The future of the automotive industry - event.buhlergroup.com · We have developed three scenarios of BEV/PHEV market forecast till 2025 – We expect sales to vary from 3,382k to

Speech

Suzhou, April 12, 2018

China E-Mobility

2 China E-Mobility Quota_20180417.pptx

The speaker of Today

Speaker Company Alex Xu

Global Partner, Vice President of Roland Berger Great China

> More than 16 years of management consulting experience

> Independent director of A-share listed manufacturing company

> Helped China's major energy group develop European photovoltaic expansion plan

> Helped leading investment agencies to conduct systematic research and benchmarking of China automotive industry

> Helped China's leading low-carbon business district formulate its energy development strategy

> …

Founded in 1967 in Germany by Roland Berger

50 offices in 36 countries, with around 2,400 employees

Nearly 220 RB Partners currently serving

~1,000 international clients

14 offices in Asian Pacific

Source: Roland Berger


EV(or electrification) is most important trend in the automotive industry – which we are discussing today



CO2 legislation keeps the push on xEV development

CO2 legislation: Light vehicle GHG emissions/fuel consumption

Source: Press research, ICCT, Roland Berger

Note: GHG = greenhouse gases

Indicator rating: ∆ to base-line 2025 15% less strict than baseline 10% less strict than baseline 5% less strict than baseline Baseline 5% stricter than baseline 10% stricter than baseline

Regulation – CO2 legislation

Methodology

> Baseline for indicator rating is CO2-legislation in 2025

– In case 2025 CO2 targets remain as planned, the score is set at 3 points

– In case legislation in the region decided on changing CO2 targets, today's scoring is adjusted by 1 point for each 5% change (up- and downwards)

GHG emissions/fuel consumption (CO2)

Europe USA Japan China

> CO2 emissions target1) > Fuel efficiency targets3) > CAFC4) (phase IV)

> Add. potential fleet xEV target share

> CAFE2) > Additional ZEV regulation

CARB

95

127

-25%

2025

68-78

tbd

2021 2013

115121

-1%

2025

n.a.

2020 2012

95117

171

-32%

2025 2020 2013

97

125

159

-21%

2025 2020 2013

1) Weight-based corporate average 2) Footprint-based corporate average; converted to NEDC

3) Weight-class based corporate average; showing JC08 4) Weight-class based per vehicle and corporate average


Therefore, strong growth is expected across all regions in xEV sales by 2025

xEV sales forecast for major xEV markets, 2016-2025

> China is expected to remain

the leader in xEV sales

globally by 2025 as well

> Strong growth is expected in

all geographies for xEVs,

aim for sustainable

transportation and reducing

the emissions would be the

key push in all geographies

for xEVs

> Declining costs of Li-ion

batteries would increase the

attractiveness of xEV for

customers

> However, development of

charging infrastructure would

be necessary to sustain

demand in the market

Comments China ['000 units] Europe ['000 units]

+36%

BEV

PHEV

HEV

2025

371

22%

5,447

69%

2016

13%

9% 65% 21%

386

PHEV

BEV

3%

23% 56%

21%

HEV

37%

2016

+32%

2025

4,793

61%

CAGR

2016-25

40.2%

35.3%

33.7%

CAGR

2016-25

6.6%

39.5%

33.6%

USA ['000 units] Japan ['000 units]

+27% BEV

4,571

78%

2025

HEV

PHEV 13%

8%

70% 16% 14%

2016

517

CAGR

2016-25

28.9%

24.5%

19.7%

HEV

2025

98%

PHEV 1,069

6%

1%

+11% 5%

88% 2%

2,688

2016

BEV

CAGR

2016-25

9.5%

35.2%

22.7%

20% 25%

34% 71%

XX%

Source: Expert Interviews, Roland Berger

Expected penetration by 2025

Global EV/PHEV sales - forecasts


China deep dive

EV/PHEV vehicle park [m vehicles]

2015

40-50.0%

2020 2025

15-20.0%

2030

7-10.0%

1.5%

0.5 >5 >20 >80

Core activities Target sales of EV/PHEV [% of total sales]

> Subsidies

– Direct EV subsidies

– Vehicle registration process

– Free of purchase tax

> Push domestic EV/PHEV vehicles

– OEM specific CO2e targets

– OEM specific NEV credit ratio targets1)

> Drive domestic battery cell production

– White list of battery cell supplier – whose cells are eligible for NEV subsidies – currently exclude Korean cell manufacturer

– Likely Korean cell manufacturer will be added

China announced ambitious BEV/PHEV plans and pushes for domestic EV and cell manufacturing

