The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East - A Vision to 2020A global perspective on the industry’s challenges in the region

Global Futures and Foresight

May 2007

Global Futuresand Foresight

“This study is a ground breaking project for the Middle East and will provide a truly international perspective on how travel in the region could develop and what the implications might be. Being associated with this leading work is a demonstration of our commitment to contributing to the sustainable development of travel in the region.”

Richard Mortimore, Chief Executive,Reed Travel Exhibitions

Bahrain Egypt Iran Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey UAE Yemen

Platinum Sponsors

Going for Growth - Across the region, countries, states and

cities are embarking on an unparalleled program of investment

and development to increase capacity, improve infrastructures

and grow tourist numbers and revenues. Current estimates

suggest that over the next 20 years, upwards of $3 trillion is

going directly into leisure and tourism and indirectly into the

supporting infrastructure.i Through projects announced to date,

by 2020 the region will add airport capacity for 300M extra

passengers,ii build over 200 new hotels, add 100,000 additional

rooms,iii grow visitor numbers to 150M, and increase the size of

it’s aircraft fleet by over 150% by 2025.iv v

To explore the potential implications of such explosive growth and

development, Global Futures and Foresight has launched a major

program of study into the future of travel and tourism in the

Middle East to 2020. The aim of the study is to identify the

drivers and barriers which could sustain, accelerate or curtail the

forecast boom in travel and tourism in the region. The study will

identify key global, regional and local security, political, economic,

social, technological, environmental and legislative trends,

examine consumer behaviours and explore potential ‘wild cards’

and discontinuous changes. It will then develop scenarios

highlighting their possible impact on the region’s plans.

Uncertain Future - In studying the future one thing becomes

clear, there is not one certain future that we are inexorably

moving towards but many possible futures. The future that

ultimately emerges will be formed by our own plans and by

changes and forces in our external environment including trends,

new ideas, discontinuous change and ‘wild card’ low probability,

high impact events. The current plans of countries, states, cities

and individual developers and operators are underpinned by a

strong growth-orientated ‘preferred future’. Any analysis of history

shows that the outcome at the end of any five, ten or twenty year

time period rarely resembles what was forecast at the start.

Hence, treating the future as a single certain outcome is a high

risk strategy. By considering a range of possible futures, the study

aims to help minimise risks and surface opportunities for

everyone engaged in the industry. Reed Travel Exhibitions and the

Arabian Travel Market are the Platinum and launch sponsors of

this study. We invite other parties who are interested in better

understanding the future of the travel and tourism market in the

Middle East region to join us in this exciting project.

Issues – How broad are the scenarios you have considered?

How willing is your organisation to ‘discuss the undiscussable’

and think about those factors that may challenge your current

growth assumptions? What if growth differs significantly from

current forecasts?

This Report - In this section we explore some of the key

challenges for the region in delivering its current travel and

tourism strategies. In the second section we explore some of

the critical global trends and drivers of change which could have

the greatest bearing on the sector. In the centre pages of the

report, we present a timeline that outlines many of the most

interesting landmark developments, targets and issues arising on

the path to 2020 and beyond. In the final section we provide a

short summary of some of the key plans and developments

across the region and a table that enables us to compare the

countries of the region at a glance.

Vision and Viability - An analysis of the country strategies

on pages 11-13 highlights that the region has the ambition,

resources and commitment to turn vision into reality.

The challenge is to ensure the long term viability of those

strategies. Going all out to deliver 10M, 15M or 20M visitors

presents one set of challenges, sustaining those numbers

represents a very different issue set.

Issues - How will we find future customers to sustain our

visitor targets? How will we maintain the price premium

required to deliver our desired rate of return?

What will it cost to update amenities and infrastructure to

ensure we stay competitive with other planned and future

developments in the region and further afield?

How will we respond if visitor numbers don’t meet our

business plan targets?

Information Reliability - In our research we found huge

variation between the visitor forecasts coming from different

sources such as the national tourist agencies, the WTTC and

independent research houses (figure 1). In Turkey the variation

in expected tourist numbers by 2010 is between 22m and 30m.

Investors, developers, facility operators, governments and

infrastructure planners need reliable and up to date forecast

data on which to base their assumptions and plans.

More importantly, those developing tourist and leisure facilities

need to see that infrastructure planners are working to the same

set of growth assumptions to ensure adequate provision of water,

sanitation, power, transportation and telecommunications.

Issue – is there the potential for a central regional agency which

defines standards, collects data and generates forecasts on a

consistent basis so the outputs can then be used by everyone?

The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East

Tourist Number Forecasts by Country(Dates shown are Countries tourist forecast for that year)

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Millions of tourists per year

WTTC (Adjusted) CurrentGovernment Current FigureWTTC (Adjusted) ForecastGovernment Forecast

Saud

i Ara

bia

Turk

ey

Egyp

t

Jord

an

Syri

a

Kuw

ait

Iran

Qat

ar

UA

E

Bahr

ain

Om

an

Leba

non

Yem

en

2020

2010

2014

2010

2010

2010

2010

2020

2010

2010

2025 2010

Figure 1

$US,000’s

Tourist visitor growth plotted against annual Tourist revenue percitizen $US,000 and against annualTourists per citizen

An

nu

al

tou

ris

ts/c

itiz

en

Bahrain2016

Bahrain2006

UAE2006

UAE2006Kuwait

2016

Kuwait2006

Jordan2016

Jordan2016

Saudi Arabia2016

Qatar2006

Qatar2016

Lebanon2016

Lebanon

2016

Syria2016

Syria2006

Egypt2016

Oman2016

Oman2006

Iran2006

Yemen2006, 2016

16

12

8

4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

1.75

1.25

1.0

.75

.5

.25

0

Figure 2

Innovation - A wave of innovation has swept the sector and is

creating developments like the Palms, the Pearl, the Louvre,

Hydropolis underwater hotel, and the world’s largest buildings,

hotels and airports are all in the pipeline. However, many are

international in nature and could equally have been located in

Shanghai, Stockholm or Sharjah. The region’s challenge now is

to drive the next wave of innovation that emphasises, celebrates

and promotes Middle Eastern cultures, heritage and tradition.

Issue - What aspects of your culture, heritage or tradition

will you emphasise in tourist developments and promotion in

the future?

Competition and Co-operation – Average length of stay in

some destinations is currently as low as 1.5 days.vi To achieve

the desired returns, destinations and attractions will need to

drive up average length of stay and consider collaboration.

Jordan, Turkey, Egypt and Israel are already exploring the potential

for marketing multi-center visits. The key to success will be to

ensure a seamless experience for the traveller and minimise the

time spent in airports and customs clearance – possibly making

road and rail options more attractive. Clear differentiation will also

be required of the attractions on offer from one destination to the

next. Simply swapping from one luxury five star hotel to the next

may not be enough.

Issues – Can the region’s players get beyond competition to

achieve win-win collaboration? How do we create a seamless

and hassle-free experience for the multi-center visitor across

the region and possibly with destinations in Asia?

Sustainability /Protection of Culture andHeritage/Volume vs. ValueA key dimension to consider is the social, economic and

environmental sustainability of the region’s travel ambitions.

Figure 2 uses WTTC figures for income per tourist, the number

of visitors per citizen in 2006 and the forecasts for 2016.

The diagram highlights clear positioning choices – for example in

2016 Qatar is targeting tourist income of over $US11,000 per

citizen, it is seeking to do this at a level of just over two tourists

per citizen. In contrast, Jordan, Saudi and Oman expect visitor to

citizen ratios of between 0.75 and 1.5 - but with only $1,000 to

$1,700 tourist income per citizen. Given that irrespective of

spend, each visitor places roughly the same demand per day on

resources and on use of the infrastructure, water and other

services, the chart highlights clear choices in where countries

position their tourist proposition. High tourist numbers, with

shorter stays put undue pressure on transit facilities and airline

capacities. This also raises the issue of how far down countries

are willing to chase prices in order to utilise capacity once built

and may place an even stronger emphasis on more phased and

flexible development approaches.

Issues – Given the growing concern over the region’s supply

of fresh water and the demands placed on infrastructure,

will this inevitably force players to move upmarket and

focus on attracting smaller numbers of longer staying,

higher spending visitors?

Differentiation and Target Market - The region will have no

shortage of high end luxury developments and international

standard attractions. The issue is how effectively the promoters

can identify and target the market segments who will be the most

ready users of these facilities. Longer term, there will be a

growing need for differentiation between facilities within a

destination and between destinations.

Issues: Will you target older or younger, Americans, Europeans,

locals or Asians? Will you emphasise activity, sport, cultural or

health tourism and in what mix? What do you want your location

to be famous for?

Tourists per Tourist Industry Employee300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Service Ratio CurrentService Ratio 2017

Yem

en

Iran

Egyp

t

Leba

non

Turk

ey

UA

E

Om

an

Jord

an

Kuw

ait

Syri

a

Saud

i Ara

bia

Qat

ar

Bahr

ain

Figure 3

Service Standards - Figure 3 highlights a massive variation in

the expected number of visitors per travel and tourism sector

employee. To provide a consistent benchmark this model

assumes an average length of stay of one night. Given the desire

of many destinations to achieve premium positioning, service

ratio will be a critical determinant of the visitor experience.

Issues – What is the optimum service ratio for your desired

market positioning? How do you currently compare with other

destinations and attractions? Can you use a more favourable

service ratio as part of the marketing proposition? Is the region

prepared to start investing in tertiary, secondary, primary and

even nursery education facilities in Asia and Africa to educate

the next two generations of service staff required to meet the

future staffing needs of the region’s travel and tourism sector?

