The future of higher education: Innovate or evaporate! · missions delivery modes teaching & learningmissions, delivery modes, teaching & learning arrangements, etc. –We need more,

The future of higher education: Innovate or evaporate!

Dr. Dirk Van Damme

OECD – EDU/CERI

Centre for Educational Research and Innovation

Overview

• The contextual needs for innovation

• Trends and challenges in higher education

• The demand side of innovation: students

• The supply side of innovation: institutions

• OECD and innovation

7 April 2009 2Blackboard Conference

The context for change

• Demography and economics

• Social mobility and equity

• Internationalisation and globalisation

• Institutional diversification and classification


Demography and economics

• Developing knowledge and skills, thus investing in education, will be critical for future economic success

• Expansion of higher education participation and increase of tertiary educationaland increase of tertiary educational attainment

• But– Even more rapid growth in skilled jobs in some

countries (over-schooling in others)– Declining fertility rates and ageing of populations

have serious impact on future student enrolment

7 April 2009 Blackboard Conference 4

Demography and economics

• Continued and even reinforced opportunities for expansion, but realising increased participation will not be automatic

• Impact of the crisis• Not only production, but also utilisation of

human capital counts– Some countries are more successful than others

in human capital utilisation– High utilisation = high return on investment =

high incentive for participation



Source: Education at a Glance 2008


Source: CERI/OECD, 2008

Scenario 1 = Status-quo Scenario 2 = Trend




Source: Lisbon Council, 2006

Social equity

• Persisting inequality of opportunity, but continuing expansion improves equity

• Higher education will remain engine of meritocracy and social mobility

• Demographic challenges will necessitate active diversification of recruitment– Students from ethnic minorities and migrants– Lifelong learners– ‘Reservoirs’ of talents in underrepresented sectors

of population



Source: Education at a Glance 2008



Internationalisation

• Expansion of international students

• Some European countries are increasing their share, but many others lag behind

A i f i l E HE• Attractiveness of continental European HE has not improved drastically– English-speaking countries remain favourite

study destinations

• Crucial importance of language



Source: Education at a Glance, 2008


Globalisation

• Worldwide convergence and integration– Integrated global system of scientific research

– Increasing mobility of students, researchers, teaching staff and institutional leadersteaching staff and institutional leaders

• Emerging market of academics and researchers

– International labour market of graduates• Globalising organisation of professions

• Migration of high-skilled labour is to increase


Diversification/Classification

• Increasing agreement on crucial importance and richness of diversity– Of institutions, programmes, profiles,

missions delivery modes teaching & learningmissions, delivery modes, teaching & learning arrangements, etc.

– We need more, not less diversity to address demands

• Need for new instruments of transparency of diversity


Diversification/Classification

• Transparency in learning outcomes– Tuning Project

– Classification/Mapping initiatives in Bologna Process and ECProcess and EC

– OECD: AHELO

– New approaches to ranking


Trends and challenges

• Main trends in higher education systems(source: OECD, Thematic review tertiary education, 2008)

– Continued growth and expansion

– Diversification of provisionDiversification of provision

– More heterogeneous student population

– New funding arrangements

– Increased focus on accountability and performance

– New forms of institutional governance/management

– Global networking, mobility and collaboration



• Main challenges in higher education systems:– ‘Digestion’ of massification should not lead to

even greater standardisationC ti d i b t i h– Continued expansion, but in much more diversified forms

– Demands for new (‘21st century’) skills and new forms of knowledge development

– Increased benchmarking of learning outcomes– Increasing competition between institutions and

(more importantly) with competing provision7 April 2009 Blackboard Conference 20


• Critical issue 1– Those countries / institutions will be

successful which will be able to appeal to students by diversifying provision and y fy g poffering higher added value

– Increasingly competing market

– Technological innovation is part of the answer



• Critical issue 2:– Will HEI’s be able to sustain their role and

position as dominant producers of knowledge, skills and qualifications?

– Higher education institutions exist because they provide the institutional arrangements for effective and powerful learning environments

– But increasing number of competitors• More effective alternative providers?• Direct skills assessment




The demand side: students

• Are students’ demands for innovative learning environments driving innovation?

• Present-day students are actively using the InternetInternet– Universal home internet access

– 85% of 16-24y olds use Internet (Eurostat)

– Still relatively important variations in use; various profiles



Source: Ferri et al., 2008


• But their expectations on ICT use in teaching & learning are mixed– Still preference for face-to-face teaching with

technology as convenient supporttechnology as convenient support

– Little evidence on shift in students’ demands

– Little evidence of changes in (meta-)cognitive skills

– Highly divided over more advanced technology use in teaching & learning



• Conclusion:– Despite being heavy users, students in general

may not be the driving force for deep innovation in teaching & learning

– But:• There is a growing minority of students willing to

engage in more radical change• The general impact of heavy Web 2.0 (inter)active

use is yet to come• The institutional answer to ‘digital natives’ or ‘new

millennium learners’ can make a huge difference


The supply side: institutions

• Technology adoption by HEI’s in general is impressive, … with the exception of teaching & learning

ICT infrastructures– ICT infrastructures

– Classroom equipment

– Virtual learning environments

– Digital content



• Teaching staff still highly divided– Enthusiasts

– Pragmatists

Sceptics– Sceptics

• Especially in Europe technological innovation is not yet a driver for educational innovation



• Conclusion:– Institutional potential for innovation is still

underdeveloped and underused

– Innovative institutions/teachers still canInnovative institutions/teachers still can ‘make a difference’, still can realise a competitive advantage

– Of critical importance is the institutional commitment to change!


OECD and innovation

• Supporting the political conditions for change and innovation– Analysing trends, challenges and policy

responses• Analytical work of CERI on E-Learning, Open

Educational Resources, New Millennium Learners

– Developing educational R&D– Assessment of learning outcomes: AHELO– Work on innovation and knowledge

management


OECD and innovation

• Supporting the political conditions for change and innovation– University Futures Project

• Book on Demography 2030• Book on Demography 2030

• Book on Technology and higher education

• Book on Globalisation in higher education

• Book on future scenarios for higher education


OECD and innovation

• The OECD Innovation Strategy– Towards an open model of innovation

– Innovation as the answer to survive the economic crisiseconomic crisis

– CERI responsible for:• Education for Innovation

• Innovation of Education


www oecd org/edu/ceri

THANK YOU !

www.oecd.org/edu/ceri


Documents

The future of higher education: Innovate or evaporate! · missions delivery modes teaching & learningmissions, delivery modes, teaching & learning arrangements, etc. –We need more,