Source: MIIT; Roland Berger

Current activities in China

1) Effective from 2018/4/1, NEV credit ratio targets in 2019 is 10%, 2020 is 12%


We have developed three scenarios of BEV/PHEV market forecast till 2025 – We expect sales to vary from 3,382k to 6,231k

Source: Public information, Expert interview, Roland Berger

579

6,231

4,721

3,382

2017E 2025E

Conservative

Base

Optimistic

2,469

3,157

2022E

1,947

[k units]

27%

2017-22E CAGR

40%

34%

Comments

> Three scenarios have been developed based on different regulatory environment and OEM's reaction, which is the key driver for BEV/PHEV sales in China

> Base case reflects a realistic OEM response to CAFC and BEV/PHEV Credit mechanism

Most likely scenario

China NEV market forecast – By scenario

China NEV market forecast till 2025E [k units, NEV sales, Passenger Vehicles]

20%

2022-25E CAGR

25%

24%

11.7%

21.6%

16.3%

2025 NEV penetration

Note:

In China definition, HEV(hybrid) is normally

not counted as part of EV plan, which is

different from some countries

So in this model, we only count BEV/PHEV


Under base scenario, China BEV/PHEV markets are expected for a strong growth, BEV will take major shares

29%

71%

2022E

32%

2020

68%

34%

826

33%

70%

2,469

2021

2,014

1,587

34%

66%

2019

30%

1,205

73%

2018 2017 2015

207

336

2014

68

579 81%

2016

67% 76% 19%

23

BEV

PHEV

2013 2025E

4,721

25% 66%

2024E

27%

3,829

75%

2023E

3,085

24%

COMMENTS

> PHEV is expected to increase its share after 2017 with ambitious PHEV product launch plan of JV/import OEMs

> BEV will remain major share in the long run

– Supportive policies in favor of BEV (e.g. more credits accumulated for BEV models)

– Economics cost of BEV will be further reduced to be lower than PHEV.

0.1%

0.4%

1.1%

1.5%

2.4%

3.4%

CAGR '15-20E

48%

55%

50%

[k units]

Source: Expert interview, IHS database, CAAM; Roland Berger

4.8%

6.1%

CAGR '20E-25E

27%

18%

24%

China market forecast – base scenario

China NEV market forecast by PHEV/BEV – Passenger Vehicles

7.6%

9.0%

11.1%

16.3%

13.5% Subsidy driven market

> Strong subsidy

> Plates in restricted cities

> No purchase tax

NEV Penetration1)

Product driven market

> Fastly retreating subsidy

> Dual credits requirements

> Higher tech. requirements


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

11 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 1 0 6 28

South Korea

India

Germany

Japan

United States

China

Brazil

France

Canada

Thailand

United Kingdom

Turkey

Iran

Spain

Russia

Czech Republic

Indonesia

Italy

Slovakia

Mexico

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

11 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 0 5

Dongfeng

Ford GM

Hyundai

R-N

Toyota

VW

FCA PSA

Suzuki

Daimler

BMW

SAIC-GM-Wuling

Geely

Changan

Mazda BAIC Great Wall

Tata Honda

Winners

In 2017, China is the largest automotive market with some emerging players, which attract much attention

Production ∆ 2017e vs. 2016 [%]2)

Avg. 2.0%

By production country By OEM group

Total production 2017e [m units]

Winners

Losers Losers

Top 20 by country and by OEM group, light vehicle production1)

Source: IHS, Lazard, Roland Berger

1) Incl. light commercial vehicles; 2) Year-on-year growth rate

Backup


The seven key factors are expected to be the main driver of China xEV market development in the next 3-5 years

Key xEV market drivers

> CAFC and xEV credit dual management is designed as successor to subsidy

to keep the xEV market growing after 2020 from top level

> Will the subsidy not be removed in 2020, BEV is more cost-advantageous than ICE models; Otherwise, BEV's TCO is expected to catch up 2-3 years later

Su

pp

ly

Dem

and

P

olic

y &

Reg

ula

tio

n

> More consumers have the opportunity to know EV manufacturers and consider to purchase their products, esp. PHEV models

> Government will continue xEV subsidy till 2020, and BEV subsidy expected to phase out slower than PHEV's

> Government has defined a clear target for charging pile construction in 2020, and physical constraints and commercial environment are also the key factors to affect infrastructure development

> China government will leverage different kinds of regulation tool to push xEV market move forward

> The major OEMs take much effort in new xEV planning and are expected to launch more xEV products within the near 3-5 years

CAFC and xEV

credit

Cost

effectiveness

Consumer

demand

Subsidy

Infrastructure

Policies

New xEV models

BEV PHEV

6

3

2

5

7

4

1



The major OEMs take much effort in new xEV planning and are expected to launch more xEV products within the near 3-5 years

