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The Future of Online Learning and a Look at Emerging Technologies
Curt Bonk, Ph.D.
Indiana University
CourseShare.com
http://php.indiana.edu/~cjbonk
The future of e-learning is learner-centric (Adler & Rae, Jan., 2002, e-learning mag)
• Imagine that in the future you will have your own personalized learning environment that reflects your individual style and learning needs, and is instantly available. Not only will it be your one point of learning entry for everything you need to learn, but it will continue to learn as you learn and modify its behavior based on interacting with you over time.
• Have you ever checked your e-mail over a high-speed Internet connection, while waiting at a bus stop?
• Have you ever chatted with your pals on the Net, using high-definition television?
• How about hooking your car up to the Internet so that someone knows where you are at all times?
Welcome to your future Internet,Alan Boyle, MSNBC, March 17, 2002
Future of E-Learning Survey• Instructor-Led #1 in next 24 months,
Internet/Intranet #2, Multimedia #3• Most use Web as supplement to instructor-led• All Technology:
– 1. Knowledge management tools – 2. Wireless Technology, – 3. Reusable Learning Objects, – 4. Peer-to-Peer Collaboration, – 5. Mentoring, – 6. Language Support
• Want White Papers on Course Design/Dev.
Percent of Organizations that Have a Strategic Plan for E-Learning
No45%
Yes55%
Aspect of E-Learning that Your Organization will Focus on in Next 24 Months
None/Other5%
Creation of Content
55%Delivery of Content
25%
Evaluation of E-Learning
15%
E-Learning Area of Most Growth in Next 24 Months
E-Learning Services
20%
None/Other5%
E-Learning Technology
30%
E-Learning Content
45%
Percent of Online Training in Organization in 24 Months
0
2
4
6
8
10
0-20 21-40 41-60 61-80 81-100
Nu
mb
er o
f R
esp
on
den
ts
0 5 10 15
Number of Respondents
Instructor-Led
Self-Paced Learning
Team-Based/Peer Collab
Mentoring
Async Instructor-Led
Problem-Based Learning
Personal Online Coaching
Sync Instructor-Led
Other
Most Appropriate Training Methods for Your Organization in Next 24 Months
0 5 10 15
Number of Respondents
Computer Applications
Job-Related Skills Dev
Technical
Customer Service
Communication
Customer Product Testing
Personal Development
Sales/Marketing
Computer Systems
Executive Ed
None of These
Skills Your Organization will Teach Using E-Learning Technologies in the Next 24 Months
Find a Winning Blend (Andy Snidor, March 2002, e-learning Magazine)
“…there is no real vendor or approach that provides the complete solution…Finding the ideal blend of technology and non-technology delivery components and matching those with appropriate content and structure is not a very complex process if the goals are clear.”
To understand future, must know technologies
of today!
Today: Six Categories of E-Learning Vendors Today
(Clark Aldrich, 2001, Global Learning 2008)
1. LMS Portals: infrastructure2. LCMS: tools for content library3. Virtual Classrooms: synchronous
instructor (and asynchronous)4. Off-the-shelf: bus & IT courses5. Custom Content: build courses6. Integrators: solutions (Eduprise)
1. LMS Management Technologies(Karrer, 2001, Online Learning Conference)
• Choices: Saba, Docent, Plateau, Click2Learn, Sun.
• Content: Off the Shelf LMS, Custom LMS, SCORM compatible
• Report Recommendations:1. Hall, B. (2000a). Learning management systems: How to
choose the right system for your organization. Sunnyvale, CA: Brandon-Hall.com.
2. Hall, B. (2000b). Live e-learning: How to choose a system for your organization. Sunnyvale, CA: Brandon-Hall.com.
2. LCMS Management Technologies
(Karrer, 2001, Online Learning Conference)
• LCMS: WBT Systems, Global Knowledge, KnowledgeXtensions, etc.
• Learning objects (PowerPoint slides, video clips, illustrations, quiz questions, course modules): Organize and deliver them in infinite ways
3. Synchronous Instructor-Led Technologies
(Karrer, 2001, Online Learning Conference)
• Virtual Classroom: NetMeeting, Placeware, Centra, HorizonLive, WebEx
• Web-Casts, Whiteboards, Chats, Live Surveys, Polls, Reports, Web Browsing, File Transfer, Application Sharing, Archives, Break-Out Rooms
Asynchronous Instructor-Led Technologies
• Sitescape Forum, FirstClass, Blackboard
4. E-Learning Content
Capella Click 2 Learn Colleges/Universities Digital Think Docent, Inc. Eduprise Element K eMind.com eSocrates ExecuTrain Jones International University KnowledgeNet
Knowledge Planet Mentergy--includes LearnLinc
products Microsoft Training and Service Netg Prime Learning Saba Smart Force ThinQ (i.e., Trainingnet) TrainSeek Vcampus Viviance New Education Walden Univ./Institute
How bad is the content?
