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BY

The geopolitics of cybersecurityIAN BREMMER

By Ian Bremmer and David Gordon

Individual hackers and organized crime organizations have targeted businesses

or years, but cyberattacks have rarely created political risk. They do now. The

centralization of data networks -- both in energy distribution (the move to the

smart grid) and information technology more broadly (the shift to cloud

computing) -- is increasing the vulnerability of states to potentially debilitatingcyberattacks. As governments become more directly and actively involved in

cyberspace, geopolitics and cybersecurity will collide in three major ways.

First, new cyber capacity allows governments to project power in a world where

direct military strikes are much more costly and dangerous. There have been

lenty of stories about well-funded efforts from inside China to manipulate access

to the Internet, but it's the almost-certainly state-sponsored Stuxnet attacks on

Iran's industrial infrastructure that provide the clearest early glimpse of what

tomorrow's carefully targeted state-sponsored attack might look like. When a

issile is launched, everyone knows where it came from. Cyberattacks are a very

different story.

Second, we'll see more cyber conflicts between state-owned companies and

ultinational corporations, providing state capitalists with tools that give them a

competitive commercial advantage. China and Chinese companies are by far the

biggest concern here. Throw in Beijing's indigenous innovation plans, which are

http://redtape.msnbc.com/2010/11/china-web-hijacking-shows-net-at-risk.htmlhttp://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/12/the_geopolitics_of_cybersecurityhttp://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/12/the_geopolitics_of_cybersecurityhttp://redtape.msnbc.com/2010/11/china-web-hijacking-shows-net-at-risk.htmlhttp://www.economist.com/node/17147862?story_id=17147862http://www.foreignpolicy.com/profiles/Ian-Bremmerhttp://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/12/the_geopolitics_of_cybersecurity

7/25/2019 The Geopolitics of Cybersecurity

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20/9/2014 The geopolitics of cybersecurity

http://blog.foreignpol icy.com/posts/2011/01/12/the_geopol itics_of_cybersecur ity?wp_login_redirect=0

designed to ensure that China develops its own advanced technology, and this is

robably the world's most important source of direct conflict between states and

corporations.

hird, there is the increasing fallout from the WikiLeaks problem, as those

sympathetic to Julian Assange unleash attacks on governments and the

corporations that support them in targeting WikiLeaks and its founder. In fact, the

rincipal cybersecurity concern of governments has shifted from potential attacks

by al Qaeda or Chinese security forces to radicalized info -- anarchists undertaking

a debilitating attack against critical infrastructure, a key government agency, or a

illar of the financial system. Whether attacks are waged for power (state versus

state), profit (particularly among state capitalists), or for 'the people,' (as in the

ikiLeaks case), this will be a wildcard to watch in 2011.

On Friday, we'll talk about Top Risk no. 4: China -- and why its policymakers will

rustrate much of the international community this year.

Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group. David Gordon is the firm's head of

esearch.

IM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/its-time-to-get-serious-about-cyber-attack-risk-20101228-1998p.html