The Future of Extreme WeatherThe Future of Extreme Weather

Dr. Jeff MastersDr. Jeff MastersDirector of Meteorology Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc.The Weather Underground, Inc.http://www.wunderground.comhttp://www.wunderground.com

Education: Education: University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan

B.S. in Meteorology, 1982B.S. in Meteorology, 1982

M.S. in Meteorology, 1983M.S. in Meteorology, 1983 Thesis:Thesis: “A Characterization of the Detroit Wintertime Aerosol”“A Characterization of the Detroit Wintertime Aerosol”

Ph.D. in Meteorology, 1997 Ph.D. in Meteorology, 1997 Thesis: “Vertical Transport of Carbon Monoxide by Thesis: “Vertical Transport of Carbon Monoxide by Wintertime Mid-Latitude Cyclones”Wintertime Mid-Latitude Cyclones”

Me

Served as Flight Meteorologist for NOAA’sServed as Flight Meteorologist for NOAA’sAircraft Operations Center, 1986 - 1990Aircraft Operations Center, 1986 - 1990

•Correction of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 AircraftCorrection of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 Aircraft•A Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane GilbertA Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane Gilbert•Wind Measurement From AircraftWind Measurement From Aircraft•Flying Into the Eye of a HurricaneFlying Into the Eye of a Hurricane•Meteorology at BrockportMeteorology at Brockport

Publications:Publications:

My Hurricane Hugo flight: http://www.wunderground.com/education/hugo1.aspMy Hurricane Hugo flight: http://www.wunderground.com/education/hugo1.asp

Will Hurricanes Increase in Will Hurricanes Increase in Frequency and Intensity?Frequency and Intensity?

Costliest U.S. Hurricanes of all timeCostliest U.S. Hurricanes of all time

1. Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL) 2005 3 $133,800,000,000

2. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 $40,000,000,000

3. Ike (TX/LA/MS)* 2008 2 $27, 000,000,000

4. Wilma (FL) 2005 3 $17,100,000,000

5. Rita (LA/TX) 2005 3 $17,100,000,000

5. Charley (FL) 2004 4 $16,500,000,000

6. Ivan (FL/AL) 2004 3 $15,400,000,000

7. Hugo (SC) 1989 4 $15,300,000,000

8. Frances (FL) 2004 2 $9,900,000,000

10. Agnes (NE U.S.) 1972 1 $8,602,500,000

*Ike did an additional $4.4 billion in damage as an extratropical storm

•Expect a 5% increase in hurricane winds per °C of ocean warming (Emanuel, 2005).

•Expected increase in SST by 2100: 1-2 °C.

•Hurricane wind speeds should increase by 5-10%.

•Difference in wind speed between a Cat 3 and Cat 4: 15%.

•Thus, major hurricanes in 2100 should do 1.5 - 3 times more damage than they do now.

The U.S coast is very vulnerable to sea level rise

•1910-1920: NJ coast was exposed to high water levels from extreme storms less than 200 hours per year.

•Early 1990's: Coast was exposed to high water from storms of the same magnitude 700 to 1200 hours per year.

•No increases in storm intensity or frequency that •might account for the increasing high water levels.

•Conclusion: Increase in storm surge exposure of the coast was due to sea-level rise of 1 foot over the 80-year period (Zhang et al.,1997)

Sea level rise will lead to Sea level rise will lead to increased storm surge damageincreased storm surge damage

Are Tornadoes Increasing in Are Tornadoes Increasing in Frequency and Intensity?Frequency and Intensity?

Borden and Cutter, 2008

Hurricane Igor as seen from the International Space Station

2010: A Year of Incredible Weather Events2010: A Year of Incredible Weather Events

Coldest January-FebruaryColdest January-February in Florida since at least 1937in Florida since at least 1937

January 2010: Strongest winter storm January 2010: Strongest winter storm on record wallops Southwest U.S.on record wallops Southwest U.S.

