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The Future of Home Heating
The Industry
• Stationary Liquid Fuels Industry • • We are: • – ~6,000 dealers nationwide • – ~8 million homes/Principally in Northeast • – ~7,000,000,000 gallons of fuel annually
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• National Organization Established by Congress in 2000
• A Check-off Program • Responsible for Consumer Education,
Research and Development and Education and Training
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Aggressively move forward
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50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
2010 2020 2030
Re
du
ctio
n i
n C
arb
on
Fo
otp
rin
t
Baseline
10% Reduction
20% Reduction
30%Reduction
40% Reduction
50%Reduction
Fleet replacement by 2030 of all furnaces and boilers from70% to 96% efficiency applying ULS fuel and new condensing technology
Solar thermal hot water heating Impact
B2 first generation biodiesel
B5 first generation biodiesel
B10 first generation biodiesel
B15first generation biodiesel
Second generation biodiesel impact
Which Fuel for the Future
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Bad PM 2.5 emissions Questionable CO2 benefits Lowest heating efficiency
High capital cost Large Space requirement
Lifestyle changes required
Solid Fuel/Wood or Pellets
ULS equal to NG in PM 2.5 emissions B10 equal to NG in CO2e emissions High heating efficiency Lowest oil for oil replacement cost Ideal for high bio fraction future Best for existing oil customer value
Advanced Liquid Fuel
PM 2.5 emissions same as ULS CO2e emissions same as B10
High heating efficiency Costly replacement for oil system
Shale gas vs FRAC Act? Best for existing gas customer value
Infrastructure Issues
Clean Natural Gas Fuel
Northeast’s Distillate Supply Infrastructure
Gulf Coast via Pipeline to Linden, NJ
Refineries in Phila. and NJ
Direct Imports and Redistribution
Via truck from Canada
Via tanker from Canada, Venez., VI,
[And “Other”]
Refineries
Ref
Ref
Large ports and distribution points Other ports of entry Regional pipelines
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Cen
ts p
er G
allo
n
Thou
sand
s of
bpd
PADD 1 Middle Distillate DemandHigh Sulfur Diesel
ULSD
Heating Oil
PADD 1 Wholesale Heating Oil Price
8
Source: EIA
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Governing Organizations
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ASTM Underwriters Laboratory
Local Building Codes
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Conclusion
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Questions