Flexibility - The construction of a temporary facility at

Doha airport to handle 30M passengers for the Asian games

demonstrates that more flexible and modular approaches can be

adopted to meet temporary demand spikes.vii For the region, given

the uncertainties around security and climate change, flexibility

may be critical to avoid over-capacity. Concepts such as flatpack

temporary hotels, floating hotels, and low-environmental footprint

solutions may all need to be considered to mitigate the risks of

demand lagging supply.

Issue – are players in the region willing to consider such

flexible alternatives given the current focus on large

showpiece developments?

Safety - The issues of terrorism and inter-state conflict are well

rehearsed and don’t need revisiting here. However, other

challenges cannot be ignored – for example, could the region’s

reclaimed islands be at major risk from rising sea levels? Other

weather related events such as tsunamis and hurricanes are

expected to increase in ferocity and frequency. The 1918

influenza pandemic killed over 40m people, and there have been

two since then.vii The risk is rising of global pandemics through

the spread of diseases such as SARS and Avian Flu.

Issue - What impact might just one climate disaster or

disease outbreak have on regional tourist numbers?

Resources - Some forecasts suggest water availability could

halve across the region within 50 yearsix – and these may not

fully account for anticipated tourism growth. At the same time

the construction of hotel, airport and leisure facilities will

create major demand for steel, glass, concrete and other

construction materials.

Issue - The lack of water could become a major constraint on

the region’s ability to attract and sustain the desired levels of

tourists. Rising raw material prices may affect the viability and

payback period of projects.

Global Drivers of Change -Understanding a Changing WorldThe future is not a single destination. As we look ahead to 2020,

there are a number of different possible outcomes and some

key factors that will have the greatest influence on which path

we take and where we end up in 2020. The future of travel

and tourism in the Middle East will both influence and be

influenced by these critical global drivers of change.

These key political, economic, social, demographic, technological

and environmental factors will influence everything from social

attitudes and consumer demand to resource availability; they

will shape confidence in the sector and drive government policy

and regulation around the world. In this section we explore

these global drivers, highlight potential futures they make

possible and identify key questions raised for decision makers

in business and government.

Economic Power Shift - China is now the fourth largest global

economy and India the 9th.x Rising populations, growing

industrialisation, the opening up of markets and globalisation

of industries are helping to accelerate economic shifts and the

rise of Asia. By 2050, countries like Bangladesh, the Philippines

and Vietnam could all be among the top 20. From the region,

Turkey, Egypt and Iran could rank 17th, 19th and 21st xi.

These shifts are creating new trading relationships, opening

up new opportunities and creating whole new target markets

for inbound visitors and investors.

Impact – The world is discovering these new economies and the

competition for their attention and markets is intensifying.

Issue – How can the region position itself to maximise visitor

flows from these rapidly growing economies?

Growth and Ageing of the Global Population - The world’s

population rose from 3bn in 1960 to 6bn in 2000, and is

forecast to reach 7.6Bn by 2020 and 9Bn by 2050.

While Europe is expected to shrink by over 100M by 2050,

most regions will grow and Asia, the Middle East and Africa will

experience the most dramatic increases xii. At the same time,

many nations are experiencing rapid ageing of their populations

through a combination of dramatically falling birth rates and

increasing life expectancy. Globally, the proportion of those over

60 will rise from 10% today to 13.6% in 2020 and 20% by 2050.

The spread will range from 50% in some European countries

to 5% in Africa. Life expectancy in developed economies has

risen 20 years in the last 80 In Japan, Europe and The USA,

life expectancy is now around 80 and heading towards 100

within the lifetime of our children xiii. Citizens over 65 in Europe

and the USA own over 70% of all the personal assets of

those economies.xiv

Impact – These changes will significantly impact the level

of disposable income, who holds the wealth, where future

customers will come from, how old they will be and from

where we recruit future staff. Extended lifespans could see

funds being switched from travel and leisure to cover living

and health expenses.

Issue – Do our marketing plans reflect global population

change? How can we ensure the region is an attractive

destination for older visitors? How can we ensure a continuous

flow of suitably educated and motivated staff?

Wealthier - Wealth levels are rising globally and the rapid rise of

Asia is generating a new class of wealthy citizens with the desire

to travel. MasterCard suggest that by 2014 there will be over

650M Middle Class households in Asia earning above US$5,000

a year – the threshold above which people tend to travel

abroadxv. They estimate China will have 293M and India 102M

earning at this level. China’s Government estimates that by 2020

at least 100M tourists will visit foreign destinations and generate

US$94Bn in tourist revenuesxvi. In developed countries, property

values rose by US$30 trillion from 2001 to 2005. This new

wealth is driving demand for second properties overseas and

increasing travel flowsxvii.

Impact – Could demand for travel and for second homes ever

outstrip the available supply in the region?

Issue – Given rising numbers at every wealth level, the region’s

players will need to make critical decisions on which sectors of

the market they target. Are airlines, hotels and leisure services

gearing up to serve the needs of the new Asian traveller?

Healthier - The quest for longevity and healthier lifestyles will

be major drivers of travel demand. Medical tourism in India is

forecast to reach $2Bn by 2012. Thailand – a popular market

with Asians and Americans - earns over $850M a year from this

market - forecast to reach $1Bn by 2008xviii. Many countries in

the Middle East are planning to compete in this growing market.

General interest in outdoor and ‘working holidays’ is rising fast.

43% of travellers are likely to go hiking, up from 24% one year

ago, and 39% plan adventure activities like para-sailing and

white-water rafting, up from 29% last year.xix

Impact – Regular health related visits could increase the

duration and frequency of visits if the quality and cost compare

favourably with other heath tourism destinations. The region

may be able to offer more high quality hotel facilities and better

infrastructure than many other destinations.

Issue – Given the cost of equipping and maintaining health

facilities and the competition from other forms of tourism, the

region’s players will need to decide where to focus their

development efforts to maximise the returns.

“Over the past few years, the world's population has

continued on its remarkable transition path from a state

of high birth and death rates to one characterized by

low birth and death rates. At the heart of that transition

has been the growth in the number and proportion of

older persons. Such a rapid, large and ubiquitous growth

has never been seen in the history of civilization.”

Source: Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,

United Nations Secretariat http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/ageing/agewpop.htm

Future Competition - Alongside existing popular destinations,

a number of new travel alternatives will emerge to compete for

the attention of visitors to and from the region. The world

economic map will look very different in 2020 and by 2050,

nations such as Pakistan, Indonesia and Nigeria all have the

potential to be amongst the 20 largest xx. Luxury travel and

tourism forms a key part of each of these nation’s development

plans. India and China have already established themselves

as competitor destinations - China could receive more visitors

than Spain by 2010, becoming the second most popular

destination globally.xxi

Impact – Tourists will have increasing levels of choice. Many of

the emerging destinations will place a strong emphasis on local

culture to differentiate their propositions and low wages may

enable them to maintain high staff to customer ratios.

Issue – The region’s destinations will need to identify clear

target market segments and have differentiated propositions.

Sustainable Tourism - The 2007 intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) report confirmed a 90% likelihood that

human actions are warming the planet and thereby increasing

the risk of future flooding and climate related disasters.xxii

At the same time, concerns are increasing over consumption

levels – between three and five planets’ worth of resources could

be required if global consumption levels rose to match those in

Europe and the USAxxiii. Water demand is also a growing concern -

The World Bank estimates that water availability per person in

the Middle East and North Africa is set to drop by half by 2050.

Rising tourist numbers will increase these pressures.

Every US state has passed legislation to reduce the production

of greenhouse gasses and to move towards more sustainable

manufacturing and consumptionxxiv. Governments are beginning to

impose ‘carbon taxes’ on flights emanating from their countries.

While emissions per passenger mile may be lower than other

transport modes, a lot of air travel is considered discretionary

and hence an easy way to target emission reductions.

Impact – The attention being paid to climate change and

sustainability issues is rising fast. A tipping point could soon

be hit where carbon allowances and reduction targets are

imposed on firms and individuals. Future visitor forecasts

and development plans may need to be scaled back and

greater focus put on the environmental footprint of existing

and new developments.

Issue – Can the region respond by establishing global best

practice standards on emissions, energy efficiency and waste?

Human Resources - Over the next 10 years, it is estimated

that across the region over 1.5M new jobs will need to be

created in travel and tourism – possibly more if all current

development plans and proposals are executedxxv.

Global competition is rising both for experienced management

and junior service personnel as both established and emerging

economies compete for this scarce resource.i

Impact – The industry will need long term thinking about how it

will recruit, train, reward and train personnel. Partnerships may

be required with developing nations to establish educational

facilities that act as feeder programmes for future staff.

Issue – Guest workers may find the rewards on offer at home

begin to match those available in the region.

Service Innovation and Excellence - Rising customer

expectations and industry competition are driving up service

benchmarks particularly in high end luxury categories.

Increasingly, standards are being set by developing nations

looking to differentiate themselves. For example Asiana Airlines

of Korea has won Global Traveller’s award for Best Onboard

Service and Flight Attendants for three years running and Korea’s

Incheon Airport has won the Airport Council International’s

Service Quality award for the last two years.

Impact – Competition for the high end leisure traveller will be

intense and customer expectations will be of excellent service

throughout their stay. With most visits to the region lasting less

than five days, the potential for recovery from service lapses

will be limited and the chances of repeat visits will decline.