Source: Desk research; Roland Berger

[Unit: k units]

2022 2,584

2,469

2021 2,100

2,014

2020 1,663

1,587

2019 1,255

1,205

2018 860

826

Market supply forecast

RB sales forecast

EV Model pipeline – Sales vs. supply

New EV models 1

Price range in RMB10K


Besides traditional OEMs, there are new entrants with focus ONLY on EV

Powertrain Strategy

ICE-dominated BEV-focused

Source: Desk research, Roland Berger analysis

OEM clustering on xEV sector

Low

High

PHEV-majority

5 New Entrants

1 ICE-oriented International

3 Local PHEV-focused 4 Local BEV Pioneer

2 Electrified International

Bra

nd

pre

miu

m

New EV models 1


With the market gradually developed, consumers get to know the xEV manufacturers and consider to purchase their products

Acceptance Awareness

Consider

buying

1%

29%

2%

Already

bought/Will

buy

Still early

to decide

Not clear

37%

31%

Wait till few

accepts MB Chery Honda BMW

16% 19%

14% 12%

VW

21%

Audi

25%

Toyota

44%

BYD

46%

9%

Nissan

Customer needs

Source: JD Power; Roland Berger

Consumer demand 2


Cost effectiveness of EV will improve, which fundamentally supports the market growth

Source: Desk research, expert interview, Roland Berger

Roewe RX5 / eRX5 TCO comparison [Shanghai, 2017 & 2020]

Roewe RX5 (ICE) [k, RMB]

2017

15,000 km/yr

2020 with

subsidy2)

15,000 km/yr

2020 without

subsidy

15,000 km/yr

Payback

5th year

2nd year

6th year

20.3 4.1

6.1 10.1

Roewe eRX5 (EV) [k, RMB]

One-time cost Annual operating cost

213.6 66.0

0.0 279.6

One-time cost Annual operating cost

5-year Cost

264 270

ICE EV

- 6

18.4 4.1

5.8 8.6 178.2 49.5

0.0 227.7

220 252 -32

To

tal

227.7

Sub

sidy

0.0

Pur

chas

e ta

x

0.0

Pric

e

227.7 269 252

+ 17

1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6

159.3 0.0

14.5 144.8

10.2 0.3

8.4 1.5

8.3 0.3

6.8 1.2

168.2 0.0

15.3 153.0

Fue

l

Insu

ranc

e

5.8

Mai

nten

ance

4.1 18.4

To

tal

8.6

Sub

sidy

To

tal

159.3

MS

RP

144.8 14.5 0.0

Pur

chas

e ta

x

6.8

Ele

ctric

ity

0.3

Insu

ranc

e

8.3

Mai

nten

ance

To

tal

1.2

Cost effectiveness 3


National PV NEV subsidy is expected to continue promoting EV sales strongly but gradually phasing out

Source: Desk research; Roland Berger

[k CNY/unit]

Central (national) government further lower (declining rate of 20% is applied 2016 vs. 2017) the subsidy level among different endurance mileage category and across BEV and PHEV segment

Municipal (local) government subsidy shall not exceed 50% of the subsidy from the central government (previously under most frequent case, central subsidy : municipal subsidy = 1:1, local government also offers other expense cut and subsidy on usage)

20%

50%

32

545454

45

32

45

30

555555

45

25

45

24

444444

36

20

36

22

5045

34

15

0

24

BEV: 200km ≤ R < 250km

BEV: 100km ≤ R < 150km

BEV: 150km ≤ R < 200km

BEV: 300km ≤ R< 400km

PHEV(incl. EREV): R≥50

BEV: 250km ≤ R< 300km

BEV: 400km ≤ R

2018 2016 2017 2015

Notice on Adjusting

the Subsidy Policies

on the Promotion

and Appl. of NEV”

MIIT, MOF, Central Office

Declining national PV NEV subsidy level from 2015 to 2020

National PV NEV subsidy [2015-2018]

2018 encouragement

2018 no subsidy

Subsidy 5


CAFC and xEV credits are in place in order, indicating a higher xEV market penetration

3.2

4.0

5.0

6.9

2025E 2030E 2020E 2015

Government target: industry average fuel consumption (2015-2030E) [L/100km]

Method: credit management (2015-2020E)

Punishments for OEMs with total negative credits or negative xEV credits:

> Suspend new product approval which cannot meet FC target

> OEM will be fined if target not met

Impact

> In order to reach credit target, OEMs need to

– Adjust product portfolio, e.g.

