The Future of Biodiversity

International Diversity DayPalacio dos Bandeirantes

Sao Paulo, BrazilMay 22, 2010

Thomas E. Lovejoy

Biodiversity Chair, The Heinz Center

Professor, George Mason University

Washington, D.C.

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR SCIENCE,

ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Exploring Life on Earth

Modelling the numbers of species described per

year, per taxonomist, predicts that 18% more

Rubiaceae remain unknown — a number similar to the average (15%) for other plant families.

From Joppa, Robers & Pimm (under review)

20% of all known plants are threatened with extinction and the remaining 15% will amost surely be

so, bringing the true percentage to ~30%

Psychotria

observed

predicted

Knowledge Services

The information behind

GBO-3:

• 110 National Reports

• Biodiversity Indicators

Partnership

• Biodiversity Futures Study

• 500 scientific papers

• Open review process

GBO-3 is an output of the processes

under the Convention.

Parties to the Convention, other

Governments, and observer

organizations have shaped the Outlook

GBO-3 has been prepared by the

Secretariat of the Convention on

Biological Diversity, in close collaboration

UNEP-WCMC and Diversitas.

The production of GBO-3 was enabled by

financial contributions from Canada, the

European Union, Germany, Japan, Spain

and the United Kingdom, as well as

UNEP.

Structure

• Biodiversity in 2010

• Biodiversity Futures for the 21st

Century

• Towards a Strategy for Reducing

Biodiversity Loss

“to achieve by 2010 a significant

reduction of the current rate of

biodiversity loss at the global, regional

and national level as a contribution to

poverty alleviation and to the benefit of

all life on Earth”

2010 Biodiversity Target

• No sub-target completely achieved

• Most indicators negative

• No government claims success

• Direct pressures constant or increasing

The 2010 Biodiversity Target has not been met

Source: WWF/ZSL

• The global Living Planet Index

(LPI), has declined by more than

30% since 1970,

• The Tropical LPI has declined by

almost 60%.

• The Temperate LPI showed an

increase of 15%, reflecting the

recovery of some species

populations in temperate regions

Source: WWF/ZSL

• The Red List Index (RLI) for all these species groups is decreasing.

• Coral species are moving most rapidly towards greater extinction risk

• Amphibians are, on average, the group most threatened.

Source: IUCN

Mammals

Mammals, birds & amphibians

Birds

Plants

Plants

Plants & animals

0,1

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

Background extinction rate

Red list Jetz van Vuuren Malcom Thomas

E/MSY

Species extinction

Recent pastDistant past 2050

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GBO3 – Terrestrial Scenarios

Projected Terrestrial Species Extinctions

Land use

& Climate

Change

Land use

& Climate

Change

Climate

Change

Climate

Change

Plants &

vertebrates

Sp

ecie

s E

xti

ncti

on

Rate

sO

bs

erv

ed

fo

r p

as

t o

r “c

om

mit

ted

” f

or

futu

re

Livestock breeds at risk

Source: FAO

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GBO3 – Marine Scenarios

“Fishing down the food web”

High Marine trophic index Low

Trends in habitats are varied but show declines over all:

•Wetlands, salt marshes,

coral reefs, seagrass beds

and sea ice continue to

decline

•Extensive fragmentation of

forests and rivers

• Mangrove decline slowing

(except in Asia)

•The condition of many

terrestrial habitats is

deteriorating (degrading)

Source: NSIDC

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GBO3 – Marine Scenarios

Scenarios for Marine Fisheries

Profit & subsidies = “Business as usual”

Reduced trawling

“Ecosystem rebuilding”

Ma

rin

e t

rop

hic

in

dex –

Pacif

ic o

cean

Dr. Svante August Arrhenius

1859-1927

Source: Wallace Broecker

Analysis of a Greenland

ice core oxygen isotope proxy

Earlier flowering date

Source: Camille Parmesan

Spring comes about 2 weeks earlier

• Across the USA, tree

swallows are nesting 9

days earlier than 40

years ago

• Laying date is highly

correlated with May

temperature

Shifts in the

distribution of

species and biomes

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Edith’s Checkerspot

• Range shift northward and upward during the 20th century

• Most extinctions in south and low

elevations

• In Europe, mean average temperature has

increased by 0.8°C during the 20th

century.

• 63% of the 35 studied butterfly species

displayed a shift in their distribution area

toward the North of 35 to 200 km.