Issue – How can the Middle East define and sustain new

standards of service in the face of intense global competition?

“Global warming was "very likely" man-made and

would bring higher temperatures and a steady rise in

sea levels for centuries to come regardless of how much

the world slows or reduces its greenhouse gas emissions.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. February 2007

Information Communications Technology (ICT) -Between 2006 and 2012, the cost of processing power is

anticipated to fall sixteen-fold. Technology will increasingly be

leveraged to enhance the customer experience before, during

and after a trip. Integrated systems between airports, airlines

and hotels will enable travellers to provide their data once only

during a visit, eliminate check-in and enhance security.

Multilingual ‘digital concierges’ could provide a personalised

single customer interface across multiple providers throughout

the travel experiencexiii. Virtual reality and gaming technologies

will enable travellers to see and experience a travel destination

prior to purchase. Wearable technologies - Chip implants and

RFID will allow the tracking of people and luggage. Robotic

assistants are already being used in caring for the elderly in

Japan and could increasingly be used for everything from hotel

butlers to service staff on low cost carriers. Additionally, 3D

virtual technology has the capacity to provide a substitute for

travel for meetings and leisure, particularly if sustainability

concerns begin to curtail discretionary travel. The impact will be

most notable in the business sector.

Impact – ICT will transform the travel experience and shape

user expectations. Advanced technology solutions will be

considered an essential component of any high end offering.

Issue – Is the region developing a sufficiently strong ICT

education and service sector to meet future demand?

Aviation Efficiency and Performance - IATA claims new

aircraft are 70% more efficient than 40 years ago and 20%

better than a decade ago. The industry has set a goal of

increasing fuel efficiency by a further 50% by 2020.xiii Boeing’s

Dreamliner and the Airbus A380 will make high and low

volume non-stop long-haul flights feasible to any destination.

Supersonic technology could reduce flight times from Dubai

to London to 4 hours by 2015 and hypersonic flight could

reduce it to under 2 hours by 2020. Many manufacturers are

working on hypersonic propositions and Virgin Galactic believes

it would take ten years and cost at least $2Bn to develop.xxvi

Impact – The region’s combined buying power could be

leveraged to drive even higher standards of performance

and efficiency from suppliers. Supersonic and hypersonic

travel will create new ‘weekend break’ markets. Shorter term

developments with the Dreamliner and A380 may challenge

the viability of hub strategies.

Issue – Will aviation developments enhance or challenge

the region’s positioning as a gateway to Asia?

Security - On security matters, the region suffers from a

collective identity in a way that others don’t. For example,

the tensions in Myanmar, Thailand and the Philippines have

not led to discussions of ‘security issues in Asia’ or resulted in

visitors staying away from other countries in Asia.

Impact – The region will need concerted action to address the

risk of adverse travel advisories and deal with security anxieties

over terrorism, inter-state conflict and personal safety.

Issue – Should the region shift its focus towards markets which

take a more balanced view of threats in the region

Bus services couldlink Dubai, Oman,Bahrain, SaudiArabia and Jordan,Qatar, Kuwait,Egypt and Syria.

10%Global TourismIndustry is of world GDP

Approximately$1 trillion ofinfrastructureinvestment inpipeline in GCC.

LAUNCH OFAIR ARABIA-MIDDLE EAST’SFIRST LOW-COST CARRIER.

MIDDLE EAST FORECASTTO HAVE 6 OF THE 20COUNTRIES WITH THEHIGHEST PROJECTEDPASSENGER GROWTH

N U M B E R O F A I R L I N E V I S I TO R S

G R E W B Y 7 % D U R I N G 2 0 0 6 TO 2 6 M I L L I O N .

SAUDI BEGINS $5.3BNWATER BANK PROJECT

RETAJ AL RAYYAN HOTELOPENS IN DAFNA, QATAR

LAUNCH OF NAS AND SAMA BUDGETAIRLINES IN SAUDI ARABIA.

FIRST SPACE TOURISM

EASYHOTEL.COM TO OPEN FIRST BUDGET HOTELIN KUWAIT

2007

The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East - A Vision to 2020

Syria visitorsfrom The Gulfrise 12%

BAHRAIN

PASSENGER

TRAFFIC UP 21%

20M CHINESEOUTBOUND TOURISTS IN 2003, 31M IN 2005

KUWAIT AIRPORT TO HANDLE 1OM PASSENGERS

DUBAI ANNOUNCES$80BN+ AEROSPACEINVESTMENT PROGRAM

Completion ofworld’s largestbuilding Burj Dubai

Turkey announces plansto launch touristsubmarine by 2009

IPCC announces 90% chancehumans causing global warming

Qatar,The Pearl is a US$27 billion man-madeisland covering 985 acresof reclaimed land offshore.Open in 2007

Dubai tourists:6m in 2006

Lebanon2006touristlossesestimatedat $1Bn

Completion of HydropolisUndersea Hotel in Dubai 2007

Up to 80 new hotels onArabian peninsula by2008

Opening ofJordan‘s Ammanand AqabaConferenceCentresby 2009

Bahrain Egypt Iran Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Qatar Oman Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey United Arab Emirates Yemen

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80m RegionalTourists

Dubai Metroopens 2009

Q ATA R TO C O M P L E T E $ 1 3 0 B NI N F R A S T R U C T U R E I N V E S T M E N T

OPENING OF KUWAIT’S $3.3BnFAILAKA ISLAND RESORT

DUBAI TOURISM SECTOR COULD EMPLOY100,000BY 2010

Abu Dhabi’s Yas island tohost Formula one

40 ABU DHABI HOTELS ANDRESORTS TO BE BUILT

A B U D H A B I T O

I N T R O D U C E

G R E E N D I E S E L

RAS-AL-KHAIMAH TOURIST NUMBERS 100,000

COMPLETION OF FUJIARAHPARADISE AND RAS-AL-KHAIMAH’SAL MARJAN ISLAND DEVELOPMENTS

U P TO 3 2 0 M A D D I T I O N A L

PA S S E N G E R S I N M E B Y 2 0 1 2 .

$27BN BAWADI HOSPITALITYAND TOURISM DEVELOPMENT TO OPEN BY 2010

2010

of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East - A Vision to 2020

S y r i a t a r g e t s 7 M v i s i t o r s b y 2 0 1 0

COMPLETIONS OFTHE THREE PALMS

DEVELOPMENTS BY 2009

First phase of Bahrain International Airport expansion tocomplete by 2010 - raising capacity to 15M passengers

The $350 million GrandEgyptian Museum - the world’slargest - will open in 2010 andattract up to 5M visitors annually

Dubai governmentforecast 15 milliontourists/year

Completion by 2009of Gulf’s biggest Dam in Oman.

UAE will add55,000 more hotelrooms by 2012

Abu Dhabi’s Louvrebranch is expected toopen in 2012.

Turkey’s 2010 Vision to increase tourists from 14 to 30million, income from 12 to 30 billion (US$) and todouble employment to 3M people

Regional hotel bed nights are forecast to increase by 35%to 387 million by 2010

Qatar takes delivery of first A380 and opens 1st phase of New Doha International Airport

Completion of The World development inDubai 2010

Up to $3 Trillion GCC Infrastructureinvestment underway by 2010

The Iran government

plans to build 100

more hotels by 2010.

ar Oman Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey United Arab Emirates Yemen

OPENING OF NEW 20M PASSENGER ABU DHABI AIRPORT

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Virtual Travel

OPENING OF BAHRAIN-QATAREXPRESS LINK.

World economy to grow 80% by 2020.

200 SPA LOCATIONS IN DUBAI

ABU DHABI TARGETS 3M VISITORS BY 2015

DOHA INTERNATIONALAIRPORT COMPLETED

OMAN WAVE BEACHFRONT PROJECT COMPLETE

2015

m in the Middle East - A Vision to 2020

Yemenia Airwaysto start takingdelivery of 6new AirbusA350’s in 2012.

OPENING OF DUBAI JEBEL ALI ASWORLD’S LARGEST AIRPORT - 70M PASSENGERS BY 2016, EXPECTEDTO BE OPERATIONAL 2017 ANDULTIMATELY CAPABLE OF HANDLING 120M PASSENGERS

Larger than Monaco,Dubailand completed in 2020.Opening in 2010 it will employ300,000 people in the variousjoylands, servicing15 million visitors.

Egypt plans todouble numberof tourists by 2014.

RAS-AL-KHAIMAH 2.7BNWATERFRONT DEVELOPMENTCOMPLETE

AIRBUS PREDICTS ME PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO

GROW 7.1% ANNUALLY TO 2015 AND

THEN 5.2% UNTIL 2025.

Digital concierges could manage ourentire travel experience by 2015

Abu Dhabi,The Emirates PearlIsland Project US $27Bn manmade island. 29 hotels, 1 is 7*,completes 2018

Completion of the US$ 3.3 billionUmm Al Quwain Marina project by 2015

Egypt’s $16BnGamsha Baydevelopment tocomplete by 2017

‘Emirates Airline’ could own 10% of Longhaul

17

18

19

20

21

23

24

22

3Hypersonic Travel by 2020

Worldtourism market could

TRIPLEME PASSENGER FLEET

COULD RISE TO 1195

AIRCRAFT BY 2025.

ROBOTIC HOTEL STAFFWILL BE COMMON FLOODING

RESULTING

FROM CLIMATE

CHANGE COULD

DISPLACE 200M.