- Develop / localize xEV models in China

- Increase share of energy saving models

– Enhance fuel efficiency of engine

Trends towards 2025

> Government is expected to issue more aggressive management method to ensure achievement of stricter fuel consumption target

CAFC credit

xEV credit

Source: MIIT, CAFC and xEV credit management method, Roland Berger

1) Corporate (OEM dependent ) average fuel consumption

CAFC1) and xEV credit management

CAFC / xEV credits 6


> Complied with German standard and improved facility compatibility

To support xEV market development, government actively introduced relevant policies with support of SOE grid companies

Topic

Total number

Price

Grid

Standard

> Plan to construct 400 k charging piles and 2 k change station to set up power supply network by end of 2015

> State Grid plans to construct fast-charging network by 2020 based on “four-vertical & four-horizontal” high way network, covering 19,000 km

> Formulate energy pricing standard and service fee standard

> Encourage parking fee deduction

> State Grid announced to open and distributed grid connection project and other major measures to better serve EV charging facility market

> Southern Grid also develops similar plan with dedicated subsidiary to invest in the infrastructure

> Beijing: New estates must equip 18% parking place with charging piles

> Shanghai: There must be one public charging facility spot every 5 km2 downtown area. By end of 2015, Shanghai plans to build over 6,000 charging piles across the city to support over 10,000 EVs

> Wuhan: xEV is expected to charge for free in the appointed charging spots

> Hefei, Nanjing, Hebei, Foshan, Jiangxi: Formulated charging service fee related standard

> Suzhou: Subsidy for charging facilities service provider, 15% of the construction fee

Central government planning Regional implementation

Wider and more

interconnected

charging network for

xEV market

development

Further eliminate

consumers’ range

anxiety for future

development of

continuous driving,

long-distance driving

and high-speed

driving

Source: Desk research; Roland Berger Analysis

Infrastructure policies interpretation

Infrastructure 7


Beyond aforementioned drivers, some investors believe that fundamental change in automotive ecosystem will favor EV growth

Automotive disruption

Technology and regulatory progress

High customer value and improved safety

2. Autonomous

Connectivity

AI

Evolution of digital technologies and

culture

3. Digitalized

Alternative

fuels

Automated

driving

Non-traditional

entrants

ICE

advancement

Mobility

solutions

Start-up

OEMs

Connectivity

Low cost

brands

New

retail

Geographic

shift

Changing customer behavior (sharing vs.

owning)

New mobility mix and new business

models/players

1. New Mobility

Compliance with future emissions regulations

Electrification landscape incl. infrastructure

4. Electrified

Powertrain

electrification

Emissions

regulations Light-

weighting

Fuel

cells

Robotaxi world

Source: Roland Berger Analysis


There are different scenarios on the future, but one thing is clear that the ecosystem will be more complicated

Past Future

Traditional supplier

Tier 1 OEM

OEM

OEM

Traditional OEM

traditional supplier

xxx xxx

xxx

xxx

Tech giant

New OEM

Service

provider Platform

Car

sharing

New OEM

Softwa

re

Consumer

electronics

traditional

OEM

OEM OEM

OEM

Ecosystem change

Tier 1 Tier 1

Tier 1

Tier 1 Tier 1

Apple

?

？

Zipcar

DIDI

Google

Huawei

Tesla

Next EV

？

> New entrants are not necessary to

become new OEMs, but looking for new

value chain position

> Mobility platform operator will likely have

more power in defining products and

control the major value chain

> Technology giant could cooperate with

OEMs and operators to explore extra

value

Market is more complicated, and more challenging

Comments

Source: Roland Berger Analysis


Under the push of new technology and business models, many new players entered auto industry with different objectives

Objectives

Non car manufacturer

Car manufacturer

Focus on hardware Focus on software

Competency

和谐富腾

Comments

The new entrants are mainly 2 groups：

> Startup EV players

> Tech giants

– MSP1)

– Tech giants focusing on producing AD vehicles

– New technology supplier focusing on EV core tech, AD relate tech, connectivity etc.

