© 2016 Nokia1

The Future of All Things and the

Creation of Time

Marcus Weldon

President of Bell Labs & CTO of Nokia

2 © Nokia 2016

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, The Internet of Things: Mapping the Value Beyond the Hype, June 2015

Future of automated systems, platforms, infra

3 © Nokia 2016

Ways to save/create time

1) Change Time: Use differences in gravity

and velocity

2) Change Lifetime: Discover “Fountain of

Youth” or bioengineered equivalent

3) Change Usage of Time: This talk

© 2016 Nokia4

Human value: Time

Free Wifi

t

t

© 2016 Nokia5

Business value: Time

Pro·duc·tiv·i·ty (noun): the effectiveness of productive effort, especially in industry, as measured in terms of the rate of output per unit of input

𝑠𝑠−1 → t

1.84

2.41

1.771.79

2.82

1.62

(1.0)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

1870-1920 1920-1970 1970-2014

Output per person Output per hour

Source: Robert Gordon, The rise and fall of American growth (adapted by Mark Gordon, Chief Economist, E&Y)

% C

hang

e P

er Y

ear

© Nokia 20166

We have continuously created tools to augment our physical abilities…and save time

Thinking time….

X 100 X 1000X 500 X 5000

𝑠𝑠−1 → t

© Nokia 20167

We have created tools to increase discovery to save time (and waste time?)

Thinking time….

X 10 - X 1000 ?

D → t

© Nokia 20168

Communicator

Smartphone

Holodeck

Virtual Reality

Replicator

3D Printer

Star Trek thinking time….

d, E → t

Decreasing distance to reduce waste/energy and save time

© Nokia 20169

Transporter Tricorder

Star Trek thinking time….

Should decrease distance and increase knowledge to save time…but this remains to be done

d, K → t

© Nokia 201610

Need to interface digital & physical realms…to decrease distance and waste, and create time

Thinking time….

© Nokia 201611

Need to augment our mental abilities…to increase knowledge and save time

Thinking time….

© 2016 Nokia12

The coming revolution

Tech. Revolution Enabling Technology Connectivity

Financial (1600 − 1740) Stocks & Bonds Banking & Stock Market Infrastructure

1st Industrial (1780 − 1840) Steam Engine & Iron Production Rail and Shipping Networks

2nd Industrial (1880 − 1920) Steel & Chemicals Extended Transportation NetworksElectricity & Telecom Networks

Scientific-Technical (1940 − 1970) Analog & Digital Signal processing Digital Communications Networks

Information (1985 − 2015) The Web, Cloud computing & Mobile devices Internet & Broadband Access

Automation of Everything (2015 −) Digital interfaces & Data analysis Future X Network

Technological Revolution (def): Interconnection of new systems and technologies

We arehere

+ capacity to profoundly transform economies & society

© 2016 Nokia13

Industrial Revolution

Consumer Evolution

The new digital eraDigitization, delivery & sharing of:

Digitization, distribution & optimization of:

© 2016 Nokia14

Latency matters … reducing time to save time

0.1 1 10 100

10

100

1000

10000(km)

RTT(ms)

Light propagation

Electric grid control

Autonomous vehicles

vRAN

Haptic VR & tele-operation

Cloud-assisted driving

BW-efficient 360° video

Hi-Res cloud gaming

4K video streaming

VoIP/video conferencing

Web page load

Vestibulo-ocular reflex

IM chat & bots

High-Frequency trading

Sprint start

0.25

1

2

4

8

7

5 20

10 100

10 40

20 90

120

50 1900

100

150

150

50

1000

4000

ICP

clou

dC

ore

clou

dE

dge

clou

d

Service latency requirements (in ms)

Max tolerable networking delay

Max application delay for processing

Human response times (for reference)

We arehere

15 © Nokia 2016

Bandwidth matters …

UHD & Unicast388

887

3,360

5,903

GB/User/Mo

2020

2016

2025

171

272

405

490

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

GB/User/Mo

92 GB/user/Month

VR/AR

We arehere

~5x

~60x

© 2016 Nokia16

Latency & bandwidth matter … for new digital experiences that save time

Edge CloudCore Cloud

1ms10ms100ms1s10s 100us 10us

1kbps

10kbps

100kbps

1Mbps

10Mbps

100Mbps

1Gbps

10GbpsCloud RAN

360° video (hi-res)

Electric grid control

Cloud-assisted driving

Autonomous vehicles

Comms & Chatbots

4k Video streaming

Sensors

Home Sensors

Haptic VR

Remotetraining

360° video (free viewpoint)

Remote control vehiclesHD Video

streaming

360° video (lo-res)

Ban

dwid

th

Latency

Video VR/AR

People & Things

SystemControl

Virtual RAN

360° VR/AR

We arehere

17 © Nokia 2016

Perspective on wireless evolution

Source: Bell Labs, adapted from F. Boccardi, T. Marzetta, IEEE Comms. Magazine, 201402

2G-4G: “People & Video”

Ultra-broadband: “VR/AR”

Ultra-low latency: “System Control”

Forbidden region: “Shannon Limit”

Pre-5GR1

R2

Ultra-narrowband: “Things”

R3

R4

R5

© 2016 Nokia18

Summary: The 100yr, 100x shift

Enabled by: Local real estate, fiber, trust, optimized HW/SW network platforms , programmability, privacy preserving, & secure

Enabled by: Global reach and power; SW platforms for business model disruption, stability, non-privacy preserving & inadequately secure

We arehere

ComputeTech

IPNetworks

Broadband Access

ComputeTech

IPNetworks

Broadband Access

Core Cloud Edge Cloud

100s ms, 10’s Mbps1 day, $1000, 10B

1ms, 1Gbps10 years, $1, 1000B+

Devices Things

© 2016 Nokia19

The New Architecture for New Value

ConvergedEdge Cloud2 Software defined,

end-end

Smart Network Fabric3

Universal Adaptive Core

4 Access agnosticconverged core

modular, decomposednetwork functions

Common data layer

Programmable Network OS

5Dynamiccustomerservices

Dynamicnetwork optimization

Management &

OrchestrationSDN NFV

Multi-operatorfederation

self-optimizedcoverage & capacity

MassiveScale Access

1

Long fibers

AccessRemote

Shortwaves & wires

Digital Value Platforms

7 ANP, CSP, ICP, Vertical apps

External data sources

Open APIs

Augmented Cognition Systems6 Machine

learningAnalytics

Humans& Machines

Dynamic Data Security

8

• New trust framework• Ecosystem sharing• Mass edge monitoring

© 2016 Nokia20

The Future of All Things and the Creation of Time

Analog Things

Create Time (by decreasing distance and

increasing knowledge

Digital Things

21 © Nokia 2016

The New Value (2): Global-Local Equilibrium

Global ForcesLocal ForcesOptimized Discovery of Digital Content

Massive Brand Power

Generalization

Personal Data Monetization

Economies of Cloud Platform Scale

Optimized Delivery of Digital Content

Trusted Brand Relationship

Personalization

Personal Privacy Protection

Economies of Secure Network Platform

© 2016 Nokia22

0

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Diffusion[%]

1951 2030

Physical Systems Digital Systems

The New Value (3): Digital Productivity

23 © Nokia 2016 <Change information classification in footer>