WATER AVAILABILITY INMIDDLE EAST AND NORTHAFRICA TO DROP BY HALF BY 2050.

MUTILINGUAL,CONVERSATIONALINTERFACES COULDREPLACE KEYBOARDS.

NUMBER OF TOURISTS EXPECTED TO REACH150 MILLION BY 2020

OMAN TARGETS OMANISATION RATE

(NO. OF LOCALS EMPLOYED) OF 50% BY

2020 IN TOURISM SECTOR

I R A N T A R G E T S2 5 M V I S I T O R S

2020

- A Vision to 2020Global POPULATIONTO REACH 8Bn

GLOBAL TOURISTARRIVALS TOREACH OVER1.56BN BY 2020.

100M CHINESEOUTBOUNDTOURISTS

By 2050 humans will need at least twoplanets' worth of natural resources to live asthey do now.

AIRCRAFT 50% MORE FUEL EFFICIENT

Dubai forecast to

double number of

tourists by 2022

Global Futuresand Foresight

By 2027 Middle East Airlines will buy 870 aircraft.

Dubai International Airport projectedto be handling up to 100Mpassengers per year by 2025

Saudi targets2M non-Haj andUmrah visitorsby 2020

Oman’s 2M tourist capacity $15Bn Blue City development to becompleted by 2026.

27

26

25

Travel and Tourism plans across theregion to 2020The Region’s forecasts suggest annual travel and tourism

revenues could increase 89% over the next ten years.

The Personal and Business Travel sectors are both set to

double in sizexxvii. At the same time, capital investment of over

$3 Trillion will fund a massive growth in infrastructure and

accommodation.i The regions airlines will buy 870 aircraft

by 2027xxviii. Travel and tourism is expected to create over

1.5m new jobs, equivalent to 60% of the total United Arab

Emirates’ population.

The World Tourism & Travel Council estimate World Travel &

Tourism Demand at US$6,477bn for 2006 and forecast growth to

US$12,119bn by 2016. Travel & Tourism in the Middle East is

estimated at US$148bn in 2006 and forecast to rise to

US$279Bn by 2016. Middle East Personal Travel & Tourism is

estimated to account for US$42bn or 9.4% of total personal

consumption in 2006 and to rise to US$92.7Bn - 10.2% of total

consumption by 2016. Business Travel is expected to rise from

US$13.7bn in 2006 to US$28.4bn by 2016.i

Bahrain plans to double tourism income over the next seven

years under an ambitious plan which aims to generate 10% of

GDP from the sector by 2014xxix. The strategy position’s Bahrain

as a ‘boutique’ destination in the Gulf, showcasing its unique

history, culture and heritage, focusing on family and business

tourism and hosting major events. Last year’s Formula One race

alone generated almost $400 million in direct income to the

kingdom’s businesses and traders, almost three per cent

of GDPxxx. The first phase of Bahrain International Airport’s

planned expansion ending in 2010 will raise capacity to 15

million passengersxxxi. Key developments include a US$34m

health resort for elderly people and the $1bn Amwaj Islands

due for completion by the end of 2007xxxii.

Egypt attracted 9.1m visitors in 2006xxxiii and is targeting 16M by

2014xxxiv. Egypt and Turkey have developed a project to jointly

host tourists from various countries and US$60 million has been

allocated to promote Egypt in other countries, with US$40 million

of this for advertisingxxxv. Key developments include the US$350

million Grand Egyptian Museum - the world’s largest with around

150,000 artefacts and expected to attract five million visitors

annually when it opens in 2010xxxvi. The US$16.3bn Gamsha Bay

project will be built over ten years to provide hotels, 15,000

residential units and villas, townhouses, an 18-hole golf course

and a marinaxxxvii.

Iran had the highest regional GDP from the T&T sector in 2005

with US$ 8,380Mxxxviii. It received 1.5 million visitors in 2005 and

has a target of 5M by 2010 and 25M by 2025iii. Government

plans to invest 50bn Rials ($5.4M) and the private sector

250,000bn Rials in tourismxxxix covering the development of 100

hotels including 7 star offerings. Qeshm International Airport is to

be extended to handle 1 million passengers by 2015xl. Iran plans

to use its cost advantages to build up health tourism from other

Arab statesxli.

Jordan’s National Tourism strategy is designed to increase

tourism receipts from JD570 million in 2003 to JD 1.3bn

(US$ 1.84bn) by 2010 - creating over 51,000 new jobsxlii.

The government will focus on several niche markets including

cultural tourism, MICE and adventure and religious travel. Key

developments include the 32,000 sq. m. Amman Exhibitions

Park. The US$1bn Ayla Oasis project on the Dead Sea will

include 5 upmarket hotels, a marina and golf coursexliii.

The airline market is being opened up to competition and Royal

Jordanian Airlines aims to start taking delivery of 8 new 787-8

Dreamliners in 2010xliv.

Kuwait’s 20-year tourism strategy includes the aim of driving

5% growth in employment in the hotel, travel and tourism

sectorxlv. Part of Kuwait’s 2020 tourism master plan is the

creation of a major tourist resort on Failaka Island, 20 km

off the coast of Kuwait City, in the Persian Gulf. Important

archaeological sites have been uncovered on the island,

including the Ikarus and Azuk temple sites, which will be

open to visitors. The island’s 24 miles of coastline will consist

of US$3.3bn of hotels, shops, residences, a golf course

and restaurantsxlvi.

Lebanon was anticipating record growth and over US$4bn in

tourism revenue and investment in 2006 but now estimates

losses at US$1bnxlvii. Visitor numbers in January 2007 were

down 39%xlviii. Actions being considered by government include

long term loans and tax relief for tourism operators and a fund

to help pay workers' wagesxlix.

Oman’s Vision 2020 includes delivering $1bn of tourism

revenues by 2020 (3-5% of GDP)l, a new marketing strategy,

mobilising the private and foreign sector to develop and promote

sustainable tourism and an Omanisation rate of 50% within the

industryli. Oman plans to grow markets such as adventure

tourism. As part of regional expansion, Oman Air will add two

Boeing 737-800s and start flights from Muscat to Damascus,

Lucknow and Jaipur in 2007lii. Key projects include ‘The Wave’ –

a US$1bn 6 km beachfront tourism and residential project to

be completed by 2012liii and the US$15-20bn ‘Blue City’

34 sq km development at Al Sawadi that will absorb and serve

up to two million tourists a yearliv. In September last year, Oman

made public its intention to build the Gulf's biggest damlv.

Qatar is investing US$15bn in hotels, museums and theme

parks and aims to triple tourist arrivals per year to 1.4 million by

2010 and increase the average stay from 1.5 to four days.

Qatar’s strategy is to excel in niche market tourism, so as to

make the sector sustainable in Qatar’s overall economylvi.

Hence it wants to become state-of-the-art in medical tourism and

position Doha as a luxury short-stay, leisure and business travel

destination. Qatar will have 40 new hotels by 2009lvii – including

the Hotel Khalifa, a palatial building designed to look like a

French chateau and a 360 room environmentally friendly hotel in

Dafna, North of Doha.

The US$2.5bn ‘Pearl’ man-made 985 acre island development

will include three deluxe hotelslviii.

Phase 1 of the New Doha International Airport will open in 2009

– with a capacity of 12M passengers at a cost of US$2.5bn.

By 2015 a $5.5bn extension will increase the airport’s capacity

to 50M passengerslix. Qatar Airways will be an A380 launch

customer – taking delivery of the first of its four A380s in 2009xliv

and will also buy 80 Airbus A350XWB wide bodied jets.vi

Saudi Arabia’s Supreme Commission for Tourism plans a tourist

development fund to provide loans for tourist projectslx. This will

focus on opportunities for the family tourist, cultural heritage,

environmental attractions, health, shopping and adventure

sports. The aim is to attract up to US$50bn in investment

including foreign fundslxi. Two private airlines Sama and National

Air Services (NAS) are entering the low-cost domestic airline

sector estimated to number at least 10 million people.

Saudi Arabia is investing US$4.8bn to build more terminals

at Jeddah’s King Abdul Aziz Airportlxiii.

Syria aims to double annual visitors to 7m by 2010 and

generate an income of US$5bn. Government will open offices

abroad to promote tourism and attract sector investment lxiv.

Investment levels are being raised to US$1bn for 2007lxv,

with multiple projects in progress including a US$200M resort

and a range of service quality improvementslxvi.

Turkey’s Vision 2010 aims to increase tourists from 14M

in 2003 to 30M million by 2010, raise tourist income from

US$11.9bn to US$30bn and double tourism employment from

1.5M to 3Mlxvii. The tourist ministry's new strategy “aims to

attract upscale tourists who have a higher potential for spending”

– with particular emphasis on US visitorslxviii. The Ministry of

Culture and Tourism has announced 150 planned restoration

and conservation-oriented projects to restore the "lifeblood"

of dozens of historical sites across Turkeylxix. Plans have been

announced to launch a US$1.3M tourist submarine within

2 years capable of carrying 50,000 passengers annuallylxx.

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United Arab Emirates

Abu Dhabi’s US $136bn investment in developing business

and tourism assets is intended to help increase visitor numbers

from 1.35M in 2006 to 3M by 2015.lxxi Tourism investment worth

US$11bn is expected in the next 10 years. The total value of

announced and on-going projects in Abu Dhabi is close to

Dh1 trillion ($272bn)lxxii. A US$230M project to transform

Abu Dhabi International Airport into a Middle Eastern hub and

handle 20 million passengers a year will complete by 2010.

