The Future of Mobilityand its Implications

Dr George Hazel OBE / 5 November 2015

Transport for Regional Growth Conference

The transport revolution - a new world

Every person will have a personal mobility plan and a mobility service

provider

Future mobility is mode neutral – integration will be transparent to the

user, done in the back office

Global, non-transport players are coming in to lead mobility

The revolution is being driven by these companies for non-transport

reasons

The traditional car purchasing model is breaking down

If every city car was autonomous and shared we would need 10% of the

current cars to move the same number of people to the same places

Future mobility could be free to the end user, like the free internet

Future mobility is moving rapidly from a traditional operationally based model to a new world driven by personalised, customer driven services

“You take the blue pill and the story ends. You wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill and you stay in Wonderland andI show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.”

Morpheus

Survey of Megacity Officials & Influencers (n=522 across 25 cities during Oct./Nov. 2006)

The Future of Cities

Megacities

London Munich Vienna US-Mayors

European GreenCity Index

Sustainable CityChallenge in Canada

Sustainable Cities Complete Mobilityin the GTHA

From Trends to Future Mobility Core Needs

Globalisation

Urbanisation

Land Use

Ageing

Workforce Participation

Smaller Households

Affluence

Consumer Culture

Motorisation

Congestion

Environmental Awareness

Infrastructure Spend

ICT Availability

Governance

Complex Trips

Consumer

Congestion

Enabling Technology

Government Policy

Personalised Options Informed Decisions Simple Mode Neutral Inform & Communicate Personal Connectivity Physical & Virtual

Integration Coordinated Transfer “Zero-Wait State” Trusted Services Perceived Value Transparent Value

Proposition Payment Mechanism Attractive Mobility

Package

User Focused

Seamless

Value

The Future of MobilityPersonal, seamless and of value to the user

Yesterday’s information broadcast:top down

Today’s information broadcast:fast, flexible, interactive, personal and global

The Industry/Profession Challenge

Collision

Public Sector

Energy Sector

ICT Sector

Transport Sector

Mobility Services

Winning in “smart mobility” markets

TODAY TOMORROW

Mobility Service Provider (MaaS)

Val’s lifestyle needs serviced by the

personalised Urban Commuter package

BigCo plc saves money with the Business World

package

Tom is never late with the 15 minute package

Mr and Mrs BeSafe buys family safety and security with the Family package

© ITS Finland

Things

Vehicles

Networks

Service

Buyer

Big

D

ata

Know-howInform

ation

Things that move

• People• Goods

Vehicles

• Land• Sea• Air

Networks

• Transport• ICT• Smart Grid

Service Provider

• Valued• Integrated• TrustedCustomers

• People• Business• Government

The Mobility as a Service Value Chain

ServiceProvide

r

Network

Vehicles

ThingsInformatio

n

The Potential of MaaS

Potential outputs■ Generates new markets and profits – a global business

■ Generates new funding streams from value added products

and services

■ Helps to attract and retain residents, businesses and visitors

through personalised services matched to their lifestyle needs

■ Generates efficiency savings

■ Provides the ability to shape and balance the mobility system

■ Enables the delivery of other strategic objectives like health,

environments and social needs

Mobility as a Service

is driven by finding and capturing customer

value

New personalised products and services

Using incentivisation, gamification, nudging, etc related to customer values

Design-invalue

Find the value

Capture the value

Understand user values from lifestyle needs

MaaS is a User Value Based Approach, not a traditional operational transport approach

People see value very quickly

• London’s Heathrow Airport to City Centre

• Cost on the “Heathrow Express” is £18 for a 15 minute journey

• On the London Underground it can cost as little as £2.90 – BUT takes around 1 hour

• 16,000 passengers take the Heathrow Express on a daily basis

• ….but 1st Class is usually almost empty!

Spitsmijden, Netherlandsincentives to reduce peak traffic

Pilot project

Paid participants to travel by public transport or out of peak time

Used smart phones to provide information and cameras to enforce

Discounts and PTP type advice

20-50% change away from peak car use

Information creates value– increased coffee sales!

Helping to shape cities and regions for the citizen – some potential areas

Cutting congestion and pollution by reducing dynamic parking

Cutting congestion and pollution by delivering to your car

Varying pricing to help retail areas

Balance supply and demand

Promote public transport – eg park and ride at certain times

Promote walking/health by incentivising use of more remote parking

Harnessing the advantages of autonomous, shared vehicles – congestion, land use, etc

What is Scottish Enterprise doing to help companies move into MaaS ?

Unique Selling Point

ScotlandDevolved GovernmentTalented and skilled peopleJust the right sizeEngineering excellence

Industry specialisationTransport

InformaticsEnergy

Retail

MarketsPeople buy SM serviceBusiness buy SM servicePublic Sector buy SM serviceLaunchpad to Global Markets

Research ExcellenceScience

TechnologyEngineering

Mathematics

Potential system for industry led MaaS market

Open Innovation Partner Network

MoU

Private Sector Needs

Experiments Global Leadership

Targeted Implementation

Partner Network Benefits

Access to open data**

Government support and incentivesOver 250 Ambitious Partners in Cluster

Global Tier 1

companies

Exit

Entry

GVA

** Mobility Opportunity Development Environment project is in development

Requests to participate from Global Companies

Global Experiment S T

Global Auto 1 Connected bicycles as sensors experiment

Global IoT 1 Mobility Service Provision

Global Transport MaaS for inbound air travellers

Global OilVehicle-Grid Energy Supply Company

(microgeneration)

Global Auto 2 Connected Vehicle

Global Car Hire Route Optimisation

Global Auto 3 Mobility as a Service (100 LCV’s)

Global V2V;V2I Connected Highway

Global IoT 2 Internet of Moving Things

Global Defence Military grade data Interoperation

Global ITCityNext and open innovation with partner

network

11 Globals Open Innovation with Scottish SMEs S: = qualified leadT: = immediate need

It’s happening and it’s happening quickly!

How self-Driving cars could radically transform Cities

– Lisbon Study 2009, OECD

The auto industry – Bill Ford quotes

NTU and NXP to Develop Smart Mobility Test Bed in

Singapore

Siemens working on MaaS in Austria and Finland

Sweden developing a national MaaS system

Uber is the new bus – San Francisco

Other companies copying Uber

How to respond?

How can the public sector get involved with MaaS systems – can it lead?

What is the role of the public sector?

What is the future for traditional public transit companies?

How can we change from an operational, top down, mode based business

model to a customer focused, seamless, mode neutral business model and

valued by the user and operated by non-traditional global companies?

What is the business model for MaaS systems?

How can we ensure social equity and environmental sustainability?

How do we integrate top down strategic city/regional planning with

bottom up personalised MaaS systems?

The Future of Mobilityand its Implications

Dr George Hazel OBE / 5 November 2015

Transport for Regional Growth Conference