THE FOURTH TURNINGTHE FOURTH TURNING

An American ProphecyAn American Prophecy

William StraussWilliam Strauss

Neil HoweNeil Howe

19971997

WHAT IS A TURNING?WHAT IS A TURNING?

• A FOUR CYCLE PHASE OF HISTORICAL A FOUR CYCLE PHASE OF HISTORICAL TIMETIME

• COVERING 80-100 YEARS (A COVERING 80-100 YEARS (A SAECULUMSAECULUM))

• ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A FULL HUMAN LIFEROUGHLY EQUAL TO A FULL HUMAN LIFE

• INCLUDING FOUR GENERATIONSINCLUDING FOUR GENERATIONS

WHAT IS A “TURNING”?WHAT IS A “TURNING”?

CHARACTERIZED BY SUCCEEDING CHARACTERIZED BY SUCCEEDING “SEASONS”“SEASONS”

1. GROWTH AND STRENGTH (1. GROWTH AND STRENGTH (HIGHHIGH))

2. 2. AWAKENINGAWAKENING AND MATURATION AND MATURATION

3. ENTROPY AND 3. ENTROPY AND UNRAVELINGUNRAVELING

4. 4. CRISISCRISIS AND DESTRUCTION AND DESTRUCTION

WHAT IS A “TURNING”?WHAT IS A “TURNING”?

GENERATIONS SHAPED BY SEASON OF GENERATIONS SHAPED BY SEASON OF BIRTHBIRTH

• ProphetProphet generation born during HIGH generation born during HIGH

• Nomad Nomad generation born during generation born during AWAKENINGAWAKENING

• HeroHero generation born during UNRAVELING generation born during UNRAVELING

• Artist Artist generation born during CRISISgeneration born during CRISIS

WHAT IS A “SAECULUM”?WHAT IS A “SAECULUM”?

• ANCIENT ETRUSCAN (BellaToscana!) ANCIENT ETRUSCAN (BellaToscana!) TERMTERM

• ADOPTED BY THE ROMANSADOPTED BY THE ROMANS

• A FULL FOUR PHASE HUMAN LIFEA FULL FOUR PHASE HUMAN LIFE– Childhood (Spring)Childhood (Spring)– Rising Adult (Summer)Rising Adult (Summer)– Middle Age (Fall)Middle Age (Fall)– Elder (Winter)Elder (Winter)

• HENCE “AN AGE” – History in your HENCE “AN AGE” – History in your bones!bones!

HISTORIOGRAPHICAL HISTORIOGRAPHICAL INTERLUDEINTERLUDE

HOW SHALL WE THINK HOW SHALL WE THINK ABOUT TIME?ABOUT TIME?

CIRCLECIRCLE ooLINELINE

SPIRAL SPIRAL

““Turnings” of the “War Turnings” of the “War Cycle”Cycle”

• Overture: Italian Wars (1491-1525)Overture: Italian Wars (1491-1525)

• 1st Cycle:(Phillip II Imperial Wars (1568-1st Cycle:(Phillip II Imperial Wars (1568-1609)1609)

• 2nd Cycle: War of Sp. Succession(1672-2nd Cycle: War of Sp. Succession(1672-1713)1713)

• 33rdrd Cycle: French Rev./Napoleonic(1792- Cycle: French Rev./Napoleonic(1792-1815)1815)

• 44thth Cycle: WWI-WWII (1914-1945) Cycle: WWI-WWII (1914-1945)

AWAKENING CYCLEAWAKENING CYCLE

• Protestant Reformation (1530s-1540s)Protestant Reformation (1530s-1540s)

• Puritan Awakening (1630s-1640s)Puritan Awakening (1630s-1640s)

• Pietist Awakening (1740s-1750s)Pietist Awakening (1740s-1750s)

• Evangelical-Utopian Awakening Evangelical-Utopian Awakening (1830s-40s)(1830s-40s)

• New Age Awakening (1960s-1970s)New Age Awakening (1960s-1970s)

Modern American Life CycleModern American Life Cycle

• Childhood: 0-20 --receiving, acquiring Childhood: 0-20 --receiving, acquiring

• Young Adult (21-41) –serving, testingYoung Adult (21-41) –serving, testing

• Midlife (42-62) power; managing, Midlife (42-62) power; managing, applyingapplying

• Elderhood (63-83) leadership; Elderhood (63-83) leadership; transferringtransferring

• Late Elder (84+) dependence; Late Elder (84+) dependence; rememberingremembering

Generations and WWIIGenerations and WWIIBirth Years Birth Years

PROGRESSIVEPROGRESSIVE 1843-1859 1843-1859 W. WilsonW. WilsonMISSIONARYMISSIONARY 1860-18821860-1882 FDRFDRLOST LOST 1883-19001883-1900 EisenhowerEisenhowerG.I.G.I. 1901-19241901-1924 JFKJFKSILENT SILENT 1925-19421925-1942 M. DUKAKISM. DUKAKISBOOMBOOM 1943-1960 BILL CLINTON1943-1960 BILL CLINTON1313THTH/XER/XER 1961-19811961-1981 TOM CRUISETOM CRUISEMILLENNIALMILLENNIAL 1982-20021982-2002 CLASS 2000CLASS 2000

GENERATIONS COMING OF GENERATIONS COMING OF AGEAGE• PROGRESSIVE: 1876 Edison, PROGRESSIVE: 1876 Edison,

WestinghouseWestinghouse• MISSIONARY: 1896 Populism Wm J. Bryan MISSIONARY: 1896 Populism Wm J. Bryan • MISSIONARY:1918 Doughboys; ParisMISSIONARY:1918 Doughboys; Paris• G.I.:G.I.: 19351935 CCC/WPACCC/WPA• SILENT:SILENT: 19541954 McCarthy/ Cold WarMcCarthy/ Cold War• BOOMERS:BOOMERS: 19691969 WoodstockWoodstock• 1313thth/Xer:/Xer: 19921992 Media Discover XersMedia Discover Xers• MILLENNIALMILLENNIAL 20012001 9/11?__________ 9/11?__________

GENERATIONS AND GENERATIONS AND ARCHETYPESARCHETYPESPrometheusPrometheus DionysusDionysus ApolloApollo EpimetheusEpimetheus

SpringSpring Summer Fall Summer Fall Winter Winter

Traditional Agnostic Dogmatic InnovativeTraditional Agnostic Dogmatic Innovative

Reason Reason Intuition Feeling Sensation Intuition Feeling Sensation

NTNT SP NF SJ SP NF SJ

Hero Hero Artist Prophet Nomad Artist Prophet Nomad

G.I.G.I. Silent Silent Boom 13 Boom 13thth/Xer/Xer

WHERE DO WE GO FROM WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?HERE?