Parmesan et al. 1999, 2006

Argynnis paphia

Dark Orange = historical distribution

Light Orange = current distribution

Source : BBC World News

Biodiversity changes: possible effects of climate change

© WWF-Canon / Michèle Dépraz

Increasing number of dry days

Source: J.A. Pounds et al 2005

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The Arctic

Biome Shift

• Large biome shifts

are ”very likely” to

occur

• Aggressive climate

mitigation

substantially reduces

species and biome

range shifts

Figure: LPJ global

vegetation model

projections for 2100 from

IPCC (2007)

Low global

warming

High global warming

Green = shrub or tree

cover gain

Sugar Maple range projections

by 5 GCMs with 2 x CO2

Source: A.M. Prasad and Iverson, L.R: www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas/index.html

Temperature Increase

876543210N

umb

er o

f Pre

dict

ed E

xtin

ctio

ns

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

S-curve fit: adj. r2 = 0.997 p = 0.001

18356465N =

Temperature Scenario

+7.0+5.0+3.5+1.0Current

Cor

e H

abi

tat R

ema

inin

g (%

)110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

0

Spatial Pattern of

Species RichnessDark red = high species richness

Species Extinctions

Mean Range Size

Williams et al. 2003. Proc Roy Soc Lond. B: 270:1887-1892

Slide courtesy of Stephen Williams

Ecosystems disassemble and species

reassemble into new ecosystems

Source: G.M. Hewitt and Nichols, R.A. 2005

Protected areas increasing …

Source: UNEP-WCMC

Source: UNEP-WCMC

…but large areas still under-represented

Source: UNEP-WCMC

Amazon loss slowing in Brazil

Source: INPE

State Pressure Response

Source:

Butchart

etal 2010

Trends shown by agreed indicators of progress towards the 2010

biodiversity target:

• Projections show continuing and accelerating extinctions, habitat loss,

changes in distribution and abundance of biodiversity

• High risk of dramatic biodiversity loss and degradation of services from

tipping points

•Loss preventable and even reversible with strong, urgent action

Key Findings:

What is a tipping point?

Self-perpetuating

Threshold

Long lasting/hard to reverse

Time lag

Courtesy of NOAA/NCAR

Tipping Point – Amazon dieback

•Widespread shift from forest to savanna

resulting from the Interaction of

deforestation, climate change and fires

•Becomes more likely at 20%-30%

deforestation

•Self-perpetuating

•Regional rainfall and global climate impacts,

massive biodiversity loss

Current Path Alternative Path

•Keep deforestation below 20%-30% of

original forest area

•Minimize use of fire for clearing

•Keep global climate warming below 2-3

degrees

Tipping Points – Freshwater eutrophication

•Reduce nutrient inputs from sewage,

detergents and agriculture

•Reforestation of watersheds

•Restoration of wetlands

•Economic incentives to close nutrient

cycle on farms

•The buildup of nutrients from fertilizers

and sewage shifts freshwater bodies

into a eutrophic state causing:

•Low oxygen levels and widespread

kills of plants, fish, invertebrates

•Loss of nutrition from fisheries, toxic

blooms make water unfit for drinking or

recreation

Current Path Alternative Path

Tipping Points – Coral reef collapse

Current Path Alternative Path

•Bleaching severe with temperature rise

greater than ca. 2oC

•Ocean acidification prevents corals

forming skeletons

•Reefs become degraded and algae-

dominated

•Livelihood threat to hundreds of millions

through loss of fisheries and tourism

Reduce local stressors including:

•Destructive fishing practices

•Coastal pollution

•Over-exploitation of herbivores such as

sea urchins and fish

•Strict climate mitigation to keep CO2

levels below 450 ppm and 2oC.

Global Biodiversity Outlook 3A map of key biodiversity tipping points

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Global Warming and Coral Reefs

Climate warming is already having widespread negative impacts on coral

reefs

Before bleaching

After bleaching

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Global Warming and Coral ReefsClimate warming is already having widespread negative impacts on coral

reefs

IPCC WGII 2007

Maximum monthly mean sea surface temperature for 1998, 2002 and 2005, and locations of reported coral bleaching (data sources: NOAA

Coral Reef Watch (http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/) and Reefbase (http://www.reefbase.org/)).

•At today’s level of 387ppm CO2, reefs are seriously

declining and time-lagged effects will result in their

continued demise with parallel impacts on other

marine and coastal ecosystems.

•Proposals to limit CO2 levels to 450ppm will not

prevent the catastrophic loss of coral reefs from the

combined effects of climate change and ocean

acidification.

