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The Bin-Laden effect
• Not as big as you might think (this isn’t 2004)
• Terrorism was a minor issue in 2008 and not a factor in 2010
• No Republican hopefuls are running on “foreign policy”
Incumbency
• The Last incumbents who lost were– 1992– 1980– 1976
• He is facing no primary challenger
Campaign Finance
• $1,000,000,000
• Citizens United Money as well
• This alone discourages most challengers
Popular on the Left• Strong Support Among
Democrats
• Very popular among key constituencies
• Policies are popular, and he is personally popular
Signs of Economic Growth
• Unemployment peaked in October 2009 (10.1%)
• Increase in consumer confidence
Going In to 2012
• Both Parties are optimistic
• Unknowns– The Economy
– The Republican Nominee
– Seats in the House and Senate
Scenario 1: The Status Quo
• Little Change in either the House or Senate
• A “personal victory” for Obama (e.g. 1984)
• Good odds of this happening
Scenario 2: An Emerging Democratic Majority
• Coincides with an Obama victory
• The Democrats take back the House, expand lead in the Senate
• A return to the Obama Coalition.
Scenario 3: A Republican Congress
• GOP keeps the House
• The GOP Surges in the Senate
• This leads to full-scale battle between the President and Congress
Scenario 4: A Republican Sweep
• The GOP maintains the House
• Gains 4 in the Senate
• Wins the Presidency
• Very Unlikely
Who Might Run against Obama?• Candidates need to
decide if this is their window
• Who runs depends on what happens in the next 6 months