Snowmaggedon: February 2010 Snowmaggedon: February 2010 41 killed, $2.4 billion damage41 killed, $2.4 billion damage

Winter Storm XynthiaWinter Storm Xynthia63 killed, $3 billion damage63 killed, $3 billion damage

Brazilian Tropical Storm AnitaBrazilian Tropical Storm Anita

Warmest and wettest March in Rhode Island historyWarmest and wettest March in Rhode Island history

Rio de Janeiro floods, April 2010Rio de Janeiro floods, April 2010246 killed, $14 billion damage246 killed, $14 billion damage

May 2010 Tennessee floodsMay 2010 Tennessee floods31 killed, $1.5 billion damage31 killed, $1.5 billion damage

Cyclone Phet: 2Cyclone Phet: 2ndnd strongest ever in Arabian Sea strongest ever in Arabian Sea44 killed, $ 0.8 billion damage44 killed, $ 0.8 billion damage

Tropical Storm Agatha hits GuatemalaTropical Storm Agatha hits Guatemala317 killed, $1.1 billion damage317 killed, $1.1 billion damage

China summer floods and landslidesChina summer floods and landslides4245 killed, $51 billion damage4245 killed, $51 billion damage

Monsoon floods cause worst natural disaster in Monsoon floods cause worst natural disaster in Pakistan’s history; 1780 killed, $43 billion damagePakistan’s history; 1780 killed, $43 billion damage

Russian heat wave and droughtRussian heat wave and drought15,800 killed, $15 billion damage15,800 killed, $15 billion damage

Hurricane Igor: Newfoundland’s worst hurricane in memoryHurricane Igor: Newfoundland’s worst hurricane in memory4 killed, $ 0.2 billion damage4 killed, $ 0.2 billion damage

Hurricane Karl: first major hurricane ever in Bay of CampecheHurricane Karl: first major hurricane ever in Bay of Campeche22 killed, $5.6 billion damage22 killed, $5.6 billion damage

Cyclone Giri, strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit MyanmarCyclone Giri, strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit Myanmar157 killed, $ 0.4 billion damage157 killed, $ 0.4 billion damage

Super Typhoon Megi: 8Super Typhoon Megi: 8thth strongest tropical cyclone in world history strongest tropical cyclone in world history69 killed, $ 0.7 billion damage69 killed, $ 0.7 billion damage

October 22, 955 mb super-cyclone:October 22, 955 mb super-cyclone:Strongest non-coastal storm in U.S. historyStrongest non-coastal storm in U.S. history

Hurricane Tomas: latest hurricane on record so far southHurricane Tomas: latest hurricane on record so far south41 killed, $ 0.6 billion damage41 killed, $ 0.6 billion damage

Floods cause worst natural disaster in Colombia’s historyFloods cause worst natural disaster in Colombia’s history300+ dead, $5 billion damage300+ dead, $5 billion damage

Queensland, Australia floodsQueensland, Australia floods20 killed, $10 – 30 billion damage20 killed, $10 – 30 billion damage

January 2011: Rio de Janeiro floodJanuary 2011: Rio de Janeiro floodDeadliest natural disaster in Brazil’s historyDeadliest natural disaster in Brazil’s history900+ killed, $1.2 billion damage900+ killed, $1.2 billion damage

January 2011: 100-year flood in Sri LankaJanuary 2011: 100-year flood in Sri Lanka43 killed, $0.5 billion damage43 killed, $0.5 billion damage

Arctic sea ice extent, Sep. 19, 2010, 3Arctic sea ice extent, Sep. 19, 2010, 3rdrd lowest on record lowest on record

2010: A year of remarkable climate 2010: A year of remarkable climate eventsevents

2010: Earth’s warmest2010: Earth’s warmestyear in history year in history

2010: Earth’s wettest year in history2010: Earth’s wettest year in history

Winter of 2009 – 2010: most Winter of 2009 – 2010: most extreme Arctic Oscillationextreme Arctic Oscillationpattern in the 145-year record pattern in the 145-year record leads to severe winter in Europeleads to severe winter in Europeand Eastern U.S., but Canada’sand Eastern U.S., but Canada’swarmest and driest winter everwarmest and driest winter ever

