco. The model considers problems of irrigation water salinity and the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and their interconnections. We use REMO model data provided by the IMPETUS project (Speth et al. 2010) to derive a maximum likelihood density estimate of current and future water supplies that are introduced as a random variable into the mathematical programming approach for Monte Carlo simulations. The paper extends the work by Heidecke and Heckelei (2010) by simulating management options taking water pricing as an example. The effects on water use and different economic indicators are evaluated. Results show that climate change impacts negatively on irrigation water availability, and hence leads to a reduction in farm income. The effects of water pricing as a management option analysed depend on the assumptions of water quality of irrigation water, overall water supply and the scope of the water charge.

Keywords: climate change, conjunctive water management, hydro economic river basin models, water quality

References:


48 as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37

Heidecke, C., Heckelei, T. (2010): Impacts of changing water inflow distributions on irrigation and farm income along the Drâa River in Morocco. Agricultural Economics 41: 135-146.

Speth, P., Diekkrüger, B. (2006): IMPETUS West Africa: An Integrated Approach to the Efficient Management of Scarce Water Resources in West Africa: Case studies for selected river catchments in different climatic zones. Second Final Report. Period: 1.5.2003 - 31.7.2006.

CCI2-045

Implications of climate change and socio-economic development on future states of global freshwater resources F. Voß, M. Flörke, E. Teichert, I. Bärlund

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany

There are many uncertainties in our understanding of the current water cycle and how it will develop in the future. Changes in the hydrological cycle induced by global warming may affect society more than any other changes, e.g. with regard to flood and drought risks and/or changing water availability. Globally, the supply of freshwater far exceeds human requirements. However, in many countries current levels of water use are unsustainable, with systems vulnerable to collapse from even small changes in water availability. In these regions water availability and water demands are already heavily outbalanced due to natural and socio-economic variability. Continuing population growth, economic development and climate change further increase the number of people living in areas with severe water stress, a situation exacerbated by the need to maintain river flows for ecological services.

Scientifically-based assessments of potential impacts on water resources provide a basis for the society to adapt to these changes. Although the focus of such assessments has tended to be climate change, socio-economic changes do also have a significant impact on water availability across the main use sectors, i.e. domestic, manufacturing, energy and agricultural. As a prerequisite for such integrated impact assessments detailed scenario assumptions are required showing how our future may unfold until the end of the 21st century. They reveal not only implications on climate change but also on environment and society and span a variety of different pathways.

The described developments require an assessment tool which combines both the simulation of water availability and its dependency on climatic conditions as well as the modelling of water use impaired by climatic, social and economic changes. For this purpose we developed and applied the integrated model WaterGAP. WaterGAP (Water - Global Assessment and Prognosis) is a global water model that combines geographical explicit computations of water availability and water withdrawals on the river basin scale world-wide with a spatial resolution of 0.5°x0.5° grid cell size.

In impact assessments as well as in adaptation or vulnerability assessments uncertainty derives from a number of sources including model uncertainties, the assumptions about scenario parameters especially those affecting alternative socio-economic development pathways, the magnitude of error propagation through integrated modelling systems and uncertainties in the underlying datasets. Herein we will concentrate on data uncertainty for both socio-economic and climate development. We will make use of different bias-corrected climate input data sets as provided by the EU-WATCH project combined with different socio-economic driving forces. Finally, water stress is used as an indicator to estimate future impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on water resources in different regions of the World.

CCI2-046

Interpreting global hydrological changes from climate model projections F.C. Sperna Weiland1, L.P.H. van Beek2, J.C.J. Kwadijk1, M.F.P. Bierkens2 1Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands, 2Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

Climate change is expected to have significant impact on river runoff regimes. However, the available climate change projections result in different and sometimes even contradicting changes. Water management strategies should be robust and will have to respond to the variety of possible changes instead of focusing on the most reliable projection. Such a robust approach requires hydrological changes derived from a large ensemble of climate models, translated into a plausible projection accompanied by usable uncertainty information. Moreover, the application for water management strategies requires that focus is not restricted to changes in mean discharge. Changes in extremes and seasonality should be considered as well.

We derived future hydrological changes from an ensemble of 12 GCMs for 20 large rivers for the IPCC SRES scenarios A1B and A2, using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. Results show


as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37 49

that differences in predicted change between the scenarios are small, while differences between ensemble members may be large. However, by considering the change per ensemble member with respect to its year-to-year variability, consistent results from the ensemble of GCMs could be derived: By 2100 the GCMs predict a consistent decrease in runoff for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge of Monsoon influenced rivers slightly increases, while in the Arctic regions runoff increases and regimes show a phase shift with peaks occurring earlier in time.

Still, our study shows that results from the different GCMs diverge widely as a result of the large discrepancies in precipitation amounts and projections within the ensemble of GCMs. To improve hydrological projections, interaction of the climatological and hydrological disciplines is required. At this stage advances are made by the inclusion of the full range of hydrological processes in global climate models.

CCI2-047

Impacts of climate change on rainfed agriculture in a semi-arid zone - A case study from Sudan M. Sh. Ahmed

Water Management and Irrigation Institute, University of Gezira, Wadmedani, Sudan

Sudan is one of the Nile basin countries. The Nile water Agreement in 1959 has stipulated a limited share for Sudan in Nile River waters. Thus, Rainfed agriculture has governed Sudan's agricultural expansion and food security. Negative climate changes will cause disruption in livelihood generation and environment, especially in rural areas where people depend on rainfed agriculture. This study aims at answering question of whether there is an indication of a climate change in the semi arid zone of Sudan or not; if it does, what it is impact on rainfed agriculture and what would be the sustainable mitigation and adaptation actions that should be taken? The descriptive statistics show that the semi arid zone has experienced decreases of 16% (92 mm) and 15% (13 days) in annual rainfall and cropping season length, respectively, compared to a baseline (1960s). Sowing and harvesting dates of cropping season have been disrupted, too. These changes have been used to predict/simulate sorghum yield under pessimistic conditions, using AQUACROP program. A reduction of 37% is predicted when annual rainfall is decreased to 250 mm. This will be followed by a decrease of 10% in transpiration due to the increase in evaporation. Accordingly, rainwater productivity will drop from 0.49 to 0.13 kg/m3. It is also found that the deterioration in agricultural conditions will accompanied with deterioration in ecosystem services i.e. forest. For rainfed agriculture, rainwater harvesting is a promising mitigation and adaptation technique to climate change. The two consecutive on-farm experiments indicate that in situ rainwater harvesting techniques (chisel and furrow) in average could increase yield by 412%. Meanwhile, soil water content is increased in average by 92% over the control plot. Such techniques are cost effective, especially for poor traditional farmers. The adoption rate however is low. Attempts since 19080s have been made to introduce rainwater harvesting, but have failed, in Sudan. This failure was attributed to lack of technical know how and inconsideration of socioeconomic status. Increasing adoption rate may transform farmers' mentality into investment rather than risk management.

This work is a part of a Ph. D. study. The Author would like to Acknowledge the DAAD for providing Fund.

CCI2-048

Impact of global change on hydrology and soil degradation - Scenario analysis for the semi-arid Drâa catchment (South Morocco) B. Diekkrüger1, H. Busche1, A. Klose1, S. Klose2, C. Rademacher3, O. Schulz1 1Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Germany, 2Steinmann Institute of Geology, Mineralogy and Paleontology, University of Bonn, Germany, 3Department of Cultural and Social Anthropology, University of Cologne, Germany

The Drâa catchment (30,000km²) in Morocco reaching from the southern declivity of the High Atlas (up to 4,070 m a.s.l.) to the Saharan foreland (450 m a.s.l.) is highly vulnerable towards Global Change concerning hydrology and soil degradation. Relief energy is high in the mountainous areas of the High Atlas and Antiatlas and soils are generally shallow and feature low organic matter contents. Precipitation events are extremely variable in time and space and vegetation cover is sparse due to the semi-arid to hyper-arid climate and substantial overgrazing. Snow storage in the High Atlas Mountains is important for reservoir filling but extremely sensitive to Climate Change. Hydrological


50 as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37

processes are controlled by shallow soils and sparse vegetation. Soil erosion in the valley affects soil quality and fertility at the local scale, but also causes siltation of the reservoir.

The catchment is hydrologically divided into two equally sized parts by a reservoir which acts as a sediment trap. Bathymetric surveys show that the reservoir has already lost approximately 25 % of its original capacity in the first 26 years of its existence due to siltation. The oases downstream of the reservoir depend on water release from the reservoir and groundwater availability. Groundwater pumping for irrigation represents the most important consumption. With decreasing water availability from the reservoir, the aquifers are depleted and soil as well as groundwater salinity increases. Measurements and simulations show an increase in salinity with increasing distance from the reservoir, which is due to enrichment of the aquifers with salts.

Scenarios of climate change based on the downscaled results of the regional climate model REMO as well as scenarios of socio-economic development are used to quantify the impact of Global Change on water resources and soil degradation. Socio-economic development does not only depend on internal but mainly on external drivers. Political decision whether the Drâa valley will receive support from the government influence socio-economic development, water demand, and use of other natural resources. Labour migration may account for a substantial part of the livelihood but if income generated is invested in motor pumps, pressure on water resources will increase.

Approaches and results from the GLOWA-IMPETUS are presented and discussed with a focus on the Drâa valley. Scenarios are developed and quantified using dynamic simulation models. Although the Drâa valley is not a very large catchment, distinct scale dependencies are observed ranging from small scale hydrological and erosional processes to political decisions acting on the entire catchment. Options for action show the same range of scales from local scale erosion protection measures to basin wide water management options.

References Speth, P. et al.(Eds.) Impacts of Global Change on the Hydrological Cycle in West and Northwest

Africa. Springer, Heidelberg, Germany. In press.

CCI2-049

Quantifying the impact of climate change on water resources at the basin scale on five continents - A unified approach R.G. Taylor1, M.C. Todd2, D.G. Kingston3, S. Gosling4, N. Arnell4 1Department of Geography, University College London, UK, 2Department of Geography, University of Sussex, UK, 3Department of Geography, University of Otago, New Zealand, 4Walker Institute, University of Reading, UK

Analyses of the impact of climate change on basin-scale freshwater resources commonly employ a diverse range of climate and socio-economic scenarios that complicate inter-basin comparisons. To quantify the impacts of climate change on basin-scale water resources and uncertainty therein, we apply a consistent range of high-resolution (0.5º x 0.5º), multi-model climate scenarios to drive a series of basin-scale hydrological models as well as a global hydrological model (MacPDM) on five continents including Rivers Mekong and Okavango as well as tributaries of Rivers Mackenzie (Liard), Parana (Rio Grande), Nile (Mitano), Yangtze (Xiangxi) and Yellow (Huangfuchan). We report on the quantitative impacts of prescribed increases in global mean temperature (1 to 6°C). Uncertainty is estimated from the application of a subset of the IPCC AR4 CMIP3 model datasets that span the range of precipitation projections (CCCMA-CGCM31, CSIRO-Mk3.0, IPSL-CM4, ECHAM5/MPI, NCAR-CCSM30, UKMO-HadGEM1, HadCM3) and use of hydrological model ensembles. The quantified impacts of climate change are characterised by substantial uncertainty in projected mean river discharge which, for a 2°C rise in global mean temperature, ranges from +38% to -37% from baseline (1961-1990) for the River Okavango to +18% to -20% from baseline for the Rio Grande. In contrast, an increase in low flows (Q95) is consistently observed for the subarctic River Liard and sub-tropical River Xiangxi. Non-linear responses to increases in global mean air temperature are observed in projections of mean, low (Q95) and high (Q05) river discharge for the Rivers Mekong, Mitano, and Liard. Current research aims to characterise the nature of non-linear responses and apply new metrics of physical water availability to basin projections that explicitly consider intra-annual flows and available storage.


as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37 51

CCI2-050a

Impact of global change on water resources in the Ouémé catchment, Benin S. Giertz, D. Diekkrüger, B. Höllermann

Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Germany

Today, fresh water has already become a critically scarce resource in many regions of the world. In many developing countries insufficient water supply infrastructure aggravates this problem. With the ongoing global change and population growth water security will become one of the major problems in the 21st century.

