The Future July 8, 2008 Slide 2 Short History of the Future The
Historicists The Professional Prophets The Amateur Prophets Slide 3
The Historicists Historicism: the belief that there exist timeless
laws that govern the development of human history (Popper, `The
Poverty of Historicism) Greek and Hindu myth Vico Hegel and Marx
Spengler and Toynbee Slide 4 Mythology The world cycles through
four ages We are now living in the worst age, or kali yuga Slide 5
Vicos Cyclic History Giambattista Vico (1668-1744) Saw history as
the succession of four ages: the divine, the heroic, the human, and
the ricorso. Slide 6 Hegel (1770-1831) History is the working-out
of a dialectical process, which takes us from primitive despotism,
through democracy, to absolute monarchy. Slide 7 Slide 8 Karl Marx
(1818-1883) Replaced Hegels dialectic with dialectical materialism:
societys form is determined by the means of production used. Slide
9 Karl Marx (1818-1883) Dialectical materialism takes society
through a fixed sequence of stages: savagery, barbarism, feudalism,
capitalism, socialism and communism. Each stage, except the last,
is characterised by the dominance of a particular class. Slide 10
Karl Marx (1818-1883) Impressive success: the Communist Manifesto
(1848) predicted revolutions that would occur fifty to a hundred
years later. Less impressive: doctrine of the immiseration of the
proletariat. Slide 11 Untergang des Abendlands Slide 12 Summer
Earliest urban/civil societies; aristocrats vs. monarch Spring
Feudalism; Nobility vs. priesthood Autumn Aristocrats vs. bourgeois
Winter Materialism, non-symbolic art, democracy Slide 13 Untergang
des Abendlands Oswald Spengler, 1880-1936 All societies pass
through fixed stages, ending in culture, civilization and decline.
Western society is just entering the stage of decline. Slide 14
Arnold Toynbees A Study of History (1934-1961) Civilizations grow
as they respond to challenges, decline as they fail to respond.
``Civilizations die of suicide, not murder. Slide 15 Popper on
Historicism Although history should be purely descriptive, most
historicists seem to take it as a prescription for action: ``Its
good to move things in the direction theyre bound to go. Slide 16
Popper on Historicism The historicist project is doomed to fail,
since one major determinant of the form of society is technology,
and we cant predict future technology (if we could, it would be
todays technology). Slide 17 Popper on Historicism Historicists may
deny that there are timeless laws of human nature. But many
examples exist, including Lord Actons dictum: ``You cannot give a
man power over other men without tempting him to misuse it --a
temptation which roughly increases with the amount of power
wielded, and which very few are capable of resisting. Slide 18 The
Professional Prophets 1. Herman Kahn and the Hudson Institute 2.
Limits to Growth 3. The popular prophets: Alvin Toffler, `Future
Shock John Naisbitt, `Megatrends Slide 19 Slide 20 Herman Kahn and
the Hudson Institute `Things to Come: thinking about the Seventies
and Eighties (1972) ``There will be nuclear-powered aircraft,
weighing thousands or tens of thousands of tons. Slide 21 Slide 22
Herman Kahn and the Hudson Institute ``The great globe itself is in
a rapidly maturing crisis -- attributable to the fact that the
environment in which technological progress must occur has become
both undersized and under- organisedin the years between now and
1980, the crisis will probably develop far beyond all earlier
patterns (from `Things to Come, quoting von Neumann, 1955, Fortune)
Slide 23 Herman Kahn and the Hudson Institute (From `The Next 200
Years, 1976): `By 2000, a quarter of mankind will live in
post-industrial society, in which the task of procuring the
necessities of life has become trivially easy. Virtually everyone
will be rich and devote their leisure to cultured pursuits. ``More
than two-thirds of humanity will earn more than $11,000/year Slide
24 Herman Kahn and the Hudson Institute (From `The Resourceful
Earth, 1984): ``Fish catches are resuming their long upward trend.