Snow covers the U.K., January 7, 2010

A strong El Niño and a strong La Niña in the same yearA strong El Niño and a strong La Niña in the same year

Amazon’s 2Amazon’s 2ndnd 100-year drought in 5 years 100-year drought in 5 years

2010: Greenland’s warmest 2010: Greenland’s warmest year in historyyear in history

Greenland’s Petermann Glacier calves 100-square mile ice islandGreenland’s Petermann Glacier calves 100-square mile ice island

Is the weather getting more extreme?Is the weather getting more extreme?

The National Climatic Data Center’s The National Climatic Data Center’s Climate Extremes Index (CEI):Climate Extremes Index (CEI):

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cei/cei.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cei/cei.html

1.1. Percentage of U.S. with max temperatures much below normal Percentage of U.S. with max temperatures much below normal and much above normal.and much above normal.

2.2. Percentage of U.S. with min temperatures much below normal Percentage of U.S. with min temperatures much below normal and much above normal. and much above normal.

3.3. Percentage of U.S. in severe drought and with severe moisture Percentage of U.S. in severe drought and with severe moisture surplus.surplus.

4.4. Percentage of U.S. with a much greater than normal proportion Percentage of U.S. with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events.tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events.

5.5. Percentage U.S. with a much greater than normal number of Percentage U.S. with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and without precipitation.days with precipitation and without precipitation.

Is U.S. weather getting more extreme?Is U.S. weather getting more extreme?

•Yes. NOAA (Gleason et al., 2008) concluded that the percentage of the U.S. seeing extreme temperatures and precipitation has generally been increasing since the early 1970s.

•These increases were most pronounced in summer.

•No trends were noted in winter.

•4 of the 10 most extreme years in the past century occurred since 1996.

Sixteen Potential $10 billion+ U.S. Sixteen Potential $10 billion+ U.S. Weather Disasters of the Next 30 YearsWeather Disasters of the Next 30 Years

$10 billion+ U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980

Rank Disaster Year Deaths Damage (2007 dollars)

1. Hurricane Katrina, LA/MS/AL/FL 2005 1833 $133,800,000,000

2. Midwest/Eastern Drought 1988 7,500 $71,200,000,000

3. Midwest/Eastern Drought 1980 10,000 $55,400,000,000

4. Hurricane Andrew, FL/LA 1992 26 $40,000,000,000

5. Midwest Floods 1993 48 $30,200,000,000

6. Hurricane Ike, TX/LA/MS 2008 112 $27,000,000,000

7. Hurricane Wilma, FL 2005 35 $17,100,000,000

8. Hurricane Rita, LA/TX 2005 119 $17,100,000,000

9. Hurricane Charley, FL 2004 15 $16,322,000,000

10. Midwest Floods 2008 24 $15,000,000,000

11. Hurricane Ivan, FL/AL 2004 57 $15,400,000,000

12. 30-State Drought 2002 0 $11,400,000,000Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/reports/billion/disasters2009.pdf

16) Pacific Northwest Extratropical Storm16) Pacific Northwest Extratropical StormProbability: 20%Probability: 20%

Damage from the 1962 Columbus Day Storm

NYC LaGuardia Airport after the November 1950 Nor’easter

15) Northeast U.S. Extratropical Storm15) Northeast U.S. Extratropical StormProbability: 40%Probability: 40%

14) Southeast U.S. Hurricane14) Southeast U.S. HurricaneProbability: 80%Probability: 80%

Hurricane Floyd (1999) hits North Carolina; $7.4 billion damage

Lake Lanier, Georgia in October, 2007

13) Southeast U.S. Drought13) Southeast U.S. DroughtProbability: 60%Probability: 60%

12) Texas Hurricane12) Texas HurricaneProbability: 80%Probability: 80%

1900 Galveston Hurricane damage

11) New Orleans Hurricane11) New Orleans HurricaneProbability: 60%Probability: 60%