Regarding the annual water balance the West African Country Benin is not suffering from physical water scarcity. Nevertheless, investigations show that water scarcity occurs at the local scale, especially at the end of the dry season, which is caused by reduced water availability in this period and particularly by the inadequate water supply infrastructure. For an efficient long-term planning of water management the future development of the water resources and the water demand has to be analysed on different temporal and spatial scales, particularly regarding the impact of global change on the water resources.

In the presented study, which is part of the GLOWA-IMPETUS project, the effects of land use/land cover change, climate change, and demographic development on water availability and water demand in the Ouémé catchment (49,285 km2) in Benin are quantified based on an interdisciplinary scenario analysis. To calculate water availability, the output of a regional climate model was linked to a hydrological model that also considered land use change calculated by a cellular automata model. Future water requirements were computed by linking population growth and per capita water demand, which was derived from a regional survey as well as the developments in industry and irrigation agriculture. The results reveal a significant decrease in future water availability (surface water and groundwater) for the IPCC climate scenarios A1B and B1 due to a decrease in rainfall and an increase in evapotranspiration. Using the water management model WEAP it can be shown that water shortages during the dry season will increase in future scenarios.

CCI2-050b

Downscaling rainfall in the Blue Nile basin for use in hydrological modeling M. Menker1, B. Schütt1, S. Awulachew2, M. McCartney2, S.S. Demissie2 1Department of Earth Sciences, Freie university of Berlin, Berlin, Germany, 2International Water Management Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

A statistical downscaling approach was used to downscale monthly rainfall data in the upper Blue Nile Basin (UBN) for hydrological modeling of the water resources under future climate. The UBN is the source of the Nile and contributes more than 60% of the Nile flow. Rainfall downscaling in the tropics is not straight forward because of the strong ocean atmosphere coupling and strong variation in the annual cycle between large scale predictors and local variables. Consequently, five downscaling domains were considered. These are the Arabian Peninsula, Southern Tropical Indian Ocean, Southern Tropical Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Guinea, and North Africa and Eastern Mediterranean region. The result of monthly correlation analysis between area averaged NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis monthly data from these domains and observed station data showed mixed results. When monthly and seasonal correlations were considered no single domain was better than the others. As a result, a new combined domain was synthesized from the five, by extracting the months with the highest correlation from each domain. The use of combined rather than a single domain improved the correlation between the predictors and predictand. Surface and atmospheric variables; geopotential height, relative humidity, zonal wind, meridional wind, mean sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and large scale atmospheric precipitation were used as predictors to establish Statistical Downscaling Models (SDMs) for ten station in the basin using multiple regression analysis. The outputs of the SDMs are validated against observed station data. The SDMs were found to capture the trend of the monthly rainfall in most of the months at most stations. Compared to observation the total rainfall amounts for the months of January, February, March, July, August and December are modeled within 5-15%, and for the months of May, October and June within 16-30%. However, the SDMs overestimated the observed rainfall by more than 30% in September and November, which indicates the need for further research. Finally the SDMs from the ten stations in the UBN are forced with ECHAM5 model outputs using the IPCC A1B climate change scenario to generate future climate. An interpolation scheme is used to estimate the future climate of the whole basin using the SDMs simulations.


52 as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37

CONNECTIVITIES AND LINKAGES WITHIN RIVER BASINS

CLW-051

Optimal water allocation in the Middle Olifants sub-basin of South Africa - Implications for improving water use efficiency T. Linz, J. Kloos, D. Tsegai

ZEF, Bonn, Germany

With the political changes in South Africa in the early 1990´s, the South African government introduced a reform process in the water sector towards an enhanced and more equitable water management system. Using data from the Middle Olifants sub basin in South Africa, this paper analyzes existing water allocation situations and applies optimization model to investigate optimal intra- and inter-regional allocations. Results show higher benefit from inter-regional water allocation. Reducing water supply levels to conform to the current policy of sustainable water supply policy, it can be shown that although water supply is reduced by approximately 50%, total benefits from water are only reduced by 5% and 11% for inter- and intra-regional allocation regimes respectively. These results indicate that water re-allocation can serve as mechanism to compensate for the effects of water scarcity.

Key words: Optimal allocation, water, IWRM, South Africa, Middle Olifants

CLW-052

Analysis of hydrologic alterations in the rapidly changing environment in the Pearl River Delta, South China Y.D. Chen1, Q. Zhang2 1Dept of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China, 2Dept of Water Resources and Environment, Zhongshan University, Guangzhou, China

Hydrologic regimes fluctuate in response to climatic variations and human influences. Over the past three decades, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) has been the fastest developing region in China. Human activities mainly associated with urbanization and industrialization in the region have been rapidly changing the environment, making the PRD crisscross river network an ideal area for studying human-induced hydrologic alternations. In this study, we first used linear regression method to systematically evaluate the long-term variations of extreme water levels defined as exceeding/falling below certain thresholds (mean±std) across the delta. It was found that the low water level has been significantly dropping in the upper PRD while the opposite situation has occurred in the lower PRD. Secondly, we used Mann-Kendall trend test and Kriging interpolation method to detect the spatial and temporal patterns of the trends of the extreme high and low water levels related to different magnitudes of streamflow. The results indicate that the high (low) water level along the Pearl River estuary has been increasing and the inner delta region is characterized by decreasing high (low) water level in high and normal streamflow periods, but by increasing high (low) water level in the low stream periods. This phenomenon can be attributed to more significant impact of tidal process on water level in dry season than in flood season. Finally, we applied Beyes model and Lepage test to detect change point(s) of water level time series and analyzed the associated statistical properties of high/low water levels in summer (Jun, Jul, Aug) and winter (Dec, Jan, Feb). With respect to winter mean low water level, 14 out of 19 stations had two change points. The first abrupt change occurred around 1980 and the second abrupt change in the early 1990s. As for summer mean high water level, 12 out of 19 stations have only one change point. The timing of change points of summer mean high water level is similar to that of winter mean low water level. Identification and analysis of the causes for the hydrologic alternations in terms of water level will help us understand the impacts of human activities and thus provide important scientific evidence for managing the water environment in the PRD region.


as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37 53

CLW-053

Climate change adaptation in river basins - Cross-scale connectivities in climate impacts and socio-economic uncertainties S.C. van Pelt1, R. Swart2 1Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands, 2Alterra, Wageningen, the Netherlands

Global action is required to mitigate the consequences of climate change on the long-term. Most adaptive responses to climate change are on national, regional or local scale but mainly depend on changes in the continental and global climate and the water cycle. Currently, many governments as well as river basin managers develop adaptation programmes without paying much attention to international connections in natural and governance systems. Uncertainties with respect both to the causal chain from global climate change to local impacts and to unpredictable socio-economic and political developments complicate decision-making processes. This paper addresses two associated challenges, focusing on the Rhine basin.

First, the “classical” top-down approach to climate change impact management - developing “optimal” adaptation options that respond to potential climate impacts derived from downscaled global climate models - is not the only or necessarily the best way to deal with climate change and impacts on the water sector. In particular, it can be questioned if “optimal” solutions can meaningfully be determined in the context of large uncertainties, and this climate-centered perspective is often disconnected from local non-climate priorities and concerns. Bottom-up approaches, which often have a strong participatory component, combine attention to local conditions and priorities with external stresses such as the potential impacts from global climate change, leading to options which emphasize resilience to external stresses such as climate change and are robust under a range of possible futures rather than optimal under a specific scenario.

Second, socio-economic and governance connectivities in climate change adaptation in water management are not limited to global connectivities, such as virtual water trade through agricultural commodities. Particularly in internationally shared water basins like the Rhine, the current tendency to focus adaptation efforts on potential local impacts to be addressed by local measures ignores important cross-scale connectivities. This could lead to adaptation actions which are not effective (because they do not address higher scale influences) and not efficient (because other options at river basin level could offer advantages). As the paper will illustrate, a focus on local problems and solutions neglects the potential offered by taking a larger, river basin scale approach, which in the case of the Rhine basin requires transnational scientific and policy collaboration.

CLW-054

High resolution mapping of global reservoirs and dams and their downstream river impacts B. Lehner 1 , C. Reidy Liermann 2 , C. Revenga 3 , B. Fekete 4 , C. Vörösmarty 4 , P. Crouzet 5 , P. Döll 6 , M. Endejan 7 , K. Frenken 8 , J. Magome 9 , C. Nilsson 10 , J. Robertson 3 , R. Rödel 11 , N. Sindorf 12

, D. Wisser 13 1McGill University, Montreal, Canada, 2University of Washington, Seattle, USA, 3The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, USA, 4The City College of New York, New York, USA, 5European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark, 6University of Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany, 7Global Water System Project, Bonn, Germany, 8Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy, 9University of Yamanashi, Yamanshi, Japan, 10Umea University, Umea, Sweden, 11University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany, 12World Wildlife Fund, Washington DC, USA, 13University of New Hampshire, Durham, USA

Despite established recognition of the many critical environmental and social tradeoffs associated with dams and reservoirs, global data sets describing the characteristics and geographical distribution of these structures have been notoriously incomplete. To bridge this data gap, the Global Water System Project (GWSP) coordinated an international research effort with the goal to provide a single, geographically explicit and reliable database for the scientific community. Experts from eleven institutions collaborated in a series of workshops to develop the methodological approach for the new compilation: the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) database. The development of GRanD primarily aimed at compiling all available global reservoir and dam data; correcting them through extensive cross-validation, error checking, and identification of duplicate records, attribute conflicts, or mismatches; completing missing information from new sources or statistical approaches; and geospatially referencing them to polygons depicting reservoir outlines. We believe that with GRanD’s increased spatial accuracy and attribute coverage a highly versatile geodatabase is now available that


54 as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37

supports new regional or global analyses at unprecedented spatial resolution, sophistication and reliability. In this presentation, we first introduce the GRanD database and then demonstrate its utility by discussing the results of some initial applications.

GRanD currently contains 6,834 records of reservoirs and their associated dams with a cumulative storage capacity of 6,150 km3, concentrated mostly in the USA, China, and India. Based on a statistical extrapolation from these records, we derived that about 2.3 million reservoirs larger than 0.1 ha may exist worldwide, with a total storage capacity of approximately 7,550 km3. In a pilot assessment we linked GRanD to the global river network of the HydroSHEDS database (Lehner et al. 2008) to investigate the degree of regulation that the reservoirs cause on downstream flows. We identified river reaches with a total length of 573,000 km being affected by large upstream reservoirs that regulate more than 2% of the mean annual discharge. These impacted reaches include nearly half (46.6%) of the world’s large rivers with flows exceeding 1,000 m3/s, which are likely to be of high regional or international importance, including far-reaching ecological and socio-economic aspects. Finally, a sensitivity analysis revealed that smaller reservoirs have enormous implications on the total amount of impacted river reaches despite their small role in total global reservoir capacity.

CLW-055

Climate variability, population pressure, and water availability in the Lake Chad basin S. Vassolo1, R. Geerken2 1Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover, Germany, 2GTZ, N'Djaména, Chad

The Lake Chad Basin is located in the central part of northern Africa and expands over Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Sudan, Libya, and Algeria. It is an endorheic basin of about 2,300,000 km2 with hyper-arid to arid climate in the north, semi-arid or sahelian in the centre, and subtropical in the south. Mean annual precipitation varies from less than 50 mm in the north to over 1,000 mm in the south. High temperatures throughout the whole year lead to levels of annual evapotranspiration of around 2,200 mm.

From the hydrological point of view, the basin is subdivided by the 14° north parallel into an inactive basin in the north and an active in the south. Two main river sub-basins feed the Lake Chad, the Chari-Logone that brings water from the South and the Komadugu-Yobe that flows mostly in a west-east direction along the Sahel zone.

Both hydrological sub-basins are very sensitive to climatic variability and sort of over-react to droughts, which are well-known as devastating in the region. For example, the last long-term drought period from 1973 to 1984 led to the reduction of the lake open water surface from 21,000 km2 to 1,700 km2.

