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The Future of Roads and TransportWhat we know and what we don’t know

Kelly Pitera

Associate professor, NTNU

Bygg- og miljøteknikk

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The Future of Roads and Transport

Changes due to

• Technology (vehicles, communication…)

• Society (the way we want to live)

• Political priorities (for example: green, smart,

carbon neutral…)

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The Future of Roads and Transport

Many questions…

• What is the new technology?

• When will it be ready?

• How will new technology be used?

• What infrastructure is required?

Not that many answers (yet).

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Autonomous vs Connected Vehicles

• Autonomous Vehicle (AV): a vehicle that is capable of

sensing its environment and moving with little or

no human input

• Connected Vehicle (CV): a vehicle that can

communicate with other vehicles and the surrounding

environment (information is provided to the driver or the

road operators)

• AVs and CVs can be separate, but the future is likely to

bring CAVs Connected Automated Vehicles

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SAE Levels of Automation

https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/thebirminghambrief/items/2016/11/driving-the-revolution.aspx

Today The future

6https://www.danielrrosen.com/study-most-americans-not-thrilled-about-autonomous-cars/

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Connectivity to a cloud

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V2X (Vehicle to Everything)

https://www.rcrwireless.com/20180601/network-infrastructure/what-is-c-v2x-tag17-tag99

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Geofencing Oslo Demo (connectivity)

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Role of public and private

stakeholders

• Private stackholders are providing the technology

– Vehicles, communication platforms, services (MaaS)

• Public stakeholders establish policies and

regulations

– Safety, privacy/data sharing, cybersecurity, use/mobility,

infrastructure

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CAVs and Congestion

Increasing capacity• CAVs can operate with smaller headways and/or as platoons

• More efficient intersection operations

• Although little impact until high levels of penetration(Atkins, Research on the Impacts of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) on Traffic Flow, 2016)

But induced demand• New classes of users: elderly, disabled, youth up to 14%

increase in demand (US study: Harper et al. Estimating potential increases in travel with

autonomous vehicles for the non-driving, elderly and people with travel-restrictive medical conditions, 2016)

• Value of time: can now do things while commuting

• Combined with increased capacity increased demand 10-35% (Fagnant, Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities, barriers and policy recommendations,

2015) (Fehrs and Peers, Next Generation Vehicles

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The future of mobility

• The average vehicle is used 4% of the day (1 hour)

Future mobility

• Shared

• On-demand (flexible)

• On a backbone of

collective transport

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Visions for AV Deployment

Fixed and

Scheduled

Services

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Visions for AV Deployment

Fixed and

Scheduled

Services

Point to Point

Mobility on

Demand

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Visions for AV Deployment

Fixed and

Scheduled

Services

Freight

Point to Point

Mobility on

Demand

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Visions for AV Deployment

Fixed and

Scheduled

Services

FreightUtility Services

(garbage collection,

street sweeping)

Point to Point

Mobility on

Demand

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Visions for AV Deployment

Fixed and

Scheduled

Services

FreightUtility Services

(garbage collection,

street sweeping)

Point to Point

Mobility on

Demand

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Final thoughts

• Smart technology must go hand in hand with smart policy

• Many unknowns– Vehicle and communication technology (what and when)

– Public/private partnerships

– Level of demand

• CAVs can induce demand– How do we model the potential demand impacts?

– How do we get people (Norwegians) out of their private cars?

– How do we make sure CAVs don’t compete with the collectivetransport system?

• Then we can make changes to how we plan ourinfrastructure

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Thank you

Kelly Pitera

NTNU Bygg- og miljøteknikk

kelly.pitera@ntnu.no