Etihad is positioning itself as a top end airline and won the

World Travel Award for the world’s leading new airline.ii 40 private

sector hotels and resorts will be built by 2010lxxiii.

Government estimates that available rooms will rise to 25,000

by 2015 from 11,500 in 2006lxii. A focus on cultural tourism will

create four museums including a Guggenheim, Art Centre and

a Louvre branch due to open in 2012lxxiv.

Ajman has a 10 year investment program to boost the economy

and tourism and build roads, transport infrastructure and a

metro link to Dubailxxv. A private sector development partner

has been appointed and work has begun on new sewage

infrastructurelxxvi. After initiating US$7bn of investments in

2004 and 2005, the emirate plans four major property

projects including the US$2bn 'Ajman Marina'.lxvi

Dubai’s Strategic Plan 2015 aims to maintain double-digit GDP

growth, to deliver US$108bn and per capita GDP of US$44,000

by 2015lxxvii. By 2010, the aim is for 15M business and leisure

visitors to contribute 20% of GDPlxxviii. Developments in the

pipeline stretch out to 2020 and should deliver 80,000 hotel

rooms by 2010 with 100,000 people employed in the sectorlxxix.

Major developments underway include the Crescent Hydropolis

Resort - the world’s first luxury underwater hotel – due to open

in 2007lxxx and the US$1.8bn World project – a collection of

300 man-made islands modelled on the continents and due

for completion in 2010lxxxi.

The Burj Dubai opens in 2008 and will be the world’s tallest

building. The US$14bn Palms developments will complete in

2009 to create three man-made palm-shaped islands offering

residential and tourism developmentslxxxii. The Dubailand leisure

park will offer entertainment and hospitality on a site bigger than

Singaporelxxxiii. The US$27bn Bawadi hospitality and tourism

project will create a 10Km strip running through Dubailand

including construction of the world's largest hotellxxxiv.

Expansion plans for Dubai International Airport could see it

handle 70-100M passengers by 2025lxxxv. The new Jebel Ali

Airport is planned to handle up to 120M passengers and

to become the world’s largest airportlxxxvi. Emirates plans to

take delivery of up to 45 Airbus A380slxxxvii.

Fujairah is investing around Dh3bn over five years to grow

visitor numbers.lxiv Key developments include the Radisson

Al Aqah Beach Resort and the Fujairah Paradise residential

and tourism complex – both due to open in 2009lxxxviii.

Ras-al-Khaimah plans to attract leisure and industrial sector

investment of Dh50Bn (US$14bn) to quadruple tourists by 2010

to 100,000lxxxix. Key developments include the Dh2.9bn

Al Marjan Island - a hotel, marina and luxury villa complex due

to complete by 2011xc.

Sharjah has grown tourism from 400,000 to over 1M over

three yearsxci and is keen to drive it higher. A major contributor

is Air Arabia – the region’s first low cost carrier that flew 1.76M

passengers in 2006 to deliver a 222% increase in net profits to

US$27.5Mxcii. A US$62M expansion project is designed to

increase the capacity of Sharjah airport to 8M passengers a

year The US$18bn Al Nuojoom ‘Stars’ Islands project will

complete in five phases by 2010 to deliver hotel resorts,

a golf course, shopping complexes and residential areas.xciii

Umm Al Quwain’s development plan includes selected

tourism growth and building an airport to receive all airlines

operating in the regionxciv. The Imar Spa offers Overnight Spa

Escape packages aimed at Dubai’s female residentsxcv.

The US$3.3bn Umm Al Quwain Marina project will provide

over 8,000 homes, boutique hotels, retail and leisure facilities

in a marina-themed environmentxcvi.

Yemen attracts 350,000 tourists annuallyxcvii and more than 10

world-class hotels and resorts are being built to keep pace with

tourism demandxcviii. Yemenia Airways has announced plans to

buy six Airbus A350s with options on four more with deliveries

starting in 2012xcix.

Document References and Sources

i Beyond Oil: Reappraising the Gulf States – 31st January 2007

http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=8690

ii WTM 2006 Global Trends Report http://www.wtmlondon.com/images/100487/SHOWARTICLES/WTMReportfinal4.pdf

iii Accor Presentation – Approach to the Middle Easter TravelMarket – Presentation to Trends and Challenges in Middle EastTravel Conference - Feb 20th-21st 2007

iv Mideast air traffic to grow 7% - March 7th 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/112907.html

v Global Futures and Foresight analysis of publishedannouncements

vi Emerging Qatar 2005 – Oxford Business Grouphttp://www.atypon-link.com/OXF/doi/abs/10.5555/erqa.2005.2.Emerging_Qatar_2005.113?journalCode=erqa

vii New Aviation Developments -http://www.traveldailynews.com/makeof2.asp?subpage_id=1896

viii WHO Issues Alert Over Flu Pandemic Fears – January 21st 2005http://www.agobservatory.org/headlines.cfm?refID=44593

ix Factors Inside and Outside the Water Sector DriveMena’s Water Outcomes – World Bankhttp://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTMENA/Resources/01-Chap01-Scarcity.pdf

x Dancing with Giants - China, India, and the Global Economyhttp://lysander.worldbank.catchword.org/vl=3936701/cl=14/nw=1/rpsv/home.htm

xi Goldman Sachs Analysis http://www.gs.com

xii World Population to 2300 – UN Population Division – 2004http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf

xiii Future Traveller Tribes 2020 – Henley Centre Headlight Visionwith Amadeus -http://www.amadeus.com/amadeus/documents/corporate/TravellerTribes.pdf

xiv Six key states push world to 9bn people - The Guardian –March 1st 2001http://www.guardian.co.uk/population/Story/0,,444709,00.html

xv ANALYSIS-Asian economies feel the growing beat of tourismhttp://www.investsmartindia.com/IIL_NEW/Home/Reutersnewsdts.aspx?storyid=1163142795nSP135200&cat=others

xvi Growth Markets

www.corporate.visitlondon.com/ems/images/2emerging_preso.pdf

xvii Economics Review – South West of England RegionalDevelopment Agency - August 2005http://download.southwestrda.org.uk/file.asp?File=/other/quarterly-economic-reports/economics-review-third-quarter-august-2005.pdf

xviii Asia health tourism to reach $4bn - 1st April 2007http://www.tradearabia.com/news/newsdetails.asp?Sn=HEAL&artid=121180

xix Traveller Trends for 2007 TripAdvisorhttp://www.ntaonline.com/index.php?s=&url_channel_id=19&url_subchannel_id=&url_article_id=3276&change_well_id=2

xx Goldman Sachs analysis http://www.gs.com

xxi UNWTO: China set to surpass Spain by 2010 – January 30th 2007http://www.travelwirenews.com/cgi-script/csArticles/articles/000108/010836.htm

xxii Climate Change 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/

xxiii One Planet Living Campaign - World Wildlife Fundwww.wwf.org.uk/oneplanet

xxiv WorldWatch Institute www.worldwatch.org/

xxv WTTC – Middle East Travel and Tourism Climbing to NewHeights www.wttc.org/2006TSA/pdf/World.pdf

xxvi Hypersonic Rocket Would Take You from London to New York in Less Than Two Hourshttp://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,253620,00.html

xxvii WTTC – Middle East Travel and Tourism Climbing to New Heights www.wttc.org/2006TSA/pdf/World.pdf

xxviii United Kingdom: Executive Report – The Magazine For TheTourism, Hospitality and Leisure Industry - Part Two – Deloitte –January 11th 2007http://www.mondaq.com/article.asp?articleid=45510

xxix Ambitious plan - Bahrain – March 6th 2007http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093145377

xxx Bahrain seeks ‘boutique’ tourism positioning – November 2006http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?IssueID=268&Section=786&Article=6017

xxxi Travel and Tourism in Bahrain – December 2006http://www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Bahrain

xxxii $34m health resort for elderly – December 23rd 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/106488.html

xxxiii TOURISM: The new age of big, integrated resorts - December11 2006http://www.ft.com/cms/s/53d905a0-839a-11db-9e95-0000779e2340,dwp_uuid=05212dda-8542-11db-b12c-0000779e2340.html

xxxiv More Arabs, Americans visiting Egypt – September 2006http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?IssueID=266&Section=762&Article=5827

xxxv Egypt hoping to cooperate with Turkey in tourism – February 2nd 2007http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=103350

xxxvi Egypt puts culture on the agenda – September 2006http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?IssueID=266&Section=762&Article=5829

xxxvii Damac $16.3bn Red Sea resort – December 6th 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/104441.html

xxxviii Bahrain Airport Statistics - November 2006http://www.bahrainairport.com/air_stati/air_stati_2006_nov.htm

xxxix World Tourism Organization Supports Iran Tourism Industry –February 7th 2007http://eng.chtn.ir/newsShow.aspx?ID=646

xl Airport Development News – Momberger Airport Informationwww.airports.org/aci/aci/file/ADN%20-%20Momberger/ACI-ADN%20Dec%202005.pdf

xli Health Ministry Taking Health Tourism Seriously – 20th ofFebruary 2007http://eng.chtn.ir/newsShow.aspx?ID=689

xlii http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/07/02/13/10103864.html,http://www.tourism.jo/inside/Strategy.asp

xliii Jordan Ministry of Tourism http://www.visitjordan.com

xliv Jordanian close to Dreamliner deal – March 1st 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/112238.html