``There is no sign of climate change. ``There is no evidence of
species loss. Slide 25 Limits to Growth (1972) A range of computer
models, extrapolating existing trends, showed global catastrophe
approaching within the next few decades (similar results were
obtained by the Ehrlichs.) Slide 26 Slide 27 Slide 28 The Popular
Prophets: Alvin Toffler Slide 29 ``As we hurtle towards
super-industrialism, a new ethos emerges in which other goals
supplant those of economic welfare ``One of the healthiest
phenomena has been the sudden proliferation of organisations
dedicated to the study of the future. ``To improve education there
should be a `council of the future in every school and community.
``There should be whole new curricula, designed by futurists
(`Future Shock, 1970) Slide 30 Naisbitt -- Megatrends Slide 31
Trend 2: the Human Potential movement will grow in pace with
increased use of computers Trend 4: Companies will move from
short-term planning to long-term planning Slide 32 Criticisms of
the Professional Prophets: 1.You cant extrapolate a chaotic process
2.The sum of a chaotic process and a linear process is a chaotic
process 3.The `closed world problem: Slide 33 Slide 34 Slide 35
Criticism of the Professional Prophets 4. Evident self-interest:
Repeated emphasis on the growing importance of futurology Who funds
the Hudson Institute? Slide 36 The Amateur Prophets Science fiction
and movies of this and the previous century: 1. In the future,
everyone will dress alike. (Metropolis, Star Trek, `We by Zamiatin
`Brave New World by Aldous Huxley) Slide 37 Slide 38 The Amateur
Prophets 2. Humanity will evolve into two sub-species: an effete
class of owners, and a degraded class of workers. (Metropolis,
Brave New World, The Time Machine) Slide 39 Slide 40 The Amateur
Prophets 3. Application of the most recent technology will lead to
a change in the moral character of mankind. ``That airplanes, by
linking the Earth, will bring about lasting peace between these
close-knit nations. British aviators Graham-White and Harry Harper,
1914 Slide 41 Slide 42 The Amateur Prophets 3. Application of the
most recent technology will lead to a change in the moral character
of mankind. ``That the Web, by linking the Earth, will bring about
lasting peace between these close-knit nations. British aviators
Graham-White and Harry Harper, 1914 Slide 43 The Amateur Prophets
3. Application of the most recent technology will lead to a change
in the moral character of mankind. Example: The Airplane, in
`Things to Come and Kiplings `Easy as ABC. See also: ``Through
technological improvements, the human condition will improve, till
it becomes as disgusting to kill a man as we today consider it
disgusting to eat one. ( Andrew Carnegie, 1900) Slide 44 The
Amateur Prophets 3a. That the most recent technology will produce a
revolutionary improvement in education. ``Motion pictures will
revolutionise our educational system, and in a few years will
supplant largely if not entirely, the use of textbooks Thomas
Edison, 1922 Slide 45 Slide 46 The Amateur Prophets 3a. That the
most recent technology will produce a revolutionary improvement in
education. Computers will revolutionise our educational system, and
in a few years will supplant largely if not entirely, the use of
textbooks Thomas Edison, 1922 Slide 47 Where is Technology Going?
1. Science leads technology: scientific advance makes new things
possible, and these are the things that technology creates. 2. The
needs of humanity direct technology: engineers work on products and
problems for which demand exists. (This demand can be expressed
either through the marketplace or by the elected representatives of
the people.) Slide 48 Where is Technology Going? 3. Managers direct
technology: those who run enterprises choose which technologies to
develop, then create a demand for their products. (Example: the
conviction of GM, Standard Oil and Firestone, March 1949, for
having criminally conspired to destroy the electric trolley system
in Los Angeles and replace it by gasoline or diesel- powered
buses.) Slide 49 Where is Technology Going? 4. Military goals lead
technology, which in turn leads to new military goals. Example: any
arms race. Slide 50 Conclusions 1.We cant know the future if we
dont know the past. 2.Knowing the past will not allow us to know
the future. 3.but a knowledge of the past will help show us the
range of possibilities