Further, the region is characterized by a high population growth-rate with figures between 1.97% in Nigeria and 3.66% in Niger (CIA-World Factbook). This means an enormous pressure over the resources because the total population duplicates every 25 years.

This work will show the effect of climate variability on water availability for the last 60 years based on field data. Precipitation has increased since the mid-80’s to reach almost the levels of pre-drought. However, due probably to population pressure, discharges do not increase as expected and the lake does not recover.

CLW-056

Effect of socio-economic development and climate change scenarios to the Oder river - modelling future nutrient emissions J. Hürdler, M. Venohr

Leibniz-Institue of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany

Nutrient emissions by river systems are one of the main pollution sources into the Baltic Sea. Annual emissions and loads have been used to describe general nutrient fluxes. By the recently improved and implemented method to calculate monthly fluxes with MONERIS the link between spatial patterns of nutrient emissions and their temporal effect on water quality aspects in aquatic systems has been established.

Beyond that, an implementation of development scenarios concerning socio-economic, land-use and climate change helps to achieve meaningful results. The monthly results suggest that temporal variation of emissions and loads are mainly driven by hydrology and temperature. Climate change scenarios assume a decrease in the precipitation and run-off and subsequently cause a decrease in the nutrient emissions and loads. The development scenarios range from increased to decreased


as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37 55

agricultural activities. As a result emissions from agriculture will increase or decrease, too. Although the effect of the development scenarios is in general rather low, but a combination of increased land-use and decreasing water availability may cause significant changes in in-stream loads and concentrations. Therefore loads to the lagoon decrease, but at the same time higher nutrient concentrations and possible negative effects on the water quality can be expected.

This delivers helpful arguments for management options and the implementation of management plans. Results of the calculations show significant changes for the future development of nutrient emissions to the Oder River Basin and loads to the Szczecin Lagoon.

This research is financially supported by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the European Union (EU).

INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL AND NATIONAL GOVERNANCE ON WATER RESOURCES IN RIVER BASINS

GOV1-057

Cross-scale coordination through integrated water governance - Comparison of experiences on appropriate institutional architectures from different countries A. Klinke1, J. Balsiger2, E. Störmer1 1Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland, 2Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürich, Switzerland

Water provides diverse functions that influence interactions between natural and social systems. Existing and new pressures have raised issues at the intersection of societal demands, ecological integrity and resource security. As a consequence, there have been calls for more integrated water governance through the integration of water use, water protection and protection from water. In many countries there is a need for enhancing coordination and integration across water-related scales including sectors such as water supply, wastewater treatment and hydropower generation where key water policies and programs are institutionally separated and management units are highly fragmented.

This paper focuses on 'scale' as an interdisciplinary analytical concept. Scale plays a key role within and across natural and social systems, particularly with respect to water, where scales of space, jurisdiction, political authority, policy instruments, organization, and management are crucial dimensions for analyzing water governance dynamics. Cross-scale coordination is important for integrated water governance, as well as the development of adaptive capacity through organizational learning. Whereas previous studies have mainly built on scale as concept to describe the nesting of government jurisdictions from local to global, we expand the notion of scale to six other variables: space, economic sectors, political authority, management, organization, and policy instruments. Such an understanding of scale, we argue, generates a more powerful theoretical tool that can produce more refined insights into the widely popular but rarely specified concept of integration.

Using the lens of within- and cross-scale integration, the paper presents the result of a comparative study of integrated water governance approaches in five countries (Germany, Austria, UK, Netherlands, US). This research is one of several work packages of a policy-oriented project on integrated water governance in Switzerland, which seeks to identify appropriate forms, structures, processes, and instruments of integrated water governance with adaptive capacity. Funding for this project is provided by the Swiss National Science Foundation under the National Research Programme "Sustainable Water Management."

GOV1-058

Multilateral Environmental Agreements - A Catalyst for Interlinkages in River Basin Management? A Case Study of Pahang River Basin, Malaysia J. Lee

UNESCO Centre for Water Law, Policy and Science Dundee University, Dundee, United Kingdom

The degradation of freshwater resources, associated with development, especially land conversion, water abstractions, pollution and overharvesting and the improved hydrological knowledge have led to the extension of river basin governance to all land and water-related resources in watersheds by adopting an ecosystem approach. Holistic governance of river basins advocates for the


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wise use of freshwater resources, propounding the need to implement integrated water resources management (IWRM) practices in the utilisation and management of freshwater resources. The drainage basin approach underlying the concept of IWRM necessitates recognising the interdependence of all living and nonliving resources in the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems within watersheds. Interlinkages efforts that focus on cohesion, synergies and coordination between Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) are being carried out. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) is working together with other conventions, including the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance especially as Waterfowl Habitat (Ramsar Convention) in the promotion of interinstitutional interlinkages. The conformance of environment protection obligations imposed under CBD and Ramsar implemented through domestic legislation, have positive effects on river basin, due to the physical unity of a drainage basin. The case study of Pahang River Basin (PRB) is a good case study example to demonstrate the influence of international environmental regime on river basin governance. The interactions between the CBD regime and the Wetland regime have acted as a catalyst in creating interlinkages initiatives and promoting the integrated management of Pahang River Basin.

GOV1-059

Water governance in South Africa - global vs. local, legality vs. reality S.I. Stuart-Hill

University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa

The South African constitution enshrines the right to water for the wellbeing of its people. Recent IPCC reports and hydroclimatic research show that this will undoubtedly be endangered by projected climate change with which is associated enhanced climate variability. Additionally, the South African government aims at meeting the Millennium Development Goals, many of which are water related, by 2013. Hence, South Africa faces huge water challenges in years to come.

Under this pressure the question is raised if South Africa’s regulatory water frameworks and laws are supportive of adaptation to climate change and if there are ways of incorporating climatic and other uncertainties into decision taking processes, e.g. by modelling and enhanced understanding. A key problem in the implementation of the South African Water Act (1998) is a skills shortage, which is also reflected in a variety of missing implementation steps of the Act, e.g.

- institutions that have not been established, such as the Catchment Management Agencies (CMAs), thus resulting in Catchment Management Strategies still missing

- an inadequate regulatory and governance monitoring system - gaps apparent on the more regional/local level such as the establishment of Water User

Associations and other participatory groups in order to secure more public involvement and transparency in water management

Nevertheless, promising aspects are evident in that the South African water law and regulatory system offers sufficient flexibility and openness to cope with an adaptive and participatory management approach. This is also caused by global policies (e.g. UNFCCC) and pressures from national as well as global actors (e.g. African National Congress, international funding agencies). First and most important is the influence of the IWRM concept which is the grounding of all regulations. Hence, a SWOT analysis shows a variety of opportunities and strengths.

But from interviews with authorities evidence has been gathered that many live in multiple stressor environments and are unsure how to implement the Act as well as the principles of IWRM. Furthermore, regional differences and implementation gaps have become evident from expert interviews. Overall guidance is needed with South Africa’s highly innovative and integrated water management approach. Beyond this the challenge is faced how to incorporate climate change adaptation into day-to-day decision taking. Water governance therefore might need a more catchment specific design following national standards. Flexibility is needed and opportunities have to be identified to fill gaps of implementation. A first set of principles has been established for such an approach based on expert interviews and principles of continuous learning cycles.

GOV1-060

Regional common concern - The normative basis of global water security B.-O. Magsig

University of Dundee, Dundee, United Kingdom

The peaceful management of the world’s freshwater resources is one of the most challenging endeavours the international community is facing, as the worsening global water crisis draws a dark


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picture in which the future may look nothing like today. Following a path of ‘business as usual’ would seriously threaten global stability, and thus endanger the very foundation of international security. Obviously, addressing water insecurity is a highly complex task with multilevel and polycentric forces that all need to be taken into account. Yet, the discussion has focused on narrow-minded approaches for too long.

Earlier work has introduced the novel analytical framework of water security – the ‘4As’ of availability, access, adaptability, and ambit – as a solid concept for looking at the global water crisis from the perspective of international law. It exposes the shortcomings of the current legal regime; above all state-centrism, which disregards regional and global governance issues, and thus, has thwarted true hydrosolidarity among riparians. In order to stabilise global security, international water law has to better address the ‘common’ character of the vital resource. This can only be achieved by rethinking some of the most fundamental tenets of international law (such as state sovereignty); which, in turn, will strengthen its own role and relevance.

A promising way forward seems to be considering water security as a matter of ‘regional common concern,’ drawing from the notion of ‘common concern of mankind’ and the concept of ‘community of interest.’ The looming global water crisis and the increased interdependence of states sharing the freshwater resources could provide the necessary push to justify re-examination of established paradigms – and ultimately help to overcome prevalent political reluctance. Fully apprehending the notion of ‘ambit,’ which does justice to the fact that security can no longer be considered as a zero sum game between states, will allow for a take on water security which acknowledges that ‘ultimate’ (i.e. common and sustainable) security can only be achieved with a truly joint strategy for the benefit of the whole region.

The aim of this paper is to contribute to the forward-looking legal discourse by asking how the notion of ‘regional common concern’ can serve as a normative foundation of water security, in order to help overcoming the state-centrism in orthodox international water law. It will do so by (1) briefly illustrating the ‘4A’ analytical framework of water security; (2) highlighting the main shortcomings of the current legal regime; and (3) proposing a way out of the state-centred quandary by phrasing water security as a matter of ‘regional common concern.’ Only if we develop the fundamental tenets of international law further, can it live up to the challenges of global water insecurity, and ensure the peaceful management of our shared freshwater resources.

GOV1-061

Water governance and payments for hydrological ecosystem services - National experiences in sustainable natural resource management from Central America J. Hack

Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Section of Engineering Hydrology and Water Resources Management, TU Darmstadt

The Payments for Hydrological Ecosystem Services (PHES) concept has become a popular tool within an integrated water resource management in several Central American countries. Costa Rica and Mexico have introduced it as national strategies to efficiently conserve its natural resources. In other neighboring countries the concept prevails as regional or even local measure at basin or catchment scale.

But the differences in the application of the PHES concept are not limited to their spatial extent, stakeholder involvement and institutional organization vary as well from case to case.

This contribution intents to draw a clearer picture on decisive factor of success in including the valuation of hydrological services in natural resource management in Central America.


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IMPACTS OF NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ACTORS ON RIVER BASIN PROCESSES / VIRTUAL WATER FLOWS BETWEEN RIVER BASINS

ACT1/VWB-062

Application of cooperative game theory in the Orange-Senqu river basin J. Reif1, A. Dreuse1, S. Koschker1, S. Schneider1, M. Siehlow1, R. Werner1, C. von Hirschhausen2 1oA, NN, Germany, 2TU Dresden, Dresden, Germany

This study uses a welfare maximization approach to allocate the water of the Orange-Senqu within South Africa to urban, industrial and agricultural consumers. We consider the various Water Management Areas (WMAs). There exists water scarcity and high variability of water availability in this region, therefore instruments of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) have to be established to preserve and allocate water resources in an efficient way. Cooperative game theory concepts are applied, such as core and Shapley value, to investigate incentive structures for different cooperation cases in the basin. It can be shown that a grand coalition increases the collective welfare by 11 %. Considering the core approach, the critical players turn out to be the Upper Orange, Middle/ Lower Vaal, and Lower Orange subregions.

The study advances the analysis of cooperative game theory in Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM), and can thus be also of general interest to the conference.

ACT1/VWB-063

Biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems - Status, trends, pressures, and conservation priorities J. Freyhof, K. Tockner

Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, 12587 Berlin, Germany

Here we present the new EU project BioFresh. BioFresh is the largest < first major> international project to explicitly focus on freshwater biodiversity – a severely threatened and often neglected component of global biodiversity. BioFresh integrates the freshwater biodiversity competencies and expertise of 19 research institutions. One of the main aims of the project is to develop an open access freshwater biodiversity platform to connect global and regional data bases that are currently widely dispersed and for the most part inaccessible. In that respect the project adds tremendous value to the outputs of previous projects through making them available for wider application and for integration with other related outputs. BioFresh is expected to raise public awareness of the fascinating diversity of freshwater ecosystems and the multiple services they provide. www.freshwaterbiodiversity.eu

ACT1/VWB-064

Adaptation to climate change - Strategies and challenges for the Volta basin W. Laube1, C. Sebaly2, E. Youkhana3 1Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung, Bonn, Germany, 2Geographisches Institut der Universität Bonn, Bonn, Germany, 3Interdisziplinäres Lateinamerikazentrum, Bonn, Germany

Adaptation is today’s buzzword and an important strategy to meet the challenges of climate change. Since the effects of climate change will constrain the ability of river basins to reach their sustainable development goals adaptation measures are currently one of the focal points of Official Development Assistance (ODA).