xlv Jordan Ministry of Tourism http://www.visitjordan.com

xlvi Government looks to step up sector – November 9th 2006www.unitedworld-usa.com/reports/kuwait2006/tourism.asp

xlvii Lebanese bridge repaired – March 3rd 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/112293.html

xlviii Lebanon's tourism concerns – March 21st 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/114251.html

xlix Lebanon's tourism to get aid – Mach 8th 2007 -http://www.ameinfo.com/112990.html

l Oman’s action plan – May 2006http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=5503&Section=715&IssueID=262

li Oman Opportunities – Meepashttp://www.meepas.com/Omanopportunities.htm

lii Oman Air, three new routes in 2007 – December 12 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/105070.htm

liii New Doha Airport focus of Key Presentation at Airport Build andSupply Exhibition & Conference in New Delhi – February 14 2005www.asiatraveltips.com/news05/142-Airport.shtml

liv Qatar Airways to buy 80 A350s – March 15 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/113690.html

lv Forced to Look Beyond Desalination Plants – March 27th 2007http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=37013

lvi Tourism sector set to generate $148bn in Middle East this year- 10/30/2006http://www.ifpqatar.com/News_show_news.asp?id=2691

lvii Is Qatar the Next Dubai? – June 4th 2006http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/04/travel/04qatar.html?ex=1156996800&en=f1fef39c4eb9dd3d&ei=5070

lviii QATAR: Major Developmentshttp://www.traveldailynews.com/makeof2.asp?subpage_id=1897

lix Premium terminal leads Doha’s new services – February 2007http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=6230&Section=820&IssueID=271

lx Consumer Lifestyles – Saudi Arabia. The Economist IntelligenceUnit, 22.1, Para 1 www.eiu.com

lxi Consumer Lifestyles – Saudi Arabia. The Economist IntelligenceUnit, 22.1, Para 1 www.eiu.com

lxii Saudia Propels a New Era in Civil Aviation – December 2006http://www.arabnews.com/?page=15&section=0&article=89622&d=17&m=2&y=2007

lxiii $4.8bn investment for Jeddah airport – February 2007http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?IssueID=271&Section=820&Article=6235

lxiv Syria spends up on tourism – October 5th 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/98190.html

lxv ‘We played a crucial role’ – October 2006http://ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=5927&Section=774&IssueID=267

lxvi Qatar to develop Syria tourism complex - February 19, 2007http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20070219-011730-7033r

lxvii 2010 Tourism Vision of Turkey - Ministry of Tourism and Culturehttp://www.kulturturizm.gov.tr/genel/galeri/vizyon-eng/index.htm

lxviii Turkey lassos US religious and health tourists - Thursday, February 22, 2007http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=66681

lxix Culture and Tourism Ministry to pour ‘lifeblood’ back intoTurkey’s historical – February 22nd 2007 siteshttp://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=103467&bolum=110

lxx Tourism Development Regions – Ministry of Tourism and Culturehttp://www.kultur.gov.tr/genel/text/tr/YIGM/turizmkentleri/eng/index.htm

lxxi Abu Dhabi Ministry of Tourismwww.uae.gov.ae/Government/tourism.htm

lxxii Abu Dhabi projects worth close to Dh1tr – February 3rd 2007http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/07/02/13/10103864.html

lxxiii UAE TOURISM ATTRACTS WORLD TRAVELLERS - 8 March – 2006http://www.khaleejtimes.com/TravelInsideNew.asp?xfile=data/travel/2006/March/travel_March5.xml&section=travel&col=

lxxiv Abu Dhabi vies for spot on tourism map - January 30, 2007http://timesofoman.com/inner_cat.asp?cat=4&detail=2759&rand=kqfnhhZXarImP15jHCjR62dETv

lxxv Ajman gets a further $13 billion for investment - 6 February 2007 http://www.mideast-construction.com/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1527&Itemid=55

lxxvi The Ruler Of Ajman, His Highness Sheikh Humaid Bin RashidAl Nuaimi, Undertakes Groundbreaking To Start Work On Dhs 515 Million Ajman Sewerage Project – 25 February 2003www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20030226071135

lxxvii Dubai Strategic Plan - 2015 unveiled – February 4th 2007http://www.menareport.com/en/business,Economy_and_Trade/209211

lxxviii Doing Business in the DIFChttp://www.difc.ae/operating/index.html

lxxix Dubai Hotel Workforce to Triple by 2010http://business.maktoob.com/news_briefs_inside.asp?id=20060907134116&h=1

lxxx Hydropolis Underwater Hotel, Dubai, United Arab Emirates –September 2005http://www.designbuild-network.com/projects/Hydropolis/

lxxxi Property Developments: Dubai: The World Islandshttp://realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/dubai/world_islands.php

lxxxii Property Developments: Dubai: Burj Dubai (Downtown Dubai)http://realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/dubai/burj_dubai.php

lxxxiii Transcity: Dubai's Urbanism by numbershttp://transcity.eu/main/article/5/dubais-urbanism-by-numbers

lxxxiv Property Developments: Dubai: Dubailandhttp://realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/dubai/dubailand.php

lxxxv Dubai investing $81bn in aviation projects – October 2006http://ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=5922&Section=773&IssueID=267

lxxxvi Dubai - Overview:http://www.usatoday.com/marketplace/ibi/dubai.htm

lxxxvii Airbus customers could find A380 delays costly – July 2006www.iht.com/articles/2006/06/16/business/order.php

lxxxviii Dh2b Fujairah resort lures tourists – 5th March 2006http://archive.gulfnews.com/indepth/atm/more_stories/10037279.html

lxxxix Ras Al Khaimah seeks $13bn investment 16 February 2007http://www.arabianbusiness.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8102:ras-al-khaimah-seeks-13bn-investment&Itemid=78

xc Project watch – February 2007http://ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=6246&Section=822&IssueID=271

xci www.sharjah-welcome.com/html/more_news.php?id=2891

xcii The Emirate of Sharjah moves towards the 5th GCC RoadShow – May 14th 2006http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20070214102502/SecCountries/pagUAE/chnUAE%20Analysis/obj13F83D09-8988-11D5-867E00D0B74A0D7C/

xciii Sharjah’s got more than you know- October 2006http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=5921&Section=773&IssueID=267

xciv Development Plan for UAQ Approved – February 12 2007http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20070212044309

xcv Ladies-only spa at Umm Al Quwain - 5 March 2007http://www.arabianbusiness.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8896

xcvi PROJECT-Umm Al Quwain: UMM AL QUWAIN MARINA –December 2006http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?p=11705960

xcvii Yemeni government criticized for not promoting tourism - 31st January 2007http://yementimes.com/article.shtml?i=1020&p=local&a=3

xcviii Business in brief – March 1st 2007http://yementimes.com/article.shtml?i=1029&p=business&a=2

xcix Yemenia buys six A350s – March 13 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/80185.html

Chart and Timeline References and Sources

Charts

Figure 1 WTTC Tourism Satellite Accounting Regional Reports -http://www.wttc.travel/eng/WTTC_Research/Tourism_Satellite_Accounting/TSA_Regional_Reports/index.php

Government Figures - Sourced from Tourist Ministry Goals andpress releases

Figure 2GFF derived figuresWTTC Tourism Satellite Accounting Regional Reports -http://www.wttc.travel/eng/WTTC_Research/Tourism_Satellite_Accounting/TSA_Regional_Reports/index.php

Figure 3 WTTC Tourism Satellite Accounting Regional Reports -http://www.wttc.travel/eng/WTTC_Research/Tourism_Satellite_Accounting/TSA_Regional_Reports/index.php

Timeline

1) Launch of Air-Arabia – Middle East’s first low-cost carrierWTM 2006 Global Trends Report -http://www.wtmlondon.com/images/100487/SHOWARTICLES/WTMReportfinal4.pdf

2) Approximately $1 trillion of infrastructure in pipeline in GCCBeyond Oil: Reappraising the Gulf States – 31st January 2007http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=8690

3) Bahrain passenger traffic up 21% Bahrain Airport Statistics - November 2006http://www.bahrainairport.com/air_stati/air_stati_2006_nov.htm

4) Middle East forecast to have 6 of the 20 countries with thehighest projected passenger growth Budget carriers set for growth – March 13th 2007http://www.tradearabia.com/news/newsdetails.asp?Sn=TTN&artid=120367

5) Lebanon 2006 tourist losses estimated at $1bn Lebanese bridge repaired– March 3rd 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/112293.htm

6) Global tourism industry is 10% of world GDPGlobal Travel and Tourism Exceeded $6 trillion in 2005 – March 6th 2007http://www.wttc.org/eng/News_and_Events/Press/Press_Releases_2006/Global_travel_exceeded_USD_6_trillion_in_2005/index.php

7) Kuwait airport to handle 10m passengers Travel and Tourism in Kuwait– December 2006http://www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Kuwait

8) Bus services could link Dubai, Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabiaand Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt and SyriaTourism earns Dh97b revenue – March 8 2007http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Tourism_and_Travel/10109541.html

9) Launch of NAS and SAMA budget airlines in Saudi ArabiaNew Routes To Profit?- Dec 10 2006http://www.time.com/time/insidebiz/article/0,9171,1568461,00.html

10) Dubai tourists 6m in 2006WTTC – Middle East Travel and Tourism Climbing to New Heightswww.wttc.org/2006TSA/pdf/World.pdf

