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7/31/2019 The Forrester Wave - Marketing Mix Modeling Q3 2011
1/12
Making Leaders Successul Every Day
Septeme 21, 2011
The Foeste We: MketgM Modelg, Q3 2011 Lc S. Pde
o CMO & Mketg Ledeshp Poessols
http://www.forrester.com/7/31/2019 The Forrester Wave - Marketing Mix Modeling Q3 2011
2/12
2011 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Forrester, Forrester Wave, RoleView, Technographics, TechRankings, and Total EconomicImpact are trademarks o Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property o their respective owners. Reproduction or sharing o thiscontent in any orm without prior written permission is strictly prohibited. To purchase reprints o this document, please email [email protected]. For additional reproduction and usage inormation, see Forresters Citation Policy located at www.orrester.com. Inormation is
based on best available resources. Opinions refect judgment at the time and are subject to change.
Fo CMO & Mketg Ledeshp Poessols
ExECuTivE SuMMary
Te marketing mix modeling market is undergoing a transormation as marketers increasingly demand
that vendors provide solutions that are updated requently, can easily aggregate data streams, can
provide orward-looking recommendations, and can account or the continuous evolution o digital
channels, all in a package that is exible and intuitive to navigate. In Forresters 49-criteria evaluation
o marketing mix modeling vendors, we ound that MarketShare is a Leader thanks to its sowareunctionality, extensive data partnerships, and innovative strategy to integrate with media agencies.
Marketing Management Analytics (MMA) is also a strong option with its granular attribution tool and
exible soware. TinkVine excels with its unique consumer-centric, agent-based methodology, and
SymphonyIRI Groups access to shopper and consumer data is unmatched. Marketing Analytics is a
Strong Perormer thanks to its strong modeling soware but lacks access and shareability o models or
agencies. Ninah is also a Strong Perormer; it has a strong consultative approach but lacks a mature sel-
service soware platorm.
Ta bLE OF COnTEnTSMaret M Model Has The Poer To
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Related Research Docmets
Mketg M Modelg Ldscpe Oeew
M 18, 2011
The SplteetJ 26, 2010
best Pctces i Mket M Modelg
agst 25, 2005
Septeme 21, 2011
The Foeste We: Mketg M Modelg, Q32011MketShe, Mketg Mgemet altcs, Thkve, ad Smphoiriae Ledes
by Lca S. Pader
wth Mke Gltz d Mtthew Deog
2
2
5
7
9
http://www.forrester.com/go?docid=58784&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=56303&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=35129&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=35129&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=56303&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=58784&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/7/31/2019 The Forrester Wave - Marketing Mix Modeling Q3 2011
3/12
2011, Foeste resech, ic. repodcto PohtedSepteme 21, 2011
The Foeste We: Mketg M Modelg, Q3 2011
Fo CMO & Mketg Ledeshp Poessols
2
MARkETing Mix MODELing HAS THE POwER TO BRing ORDER TO CHAOS
Since the early 90s, when MMA rst pioneered marketing mix modeling as a way to track the
return on investment (ROI) o marketing budgets, the industry has evolved to keep up with the
demand or marketing accountability as well as the increasingly ragmenting media landscape. Inthe age o the Splinternet, marketers can no longer aord to run mix models only or traditional
marketing channels.1 Te uture evolution o marketing mix modeling will be challenging as
marketers increasingly demand nuanced models to track where and how their customers interact
with a ast-increasing number o marketing touchpoints. Why is this happening now?
Media consumption is increasingly ragmented. Most consumers are no longer exposed tomarketing messages in a vacuum; they oen interact with multiple media simultaneously.2 In
this progressively complex environment, marketers need to understand precisely how efciently
their various marketing channel budgets are reaching their customers.
Te marketing accountability bar is rising. Because o the impact o the nancial crisis andthe continuous rise o digital marketing, rms are pressuring their marketing organizations
to ensure that investments in all marketing channels are more measurable, accountable, and
transparent. More than ever, senior marketers have to demonstrate a direct link with business
results and positive ROI or their entire marketing budget.