The Adaptation Fund (AF), which was established at the Bali Conference in 2007 under the auspices of the United Nation Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol is one case in point for newly created global financial structures to provide backup facilities for developing countries in order to reduce the effects of climate change from below. The instrument is managed by the CMP, a fund board that is dominated by development countries and that allows national and sub-national actors and organizations (civil society groups, private sector, district administration, etc.) to apply for adaptation funds according to certain criteria that are registered in the recently approved Operational Policies Guidelines. Even though the bottom up approach enables entrance points to global funds for non-governmental actors, the concept bears quite some unanswered questions that need to be addressed before bringing the fund successfully into operation.


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One question is immediately connected to the compatibility with national and regional (local) plans and conceptions for development. In fact, the knowledge about climate change adaptation needs is established and ranges highly on the agenda also of the countries of the Volta basin. For example, the reduction of negative and life-threatening impacts of climate change on the livelihoods of the basins’ population is part of country specific policies and programs. In Ghana, one mayor riparian country of the Volta basin, local, national and international promoted projects addressing water conservation, alternative irrigation practices and infrastructural measures such as the construction of dams are under way. In addition, National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPA) and Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP) partly consider climate change scenarios and the vulnerabilities of the country by drawing poverty-climate links.

Giving the example of the Volta basin and Ghana we discuss which strategies are used by different actors in water management to cope with climate change and the accompanied uncertainties. We further assess whether the adaptation targets of the UNFCCC to make the AF operational (see Operational Policies Guidelines) are compatible with existent development policies, strategies and practices.

ACT1/VWB-065

International virtual water flows and water footprints of nations - A grid-based assessment M.M. Mekonnen, A.Y. Hoekstra

Twente water center, University of Twente, Netherlands

The continuous population growth and economic development have put pressure on the global freshwater resource. Water scarcities in a growing number of countries and regions have stimulated the interest in virtual water flows at international level. Virtual water transfer in the form of international trade in agricultural goods is increasingly recognized as a mechanism to save domestic water resources and achieve national water security. In the past few years a growing number of studies have become available showing that the virtual water flows at international level are substantial. Closely related to the concept of virtual water flow is the water footprint concept introduced by Hoekstra (2003). The concept provides a framework to analyse the link between human consumption and the appropriation of the global freshwater. It shows the volume of water use and pollution level in a geographically and temporally explicit way. Recently, a number of studies have become available applying the concept in the assessment of the water footprint of products, nations, regions or river basins and a business entity.

This study examines the global virtual water flows associated with international agricultural and industrial goods trade and the water footprints of nations for the period 1996-2005. We quantify the green, blue and grey water footprint of crops by using a grid-based dynamic water balance model that takes into account local climate and soil conditions, following the grid-based method as applied earlier for wheat (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2010). The new estimates of virtual water flows and water footprints support the findings in earlier studies (Hoekstra and Chapagain, 2007, 2008), but add a much greater level of detail.

References Hoekstra, A.Y. (2003) (ed.) Virtual water trade: Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on

Virtual Water Trade, Value of Water Research Report Series No.12, UNESCO-IHE, Delft, The Netherlands.

Hoekstra, A.Y. and Chapagain, A.K. (2008) Globalization of water: Sharing the planet’s freshwater resources, Blackwell Publishing, Oxford, UK.

Mekonnen, M.M. and Hoekstra, A.Y. (2010) A global and high-resolution assessment of the green, blue and grey water footprint of wheat, Value of Water Research Report Series No.42, UNESCO-IHE, Delft, The Netherlands.


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ACT1/VWB-066

A model-based estimation of global virtual water flow and sources of water withdrawal N. Hanasaki1, T. Inuzuka2, S. Kanae3, T. Oki4 1National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba-City Ibaraki, Japan, 2Tokio Marine and Nichido Risk Consulting Co. Ltd., Tokyo, Japan, 3Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan, 4Institute of Industrial Science - University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Regional water scarcity can be alleviated by importing commodities, especially foods, because a large volume of water is saved that was required to produce agricultural and livestock products. This concept is termed virtual water import. Quantitative estimation of global virtual water flow is an essential complement to water resources assessments of water availability and use by region. Identifying the source of virtual water further enhances this concept, because each differs in the level of sustainability and opportunity cost. In this study, global virtual water flow and sources of water withdrawal were quantified using a global water resources model H08. H08 is a grid-based global hydrological model, consisting of six sub models: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, water withdrawal, and environmental flow requirement sub models. H08 simulates water flows in rainfed and irrigated cropland in detail, consistent with its global hydrological simulation. This feature enabled us to identify two major sources of virtual water in agricultural production: green water (precipitation) and blue water (irrigation water withdrawal). Blue water was further subdivided into three, streamflow, medium-size reservoir, and nonrenewable and nonlocal blue water (NNBW). NNBW indicates water withdrawal from groundwater exceeding recharge, diverted river water, melt water of glaciers, etc. A global hydrological simulation was conducted for 15 years from 1985 to 1999 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5°. Our results indicated that the global virtual water export (i.e., the volume of water that an exporting nation consumes to produce the commodities that it trades abroad) of five crops (barley, maize, rice, soybean, and wheat) and three livestock products (beef, pork, and chicken) is 545 km3 yr-1). Of the total virtual water exports, 61 km3 yr-1 (11%) are blue water and 26 km3 yr-1 (5%) are NNBW. Virtual water trade has potential to alleviate regional water scarcity in the world. However, virtual water originates from unsustainable sources does not provide us with a fundamental solution. Not only the quantity but also the source of water is essential information in virtual water analysis.

This presentation is based on the following paper: Hanasaki, N., T. Inuzuka, S. Kanae, and T. Oki (2010), An estimation of global virtual water flow and sources of water withdrawal for major crops and livestock products using a global hydrological model, J. Hydrol., 384, 232-244, doi: DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.09.028.

FOURTH PLENARY SESSION

TPS-043

Climatic and hydrological consequences of the large scale land use changes due to biofuel and soy bean production In the Amazon and Parana-La Plata Basins in South America (inv. presentation to topic: Connectivities and linkages within river basins) J.A. Marengo, C.A. Nobre, J.P. Ometto

Earth System Science Center-National Institute for Space Research, São Paulo, Brazil

abstract pending

FPS-067

The Lake Winnipeg Basin - Confronting cultural eutrophication with new narratives for socio-ecological transformation (invited presentation to topic: Virtual water flows between river basins) H.D. Venema

International Institute for Sustainable Development, Winnipeg, Canada

The Lake Winnipeg Basin (LWB) is a large, mid continental transboundary catchment in central North America, which includes large portions of the Canadian provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan


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and Alberta, and the US states of Minnesota and North Dakota. The LWB straddles the sub-humid temperate and semi-arid climate zones. The basin has been heavily modified since the advent of settled agricultural in the latter half of the 19th century, primarily through extensive drainage works and the loss of wetlands.

Lake Winnipeg, the terminus of the basin is the most eutrophic large lake in the world, with large blue-green algae blooms regularly occurring throughout the lake primarily driven by non-point source phosphorus loading. Lake Winnipeg sediment cores indicate that phosphorus began to accumulate at significant rates in the 1960s, coincident with large-scale high-input mechanized agriculture and exacerbated by continual drainage expansion and wetland loss.

The LWB encompasses approximately 90% of the prairie agricultural landmass in Canada and produces 20% of the internationally traded grains and oilseeds. The LWB is an example of an agro-ecosystem jointly stressed from climate change and nutrient over-enrichment described by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment as the most serious global environment issue because of the implications for world food security.

The Lake Winnipeg Bioeconomy Project - led by the International Institute for Sustainable Development based in Winnipeg, Manitoba – is an attempt to re-cast the issue of cultural eutrophication throughout the basin as an economic development opportunity by linking nutrient management to ecological watershed management and new agricultural value chains. The key insight is that phosphorus – the element regarded as the noxious pollutant responsible for fouling Lake Winnipeg – is, like potash, a scarce and strategic resource, which can be captured, recycled and transformed into high-value products and the most efficient mechanism for harvesting non-point phosphorus loads is through watershed-based biomass production.

The Lake Winnipeg Bioeconomy Project is applying ecological watershed management to confront multiple, interacting bio-physical and socio-economic stressors such as climate change, cultural eutrophication, food security, peak phosphorus and rural economic decline within a coherent, integrated framework that could be applied in other transboundary catchments.

FPS-068

Virtual water flows - Methods of water accounting and examples (invited presentation to topic: Virtual water flows between river basins) H. Yang

Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, Switzerland

The Huang-Huai-Hai River basin (the 3H region) is a severely water scarce region in China. This study applies an input-output model to quantify the virtual water flows associated with the international trade of the 3H region, aiming to provide an insight into the impact of international trade of goods and services on its water resources. The results reveal that the 3H region is a net virtual water exporter of 8137.8 million m3/year, accounting for 17.5% of China’s total virtual water export. The net virtual water export of the 3H region accounts for 7.9% of the region’s water resources and 11.2% of its water use. The individual sector analyses indicate that the major net virtual water exporters are those where agriculture provides raw materials in the initial process of the production chain. Typical sectors include textile goods, food and tobacco processing, and wearing, the net virtual water export of which amounts to 5301.3 million m3/year, 65% of 3H region’s total virtual water export. These sectors are not only land and water intensive, but also pollution intensive. The results suggest that the international trade imposes a heavy pressure on 3H region’s water resources both in term of quantity and quality.

SECOND POSTER SESSION

PS2-070

Water resources planning and management regions - New insights and a suggested approach for defining water resources regions considering socio-economic, political and environmental linkages A.C. Coelho, D. Fontane, E. Vlachos

Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States

The lack of uniform and integrated water resources regions that recognize the global dimensions of the water system and support sustainable water management within river basin is a critical issue.


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Overlaying levels of planning and management as a result of uncoordinated water resources regions, as well as narrow river basin scale approaches constrain integrated water resources management. In addition, the process of delineating those regions has often been executed without sufficient scientific support. Despite the fact this is usually a result of political and historical circumstances, it is possible to have better results by using knowledge from prior experiences, modern techniques and improved decision support systems (DSS). In order to harmonize multiple objectives, promote good governance practices, and reflect the linkages between environmental, socio-economic, political, cultural and historical aspects, it becomes imperative to define appropriate territorial limits for water resources planning and management.

Water Resources Planning and Management Regions (WARPLAM) DSS it the suggested approach, designed to support the process of delineating water resources regions based both on recognition of more comprehensive aspects and incorporation of those aspects into the decision making process. Its goals also include promoting a common understanding about the logic behind this process, and reinforcing the connection between the river basin and existent outside forces.

Considering that river basins are the most suitable boundaries to attain IWRM goals, the DSS simulation model offers the option for decision makers to include socio-economic, political, historical, cultural and environmental aspects into the analysis. It is based on the use of geographic information systems (GIS), expert systems (ES) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) combined with cluster analysis. WARPLAM DSS is also a very flexible solution to support the delineation of regions in multiple levels and to be adaptable to regional circumstances. Among its potential users are federal and state governments, international commissions and water councils.

In order to validate the recognition of more comprehensive aspects, a qualitative comparative study, using a simple theoretical framework, is also presented. The analysis focuses on existent water resources regions, and respective institutional framework, in different countries in the European and the American Continents. It intends to further the understanding about the important aspects related to the delineation of water resources regions, including new insights and heuristic knowledge used by experts when defining such regions. The results of the analysis demonstrate that additional aspects, beyond solely river basin limits are being considered. Those results are included in the DSS, and incorporated as the knowledge base of the Expert System.