New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, 2005

10) Tampa Bay Hurricane10) Tampa Bay HurricaneProbability: 30%Probability: 30%

Bayshore Drive, Tampa FL, after the 1921 HurricaneBayshore Drive, Tampa FL, after the 1921 Hurricane

9) EF-5 Tornado hits major city9) EF-5 Tornado hits major cityProbability: 10%Probability: 10%

Greensburg, Kansas after the May 2007 tornadoGreensburg, Kansas after the May 2007 tornado

8) Upper Mississippi/Missouri River Flood8) Upper Mississippi/Missouri River FloodProbability: 90%Probability: 90%

Waterloo, Iowa during the June 2008 floodWaterloo, Iowa during the June 2008 flood

7) New England Hurricane7) New England HurricaneProbability: 40%Probability: 40%

Rhode island Yacht Club during Hurricane Carol, 1954Rhode island Yacht Club during Hurricane Carol, 1954

6) Midwest Drought6) Midwest DroughtProbability: 90%Probability: 90%

Texas Drought, 2006Texas Drought, 2006

5) Miami Hurricane5) Miami HurricaneProbability: 60%Probability: 60%

Miami Beach, 1926 HurricaneMiami Beach, 1926 Hurricane

4) California/Southwest U.S. Drought4) California/Southwest U.S. DroughtProbability: 90%Probability: 90%

San Bruno, California Fires, June 2008San Bruno, California Fires, June 2008

3) Lower Mississippi Flood causes failure 3) Lower Mississippi Flood causes failure of the Old River Control Structureof the Old River Control StructureProbability: 40%Probability: 40%

Old River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal waterOld River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal water

June 4, 2004 levee breach in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta

2) California ARkSTORM Flood2) California ARkSTORM FloodProbability: 30%Probability: 30%

1) Catastrophic Geomagnetic Storm1) Catastrophic Geomagnetic StormProbability: 30%Probability: 30%

X-22 Class Solar Flare of April 2, 2001—Strongest Solar Flare on RecordX-22 Class Solar Flare of April 2, 2001—Strongest Solar Flare on Record

Transformer at Salem Nuclear PlantTransformer at Salem Nuclear Plantfried by geomagnetic storm in 1989fried by geomagnetic storm in 1989

A geomagnetic storm like the Carrington Event of 1859 or the 1921 storm A geomagnetic storm like the Carrington Event of 1859 or the 1921 storm would likely cause a collapse of the U.S. power system lasting yearswould likely cause a collapse of the U.S. power system lasting years

Predictions for the 2011 hurricane seasonPredictions for the 2011 hurricane season

Seasonal Predictions, December 2010:Seasonal Predictions, December 2010:Dr. Bill Gray: Dr. Bill Gray: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes TSR, Inc: TSR, Inc: 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes Climatology:Climatology: 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes Since 1995: Since 1995: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes

Since 1995—number of Atlantic named storms, Since 1995—number of Atlantic named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricaneshurricanes, and intense hurricanes

5 El Niño years: 1997 8,3,1 2002 12,4,2 Average: 11, 5, 3 2004 15,9,6

2006 10,5,22009 9,3,2

6 La Niña years: 1995 19,11,51998 14,10,3

Average: 14, 9, 4 1999 12,8,52000 15,8,32007 15,6,22010 19,12,5

5 Neutral years: 1996 13,9,62001 15,9,4

Average: 18, 10, 5 2003 16,7,32005 28,15,72008 16,8,5

NOAA CFS Forecast made Dec. 30, 2010NOAA CFS Forecast made Dec. 30, 2010

The fearless wunderground.com 2011 The fearless wunderground.com 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast:Atlantic hurricane season forecast:

• 16 named storms16 named storms• 9 hurricanes9 hurricanes• 4 intense hurricanes4 intense hurricanes

May the steering currents be your friend!May the steering currents be your friend!