Te data deluge is just beginning. With new digital channels comes an abundance o rich butcomplex data sources that marketers need to translate into coherent metrics. In 2009, individual
consumers created more data than in the entire history o mankind through 2008.3 Marketing
mix modeling vendors need to integrate current and emerging data streams into their mix
models and help marketers interpret them to inorm actionable business decisions.
MARkETing Mix MODELing VEnDOR EVALuATiOn OVERViEw
o assess the state o the marketing mix modeling market and see how the vendors stack up against
each other, Forrester evaluated the strengths and weaknesses o six o the top marketing mix
modeling vendors.4 In our examination and evaluation, we weighted the criteria toward crucial
areas that our senior marketer clients look or in a vendor, namely:
Mature sel-service soware. With market dynamics changing ast, marketers cannot relyon quarterly PowerPoint updates on the eectiveness o their marketing eorts. Marketers
need soware tools that allow them to run multiple what-i budget scenarios, predict uture
outcomes rom current campaigns, and transparently share mix model insights within their
organizations, all in an on-demand environment. Although Forrester believes that vendors need
to provide consultative support in tandem with modeling soware to help marketers translate
model insights into action, this Forrester Wave gives an important weight to the hands-on
modeling soware tools each vendor has to oer.5
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3
Collaborative tools. o succeed with marketing mix modeling, marketers need clear, organizedprocesses in place both within their organization and with their media agencies to share model
insights, potential optimizations, and action plans.6 Modeling vendors that give media agencies
and internal client teams access to soware tools enable their clients to communicate and share
model insights quickly. For example, one marketer explained that all his rms media agencies
are now required to assess any potential campaigns or proposals using marketing mix modeling
soware to discern the impact on the clients key perormance indicators (KPIs).
Organized integration o new data streams. As digital, mobile, and social marketing channelsprolierate, marketers need mix models that seamlessly incorporate and interpret these new data
sets. o assist marketers with their data collection needs, modeling vendors have begun to invest
in data integration and data management platorms that can manipulate data in various ormats,
and in some cases electronically aggregate them, with little eort rom the marketers themselves.
we Evalated Hh-groth Vedors Serv Lare Maret Orazatos
o identiy the marketing mix modeling vendors that are best suited to help marketers succeed in
the current Splinternet age, we screened 50 vendors that range rom pure technology vendors to
consulting shops. From this group, we selected six vendors all o which are new to a Forrester
evaluation that best embody the mix modeling services our clients need. Our evaluation included
Marketing Analytics, Marketing Management Analytics, MarketShare, Ninah, SymphonyIRI, and
TinkVine because they (see Figure 1):
Have at least 10 active clients. As this is Forresters rst evaluation o the marketing mix modelingspace, we wanted to ocus on vendors that have established client bases o at least 10 marketers.
Are growing aggressively. Marketing mix modeling is still a market in ux; thereore, weltered or vendors that are growing their business and are innovators within the eld. Vendors
selected or this Forrester Wave all had greater than 20% annual growth in 2010.
Support large marketing organizations. We looked or marketing mix modeling vendorsdedicated to serving the same customers Forrester serves: companies with more than $1 billion
in annual revenues. We did not consider vendors with an enterprise client base o less than 70%.
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The Foeste We: Mketg M Modelg, Q3 2011
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Fre 1 Elted vedos: vedo iomto ad Selecto Cte
Source: Forrester Research, Inc.
Vendor
Marketing Analytics
Marketing Management Analytics
MarketShare
Ninah
SymphonyIRI Group
ThinkVine
Number
of clients
19
33
55
>40*
35
18
32%
27%
42%
>20%*
>20%*
44%
2010 new
business growth
Enterprise-level
clients
90%
90%
90%
80%
100%
73%
Date evaluated
June 2011
June 2011
June 2011
June 2011
June 2011
June 2011
Vendor selection criteria
Each evaluated vendor must have at least 10 active clients.
Each evaluated vendor must be growing aggressively (greater than 20% annual growth in 2010).
Each evaluated vendor must support large marketing organizations (an enterprise client base of morethan 70%).
*The vendor chose not to publicly disclose these gures but shared them with Forrester condentiallyfor verication.