PS2-071

Development of an evaluation model for water and material cycles in catchments of East Asia Q.X. WANG

National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

The comprehensive tools needed for sustainable management of the water environment and water resources of East Asia. A research project has been developing an integrated system for the observation and evaluation of water and material cycles in catchment ecosystems by coupling satellite monitoring with an integrated catchment model. The model has been developed on the basis of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and it has successfully integrated the effect of dams, land use/cover types as well as management factors in East Asia.

The improved model has been successfully applied to the catchment of the Hanjiang River, one of the largest tributaries of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River and the source river for the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) Project in China. In order to get both input data and validation data of the model, an advanced autonomous water quality monitoring system was established in December 2007 on the Hanjiang River in cooperation with the Changjiang Water Resources Commission (CWRC) of China.

The improved model generate items of both water cycles such as evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharge, and material cycles such as sediment loads, chemical oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and so on in each tributary and main river. The model has been validated by using the observation data in several tributaries in upper, middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River. The result shows that the improved model has a very good behavior in upper researches, where the influence of human activities is relatively smaller than lower reaches. Figure 3 shows the comparison between the simulated value and observation data at (a) Baihe station in the mainstream of the upper reaches, and (b) Xiantao Station in the lower reaches of the Hanjiang River. According to this comparison, we can see that the actual value of river discharge agreed with the simulated value very well with a high regression coefficient (R2=0.8237) in the upper reaches. Although the agricultural water use and dam water allocation have been coupled into the improved model, the variance between observed data and simulated values still remains big with a regression


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coefficient (R2=0.5856) in the lower reaches. To solve the problem, we need to collect the correct data of water allocation by dams.

The validated model has been put into use for evaluation of the impact of human activities, such as SNWD as well as the policy of Reforestation of the Cultivated Land (RFCL) on the ecosystem services in the catchment ecosystem. The model simulation shows that SNWD might make a large effect on not only river discharge but also water quality of the Hanjiang River, especially in dry seasons. However, RFCL might make relatively a small effect on river discharge, but obviously improve the water quality in the Hanjiang River.

PS2-072

River-floodplain exchange and nutrient and carbon cycling in the dam-impacted Kafue River (Zambia) DB. Senn1, R. Zurbruegg1, M. Kunz2, J. Wamulume3, A. Wüest2, M. Lehmann4, I. Nyambe3, B. Wehrli1 1Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH-Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, 2Surface Waters Research and Management, Eawag, Zürich, Switzerland, 3Integrated Water Resources Management Center, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia, 4Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland

The lower Kafue River (Zambia; Qavg ~ 300 m3/s) is influenced by two large dams that regulate flow and flooding, and in so doing have impacted the river’s large (7000 km2) and high-biodiversity floodplain, the Kafue Flats. This presentation will explore hydrologic exchange between the Kafue River and the floodplain, and carbon and nutrient cycling in the Kafue River and the upstream Itezhi-Tezhi (IT) reservoir. Sediment cores collected throughout IT reservoir indicate that it efficiently traps most of the phosphorous and organic-N that previously would have fertilized the downstream floodplain. A 400 km stretch of the river downstream of IT was intensively studied, with flow rate measurements (ADCP) and water samples collected for a variety of parameters at the onset of flood recession in May 2008, 2009, and 2010. Flow measurements, along with specific conductivity and d18O-H20 in the river, indicate that there is strong exchange with the floodplain, and further downstream river water exhibited an excreesingly dominant floodplain chemical signature. Low inorganic nitrogen levels (below 1 micromolar) and relatively high DON and total nitrogen (~10 and ~40 micromolar, respectively) were measured along the entire river. Although several lines of evidence suggest low nitrogen availability in the floodplain, our estimates indicate that the floodplain is a net source of fixed nitrogen. N isotopes in DON were consistent with an important N fixation source. During all three years, a sharp decline in dissolved oxygen levels (from 5 mg/l to 1 mg/l) occurred along a 30 km pristine river stretch with no distinct river inflows, and low dissolved oxygen (<2 mg/l) persisted for another 150 km downstream. Mass balance estimates and other chemical evidence suggest that the oxygen deficit is primarily caused by low-oxygen water entering from the floodplain. Proposed changes in operating rules in the upstream IT reservoir give added importance to the low inorganic N (and phosphate) and low dissolved oxygen levels observed downstream. Currently, IT acts only as a water storage reservoir, and water is released via surface spillways. However, within the next several years, turbines will be installed at IT and hypolimnetic water will be released through the turbines. Our measurements in the IT water column show that the hypolimnion is anoxic for more than half of the year and contains up to 10 times higher concentrations of phosphate and ammonium than the surface waters. Results from a biogeochemical-physical model of the reservoir will also be presented that describe predicted changes in the water quality of releases from IT reservoir under various operating scenarios.

PS2-073

Transboundary waters and its security in the Middle East - As a case study the Euphrates and Tigris rivers Acma. Bulent

Anadolu University, Eskisehir, Turkey

The following study defends the argument that riparian states on the Euphrates and Tigris have widened their respective conventional security concerns to include water, creating a hydropolitical security complex in the region. It argues that political, national and international security, particularly in the case of Turkey, has been the basic determinant for water policy and development. I also assert that water security for downstream riparians, Syria and Iraq, is primarily centred on irrigation, food security and established rights, all inherently inefficient methods of water use. Due to the politicising of water resources, states have pursued unilateral and unsustainable development objectives, rejected


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international water law, and failed to reach a tripartite agreement to share water in the basin. In the first section, gives a brief geological and hydrographic background of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers, illuminating their diverse character and apportioning figures for discharge, drainage area and river length between Turkey, Syria and Iraq.

In the second section, analyses water security in Turkey with focus given to Turkey’s hydroimperative, in particular major water development planned on the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers. Analysis shows that Turkey linked security in Anatolia and water. Syrian and Iraqi water security are discussed in the third section. Agricultural policies from both countries are explored and linked to their respective and wasteful withdrawal of water from both the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. Conflict over water depletions after the construction of dams in Syria and in Turkey are analysed in detail at the end of the study.

Finally, in the last section argues that water resource scarcity, increasing interdependence of river resources, expanding security policies and unethical river usage provides a recipe for protracted conflict. It goes on to examine why efforts to cooperate in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin failed and looks into the validity of current international law as a water management tool. The thesis concludes by suggesting an ethical framework for environmental management of water in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin.

PS2-074

Development of future climate projections at high temporal and spatial resolutions C. Tisseuil1, M. Vrac2, T. Oberdorff1 1UMR BOREA 7208 "Biologie des Organismes et Ecosystemes Aquatiques", Paris, France, 2Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France

Understanding the impact of climate change on global water resources is partly determined by the consistency of climate change projections that drive global hydrological models. To date, general circulation models (GCM) outputs from the 4th IPCC report are the most readable data we have to project future climate under several socio-economics scenarios. However, GCM projections are known to be too coarse in spatial resolution (~ 2.5° x 2.5°) and too seasonally biased to be directly used as input into global hydrological models. Downscaling techniques are thus a necessary step to derive seasonally bias-corrected GCM projections at a high spatial resolution, as required by most global hydrological models.

Although several international projects provide high-resolution gridded downscaled projections at the global scale (e.g., Worldclim, Climate Research Unit), these projections may have several limits preventing their use for global hydrological models. Firth, projections are generally provided on a monthly basis, while providing projections on a daily basis should improve the understanding of hydro-climatic extremes events. Second, future projections are essentially given for precipitation and temperature fields while radiation-related fields – which may be used to calculate future evapotranspiration (ETP) - are usually omitted. Third, the downscaling approach is commonly based on the 'Change factor' or Delta methods, which does not explicitly take into account the intrinsic variability of GCM projections in the future (e.g. inter- and intra-annual variability).

This study aims at developing an unprecedented downscaling framework to provide high-resolution gridded future climate projections (0.313° x 0.313°) at the daily scale for the entire globe. Based on the Cumulative Distribution Function transformation approach (CDFt; Michelangeli et al. 2009), low resolution GCM projections (~ 2.5° x 2.5°) are daily downscaled at 0.313° of resolution and seasonally bias-corrected based on the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis from 1970 to 2000 (CFSR). Daily projections from 2050 to 2100 are made for an ensemble of 12 GCM and three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A1, A1B, B2), to assess uncertainty in future projections, successively for precipitation, minimum, maximum and mean temperature as well as ETP. The finality of this study is to provide freely-available projections to improve the understanding of future climate change impacts on water resources as well as on biodiversity.


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PS2-075

The ecological evaluation of the Debed river and its watershed basin in Armenia A. Danielyan1, S. Minasyan2 1Yerevan State University, Yerevan, Armenia, 2Environmental Impact Monitoring Center, Yerevan, Armenia

There are necessities to study and foresee growing anthropogenic pressure to natural ecosystems, related to negative influences coursed by pollution of natural systems.

Water resources play important role in the economic development of Armenia. Because of the economic crisis and inoperability of industrial enterprises were seem improvement of surface water quality. However, parallel with economic recovery surface water quality will gradually be reversed as a result of pollutions from industrial, municipal and agricultural sources. Pollution of surface waters, not complete management of water resources are really problems in the field of water resources management in Armenia.

The Debed river watershed basin is one of the important economical centers of Armenia, as is characterized with rich natural recourses, and stands out with developed industry and agriculture. All of these cause serious ecological and environmental problems, especially when the waste management mainly absents in the area of watershed basin.

The area of Debed river watershed basin also has not been protected from the difficulties of transitional economy in Armenia. In area of the watershed basin the state policy of securing employment and somewhat reducing poverty prevails in a situation of broad poverty, in which environmental issues are often neglected.

The objectives of researches are to study ecological situation of the Debed river and its main tributaries in present conditions, to give ecological evaluation of the Debed river and its watershed basin, which is basic information needed, to focus resource protection and remediation activities later in the watershed management planning process.

The researches have been passed from 2004-2008. In basis of the research works is putted the Driving Forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Responses (DPSIR) framework, by which is possible to understand confluences between deferent problems of water management. In order to explore the complex interrelations among factors and processes in the watershed basin, during the researches in the each water sample have been studied about 33 hydrophysical, hydrochemical and hydrobiological parameters.

As for researches evaluation the ecosystems of the Debed river watershed basin cannot conquer the level of present anthropogenic pressure sufficiently, causing degradation of ecosystems and disbalance of environment, health and socio-economical problems.

Also, there is direct influence of the present socio-economic condition of this area on the ecological situation of Debed river watershed basin.The evaluation by DPSIR framework facts again those natural and socio-economical systems are intercommunicated and changes in one field influence also to the other fields.

PS2-076

Trend changes detection of precipitation and temperature - A case study in Isfahan Province A. Rafiaei1, M.R. Yazdani2, J. Khoshhal Dastjerdi3 1MSc of Climatology, Agriculture and Natural Resources Center, Isfahan, Iran, 2PhD student of Climatology, Department of Climatology, University of Isfahan, Iran, 3Supervisor of Climatology, Department of Climatology, University of Isfahan, Iran

One of the most important challenges in water science is water supply in the arid land. This problem has become serious due to occurrences of drought. Regard to possibility of increasing air temperature in the future, it can has negative effects on this area. We need to recognize vulnerable area to move toward adaptation strategies. Isfahan province is located in central part of Iran and so is sensitive to drought occurrence. Water supply and river flow are depending to weather inputs such as rainfall and temperature. In this study, changes and trends in time series of rainfall and temperature have studied in some climatology stations in the studied region. Man-Kendall test were used to trend detection and the effect of these on the water resources have been evaluated. Results indicated that there were some fluctuations in rainfall series that has any significant trend. But air temperature showed an upward trend and it means more stress on the water bodies and increasing difficultness of water management in the study area.