11) Number of airline visitors grew by 7% during 2006to 26 millionWTM 2006 Global Trends Report -http://www.wtmlondon.com/images/100487/SHOWARTICLES/WTMReportfinal4.pdf

12) 20 million Chinese outbound tourists in 2003,31 million in 2005The prospects for China as a source market - November 07, 2006http://www.traveldailynews.com/new.asp?newid=33550&subcategory_id=95

13) Turkey announces plans to launch tourist submarine by 2009Tourism Development Regions - Ministry of Culture and Tourism http://www.kultur.gov.tr/genel/text/tr/YIGM/turizmkentleri/eng/index.htm

14) Completion of Hydropolis underwater hotel in Dubai in 2007Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing http://www.dubaitourism.ae/

15) Dubai announces $80 billion+ aerospace investment programDubai to invest over $80 billion in airport infrastructure – October 2006http://www.sbac.co.uk/community/cms/content/preview/nl.asp?p=2481&pp=37&txtSearchPhrase

16) Syria visitors from the gulf rise 12%More GCC tourists to Syria – April 29 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/84353.html

17) Qatar, The Pearl is a US $27 billion man-made islandcovering 985 acres of reclaimed land offshore. Open in 2007.Major Developments QATARhttp://www.traveldailynews.com/makeof2.asp?subpage_id=1897

18) Retaj Al Rayyan Hotel opens in Dafna, QatarEco-friendly hotel to open in Qatar – November 17 2006http://www.dubaiinside.com/detailnews.asp?refno=1031

19) IPCC announces 90% chance humans causing global warmingClimate Change 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/

20) First space tourismHypersonic Rocket Would Take You From London to New York inLess Than Two Hours - February 21, 2007http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,253620,00.html

21) Completion of world’s largest building Burj DubaiDubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing http://www.dubaitourism.ae/

22) Saudi begins $ 3.5bn water bank projectMarket of the Month: Saudi Arabia – March 2007http://www.export.gov/articles/Saudi_MoM.asp

23) Easyhotel.com to open to open first budget hotel in KuwaitTravel And Tourism in Kuwait – December 2006http://www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Kuwait

24) Up to 80 new hotels on Arabian peninsula by 2008Red Hot Middle East!http://www.hospitalitynet.org/indepth/154000357/112000417.search?query=what+percentage+of+middle+east+tourism+is+business+related%3f

25) Opening of Jordan’s Amman and Aqaba Conference Centresby 2009Reaching east, reaching west – May 2006http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=5499&Section=714&IssueID=262

26) Completion by 2009 of Gulf’s biggest dam in OmanConstruction of Gulf’s biggest dam – 30 September 2006http://www.omanaccess.com/greatdeals/admin_great_deals.asp?category=General

27) Dubai metro opens in 2009Two more bridges by 2009 to ease Dubai traffic – June 6th 2006http://archive.gulfnews.com/indepth/trafficwatch/New_roads/10045293.html

28) Abu Dhabi to introduce green dieselAbu Dhabi progresses toward introduction of green diesel as fuel– 24th January 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/108612.html

29) First phase of Bahrain International Airport expansioncomplete by 2010 – raising capacity to 15m passengersTravel and Tourism in Bahrain – December 2006http://www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Bahrain

30) Regional hotel bed nights are forecast to increase by 35% to387 million by 2010WTM 2006 Global Trends Report -http://www.wtmlondon.com/images/100487/SHOWARTICLES/WTMReportfinal4.pdf

31) Opening of Kuwait’s $3.3bn Failaka island resortTravel and Tourism in Kuwait - December 2006 http://www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Kuwait

32) Dubai government forecast 15 million tourists/yearDubai WTM 2006 – November 2006www.antor.com/Dubai/Dubai_November_2006.pdf

33) Completion of the three Palms developments by 2009Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketinghttp://www.dubaitourism.ae/

34) Qatar takes delivery of first A380 and opens 1st phase ofNew Doha International AirportNew Aviation Developments http://www.traveldailynews.com/makeof2.asp?subpage_id=1896

35) The $350 million Grand Egyptian Museum – the world’slargest – will open in 2010 and attract up to 5m visitors annuallyEgypt puts culture on the agenda – September 2006http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?IssueID=266&Section=762&Article=5829

36) Dubai tourism sector could employ 100,000 by 2010Dubai Hotel Workforce to Triple by 2010http://business.maktoob.com/news_briefs_inside.asp?id=20060907134116&h=1

37) Turkey’s 2010 vision to increase tourists from 14 to 30million, income from 2 to 30 billion (US$) and to doubleemployment to 3m people.2010 Tourism Vision of Turkey - Ministry of Tourism and Culturehttp://www.kulturturizm.gov.tr/genel/galeri/vizyon-eng/index.htm

38) Opening of new 20m passenger Abu Dhabi airportExpansion plans of Abu Dhabi Airport to be revealed in Mid Eastevent - March 15, 2007http://www.traveldailynews.com/new.asp?newid=36080&subcategory_id=53

39) Completion of The World development in Dubai 2010Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing -http://www.dubaitourism.ae/

40) 40 Abu Dhabi hotels and resorts to be builtUAE TOURISM ATTRACTS WORLD TRAVELLERS - 8 March 2006http://www.khaleejtimes.com/TravelInsideNew.asp?xfile=data/travel/2006/March/travel_March5.xml&section=travel&col=

41) Completion of Fujairah Paradise and Ras-al-Khaimah’s alMarjan island developmentsRealty is Red Hot – June 2006 http://www.zawya.com/marketing.cfm?zp&p=/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20060608062129

42) Ras-al-Khaimah tourist numbers 100,000RAK to attract 100,000 tourists by 2010- 15th February 2007http://uaeinteract.com/news/default.asp?cntDisplay=10&ID=20

43) Syria targets 7m visitors by 2010Syria spends up on tourism – October 5th 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/98190.html

44) Qatar to complete $130 billion infrastructure investmentMinister highlights $130 billion Qatar projects at MEEDconference in Doha - March 2nd 2006

45) $27bn Bawadi Hospitality and Tourism development to open by 2010His Highness Sheikh Mohammed launches leading hospitality investment project – May 1st 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/84671.html

46) Up to $3 trillion GCC infrastructure investment underway by 2010Beyond Oil: Reappraising the Gulf States http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=8690

47) Up to 320 million additional passengers in ME by 2010WTM 2006 Global Trends Report -http://www.wtmlondon.com/images/100487/SHOWARTICLES/WTMReportfinal4.pdf

48) Abu Dhabi’s Louvre branch is expected to be opening 2012Abu Dhabi's Louvre finally approved, ready by 2012http://www.demaniore.it/opencms/opencms/eng_demanioRe/homePageSezione/attualita/in-evidenza/home/DM08-1173090785085.html?breadCrumb=Detail

49) The Iran government plans to build 100 more hotels by 2010Iran aims for more tourists – February 4th 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/109612.html

50) Abu Dhabi’s Yas Island to host Formula OneAbu Dhabi to host Formula One Grand Prix in 2009 – March 2nd 2007http://www.inforally.sibiul.ro/formula1_news_58.html

51) UAE will add 55,000 more hotel rooms by 2012Accor Presentation – Approach to the Middle Easter Travel Market

52) Completion of the US$ 3.3 billion Umm Al Quwain Marina project by 2015Developments: Umm Al Quwain: Umm Al Quwain Marinahttp://realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/umm_al_quwain/umm_al_quwain_marina.php

53) Egypt plans to double number of tourists by 2014Egyptian Tourist Authority launches new website - March 29, 2006http://www.hotelmarketing.com/index.php/content/article/060329_egyptian_tourist_authority_launches_new_website/

54) Emirates Airline could own 10% of long haulThe Chinese are coming... November 7 2006http://travel.iafrica.com/bulletinboard/389306.htm

55) Yemenia Airways to start taking delivery of 6 new Airbus A350’s in 2012Yemenia buys six A350s – March 13 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/80185.html

56) Oman Wave beachfront project completeFairmont Hotels to set up $2b project in Oman – 14th March 2007http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093146273

57) Doha International Airport completedPremium terminal leads Doha’s new services – February 2007http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=6230&Section=820&IssueID=271

58) Opening of Dubai Jebel Ali as worlds largest airport – 70 m passengers by 2016 – expected to be operational 2017and ultimately capable of handling 120m passengersDubai - Overviewhttp://www.usatoday.com/marketplace/ibi/dubai.htm

59) Digital concierges could manage our entire travel experience by 2015Future Traveler Tribes 2020 – Henley Centre Headlight Vision with Amadeus -http://www.amadeus.com/amadeus/documents/corporate/TravellerTribes.pdf

60) World economy to grow 80% by 2020Foresight 2020 - Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)www.eiu.com/site_info.asp?info_name=eiu_Cisco_Foresight_2020

61) Abu Dhabi, The Emirate Pearl Island Project US $ 27bnman-made island. 29 hotels, 1 is 7*, completes 2018United Kingdom: "Foresight 2020" Economist Intelligence Unit(EIU)Executive Report – The Magazine For The Tourism, Hospitalityand Leisure Industry - Part Two – Deloitte – 11th January 2007http://www.mondaq.com/article.asp?articleid=45510

62) Opening of Bahrain-Qatar express linkBahrain/Qatar: Gulf express train on track - 04 November 2006www.traintraveling.com/africa_meast/africa_meast_intercity.shtml