•To ensure the long-term viability of coral reefs

atmospheric carbon dioxide level must be reduced

significantly below 350ppm.

Royal Society Meeting,

July 6th 2009

Deteriorating chemical condition for coral reefs

0 1 2 3 4

ΩaragoniteOptimal for

coral reefsCorrosive to

coral reefs

5

In the pre-industrial ocean, 99.8% of coral reefs were

near water with Ωaragonite > 3.25

Under a 550 ppm atmosphere, < 2% of coral reefs will be

near water with Ωaragonite > 3.25

(1) Arctic sea-ice

(2) Greenland ice-sheet stability

(3) Antarctic ice-sheet stability

(4) Major ecosystem disruption

Why is a CO2 target of 450ppm too high ?

What is a “safe” level?

James Hansen,

et al., 2008

350 ppm

Broadening action on

biodiversity

There is a greater

range of options than

previously recognized

Source: Leadley and Pereira etal 2010

Business as usual

Carbon tax including land

use

Carbon tax on fossil

fuels and industry only

Scenarios for land use

Source: Wise etal

2009

Address climate change and biodiversity loss in close co-ordination, and with equal priority, if the

most severe impacts of each are to be avoided.

•Greater efficiency in use of land, energy and fresh water to meet growing

demand

•Use of market incentives and avoidance of perverse subsidies

•Strategic planning

•Restoration of ecosystems

•Equitable sharing of benefits from use of and access to genetic resources and

associated traditional knowledge

•Support and facilitate local action

•Communication, education and awareness-raising

Key strategy elements:

Increase natural connectivity to facilitate

species movement

Adaptation: Revise conservation strategies

Minimize climate change impacts by

reducing other stresses, e.g., siltation

on coral reefs

Protected Areas and future biogeography

climate change shifts location

of suitable habitat

marine reserves support

population growth in neighboring

areas

Source: Hannah et al. 2002; PISCO 2002

Limit Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

20% of Annual Emissions come from deforestation

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2007)

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)

1.5 Pg C y-1

+7.5 Pg C y-1

Atmosphere

46%

4.2 Pg y-1

Land

29%

2.6 Pg y-1

Oceans

26%

2.3 Pg y-1

Long atmospheric residence times

for greenhouse gases

Origin of land

plantsExpansion of

angiosperms

Present-day CO2

The Role of Life Processes

Over the past three centuries, ecosystems have lost 200-250 billion

tons of carbon

Planetary Engineering Using Ecosystems

CO2 PPM

Time

280

The Role of Forests

Photo courtesy USDA NRCS

Restoring Grazing Land

Photos: United States Department of Agriculture—Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Modify Agriculture to Build up Soil Carbon

68

TEEB – Final Reports – Nagoya, Oct 2010

D0

D3

D4

D1

D2

Citizen & Consumer

Ownership

Business Risks

& Opportunities

Decision Support

for Administrators

Policy Evaluation

for Policy-Makers

Science & Economics

Foundations, Policy

Costs, & Costs of Inaction

TEEB: The Economics of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

TEEB D0, Chapter 5

“Economic valuation of ecosystem services and biodiversity can make explicit to

society in general and policy making in particular, that biodiversity and ecosystem

services are scarce and that their depreciation or degradation has associated

costs to society.

If these costs are not imputed, then policy would be misguided and society would

be worse off due to misallocation of resources.”

Shrimp Farm

private

profits less

subsidies

Net of public

costs of

restoration

needed

after 5 years

private

profits

Mangroves

0

10000

US$

/ha/yr

private profits

5000

If public wealth is included, the “trade-off” choice

changes completely…..

$584ha

$1220ha

$9632ha

$584ha

-ve $11,172ha

$12,392ha

Source: Barbier et al, 2007

After

Adding

Public

Benefits

From

mangroves

Based only on private gain, the

“trade-off” choice favours

conversion…..

Exceptional Returns from Ecosystem Restoration…

The action taken over the next

decade or two will determine

whether the relatively stable

environmental conditions on which

human civilization has depended for

the past 10,000 years will continue

beyond this century.

If we fail to use this opportunity,

many ecosystems on the planet will

move into new, unprecedented

states in which the capacity to

provide for the needs of present and

future generations is highly

uncertain.

Re-Greening the Emerald Planet

For further information

on Global Biodiversity

Outlook 3 and related

prodcuts please see:

www.cbd.int/GBO3