The Future of Wireless

Dr. Hamdy Ellaithy Vodafone Egypt

6th Annual Private Sector Cooperation MeetingIn the Arab Region

December 2007

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The world goes broadband

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Source : OECD

DSL performance sets user expectations

UK Broadband Penetration

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Mbp

s

xDSL GSM/WCDMA

ADSL1Mbps

ADSL2Mbps

ADSL28Mbps

ADSL2+25Mbps

HSDPA 3.6Mbps

VDSL250Mbps

HSDPA 7.2Mbps

?

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Terminal capability is raising the stakes

iPhone also driving awareness of Mobile

Internet…

… the physical embodiment of Moore’s Law

…but coupled closely with the PC activating device and

enabling upgrades

TVMP3

CameraPersonal navigation

Mobile Internet

Increasing multimedia functionality & services

Full WWW capabilities now driving Web 2.0 innovation

on the mobile platform

+Increasing dependency on wireless broadband for a

compelling user experience

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Spectrum is again on the agenda

• Allocation by auction

• Auction income causes governments to “find” more spectrum, reducing shortage of supply

• Gradual move to lighter regulation – _ Spectrum “rights” may permit change of use_ Spectrum may be traded

The Old World

Shortage of spectrum

Heavily regulated – usage defined by regulators

Allocation by “Beauty Contest”

Barrier to new entrantsA New World has emerged

Licensed and Unlicensed

“3G extension band” at 2.5 - 2.69 GHz

“Digital Dividend” at 470-860 MHz – Can we get coordination in Europe?

Opportunities on horizon

If spectrum is divided between too many, it becomes useless!!

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Wireless broadband - contenders & timelines

HSPA

LTE

MobileWiMAX

Rev C

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

HSDPA 3.6 Mbps HSDPA 7.2 Mbps HSDPA 7.2 Mbps HSPA + ?

HSUPA 1.4Mbps HSUPA 5.7 Mbps

Specification process Complete ~ Q4 07

Available2009/2010

802.16e-2005 ratifiedQ4 ‘05

R1.0 Wave1 available

Q1 ’07R1.0 Wave2available

Q4 ’07 Mobile WiMAX R2.02009/2010?

JointproposalJuly ’06

Test specifications& pre-commercial trials

Performance requirementsDefine RAN architecture

SpecificationComplete

~Q2 ’07

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Radio performance comparison – spectral efficiency• Charts are a measure of

spectral efficiency based on the aggregate site throughput (assuming three sectors per site)

• Expressed as bits/sec/Hz/site

• 10MHz overall system bandwidth in all cases

• All three systems offer similar performance once WiMAX gets to “Wave 2” stage (Q1 08)

• “Intel vision” will be driven as a performance target within the latest IEEE 802.16m standard – Vodafone will engage in this process

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Radio performance comparison – peak rates

HSPA "Rev C" LTE Wave 1 Wave 205

1015202530354045

Peak

dat

a ra

te M

bps Downlink peak

Uplink peak

5+5 MHz FDD 10 MHz TDD, 3:1 DL:UL ratio

• Peak rate can be a misleading measure of system performance. In reality, users are unlikely to achieve these data rates across a meaningful area except if small cells are deployed

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How many users can be supported? • Profile of data usage – three examples considered:_ Real time video streaming_ Mobile office_ Web browsing

• Key assumptions_ Typical www browsing model with

>90% of users receiving page in less than 4 seconds. Mean page size approx 25kB.

_ Mobile office e-mails / file transfer generates 75MB in 8 hour working day = 21 kbps

_ Video streaming is variable bit rate, but averages 256kbps or 1 Mbps per stream. 5% outage rate.

_ Only downlink has been considered

_ All technologies using 10MHz spectrum (5+5 FDD, 10 TDD). WiMax has asymmetric ratio (3:1) in favour of downlink.

Wave 1 Wave 2HSPA LTEHSPA+

HSPA (Rx div, Eq)HSPA+ (MIMO)LTEMobile WiMax Wave 1Mobile WiMax Wave 2

Video (256kbps) Video (1Mbps) Mobile Office (75 MB/8 hrs) or browsing1417363856

<1

1?