The Evalato Aalyzes Three Core Aspects O Each Vedors OerFor our rst Forrester Wave evaluating the marketing mix modeling market, we leveraged past
research, user need assessments, and vendor and expert interviews to develop a comprehensive set
o evaluation criteria. In particular, we evaluated vendors against 49 criteria, which we grouped into
three high-level buckets:
Current oering. We evaluated vendors capabilities to help marketers translate multiple typeso marketing data into actionable insights. Tis includes their soware platorms, their ability
to let media agencies leverage models on behal o their clients, their data inrastructure, their
amiliarity with digital and social marketing channels, and their methodologies or helping
marketers manage various types o objectives.
Strategy. We assessed how well suited each vendors management team, executive vision,product development road map, and global strategy are to the uture needs o marketers as well
as how the vendor is using innovation to shape the uture o marketing mix modeling.
Market presence. Lastly, we examined each vendors overall size and market position based onits 2010 revenue, employee training, existing partnerships, and customer retention.
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The Foeste We: Mketg M Modelg, Q3 2011
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EVALuATED VEnDORS ALL OFFER ROBuST SOFTwARE TOOLS AnD PREDiCTiVE MODELing
Te evaluation uncovered a market in which (see Figure 2):
MarketShare, Marketing Management Analytics, and TinkVine lead the pack. MarketShareearns its position as a Leader in our rst Forrester Wave evaluation o the marketing mix
modeling market or its combination o compelling soware tools, exceptional handling o
digital data, and a ocused strategy to innovate in the marketing mix modeling space. Marketing
Management Analytics, with its impressive approach to digital metrics and granular attribution
models, and TinkVine, with its unconventional methodology that trains thousands o agents
to behave similarly to real people and measures their interactions and engagement with client
marketing messages, are also Leaders. A common thread through all three top vendors is
their ocus on enabling marketers to transparently share and collaborate on models within
their organization and with their media agencies. Tis is a trend Forrester sees as increasingly
important in marketing mix modeling as the pace o all marketing quickens and insights willneed to be gleaned, communicated, and executed seamlessly.
SymphonyIRI is a Leader but lacks collaborative unctionalities. SymphonyIRI ranks asa Leader, but its soware tools are still conned to internal client users. In some situations,
SymphonyIRI does grant agencies access to modeling tools, but this is not yet the norm.
SymphonyIRI is aware o the need or agency access or its modeling tools and is ocused on
improving collaborative unctionality in its soware. At the same time, SymphonyIRI has very
strong data integration and aggregation capabilities and unprecedented access to point-o-sale
data rom around the globe.
Marketing Analytics and Ninah are competitive Strong Perormers. Marketing Analyticshas Leader-level mix modeling soware, but it restricts soware access to the client marketing
organization, making it more challenging or marketers to communicate models with agencies
and actualize model insights. Ninah has a well-organized, thoughtul approach to marketing
mix modeling but lacks soware products that do not need to be custom-built to specication.
Tis evaluation o the marketing mix modeling market is intended to be a starting point only. We
weighted the scoring based on the direction in which we see the marketplace moving overall and on
the eatures marketers will ask or in the uture. However, this is only a single lens through which to
view the marketplace and is by no means an absolute ranking o the top vendors in this space. We
encourage readers to view the detailed product evaluations and adapt the criteria weightings to ttheir individual needs through the Forrester Wave Excel-based vendor comparison tool.
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Fre 2 Foeste We: Mketg M Modelg, Q3 11
Source: Forrester Research, Inc.
Go online to download
the Forrester Wave tool
for more detailed product
evaluations, feature
comparisons, and
customizable rankings.
Risky
Bets Contenders Leaders
Strong
Performers
StrategyWeak Strong
Current
oering
Weak
Strong
Market presence
Full vendor participation
Incomplete vendor participation
Marketing Analytics
Marketing Management Analytics
MarketShare
Ninah
SymphonyIRIGroup
ThinkVine
Nielsen
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Fre 2 Foeste We: Mketg M Modelg, Q2 11 (Cot.)
Source: Forrester Research, Inc.