Timeout for a break from our sponsors…
The Future Note: any predictions are bound to
be too conservative!!!
14 E-Learning Technologies of Future?
1. Human Resource Portals/Business Development Resources
2. Communities of Practice
3. Electronic Books4. Instructor/Trainer
Portals5. Knowledge
Management6. Intelligent Agents7. Online Language
Support
8. Online Mentoring
9. Online Simulations
10. Peer-to-Peer Collaboration
11. Reusable Knowledge Objects
12. Virtual Worlds/Virtual Reality/AI
13. Wearable Computing
14. Wireless Technology
15. Assistive Technologies
1. Human Resource Portals/Business Development Resources
• Dial a job• Job matching• Resume sharing• Contract workers
=============• E-Learning Courses• E-Learning Instructors• Secure New Business
But What About RPF Matching Sites?
2. Communities of Practice
• Awareness of who is in the space– Roster of who belongs– Roster of who is currently viewing materials;
• Customization of the space for the group– a customized identifying banner
• Ability to interact in multiple synchronous and asynchronous ways.
• Place for a community to identify who they are– charter, principles, membership, goals, etc.
Community Space at Eli Lilly“The space is continuing to evolve, but
the intention is to create a place that feels like you are with other people …CommunitySpace works best when we have spent time building a community environment as opposed to using the technology in isolation. Building of relationships is critical to community success and we have found this difficult to do on-line alone.”
Expert Chat: Java Programmers
3. Electronic Books
4. Instructor/Trainer Portals
The future of e-learning is learner-centric
(Adler & Rae, Jan., 2002, e-learning mag)
“You could also choose to have an intelligent, interactive mentor who pops up anytime you choose when you need a little performance support. For example, you may be writing a technical brief when you realize you need more in-depth information on the topic. You could then click on a mentor icon on your desktop to bring up the intelligent mentor. The mentor would gather the learning objects necessary and deliver them to the environment, which would assemble them for an immediate learning experience.”
7. Online Language Support (pronunciation, communication, vocabulary, grammar, etc.)
Typical Features (e.g., Englishtown (millions of users from over 100 countries)
• Online Conversation Classes• Experienced Teachers (certified ESL)• Expert Mentors• Peer-to-Peer Conversation• Private Conversation Classes• Placement Tests• Personalized Feedback• University Certification• Self-Paced Lessons
8. Online MentoringExpert mentors novice from remote location
Carnegie Mellon Univ.
Peer Questions & Team Meeting
Adventure LearningPurpose: engage in adventurous study of the global environment.(e.g., Telepresence or virtual fieldtrips, ask an expert forums, cross-classroom collaboration, debate forums, MayaQuest)
• NASA and network gurus are working together to extend the Internet to other worlds in the next few years. But there are some limits that not even the World Wide Web can route around, such as the speed of light. So the builders of the Interplanetary Internet are going back to the basics, retooling protocols for future communications with Mars and beyond.
A web’s that’s out of this worldAlan Boyle, MSNBC, Nov. 8, 1999
The future of e-learning is learner-centric
(Adler & Rae, Jan., 2002, e-learning mag)
“At the beginning of the learning module, you can decide whether you wish to have your learning tracked and reported to you or to your personnel file in the company's HR system. Summary information about the course you complete would be stored in your personalized learning environment for immediate retrieval whenever you need it for refresher learning…The digital mentor adapts and "learns" how you are learning and asks questions that branch you to additional learning if you choose it.”
9. Online Simulations (SimuLearn)
SimuLearn’s Virtual Leader Components
1. Power: explores the effects of informal (i.e., expertise and recognized alliances) and formal (e.g., title) power
2. Ideas: explores effective strategies for generating ideas
3. Tension: looking at how tension affects performance
• Once the 3 ingredients are aligned and balanced, the leaders commit to a course of action. (fosters creativity, role play, DM’ing)
Indeliq
Ninth House: Management Scenarios
10. Peer-to-Peer Collaboration(Group-enabled Project Management)
Possibilities:1. Data Sharing
(www.napster.com)2. Resource Sharing
(www.intel.com/cure/overview.htm)
3. Workgroup Collaboration (www.groove.net)
Grove creates a shared space to explain problems, receive assignments, post course updates, hold group meetings, write and edit papers, and teach students research methods.
