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Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 1
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
The Future Trends
in Tourism -
Global Perspectives
‚the future of TOURISM‘,
a Club of Amsterdam conference31.05.2007, Amsterdam.
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 2
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
[A] Tourism – already a global competition
The current state:
facts & figures
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 3
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 4
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright © Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 5
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 6
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 7
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 8
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 9
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
The World‘s Top-30-Airports (in terms of passenger traffic) and Share of World Regions
Source: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 10
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
The future state:
forecasts & figures
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 11
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
2005 – 2025:
Two Asian Decades
[T1] Tourism Future - New Geographies
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 12
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Source: WTTC 2007
Asia‘sFutureTourismTigers
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 13
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Source: WTTC 2007
Asia‘sFutureTourismTiger
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 14
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Source: WTTC 2007
Asia‘sFutureTourismTigers
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 15
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 16
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
LCC in Asia‘s Tourism Market [2006]
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 17
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Source: UNWTO: http://www.unwto.org/facts/eng/vision.htm
UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [International Tourist Arrivals Forecast]
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 18
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [Forecast]
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 19
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Passenger Traffic Growth Forecasts 2006 – 2025 in World Regions PaxKm 2005 in bn. Growth Forecast 2006 – 2025
Quelle: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007
Average Annual Growth Rate
in %
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 20
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Europe‘s New Burden -
Retirement Poverty
[T2] Tourism Future – „Ageing Europe“
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 21
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Life exspectancy at birth, 2001
Tourism Future &Ageing Europe
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 22
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Population Ageing in the EU, France and Italy, 2000-2050
Tourism Future &Ageing Europe
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 23
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Facts:Tourism Future &Ageing Europe
• By 2030 the EU can expect 14 percent fewer workers and7 percent fewer consumers as 2005
• According to the United Nations, population ageing is increasingly becoming one of the most salient social, economic and demographic phenomena of our times.
• By 2050, the number of people over 60 in Europe will reach 40% of the total population or 60% of the working age population.
• Population Ageing
• Depopulation
and
• Shrinking Cities
[in EUROPE]
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 24
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Population Ageing in the EU:
• Germany• Belgium• Denmark• Spain• France
Years 2000 / 2020 / 2050
Share of persons 60 years and over [as a % of the total population; Source: Eurostat]
Germany:2000: 22,9% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 41%
Belgium: 2000: 22.1% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 38%
Denmark: 2000: 19.9% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 36%
Spain: 2000: 21.8% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 44%
France: 2000: 20.7% - 2020: 29% - 2050: 38%
Tourism Future &Ageing Europe
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 25
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
• Population Ageing
• Depopulation
and
• Shrinking Cities
[in EUROPE]
Consequences:Tourism Future &Ageing Europe
• Old Age Poverty &• Social Exclusion
• Shrinking Income• Shrinking Consumption• Skrinking Wealth
• Growing Health Risks &• Long Term Health Problems
• Large Scale Immobilities &• Neglected Space [Destinations]
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 26
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Consequences:Tourism Future &Ageing Europe
• Old Age Poverty &• Social Exclusion
• Shrinking Income• Shrinking Consumption• Skrinking Wealth
• Growing Health Risks &• Long Term Health Problems
• Large Scale Immobilities &• Neglected Space [Destination]
• Population Ageing
• Depopulation
and
• Shrinking Cities
[in EUROPE]
Results from the SHARE-Project [http://www.share-project.org]
...clearly indicate that men and women with a lower socio-economic status have already a worse physical health than those with a higher socio-economic position
Among both men and women, a low educational level or income is associated with a higher risk of reporting less than good self-perceived health, long-term problems, as well as activity limitations due to health problems.
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 27
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Consequences:Tourism Future &Ageing Europe
• Old Age Poverty &• Social Exclusion
• Shrinking Income• Shrinking Consumption• Skrinking Wealth
• Growing Health Risks &• Long Term Health Problems
• Large Scale Immobilities &• Neglected Space [Destination]
• Population Ageing
• Depopulation
and
• Shrinking Cities
[in EUROPE]
Discussed Solution:New Migrant Workers:
80–700 million migrants by 2050!
A sustainable increase of VFR-Tourism shall follow!
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 28
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
„CU soon, my friend/brother“ -
Global
VFR-Tourism
Streams
[T3] Tourism Future – „VFR-Tourism“
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 29
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright © Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007
The Sustainable VFR-Tourism Trend in World Tourism
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 30
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
„The Mediterranization of
Western- and Central-Europe“ -
Climate Change Advantages [?]
[T4] Tourism Future & Climate Change
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 31
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth‘s surface temperature for:
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 32
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth‘s surface temperature for...
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 33
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright © Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 34
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
IPCC-Data: Regional Warming [inter-modell consistancy]
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 35
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
North Amerika Europe
Amerika
Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 36
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
North Amerika Europe
Amerika
Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 37
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
North Amerika Europe
Amerika
Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 38
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
North America North-East-Asia
Amerika
Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006
Caribbean
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 39
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
North America North-East-Asia
Amerika
Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006
Caribbean
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 40
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
North America North-East-Asia
Amerika
Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006
Caribbean
Elderly (esp. European)may avoid travel to „very hot summer destinations“; i. g.• the Mediterranean Basin• East Coast USA• South-West USA• Australian Cities
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 41
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
NW- and Central-Europe‘s Domestic and Incoming Tourism Streamsmay benefit from CC inthe summer saison!
• Warmer Coastal Waters [Increase in Sun & Beach Tourism]
• New Marine Attractions [Dolphins, Fish Species, Algae and Corals, Birds]
• Warmer Land Surfaces & • Mediterranization of Lifstyles