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Keywords: Trend detecting, Mann-Kendall test, water management, Isfahan Province


CCI3-077

Hydrologic risk transfer models as adapting strategies to water quality vulnerability scenarios of climate change M. Mendiondo1, J.A. Marengo2, G. Laurentis1, J. Valdes3, H. Gupta3 1University of Sao Paulo, Sao Carlos, Brazil, 2Brazilian Space Agency, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil, 3University of Arizona, Tucson, USA

Adapting measures to hydrologic risks are particularly relevant at water quality of world catchments threatened by climate extremes, especially those rivers being highly impacted by progressive transformation. To further transfer global water quality risks, new insurance models, as Hydrological Risk Transfer Models (HRTM), couple regional/global hydrologic models with economic layouts regarding a scenario approach. Novel HRTMs are derived and compared on long-term scenarios and modeling runs of water quality of possible climate and land use changes in South and North America river basins. The objective of work is twofold: (1) linking Global Circulation Model outputs to regional HRTMs at representative watersheds; (2) exploring several combinations of hypothesis testing of water quality turning points on climate change and land-use scenarios. Those objectives outline water insurance models in order to propose new indexes of water vulnerability and resilience, adaptation thresholds of more vulnerable society’s sectors and mitigation policies of the whole economical system. The purpose is to approach case studies at representative biomes of Subtropical and Semi-Arid areas in South and North America's river basins, thereby underpinning water quality yardsticks of how to replicate intensive HRTM runs for GWSP approach. Future global water scenarios, with uncertainty intervals between period of years 2000-2050 and 2050-2100, will be the inputs to HRTMs, acting as a dynamic ‘water quality fund tank’ of the insurance device. New climate change scenarios runs through Brazilian CPTEC-ETA model, globally-constrained by GCMs, from baseline scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for the period 1960 – 2100, also include indexes of extreme precipitation, temperature and water scarcity indexes here used. To address resilience and vulnerability indexes, the insurance model emulate stochastically-based scenarios based upon ‘fund tank’ solvency as well as time-averaged efficiency throughout long-term scenarios of land-use. Then climate change and land-use scenarios could be tested as end-points or mixed situations which generate a wide range of possibilities. The methodology is assessed at representative biomes with transboundary constraints. Consequently, the project outline replication steps for: (a) the adaptation of four scenarios of Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, (b) a stochastic bootstrapping of M number of scenarios, (c) 3 to 4 climate change scenarios, (d) 7-10 fuzzy-level risk coverage of insurance for water scarcity, (e) a 100-year timeframe horizon per scenario run, encompassing a great amount of combinations of flexible, adaptive insurance schemes exploring HRTMs at a lumped scale of the watershed.

CCI3-078

Diverse impacts of climate change on streamflow in Alberta, Canada S.W. Kienzle, M.J. Byrne

Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Lethbridge, Canada

Impacts of climate change on water availability changes over a very short distance within central and southern Alberta, Canada. While severe temperature increases are predicted for the whole of Alberta, southern Alberta is expected to experience either a slight increase or slight decrease in precipitation, and central and northern Alberta will likely get a small to large increase in precipitation. The associated impacts on the rain to snow ratio, annual water yield, timing of snow melt, glacier contributions, the seasonal flow regime, and low flows of two contrasting watersheds are investigated: the Beaver River watershed in southern Alberta, a small hybrid watershed, and the Cline River watershed, an alpine, partly glaciated watershed.

Streamflow dynamics of both watersheds were simulated using the ACRU agro-hydrological modelling system, and results were successfully verified against the 1961-1990 baseline period. Five climate change scenarios for the periods 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099 were selected from available Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) scenarios, representing climate conditions that


as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37 67

are for the Beaver Creek warmer-wetter, warmer-drier, hotter- wetter and hotter-drier, and for the Cline River watershed warmer-wetter, warmer-wettest, hotter-wetter, and hotter-wettest.

Results indicated that in the Beaver River watershed more precipitation will fall as rain, and, while potential evapotranspiration will increase, actual evapotranspiration will remain fairly constant due to limitations in soil water availability. Annual water yield is predicted to slightly increase for most scenarios, but summer and fall streamflows will get lower due to an earlier exhaustion of the groundwater store. This will result in severe stress in water availability in a region where many rivers are already over-allocated.

In the Cline River watershed, the volume of glacier melt is decreasing with time, while the snow melt freshet occurs earlier, spring flows are higher, and annual water yields are higher. Due to increased groundwater recharge, induced by increased future precipitation, and a higher future proportion of precipitation falling as rain, winter low flows are predicted to be higher in the future.

In addition, maps produced by the authors of observed streamflow trends for Alberta are discussed in order to put the findings into a regional perspective.

Funding was provided by the Alberta Ingenuity Centre for Water Research (AICWR), the Alberta Water Resources Institute (AWRI), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), and EPCOR Water Services Inc..

CCI3-079

Hydrologic impacts of climate change in agricultural watersheds K. P. Sudheer1, I. Chaubey2, K. A. Cherkauer2, C. Maringanti2, M. Raneef3, T. Thomas1, B. Engel2 1Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, India, 2Purdue University, West Lafayette, USA, 3Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India

Most of the studies related to the impacts of climate change on hydrology have focused on large scale assessment with very limited information available to quantify impacts at a watershed scale. While it is generally acknowledged that the climate change impacts will be large in spatial extent, the decisions made to minimize their impacts will be local, e.g. watershed scale. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on drought and water use characteristics with emphasis on reservoir water availability, and stream flow at watershed scale. We have utilized a watershed scale model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT), and downscaled GCM precipitation and temperature forecasts for the next one hundred years to simulate the hydrologic response of an agricultural watershed in the Midwest USA. We have compared the hydrologic response under climate change and current conditions to quantify specific impacts. The model results indicate that there is a large uncertainty in the hydrologic response at the watershed scale both in low and high flow regimes. These uncertainties have been evaluated by comparing the model simulations that used both measured and simulated climate data from 1950 to 2000. Confidence interval in the projected drought and water use characteristics for 2001-2100 incorporates uncertainty information deduced from the historically measured data. Overall, the results of the study indicate that storage capacity for reservoirs needs to be enhanced to mitigate the possible increased frequency of drought events in future to meet land use demand for water.

CCI3-080

Connecting demand and resource driven water balance modelling with regional climate and land-use models in the Jordan river basin C. Bonzi1, H. Hoff2, K. Tielbörger3 1University of Tübingen, Tübinen, Germany, 2Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, 3University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany

The Middle East is one of the most water-stressed regions in the world. Decreasing water availability due to climate change and rapidly increasing water demand will exacerbate the water gap and highlights the urgent need for sustainable water management. The GLOWA Jordan River project aims at developing strategies for sustainable water and land management in the Jordan River region under global change. The project integrates a range of different disciplines and supports an active transboundary dialogue between science and stakeholders. It makes use of the results of more than 50 scientific working groups in Jordan, Palestine, Israel and Europe which have been doing research on climate change, the hydrological system, natural and semi-natural ecosystems and agriculture at basin and regional scales.

Central to realizing integration in the GLOWA JR project is the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) tool which has been developed and applied in cooperation with regional stakeholders.


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WEAP is a water resource management tool, based on water balance accounting principles. It allows to test and compare alternative sets of scenario conditions of both supply, demand and quality, in order to develop adaptive management strategies.

In GLOWA JR the impacts of climate change on the hydrological system of the upper and lower Jordan River, as well as on the different natural, semi-natural and agricultural ecosystems of the region are modelled, based on downscaled climate and land use scenarios. A regional land-use model (LandShift) simulates future land-use changes, and regional climate models (RegCM, MM5) simulates changes in water availability, as input for eco-hydraulic modeling all of which are integrated in WEAP at catchment scale. Participatory socio-economic scenarios were developed via the story-and-simulation (SAS) approach.

The WEAP tool is used to assess the potential of adaptation strategies to mitigate water scarcity, such as wastewater reuse, rainwater harvesting, managed aquifer recharge and the use of other non conventional or new water sources – under different regional climate, land use and socio-economic scenarios.

CCI3-081

Modeling impact of climate change on hydrology of the Brahmani river basin, India A. K. Sikka1, A. Islam2 1National Rainfed Area Authority, New Delhi, India, 2ICAR Research Complex for Eastern Region, Patna, India

Climate change is expected to influence hydrology of the river basins. Such hydrological changes will have implications on water availability, floods and droughts which have ramifications on agriculture and food security. There are preliminary reports that the recent trend of decline in yields of rice and wheat in Indo-Gangetic Plains could have been partly due to weather changes (Aggarwal et al., 2004). Hydrologic modeling of different river basins of India using SWAT in combination with the HadRM2 regional climate model output under present (1981-2000) and future (2041-2060) scenarios, indicated increase in severity of drought and intensity of floods in the different parts of the country (MOEF, GOI, 2004). This paper presents a case study dealing with response of climate change on hydrology and water resources availability in the Brahmani river basin, located in eastern India, under hypothetical as well as HadCM3 and regional climate model PRECIS derived climate change scenarios.

Sensitivity analysis of streamflow to different hypothetical climate change scenarios indicated 76% increase in annual streamflow with 30% increase in rainfall and no change in temperature, and a maximum decrease of 33% in annual streamflow with 4°C increase in temperature and 10% decrease in rainfall. Simulation results using HadCM3 derived climate change scenarios indicated increase in annual as well as seasonal streamflow under both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. Under A2a emission scenario 15, 9 and 26% increase in annual streamflow was estimated during 2020, 2050, and 2080 respectively. Under B2a emission scenario, 23 and 28% increase in annual streamflow is estimated during 2050 and 2080, respectively. Simulation with PRECIS RCM scenario indicated 53% increase of in annual streamflow during 2080 (2071-2100) under. Analysis of monthly results showed maximum increase in streamflow in May during all the periods (2020, 2050, and 2080) under A2a emission scenario. Under A2a emission scenario, decrease in monthly streamflow is estimated during October and December in 2020, June in 2050, and June and February in 2080. In case of B2a emission scenario, decrease in monthly streamflow is observed during June and February in 2020, February in 2050, and October to December in 2080. This has implications for winter crops besides meeting the peak water demands during summer season. This suggests need for adaptation strategies through land, water, crop and agronomic management interventions.

References: Aggarwal, P. K., Joshi, P. K., Ingram, J. S. I., and Gupta, R. K. (2004). Adapting food systems of

the Indo-Gangetic plains to global environmental change – key information needs to improve policy formulation. Environmental Science & Policy 7 (2004): 487-498.

MOEF, GOI (2004). India’s Intial national Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change. Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India.


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CCI3-082

Impacts of climate change on discharge in a highly glacierized catchment in the Alps B. Uhlmann1, F. Jordan2, M. Beniston1 1University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland, 2E-dric.ch, Epalinges, Switzerland

In the framework of global warming, the hydrological regimes in mountainous areas are going to be modified, and will therefore transfigure the hydroenergy supply mechanisms. The main objective here is to analyse the impacts of such changes on runoff in a small catchment in the Swiss Alps. Routing System 3 (RS3.0) is the model used to simulate discharges. It is based on object-oriented programming, allowing hydrological and hydraulic modelling according to a semi-distributed conceptual scheme. It combines a snowmelt sub-model, a glacier sub-model, an infiltration sub-model and a runoff sub-model. As input, it runs with hourly temperatures and precipitation, as well as with geomorphologic data of the catchment area. RS3.0 has been initially used to evaluate the current water resources available in the system and has shown high skill in simulating discharges.

In the second place to simulate a warmer climate at the end of the century, a pseudo-random meteorological data generator is used to reproduce a 130-year sequence of precipitation and temperatures. For the weather patterns to be coherent both series have been associated and the stations linked together. These time series are then disturbed according to the amplitude of climate change simulated by the HIRHAM RCM by the end of the century. Preliminary results show a shift in seasonal patterns of flows and a general decrease of discharge at the end of the period in the investigated area.

CCI3-083

Global litter decomposition patterns in streams - Implications for climate change L. Boyero1, M.O. Gessner2, G.S.D. Consortium3 1Wetland Ecology Department, Doñana Biological Station - CSIC, Sevilla, Spain, 2Dept. Aquatic Ecology, Eawag / ETH, Dubendorf, Switzerland, 3School Marine & Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia

Latitudinal gradients can gauge large-scale ecological changes caused by climate warming. Strong variation in biodiversity across latitudes is a well established phenomenon. But whether similar patterns hold for ecosystem processes such as organic matter decomposition is largely unknown, especially in aquatic ecosystems. In a worldwide analysis of streams, where the overriding influence of moisture is ruled out, we found that temperature-normalized microbial decomposition of leaf litter is remarkably invariant between 48°S and 48°N, whereas detritivore-mediated decomposition increases linearly with latitude. Non-normalized decomposition rates show opposite patterns. These contrasting models imply that warming effects on microbial decomposition will be strongly counteracted by reduced invertebrate feeding, if climate change involves poleward retraction of detritivores. Given the recently recognized significance of streams in the global carbon budget, this finding is likely to have wide-ranging consequences for global biogeochemistry in addition to stream ecosystem dynamics.

INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL AND NATIONAL GOVERNANCE ON WATER RESOURCES IN RIVER BASINS

GOV2-084

The state of the global water system - A pilot study on indicators for operational monitoring of water resources C. Vörösmarty, B. Fekete, T. Lakankar

City College of New York, New York, United States

With global climate change continuing to dominate international dialogue on the environment, threats to the global water system have yet to attain a similar level of scientific, public, and policy concern. The Global Scale Initiative of the GWSP was designed to promote a fully global-scale perspective within the Project – one of its key founding principles. It is guided, as all GWSP activities, by (i) continental-to-global perspectives, (ii) interdisciplinarity, and (iii) making good use of high quality


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scientific and technical resources. The effort is fundamentally science-driven but highly policy-informing, and this objective has been forwarded through development of a flagship product, The State-of-the-Global Water System. As a first application, work has been executed on behalf of the 24-agency United Nations World Water Development Programme as the WWAP Pilot Study on Indicators, reflecting a consultative process leading to a first version of an integrated global data compendium and toolset produced as a set of electronic maps-- representing to the highest degree possible a definitive, comprehensive, and up-to-date picture of the state of the hydrologic systems and affiliated world water resources, their accessibility and use by society. This paper will summarize key elements of the system, highlighting its emerging operational capabilities and potential use in identifying and addressing patterns of water system stress.

GOV2-085

Global Influences on RBO sustainability - The Mekong as case study B. Affeltranger

UNU-EHS, Bonn, Germany

A river basin is not only a geographical cradle where States and communities use natural resources as basis for development. A basin is also a playground for (geo)political influences coming from inside and outside watershed boundaries. The rise, development, successes or shorcomings of river basin organisations (RBOs) as institutional systems do reflect this global realm of influences.

Needless to say that these influences do not necessarily converge towards the same environmental, social or economic development goals. Diversity is not, in itself, a problem. However, diverging goals may induce conflicting values or approaches to the possible « futures » of the basin. The RBO emerges as an arena for competing priorities over water resources. Availability of an apropriate governance is a key condition for this arena not to turn into a battlefield.

With a relatively long history of institutionalised river basin management, the Mekong offers a precious case study for understanding how global influences mix with riparian stakeholders, shaping a complex web of options for basin development. While the Mekong River Commission (MRC) has always witnessed ambitious development goals for the basin, the very sustainability of this organisation may be jeopardized by untamed global influences.

GOV2-086

The influence of international water governance on water management in Zambia. J.M. Kampata

Department of Water Affairs, Lusaka, Zambia

Zambia’s water policy and institutional framework has been influenced over the years by the resolutions and adaptation of numerous international conferences and instruments. The turning point was in 1991 when the country initiated water sector reforms that were largely influenced the Dublin principles and Agenda 21. A National Water Policy was adopted by government in 1994 that took on board the Dublin principles. The paper will analyze how this changed water resources management in Zambia.

Zambia and the rest of the SADC countries was also influenced by the 1997 United Nations Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses In response to this Zambia has participated in the development of a protocols and institutional framework to manage its international waters. The paper will outline the river basin institutional and legal frameworks that have been developed for the Lake Tanganyika River basin and the Zambezi River Basin.

Finally the paper will address the influence of the 2002 Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development which among others called for countries to develop Integrated Water Resources Management and Water Efficiency (IWRM/WE) plans of which Zambia produced one in 2008 and is currently implementing it within the framework of the national development plan.

NWASCO. 2004. Water Sector Reforms in Zambia Ministry of Energy and Water Development, 1994 (revised 2010). National Water Policy Republic of Zambia.2008. Integrated Water Resources Management/Water Efficiency

Implementation Plan.


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GOV2-087

Global Water Governance and the UN System C. Pahl-Wostl1, J. Gupta2, T. Toonen3 1UNESCO-IHE, Delft, Netherlands, 2Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 3TU Delft, Delft, Netherlands

The global dimension has gained increasing importance in water governance. Water problems have traditionally been considered to be local or regional problems. However, there are strong arguments to take the global dimension into account. Given alarming developments of the global water system one may question if current fora and processes of global water governance provide the necessary institutional framework to meet present and future challenges. In their analysis of the current state of global water governance Pahl-Wostl et al (2008) noted the diffuse and fragmented character of today’s Global Water Governance with heterogeneous players without indications of emerging global leadership. The lack of strong motivation within UN agencies and states to push water management has been compensated by the rise of pluralistic bodies trying to deal with these issues. UN Water, the coordination platform for water related issues in the UN system, is thus far comprised of functional and nongovernmental agents of various water-related ‘partners’, not organisations representing governmental units, or the water governance system in and of itself.

Despite the scientific and political importance of the theme, work on global water governance is yet scarce. Furthermore there is little exchange between governance scholars working at the global level with those working at the basin and community levels. To improve this situation the GWSP has started to establish a community of scholars working on global and basin water governance issues by organizing a suite of activities related to the topic of global water governance. The paper will present major results from a workshop on “Global Water Governance and the UN System” that will take place in October 2010. In particular the following questions will be addressed:

• What are major the present and emerging challenges for global water governance? • Is the current global water governance system capable of dealing with present and emerging

challenges? • Does UN Water as a body that coordinates UN water activities offer a sufficiently suitable

forum for engaging in, discussing and taking decisions on water governance to meet the present and emerging governance challenges?

• What could and should be the role of the UN system in global water governance taking into account experiences regarding UN activities in global water governance and experiences regarding the role of the UN system in other areas of global environmental governance?

GOV2-088

Recent water use changes in the Yellow River basin and their driving forces H. Yang1, Z.X. Xu2, S.K. Wei1 1Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology, Ueberlandstrasse 133, 8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland, 2Center for Water Resource, Beijing Normal University, China

The Yellow River is the second largest river in China. During the last three decades, water scarcity has become increasingly serious in the basin. This study investigates: 1) effects of changes in climate, land cover/use, demography, institutions and consumption patterns on the characteristics of the Yellow River; 2) impacts of these changes on food production in the basin and virtual water trade across the basin boundary. It is found that the increasing water scarcity has entailed efforts to improve irrigation efficiency and reallocate water from agriculture to other sectors. However, so far, there has not been a significant shift of land use and food production to less water intensive crops in the basin, particularly in the upstream areas. Instead, the basin’s role as an exporter of virtual water in the form of cereal crops has increased. One option to halt the trend of aggregating water scarcity and environment degradation in the basin is to introduce a compensation mechanism for reallocating water from upstream to downstream provinces and from agriculture to ecosystem services.


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IMPACTS OF NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ACTORS ON RIVER BASIN PROCESSES

ACT2-089

Impacts of the governmental water policy on land use and streamflow in the arid Heihe River Watershed, Northwest China C. He1, C. DeMarchi2 1Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, Michigan, U.S.A., 2Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio 44106, U. S.A.

Increasing withdrawals of water for large agricultural irrigation, growing industrial development, and rapid urbanization have depleted much of the river flows downstream in the arid Heihe River Watershed, Northwest China, causing shrinking oasis, accelerating desertification, and intensifying water tensions among different jurisdictions and ethnic groups. In 1997, The State Council of China issued executive order to mandate the release of the required amounts of water downstream for rehabilitating the endangered ecosystem in the lower reach of the Heihe Watershed. This paper adapts the Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model to the Heihe Watershed for understanding the distribution of glacial/snow melt, groundwater, surface runoff, and evapotranspiration in the upper and middle reaches of the watershed, and for assessing the impacts of water allocation policy by the State Council of China on the land use pattern and streamflow of the Heihe Watershed. The simulated daily river flows of the 1990-2008 results show that Qilian mountain in the upper reach area produces most runoff in the Heihe watershed, and implementation of the water allocation mandate of the State Council of China has led to significant changes in the crop pattern, i.e. reduction of rice paddy area and expansion of wheat and corn areas in the middle reach, and increased streamflow to the lower reach.

ACT2-090

Access points to decision makers for transnational NGO-networks - The case of Ilisu dam in Turkey A. Atzl

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology - Institute of Regional Science, Karlsruhe, Germany

Transnational NGO-networks have gained increasing influence in decision making on water infrastructure during the last decades. This contribution analyzes, whether, and by applying which means, the transnational campaign network on Ilisu dam in Southeast Turkey has been influential in the application of standards and the development of a large dam project.

Point of departure is the World Commission on Dams that ended in 2000 with a set of recommendations for large dam projects, but without an implementation mechanism. The Ilisu campaign network has been active in promoting these recommendations. To put pressure on decision makers, the campaign targeted different access points on the international level, in Western Europe, and in Turkey.

The most important access points have been three European Export Credit Agencies (ECAs). They agreed with Turkey on Terms of Reference on environment, resettlement, and cultural heritage. Norms were distributed by this pathway to the project level. In this actor-constellation, the Ilisu-network has been a norm catalyst, accelerating the implementation of norms by ECAs, who carry them from policy to the project level. ECAs are therefore norm carriers.

However, in July 2009 the European ECAs withdrew their support due to public pressure and difficulties with the implementation of the Terms of Reference in the project. As a consequence, this access point to decision makers for the campaign ended. While Turkey is continuing the project since early 2010 with new partners, the campaign is seeking for new access points to decision makers in Turkey.

The contribution analyzes the different access points to decision makers on the international and national levels. It describes the strategies to utilize these access points and to develop the campaign's influence after the disappearance of access points in Europe.

The contribution is based on the results of an empirical diploma thesis from Mainz University, Germany, which has been written in cooperation with and supported by the German Development Institute Bonn, Germany (DIE-GDI).


as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37 73

ACT2-091

The impact of global actors and paradigms on river basin processes - A Mongolian case study I. Dombrowsky, I. Horlemann

Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany

The management of water resources at local and river basin scale is increasingly influenced by global actors and paradigms. At a global scale since the early 1990s the concept of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) has been advocated by influential organizations as a concept for a sustainable resource use. In addition, the Johannesburg Summit called for the establishment of Integrated River Basin Management Plans until the year 2005. In consequence processes of River Basin Management (RBM) have been initiated in an increasing number of river basins worldwide.

In order to get a better understanding of the impact of global actors and paradigms on local water management processes, the paper presents a case study on the institutionalization of RBM in the Khovd basin in Mongolia. In Mongolia, since the year 2005 a RBM approach is mandated by the Mongolian water law. However, many questions pertaining to the adequate institutional design of RBM remain open. In general, the institutionalization can be regarded as highly political process where different actor interests compete. It can be observed that to date it is mainly initiated by external actors, such as the Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF) and different donor countries. At the same time, it opens new spheres to a range of actors trying to extent their own political power while depoliticizing others. In the case of the Khovd basin, a River Basin Council with relatively diverse stakeholder representation from different administrative levels was established in 2009 in order to come up with a river basin management plan to be submitted to the three provincial governments sharing the river. In order to analyze the role and impact of different actors and paradigms on the institutionalization of RBM in the Khovd interviews were conducted with a wide range of with various actors involved. The paper finds that the Khovd process was indeed mainly driven by external actors. However, despite this external involvement local stakeholders have assumed a considerable level of ownership with respect to Khovd RBM process. At the same time, institutional mismatches have led to open questions pertaining to capacity, quorum, legal form, and financing of the Khovd River Basin Council and it is not clear yet whether the Council will be able to deliver a feasible and acceptable river basin management plan. This also raises more fundamental questions as to the opportunities and limits of the local implementation of the global IWRM paradigm.