Next Generation P2P CollaborationeWeek, Groove 2.0 Professional Edition,
Jason Brooks, May 20, 2002
• Groove now integrates somewhat with certain elements of Microsoft Corp.'s Office. For example, we created a new shared space from a message within Outlook, from which we could launch a discussion of the message. We could collaboratively review and edit a Word document that had been attached to the message. While working with that Word document, one user at a time could make edits, taking control via a Groove-specific tool bar. Groove also opened a chat window in which reviewers could discuss their edits…collaborators to collect and view data in their shared spaces.
Some go so far as to say…
11. Reusable Knowledge Objects
Figure 28. Organizational Interest in Knowledge Objects
Agree44%
Strongly Agree25%
Unsure17%
Strongly Disagree
3%Disagree
11%
Figure 27. Organizational Ownership of Online Courses and Materials
0102030405060708090
100
Clear Guidelines Property ofOrganization
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
sp
on
de
nts
Agree/Totally Agree
Unsure
Disagree/StronglyDisagree
“Appealing to the attention-deficit society…online learning will only be taken up by employees as part of continuous professional development if it is engaging, highly relevant and available in small doses.…A five-minute “learning object” can be digested in between phone calls or meetings.”
Sarah Murray, Dec 2001, Financial Times.com; interview with Terry Nulty, President, Element K
What is a Learning Object?
• “Learning Objects are small or large resources that can be used to provide a learning experience. These assets can be lessons, video clips, images, or even people. The Learning Objects can represent tiny "chunks" of knowledge, or they can be whole courses.”
Claude Ostyn, Click2Learn
Displaying Learning ObjectsStephen Downes, New Tools, New Media
“Consider the impact of a resource like Martindale’s Health Science Guide, a resource center listing 60,000 teaching files and 129,000 medical cases. Such a resource if made available to medical schools around the world, would greatly facilitate the creation of courses in medicine….” (as well as sustainable revenue for the center)
Sharable Content Object Reference Model
A software model that defines the interrelationship of course components, data models, and protocols such that content “objects” are sharable across systems that conform with the same model.
(Bob Wisher, 2001)
USER COMMUNITIES
USER COMMUNITIES
CONTENTCREATORSCONTENT
CREATORS
CONTENTASSEMBLERS
CONTENTASSEMBLERS
11
LearningObjects
Courses &eBooks
Learning Objects Network MissionLearning Objects Network MissionLearning Objects
Network, Inc.
LEARNING OBJECTS NETWORK
LEARNING OBJECTS NETWORK
Enable secure storage, location, purchase, and
delivery of high value digital content
Enable secure storage, location, purchase, and
delivery of high value digital content
Want to easily locate, pay for, personalize, and use content from
quality providers
Want to seamlessly create, store, update,
and securely sell content to assemblers
and end users
Want to easily locate,
pay for, assemble,
store, update, and
securely sell content to
end users
““Publishers”Publishers”
TechnologyTechnologyDistributionDistribution
Software Developers Book Publishers Hollywood Producers Newspapers On-Line Services
Cable Companies Broadcasters Telephone Cos. Computer Nets Retail Stores
ISDN MPEG/DVI Photo CD HDTV QuickTime OS/2 Windows
USERSUSERS
A Model for Standards Evolution
ApprovedStandards
R&D Concepts
LabsTestbedsMarkets
StandardsBodies
SpecConsortia
SpecConsortia
SpecConsortia
SpecConsortia
LabsTestbedsMarkets
Labs,Testbeds,Markets
StandardsBodies
TechnicalSpecifications
Reference Models“Applications
Profiles”
AccreditedStandards
AICCIMSARIANDNE
ADLALIC
IEEE ISO
ADL Strategy (Bob Wisher, 2001)
Use network-based technologies
Promote large-scale cooperation to satisfy common needs
Create platform-independent, reusable content
Develop common specifications for interoperability /reuse
Enhance performance with emerging and next-generation
technologies
Provide incentives for organizational and cultural change
Accessible: access instructional components from one location and deliver them to many other locations
Interoperable: use instructional components developed in one location with a different platform in another location
Reusable: incorporate instructional components into multiple applications
Durable: operate instructional components when base technology changes, without redesign or recoding
Affordable: increase learning effectiveness significantly while reducing time and costs
Accessible: access instructional components from one location and deliver them to many other locations
Interoperable: use instructional components developed in one location with a different platform in another location
Reusable: incorporate instructional components into multiple applications
Durable: operate instructional components when base technology changes, without redesign or recoding
Affordable: increase learning effectiveness significantly while reducing time and costs
ADL Functional Requirements(Bob Wisher, 2001)
Standards Make Things Work
……we take them for grantedwe take them for granted
• Railroad tracks• Lightbulbs• Power outlets• Beer bottle caps• Phone lines• The InternetStandards for Standards for
interchangeable parts interchangeable parts and data…and data…
Content Areas
• Medical / Allied health, especially EMT and clinical
• Business, especially supply management, acquisition, etc.
