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The Geographical Correlates of Global Poverty
Everyone thinks they know where the poor are: Is anybody right?
Marc LevyDeborah BalkGlenn DeaneAdam StoreygardSonya AhamedCIESINEarth InstituteColumbia Universitywww.ciesin.columbia.edu
1. Motivation and approach
2. Where are the poor – simple descriptives
3. Where are the poor – multivariate regressions
4. Conclusions and implications – methods, data, interventions
Motivations
Describe spatial patternsHotspots, traps, anomalies, …
Test hypothesesClimate, elevation, disease vectors, access to markets, soil fertility as constraints on human development
Explore differences in regional patternsDo these relationships vary across world regions?
Support design of effective interventionsFacilitate interdisciplinary research on poverty
contingent on spatial dynamics
Infant Mortality Rate
0-15: Not poor
15-32: Somewhat poor
32- 65: Moderately poor
65-100: Poor
100- up: Extremely poor
Not poor Somewhat poor Moderately poor
Poor Extremely poor
Bars show Sums
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
po
p_p
er
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
NTILES of ELVV
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
po
p_p
er
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
NTILES of ELVV
Elevation
Distance to PortNot poor Somewhat poor Moderately poor
Poor Extremely poor
Bars show Sums
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
po
p_p
er
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
NTILES of prta
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
po
p_p
er
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
NTILES of prta
Elevation and Distance to PortDistribution of extremely poor populationDistribution of Non-Poor Population
Length of Growing SeasonNot poor Somewhat poor Moderately poor
Poor Extremely poor
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
% o
f p
op
ula
tio
n
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Growing season class
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
% o
f p
op
ula
tio
n
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Growing season class
Drought (3 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons with rainfall at least 50% below normal)
Not poor Somewhat poor Moderately poor
Poor Extremely poor
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
% o
f p
op
ula
tio
n
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 19
Drought frequency 1980-2000
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
% o
f p
op
ula
tio
n
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 19
Drought frequency 1980-2000
Growing Season and DroughtDistribution of non-poor population
Distribution of poor and extremely poor population
Spatial dependencies confound ability to calculate regression
models
Who is my neighbor?
Anomalies: Africa elevation effect (malaria?) Chemical soil properties Slope
Access behaves largely as expected.
Pop Density or Transport always sig; not always both.
Asia an anomaly (China effect?)
Most consistent biophysical effects: Drought Physical and mineral soil deficiencies Malaria
Conclusions
• Observations, methods need to catch up.
• Global patterns discernible, but clear regional differences.
• Clear impact of geographic factors weakly reflected in dominant intervention debates.
Remoteness is rampant in 60 countries, and poor farmers face high input prices and poor opportunities to sell products, says TI
Transportation International’s Access Index ranks a record 146 countries; most sub-Saharan African countries are prone to high remoteness
Transportation International
Market Access Index 2004
TRANSPORTATIONINTERNATIONALthe coalition for access
Thanks!