ACT2-092

Asymmetry and accountability deficits in water governance as inhibitors of effective water resource management M. Muller

Graduate School of Public and Development Management, Witwatersrand University, Johannesburg South AFrica

Water resources are amongst the most difficult of the natural resources in which to establish management regimes that are effective in meeting the needs of human communities while sustaining the natural environment at an acceptable level.

Water users usually have a local, basin or, occasionally inter-basin perspective on the resource and focus their engagement at this level. National government intervention in water-stressed countries to address over-arching dimensions of water resource management and manage transboundary issues is often limited. While some countries have strong sectoral institutions, in many others, water management and use is regulated by a proliferation of local and regional organisations.

On the other hand, environmental interest groups with specific, limited goals are often organised on a global level with a mandate and resources to intervene at all levels in pursuit of specific interests. As a result, it is suggested that they play a disproportionate role in policy debates, particularly in poor countries through their impact on the funding priorities of donors and DFIs.

It is suggested that this has seriously skewed global water policy and practice in two ways. Firstly, it has given primacy to the protection of the aquatic environment at the expense of social needs and economic imperatives. Secondly, it has distorted the institutional arrangements to reflect its partial objectives as demonstrated by donor emphasis on river basin management institutions.

One consequence of this asymmetry is that water resource policy initiatives, particularly in poorer developing countries have often been disconnected from the immediate development needs of their societies. Another outcome has paradoxically been to weaken environmental performance since


74 as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37

regulations introduced through unaccountable organisations which do not reflect local priorities and resources cannot effectively be imposed and are often ignored.

It is suggested that, to the extent that water resource matters are regulated at a global level, institutional approaches are needed that actively seek to balance the interests of different social, economic and environmental stakeholders and in particular to ensure that there is effective accountability to the societies concerned.

ACT2-093

Enhancing adaptive capacity through well-managed aquaculture integrated with small-scale irrigation in the Chinyanja Triangle in Africa J. Krywkow, C. Pahl-Wostl

USF, University of Osnabrück, Germany

The impacts of climate change pose challenges to human activities in river basins worldwide. This paper argues that increasing the adaptive capacity of local communities may be more effective than investments in large-scale infrastructure.

Agricultural production is the main source of income for the majority of the population in Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique. Livelihoods of local smallholders depend mainly upon harvests after the rainy season. However, irregular rainfall pattern may result in shortages of staple foods. In order to overcome this vulnerability, governmental and non-governmental organisations have introduced small-scale irrigation combined with aquaculture. Local implementation of integrated aquaculture in small-scale agriculture (IAA) has resulted in a significant increase in household food consumption and farm income. Further diffusion of this IAA scheme is envisaged, but the implications of this are not entirely known.

Governments of south-eastern Africa have a launched programmes such as the 'Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy and Implementation Plan' for the Zambezi River Basin. However, those governments are insufﬁciently equipped to deal with governance and management of widely-dispersed, small-scale irrigation (SSI) systems.

The newly launched project GTZChinyanja in the lower Zambezi River basin endeavours to bridge the gap between the increase in adaptive capacity on a community level and regional integrated river basin management on a (sub) catchment level. In order to both introduce adaptive management to improve the livelihoods of rural communities and cope with climate change impact and regional market fluctuations, innovative participatory approaches including role-playing games and agent-based modelling are applied as a core methodology.

The multi-scale approach comprises hydrological modelling and climate change impact scenarios to develop options for enhancing adaptive capacity through diversification. Together with stakeholders, strategies for water allocation and management are identified and incorporated into water governance policy at the catchment level.

In addition to the scientific appraisal of integration of aquaculture in to diversified food production systems (IADFS), the implementation of a DSS is a central objective of the project. Furthermore, options for formal and informal institutional arrangements and policy implications for improved governance and management of small-scale irrigation systems are explored. If successful, the capacity of the National Agricultural Research System and other development agencies to engage in multi-stakeholder approaches will be increased. Furthermore, the project will provide an example of a cost-efficient and effective approach that builds on existing initiatives and enhances capacity in a multi-level governance system.


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CLOSING PLENARY SESSION

CPS-094

Water resource vulnerability & adaptation management to climate change & human activity in North China (invited presentation to topic: Impacts of large scale land use patterns and demographic changes) J. Xia, XY. Pan

Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

The impact of climate change and human activity on water resources vulnerability is a challenging issue with widespread concern globally. It is also the key of water security evaluation and adaptation management issue in the national sustainable development of China. Especially, in North China, water shortages and related environmental degradation are major issues facing the country. This study proposed a method applied to water pressure evaluation to represent water vulnerability as a function of people per flow unit of one million cubic meters per year, water use to availability ratio, and per capital water use. The levels of water vulnerability for five main river basins in north China are assessed and the impact of climate change and human activity are considerate for Hai River Basin with the most serious water vulnerability. The situation of water vulnerability is still very serious under climate change and socio-economy development to 2050 in Hai River. The results show that rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2050. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

GCI Conference December 2010, Bonn Author Index

as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37 77

AUTHOR INDEX

A Adeaga, O. 40 Affeltranger, B. 69 Ahmed, M. Sh. 48 Andersson, J.C.M.

37 Arnell, N. 49 Atzl, A. 71 Awulachew, S. 50 Awulachew, S.B.

26

B Badhwal, S. 32 Balsiger, J. 54 Bärlund, I. 31, 47 Beniston, M. 68 Biemans, H. 32 Bierkens, M.F.P.

47 Biney, Charles A.

45 Bonzi, C. 66 Bose, S. 43 Boyero, L. 68 Bozkir, E.D. 46 Bulent, Acma. 62 Bunn, S.E. 24 Busche, H. 48 Byrne, M.J. 65

C Cenacchi, N. 27 Chaubey, I. 66 Chen, Y.D. 51 Cherkauer, K. A.

66 Chulli, B. 42 Coelho, A.C. 60 Consortium, G.S.D.

68 Cook, S. 28 Cramer, W. 36 Crouzet, P. 52 Cumming, G. 28

D Danielyan, A. 64 Davies, P.M. 24 DeMarchi, C. 71 Demiraj, E. 37 Demissie, S.S. 26,

50 Devene, S. 41

Diekkrüger, B. 48 Diekkrüger, D. 50 Döll, P. 52 Dombrowsky, I. 72 Dreuse, A. 57 Dudgeon, D. 24

E Endejan, M. 52 Engel, B. 66

F Fader, M. 36 Favreau, G. 42 Fekete, B. 52, 68 Flörke, M. 47 Folke, C. 28 Fontane, D. 60 Foster, P.N. 25 Frenken, K. 52 Freyhof, J. 28, 57 Frijters, I.D. 46 Frolking, S. 29

G Gebru, B.K. 26 Geerken, R. 53 Gerten, D. 26, 36 Gessner, J. 33 Gessner, M.O. 24,

68 Giertz, S. 50 Girma, M.M. 26 Glidden, S. 24 Gordon, L. 28 Gosling, S. 49 Green, P. 24 Gupta, H. 65 Gupta, J. 70

H Hack, J. 56 Haerter, J.O. 27 Hagemann, S. 27 Han, M.Y. 24 Hanasaki, N. 59 Hara, M. 41 Harder, P. 30 He, C. 71 Heckelei, T. 46 Heidecke, C. 46 Heinke, J. 26, 36 Hengsdijk, H. 30 Hirsch, D. 31 Hoekstra, A.Y. 58 Hoff, H. 26, 28, 66 Hofstra, M.A. 46 Höllermann, B. 50 Horlemann, I. 72 Hürdler, J. 53

I Inuzuka, T. 59 Islam, A. 67

J Jansen, H. 30 Jebnoun, N. 42 Jewitt, G. 32 Jianyao, Chen. 38 Jordan, F. 68

K Kampata, J.M. 69 Kanae, S. 59 Khoshhal Dastjerdi,

J. 42, 64 Kienzle, S.W. 65 Kimura, F. 41 Kingston, D.G. 49 Klein, G. 29 Klinke, A. 54 Kloos, J. 51 Klose, A. 48 Klose, S. 48 Koschker, S. 57 Krywkow, J. 73 Kunz, M. 62 Kunz, R. 32 Kwadijk, J.C.J. 47

L Lakankar, T. 68 Laube, W. 57 Laurentis, G. 65 Lawford, R. 30 Lee, J. 54 Leentvaar, J. 46 Lehmann, M. 62 Lehner, B. 52 Lichun, Xie. 38 Liermann, C.R. 24 Linz, T. 51

M Ma, X. 41 Magome, J. 52 Magsig, B.-O. 55 Mahdavi, M. 42 Malve, O. 31 Marengo, J.A. 59,

65 Maringanti, C. 66 Mauser, W. 43 McCartney, M. 26,

50 McIntyre, P.B. 24 Mekonnen, M.M.

58 Mendiondo, M. 65

Menker, M. 50 Minasyan, S. 64 Moors, E. 32 Muller, M. 72 Munishi, S. 32 Murray, S.J. 25, 35

N Nachtnebel, H.P.

44 Nair, K.S. 39 Nair, S. 32 Ndini, M. 37 Ngcobo, S. 32 Nilsson, C. 52 Nobre, C.A. 59 Nosrati, K. 34 Nurtayev B.S. 38 Nyambe, I. 62

O Oberdorff, T. 63 Ojoyi, M. 32 Oki, T. 59 Ometto, J.P. 59

P Pahl-Wostl, C. 33,

70, 73 Paimpillil, J.S. 40 Pan, XY. 74 Park, C.H. 24 Parra, O. 36 Piani, C. 27 Prentice, I.C. 25 Prusevich, A. 24 Punzet, M. 31 Pusch, M. 33, 36

R Rademacher, C.

48 Rafiaei, A. 42, 64 Rafikov, V. 34 Raneef, M. 66 Reidy Liermann, C.

52 Reif, J. 57 Revenga, C. 52 Ringler, C. 27 Robertson, J. 52 Rockström, J. 28 Rödel, R. 52

S Schneider, S. 57 Schulz, O. 48 Schulze, R.E. 23 Schumann, A. 29 Schütt, B. 50

Author Index GCI Conference December 2010, Bonn

78 as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37

Sebaly, C. 57 Senn, DB. 62 Siehlow, M. 57 Sikka, A. K. 67 Sindorf, N. 52 Sommerwerk, N.

28 Sperna Weiland,

F.C. 47 Stefouli, M. 41 Störmer, E. 54 Stuart-Hill, S. 32 Stuart-Hill, S.I. 55 Sudheer, K. P. 66 Sukhodolov, A. 33 Sullivan, C.A. 24 Swart, R. 52

T Takahashi, H.G.

41 Taylor, R.G. 49 Teichert, E. 31, 47 Thammer, M. 36 Thomas, T. 66 Tielbörger, K. 66 Tisseuil, C. 63 Tockner, K. 28, 33,

57 Todd, M.C. 49 Toonen, T. 70 Tsegai, D. 51

U Uhlmann, B. 68

V Valdes, J. 65 van Beek, L.P.H.

47 van Driel, J. 30 van Pelt, S.C. 52 Vassolo, S. 53 Venema, H.D. 59 Venohr, M. 33, 53 Verma, N.M.P. 36 Vidal, A. 28 Viola, P. 32 Vlachos, E. 60 von Hirschhausen,

C. 57 Vörösmarty, C. 24,

52, 68 Voß, A. 31 Voß, F. 31, 47 Vrac, M. 63

W Wakazuki, Y. 41 Wamulume, J. 62

WANG, Q.X. 61 Watson, I.M. 25 Wehrli, B. 62 Wei, S.K. 70 Werner, R. 57 Williams, R. 31 Wisser, D. 29, 52 Wolter, C. 33 Wüest, A. 62

X Xia, J. 74 Xu, Z. 27 Xu, Z.X. 70

Y Yacubov, M. 34 Yang, H. 60, 70 Yazdani, M.R. 42,

64 Yoshikane, T. 41 Youkhana, E. 57 Yu, W. 27

Z Zhang, Q. 51 Zurbruegg, R. 62

GCI Conference December 2010, Bonn Personal notes

as of: 3 December 2010, 17:37 79

PERSONAL NOTES

Documents

The Global Dimensions of Change in River Basins - GWSP · Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environ-mental Change (IHDP), ... Environmental and socio -economic issues associated