1-2?

<1

<1310

490

150

330

120

0100200300400500600

0102030405060

Number of streaming video users (@ 256 kbps) per cell

Number of Mobile office or www users per cell

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But more spectrum equals more users –Sprint has upwards of 60MHz in key markets

• Going from N=1 to N=3 significantly reduces interference. This boosts sector throughput (x2 approx.) and improves availability peak data rates.

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

30MHzN=3

60MHzN=3

10MHzN=1

Number of Mobile office or www users

per cell

Wave 2 Wave 2 Wave 2

0

50

100

150

200

250Number of streaming video

users (@ 256 kbps) per cell

30MHzN=3

60MHzN=3

10MHz

Coverage plots illustrate peak downlink data rate with N=1 and N=3 frequency reuse

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Other approaches to wireless broadband: Mesh WiFi

Vodafone R&D technology trials

Explored WLAN based multi-hop relay systems, but with mixed success. Coverage remains a challenge, and rapid re-routing destroys performance

Other trials showed good throughput but very slow routing

Can we get both together?

• >300 municipal broadband networks are planned or deployed in the U.S. metro areas using mesh WiFi. Now starting to appear in Europe.

• Inexpensive access points (using 802.11) wirelessly linked using licence exempt spectrum.

• The technology provider space is crowded but Tropos claim to own 80% market share…

• No device subsidy, plus subsidised “base sites” / backhaul can drive down the overall cost.

• The technology works to some extent but the business case has yet to be proven

A “service for the community” – plus vertical applications for municipals

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Computers (with Communication)

Sell goods, subsidise services

Broadband bit pipes

Best effort

Internet architecture

TDD radio technologies

LTE

• (Smart) Phones

• Sell services, subsidise goods

• Value added services

• Reliable and secure

• Telecoms architecture / interworking

• FDD radio technologies

Two routes to the wireless future

IEEE 802.16

IT Community Telecom Community

•

• • • • •

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Long TermEvolution

+ Clear choice in Europe? Needs US support? Diverse spectrum choices- No commercial orders likely

for some time

+ Commercial order in US+ Clear view on spectrum? Traction in emerging markets- Tough play in Europe

Industry Balance – China Will Play a Big Role

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TodayTodayHorizontal Network (multi-services)Horizontal Network (multi-services)

ContentServices

Access

YesterdayYesterdayVertical Networks (single service)Vertical Networks (single service)

Mob

ile

Fixe

d D

ata

Net

Fixe

d Te

leph

ony

WLA

N

Services

Transport, Switching & Access Networks

Access Access

Content

ServicesEnvironment

IP Multi-Servicesnetwork

Network ‘horizontalisation’

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Deployment Challenge

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The coverage challenge – what kind of site?• Vodafone study aiming at comprehensive

dense urban coverage with 1MB/s uplink estimated required site density:_ 10 Macro /km2 – impractical?_ 150 lamppost /km2

• Lamppost network could use simpler, smaller equipment and less spectrum

BUT

• Big challenge to deliver backhaulMacro Lamppost

• Backhaul options – DSL? Fibre? Microwave Mesh?

• Need a flexible, resilient, high capacity solution allowing rapid deployment

The backhaul challenge

The biggest challenge in deploying broadband networks will be delivering cost-effective backhaul

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“Base stations” deployed in the home

Subscribers deploy their own coverage -network deployment better tailored to subscriber demand.

Very low power (~20mW initially)

MetroZone

takes -

takes -

Femtocells

Residential

DSLBackhaulProvision

TheVodafoneNetworkDSL

ModemVAP3G HSPA / WiFi Access

3G Access

Standard 3G UE

DSL to Customers Premises

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Take-aways

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Points Raised

• New breeds of base stations – femto cells, microcells, relaying nodes

• Ever more personal and tactile terminals

• New technology – OFDMA instead of CDMA

• Multiplicity of access technologies

• New frequency bands – 2.6 GHZ and UHF

• Greater responsibility for use of spectrum

• Convergence of telecommunications and the Internet

• New players from the Internet community with lessons to learn

• Vodafone playing a greater role in determining which technologies will dominate

• China