Overview of new entrants

Source: Roland Berger analysis

Start ups

1) Mobility Service Platform


The trend of electrification results in significant impact on components and hence machinery OEMS

Impact on selected components…

Growing electric vehicle market

…and resulting impact on machining capacity for:

Chassis

2

Electrical and Electronics

1

Powertrain

Interior

Body & Structure

> Casting > Forging/Forming > Machining > Surface treatment > …

> Tools/Machining > Metal sheet forming > Die casting > Extrusion > GFK/CFK production > Welding/Joining > Painting > …

1

2

Powertrain

Body & Structure

Key impacts



Detailed analysis of component change

First, xEV powertrain components have new production capacity requirements

Combustion engine E-Motor Gearbox Differential Clutch Battery

ICE BEV

New components

Required

> Electric motor

> Battery

> Power electronics (inverter, charger, DC/DC)

> High voltage wiring

Ceased components

Not required anymore

> Combustion engine and auxiliaries

> Fuel tank and supply

> Exhaust system

> Multi-stage transmission and clutch

Very high CNC machine demand

no CNC machine demand

Capacity impact on machine level

1 Powertrain

1) CNC: Computerized Numerical Control



Growth rates in relevant markets for conventional powertrain components expected to turn negative before 2025…

Example: Market value growth, [CAGR %]

Source: Roland Berger component model

Engine

Fuel system (tank, filter, pump, pipes)

Exhaust (incl. Aftertreatment)

Multi stage transmission

-2%

2015- 2020

1%

2010- 2015

2020- 2025

3%

4%

2010- 2015

2020- 2025

0% 1%

2015- 2020

4%

-4%

2%

5%

-1%

2%

5-year CAGR [%] Growth of vehicle production

1 Powertrain


… while electrified powertrain components will further see strong growth rates

Example: Market value growth, [CAGR %]

Source: Roland Berger component model

E-motor

Inverter

Battery

Other power electronic

2020- 2025

13% 19%

2010- 2015

22%

2015- 2020

14%

29% 30%

2020- 2025

2010- 2015

2015- 2020

14%

34%

17%

2%

47%

3%

5-year CAGR [%] Growth of vehicle production

1 Powertrain


Focus areas for lightweight construction in a passenger car

Source: Daimler; Roland Berger

In xEVs weight reductions gain in importance to ensure drivability – OEMs are willing to pay a partial premium per kg weight reduction

Conventional ICE vehicle

Electric vehicle

0

Market feedback

"Electric vehicles are fairly balanced due to the low center of gravity caused by the batteries. Therefore, weight reduction measures are implemented in all parts of the car", Market expert

"To improve driving dynamics, the focus for weight reduction of conventional cars is put close to the engine. This offers potential for further hollow parts in the drivetrain", Market expert

"The center of gravity needs to be in the lower center of the car, therefore side shafts are a popular part for the use of hollow components", Market experts

Relative importance for lightweight material substitution High Low

2 Body & Structure


Light weighting is more than just light weight material – Many opportunities for advanced production technologies

Methods towards light weighting (overview)

Optimized material

Substitution of conventional materials with innovative lightweight materials :

> Ultra-high strength steel (UHSS) instead of steel

> AL/MG cast components

> CFRP instead of metal

> Coated components

Optimized parts design

Optimized design within specifications:

> Load-capable design of control arms

> Optimized beads and topology of sheet metal parts

> Multi-material solution

> Aluminum-Space-Frame

New technologies

New innovative and efficient manufacturing technologies:

> Tailored products

> Laser welding (instead of fitting)

> Hybrid forging for complex powertrain parts

> Prepreg stamping for Fiber reinforced plastics

Optimized car design

New innovative module, system or car design:

> Direct fitting into the chassis

> Integral design and functional integration

> Redundancy of joining technologies

New innovative design and production technology Alternative materials


2 Body & Structure


Al cast components are key components of multi-material solutions in vehicle bodies – High growth rates beyond 2025 expected

Market development for selected body & structure components


'15-'20

44%

'10-'15

14%

78%

'20-'25 '15-'20

>100%

14% 10%

'20-'25 '10-'15

14% 17%

46%

'10-'15 '20-'25 '15-'20

~100%

'15-'20 '10-'15

29%

'20-'25

13%

5-Year CAGR [%] Growth of vehicle production [%]

Doors & closures Shock tower IP beam Front end carrier

Mg/Al die casting Al die casting Mg/Al die casting Al die casting

2 Body & Structure


Casted AL structural components will be used in many upper segment cars

A/B

C

D

E/F

BEV

Selected OEM's usage of casted AL structural components by 2020

Seg

men

ts

Considered OEMs with casted AL structural components Potential additional OEMs with casted AL structural components

not covered

not covered

Illustrative

not covered

not covered

Source: IHS; EuroCarBody; Roland Berger

No application Small content per vehicle (1-2 component, e.g. front shock towers)

Medium content per vehicle (e.g. front and rear shock towers)

High content per vehicle (> 4 components)

Very high content per vehicle

Further OEMs with niche application

(especially Cadillac)

not covered

2 Body & Structure

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The future of the automotive industry - event.buhlergroup.com · We have developed three scenarios of BEV/PHEV market forecast till 2025 – We expect sales to vary from 3,382k to