63) Egypt’s $16 billion Gamsha Bay development to complete by 2017Gamsha Bay - Egypt property investment December 5th 2006http://www.gamshabay.info/

64) 200 Spa locations in Dubai Wellness & Spas Trade Fair to promote slimming & healthhttp://www.ameinfo.com/113828.html

65) Virtual travelGFF Forecast

66) Abu Dhabi targets 3m visitors by 2015DIMARCO TO DEFEND ABU DHABI GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP TITLE –13th September 2006http://www.imgworld.com/press_room/fullstory.sps?iType=13708&iNewsid=374570&iCategoryID=12543

67) Ras-al-Khaimah $2.7bn waterfront development completeProperty Developments: Ras Al Khaimah: Mina Al Arabhttp://realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/ras_al_khaimah/mina_al_arab.php

68) Airbus predicts ME passenger traffic to grow 7.1% annually to2015 and then 5.2% until 2025 Mideast air traffic to grow 7% 69) March 7th 2007 http://www.ameinfo.com/112907.html

70) Larger than Monaco, Dubailand completed in 2020. Opening in 2010 it will employ 300,000 people in the variousjoylands servicing 15 million visitorsMiddle East’s answer to Disneyland http://www.42international.com/dubai.htm

71) Global population to reach 8bnSix key states push world to 9bn people - The Guardian – March 1st 2001http://www.guardian.co.uk/population/Story/0,,444709,00.html

72) Number of tourists expected to reach 150 million by 2020WTO’s Tourism 2020www.world-tourism.org/market_research/facts/market_trends.htm

73) By 2020 Middle East airlines will buy 870 aircraftUnited Kingdom: Executive Report – The Magazine For TheTourism, Hospitality and Leisure Industry - Part Two – Deloitte –January 11th 2007http://www.mondaq.com/article.asp?articleid=45510

74) Dubai International Airport projected to be handling up to100m passengers per year by 2025New Aviation Developments -http://www.traveldailynews.com/makeof2.asp?subpage_id=1896

75) Oman targets Omanisation rate (no. of locals employed) of50% by 2020 in tourism sectorOman Opportunities - Meepashttp://www.meepas.com/Omanopportunities.htm

76) Aircraft 50% more fuel efficientFuel Efficiencyhttp://www.iata.org/whatwedo/environment/fuel_efficiency.htm

77) Global tourist arrivals to reach over 1.56 bn by 2020WTO Background Paper on climate Change and Tourismwww.world-tourism.org/sustainable/climate/pres/graham-todd.pdf

78) Robotic hotel staff will be commonGFF Forecast

79) By 2050 humans will need at least two planets’ worth ofnatural resources to live as they do now.One Planet Living Campaign - World Wildlife Fundwww.wwf.org.uk/oneplanet

80) Dubai forecast to double number of tourists by 2022GFF estimate based on published announcements

81) Hypersonic travel by 2020Tourism Futures Looking Out to 2020 – Travel IndustryAssociation of Americawww.latour.lsu.edu/presentations/Dr.Cook.pdf

82) Saudi targets 2m non-Haj and Umrah visitors by 2020Travel and Tourism - Saudi Arabia, December 2006, Euromonitorwww.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Saudi_Arabia

83) 100m outbound Chinese touristsGrowth Marketswww.corporate.visitlondon.com/ems/images/2emerging_preso.pdf

84) ME passenger fleet could rise to 1195 aircraft by 2025Budget blitzhttp://www.trendsmagazine.net/business.php

85) Iran targets 25m visitorsAccor Presentation – Approach to the Middle Easter Travel Market– Presentation to Trends and Challenges in Middle East TravelConference - Feb 20th-21st 2007

86) Flooding resulting from climate change could displace 200mClimate change fight 'can't wait' – 31st October 2006http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6096084.stm

87) World tourism market could triplewww.tourism.jo/inside/Strategy.asp

88) Multilingual, conversational interfaces couldreplace keyboardsFuture Traveler Tribes 2020 – Henley Centre Headlight Vision with Amadeus -http://www.amadeus.com/amadeus/documents/corporate/TravellerTribes.pdf

89) Water availability in Middle East and North Africa todrop by half by 2050Factors Inside and Outside the Water Sector Drive Mena’s WaterOutcomes – World Bankhttp://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTMENA/Resources/01-Chap01-Scarcity.pdf

90) Oman’s 2m tourist capacity $15bn Blue City development tobe complete by 2026.Diversification Drive – The Blue Cityhttp://www.apexstuff.com/bt/200512/cs.asp

Timeline Image References

1. http://www.airarabia.com/

2. http://www.photos.com

3. http://www.photos.com

4. www.ksbitv.com/ hotlinks/3318381.html

5. www.skyscrapercity.com/ showthread.php?t=111551

6. http://www.flynas.com/eng/ourplanes.html

7. http://www.flysama.com/Sama/English/Top/AboutUs/

MediaGallery/Photos/

8. http://www.realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com

9. http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Event_News/Cityscape/more

7.html

10. http://archive.gulfnews.com/images/05/12/28/01_jan_dubai_

metro_4.jpg

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abu_dhabi/al_reem_island.php

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Sanierung-Herrscherfamilie-Dubai-Scheich-Mohammed-bin-

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/2006/2/3.aspx

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27.http://www.enterprise-ireland.com

The future of Travel and Tourism in theMiddle East - A vision to 2020An Arabian Travel Market and Global Futuresand Foresight study

This ground breaking project for the Middle East will provide atruly international perspective on how travel and tourism in theregion could develop and what the implications might be. The study is using a combination of a global survey of industryprofessionals and travellers, in-depth desk research and expertinterviews to provide critical insights on the future of travel in the Middle East. The study is designed to help the region take aconsolidated view on the development of travel and tourism inthe region and the implications and challenges for building andsustaining the industry. The study will explore what the drivers of change are, identify potential ‘wild card’ events that couldblow growth off-course or accelerate it and examine the overalloutlook in five, ten and twenty years’ time.

The study will factor in the forecasts, perspectives and opinionsof key industry bodies and commentators. It will examinepotential discontinuous drivers such as political, economic,social, demographic, environmental, technological, legislative andconsumer behavioural changes which could influence the plansof this key sector for the Middle East. There will be three reportsproduced through this study. This short ‘Pathfinder’ report, a fullreport later in 2007 and a ‘Response from the Region’ which will be launched at ATM 2008.

How to be involvedThe full report will be distributed to all 20,000+ attendees at theWorld Travel Market in London in November 2007 and distributedelectronically to over 150,000 travel industry professionalsworldwide – providing an excellent opportunity for brand exposureto any potential sponsors. Being associated with this leadingwork will help reinforce any participant’s position as a leading,insightful and strategic player in the Travel and Tourism Industryin the Middle East. Please contact the authors to discuss theopportunities to become involved in this ground breaking seriesof reports and to understand the benefits to you.

About Arabian Travel Market‘Arabian Travel Market’ (ATM) has become the first PlatinumSponsor of this study series on behalf of Reed Travel Exhibitionsand welcomes other leading organisations to join them in thisventure. ATM is the industry's leading travel and tourismexhibition dedicated to unlocking the business potential withinthe Middle East and Pan Arab region. Uniting key market playersfrom six continents, Arabian Travel Market is four days ofintensive meetings, seminars, press conferences and socialnetworking opportunities.

About Global Futures and Foresight The aim of Global Futures and Foresight (GFF) is to harness theviews of global experts to provide foresight to organizations sothat they can be more successful and less exposed to risk bybetter understanding the opportunities and threats the futuremay bring. GFF is a strategic futures think tank that draws on aglobal network of business, academic and future thinkers fromacross the world committed to helping business and governmentbetter prepare for the future. It does this through collaborativeprojects and through undertaking its own research, gatheringthought leaders’ views of the future and forming composite ideasof what our future could look like. It helps business andgovernment factor these views into their strategic thinking and by so doing become better prepared for the future.

About the Authors

David Smith is joint head of GFF and an experiencedbusinessman, authority on futures issues and internationalspeaker. In his 30 year business career he has held seniormanagement positions in a number of global organizations andhas been involved in public sector, commercial and financialmarkets. He has advised the UK, Australian, South African andEuropean Union governments on strategic research investmentdecisions. Since founding GFF five years ago he has worked withmany government, commercial and academic organisationsincluding the Association of Event Organisers, where he gave thekeynote address at their 2006 conference. He leads the GFFPulse annual research project which highlights issues likely toimpact business in the next five years.

Rohit Talwar is joint head of GFF and an internationally renowned futures researcher and award winning speaker. He has conducted major futures studies, developed researchmethodologies and undertaken consulting assignments forclients in the private sector and government and worked withglobal clients in over 25 countries. Rohit is a specialist on thefuture of travel and tourism and the long term development ofAsia and the Middle East. . He has just completed a major studyon the Future of China – the Path to 2020.Rohit is a regular speaker in Dubai on global trends. He chairedand delivered a keynote speech at both the recent Dubai MiddleEast Travel Trends conference and the World CEO Forum inFebruary 2006. He has delivered keynote presentations on Vision 2020 for Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Investmentand the Dubai Human Resources Forum.

To contact Global Futures and Foresight Tel: +44 1372 210941rohit.talwar@thegff.com david.smith@thegff.com www.thegff.com

www.arabiantravelmarket.com/thegff

Presented at Arabian Travel Market 2007

All data sources and photographs and artwork images used are acknowledged in a fully referencedextended version of this document which is available online at www.thegff.com

Global Futuresand Foresight