• IT, especially security• K-12 and teacher education• Nanotechnology (bioengineering, DNA, etc.)• Perhaps naval law or naval aeronautical
engineering• Terrorism
Judy Brown, 2001
12. Virtual Worlds/Virtual Reality
Avatars--representations of peopleObjects--representations of objects Maps--the landscape which can be exploredBots--artificial intelligence
Possibilities for Corporate Training
• Virtual seminars and presentations, with distant colleagues interacting within a virtual conference hall
• Demonstration of new building designs that people can explore, discuss and modify
• Demonstrations of processes or models that are difficult to understand with static graphs/charts
13. Wearable Computing
Keyglove
Build it yourself
Contacts on fingers allow to type by touching fingers
“chorded” keyboard
Mouse on back
Next version wireless to control up to 6 devices
IBM VisionPad
Created as a small laptop
Applications will determine how close it meets our model
IBM Wearable ThinkPad
14. Wireless Technology
Wireless Training
“The best kind of Performance Support keeps employees knowledge “fresh” and always within reach. Wireless technology makes that possible in ways that have never been possible before, and an area which presents completely new training and performance support options for companies.”
15. Assistive Technologies (includes disability compliance software codings)
Close your eyes and imagine what is like to be visually impaired and reliant on the Web! (http://www.rit.edu/%7Eeasi/)
So What Happens to Instructors and Students in the
Future???
“We are evolving out of the era of the Lone Rangers…faculty members can choose to be involved in the design, development, content expertise, delivery, or distribution of course…” (Richard T. Hezel)
Sarah Carr, (Dec 15, 2000, A47), A Day in the Life of a New Type of Professor, The Chronicle of Higher Education
Faculty Member in 2020
• Track 1: Technical Specialist
• Track 2: Personal Guide
• Track 3: Online Facilitator
• Track 4: Course Developer
• Track 5: Course or Program Manager
• Track 6: Work for Hire Online Lecturer
• Track 7: High School Teacher
• Track 8: Unemployed
Track 1: Technical Specialist
• Help critique technical aspects of media and materials built into online courses. Here one would be part of a course development team or instructional design unit. Freelance learning object evaluator. Here one would likely operate alone or as part of a consulting company.
Track 2: Personal Guide
• Provide program or course guidance to students on demand or preplanned. Becomes more of a generalist across university offerings. For example, one might help students see how different learning objects or modules fit together into a degree.
Track 3: Online Facilitator
• Offers timely and informed support to students struggling to complete an online course or inserting questions and nudging development of students who are successfully completing different modules. This is the most similar to college teaching positions today.
Track 4: Course Developer
• Help develop specific courses or topic areas for one or more universities. In many institutions, this will move beyond a course royalty system to a paid position.
Track 5: Course or Program Manager
• Supervisor or manager of an entire new program or courses, most often leading to certificates or master’s degrees. Similar in stature to a development head or chairperson.
Track 6: Work for Hire Online Lecturer
• Is a freelance instructor for one course or a range of course. May work on just one campus or on a range of campuses around the world. While this will be highly popular and rejuvenate careers, institutional policies are yet to be sorted out.
Track 7: High School Teacher
• As universities begin to offer secondary degrees, some college faculty with online teaching experience and teaching degrees will find positions in those classes. Some may view such positions as being demoted to the minor leagues.
Track 8: Unemployed
• If one does not find a niche in one or more of the above tracks or roles, he or she will likely be unemployed or highly unsuccessful.
Student Differences in 2020
• Live Longer• More Educated
– Multiple Degrees
– Accustomed to Multiple Learning Formats
– Design own programs and courses
• Specialists AND Generalists• Courses/Degrees for unknown occupations• Expect to Take Courses Where Live• Cyber-students (various digital aids attached to appendages)
Possible Scenarios in Year 2020
• Virtual U’s and Traditional U’s Coexist
• Traditional Univ’s buy stake in Virtual U’s
• Traditional Univ’s form Consortia
• Some Trad U’s Move Ahead, Some Don’t
• Other Technology arise well beyond Web
• Large Virtual U’s Buy Competing Traditional U’s and shut them down
What Uses for Old Institutions of Higher Learning???
• Museums
• Historical Monuments
• Bomb Shelters
• Resorts and Apartment Complexes
• Nostalgic Retirement Homes
• Green Space
• Prisons
Some Final Advice…
Or Maybe Some Questions???
