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The future lambscapeAlex BallProgram Manager, Meat & Livestock Australia
State of the industry today
• Flock size is recovering• Good returns over past 5-7 years• Strong sense of achievement• Confidence is high• Land use competition• Next phase of change about to begin
Relative real price trends
1980-...1985-...
1990-...1995-...
2000-...2005-...
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Beef
Lamb
Wool
Wool and lamb income (real)
1980-1984 1985-1989 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009$0.00
$10,000.00
$20,000.00
$30,000.00
$40,000.00
$50,000.00
$60,000.00
$70,000.00
Wool IncomeLamb Income
The challenges
The customer
The peopleThe sheep
Leading the supply of premium lamb to
the world
• Nutritional and quality value• Environmental footprint• Water efficiency• Welfare compliance/requirements
• Labour – the handbrake to growth• Increased competition for resources• Information management• More complex terms of trade
• Genetic/genomic evolution• Managing key diseases• Balancing yield and eating quality• Optimum ewe size
In 10 years time
Value and productivity doubled over the past 10 years
• New generation of producers• Three generations of sheep to affect
change• Only 5-10 million more sheep
– can this happen again?
The industry in 10 years
• 60% of product to export markets• High cost product, high cost compliance • Essential to mixed farming enterprises• Limited intensive feeding for eating quality• National and international welfare standards• Natural resource management targets• Community and consumer driven
The sheep in 10 years
Eating and nutritional quality - integral to all breeding programs
Consumer Tested over 2 years200 sires
1,477 lambs tested (+ Dorpers)Short loin and topside as a grill
From a Fail to a 5* productAll at $38 kg
The sheep in 10 years
Eating and nutritional quality - integral to all breeding programs
• Breeds morphed into Brands• 150% lambing and 95% survival• 500 grams per day growth rates• 45 kilograms at 8-10 months• Genomic selection imbedded• Non-visual traits dominating selection
Improving productivity
Ewe Single Twin Change in Efficiency
Weight 60kg 60kg
Lambs 1 2
Lamb weight 55kg 45kg
Total weight 55kg 90kg
Weight /kg ewe
0.91 kg 1.5 kg 65%
Weight /dse 34.3 kg 37.5 kg 9%
Management in 10 yearsMore complex, more opportunities
• Focused on pastures and pasture utilisation• Focussed on resource allocation
• Water and resource allocation (kg/ha/ml h20)
• 90% of decisions based on info from remote monitoring tools
People in 10 years
More sheep, less people, more complex decisions
• Manage and use information• Embrace technology• Linked to product and brands
The producer “action” pattern
Knowledge20%
Decisions(Tactical and
Strategic)70%
Data (easy)10%
Change now for the future
Consumer and community satisfaction – know what they want, when and why
Change now for the future
Consumer and community satisfaction – know what they want, when and why
• Perform to market requirements• Measure everything• Resource management • Invest in technology• Invest in yourself to transform• Information into decisions
The future lambscape