CURRENT OFFERING
General information
Services
Technology
Data
MethodologyAnalysis
STRATEGY
Strength of management team
Corporate strategy
Product strategy
Global strategy
MARKET PRESENCE
Financial stability
Company
Partnerships
Customers
MarketingAnalytics
3.89
5.00
4.60
4.70
3.14
3.503.30
3.05
5.00
3.00
3.00
2.00
1.49
0.00
2.50
1.00
2.45
Forresters
Weighting
50%
10%
10%
20%
20%
20%20%
50%
15%
30%
30%
25%
0%
25%
25%
25%
25%
MarketingManagem
ent
Analytics
4.36
5.00
4.60
4.20
3.79
4.504.50
4.40
5.00
4.00
4.00
5.00
2.86
2.00
4.00
2.00
3.45
MarketShare
4.49
5.00
4.80
4.20
4.44
4.404.50
4.75
5.00
5.00
5.00
4.00
4.48
5.00
4.00
5.00
3.90
Ninah
3.10
4.00
4.00
1.30
3.59
3.802.80
3.50
5.00
3.00
2.00
5.00
3.50
4.00
3.00
3.20
3.80
SymphonyIRIGroup
3.92
4.00
4.00
4.40
4.40
3.503.30
4.10
5.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
4.13
4.00
5.00
3.80
3.70
ThinkVine
4.61
5.00
4.40
4.20
4.35
4.805.00
4.13
5.00
5.00
5.00
1.50
2.88
3.00
3.00
2.00
3.50
All scores are based on a scale of 0 (weak) to 5 (strong).
VEnDOR PROFiLES
Leaders: Fleble Sotare Ad Dtal Proess
MarketShare. With its robust soware tools. MarketShare ranks as a Leader in this Forrester Wave.MarketShares Planner and Optimizer tools are accessible to analytically procient end users and
senior brand managers as well as outside media agencies. MarketShare also has excellent dataprocessing and integration capabilities and can integrate client marketing data in multiple ormats.
MarketShares mix models are all built to be orward-looking rst and pull data in rom media
agencies and various third-party data partnerships, including a partnership with Google to supply
search and Youube query data. MarketShare also works closely with its clients to understand how
models results can aect the way they organize their marketing department. With a large global
presence, aggressive plans to expand into new markets and new verticals, and a strategy to align
closely with media agencies, MarketShare is a great choice or any type o marketer.
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Marketing Management Analytics. Marketing Management Analytics is also a Leader thanksto its dynamic soware solutions. With Da Vinci, its data integration and processing tool;
Market View, an easy-to-use reporting tool; and Avista, a orward-looking modeling tool, MMA
helps marketers aggregate data, understand past eectiveness, and project uture outcomes. Te
company has a strong emphasis on collaboration, and media agencies can leverage Avista to
uncover optimal campaign allocations. Marketers can also grant limited access to high-level
reports and scenarios to brand, sales, or nance teams within the organization. MMA also oers
m360, a digital deep dive product, which goes a level deeper into digital media analytics to
measure granular attribution. Marketers that are just beginning with marketing mix modeling
should look to MMA to help build accurate models that can justiy marketing budgets and eect
transormational change within organizations.
TinkVine. Te youngest and smallest vendor in this Forrester Wave, TinkVine, ranks as
a Leader because o its innovative, agent-based approach to mix modeling and its robusttechnologies. TinkVines unique methodology uses a system o agents that are trained to
behave and react to marketing activities as real people. I marketers have custom segmentations,
TinkVine can create new custom rules or the system to reect those segments. Its soware
platorm is built on Force.com and is available to analytical end users, senior marketers,
and media agencies. TinkVines biggest strength is its ocus on modeling how a group o
consumers actually behaves when exposed to a communication or a promotional or social
activity. Additionally, TinkVine can create mix models with little proprietary marketer data, as
its agent-based system can be trained with category data or any country. Marketers looking to
expand into emerging markets where data might be difcult to come by can look to TinkVine
to build models that yield quick, actionable insights. However, the company has relatively little
experience with global projects and has no international presence.
SymphonyIRI. SymphonyIRI, with the strongest data oering o all o our evaluated vendors,rounds out the Leaders category. In addition to its strong relationships with digital and social
media data providers, SymphonyIRI has a vast global network o partnerships to aggregate
shopper and consumer purchasing data rom 54 countries. SymphonyIRI has a particularly
strong ootprint among consumer packaged goods (CPG) and pharmaceutical marketers.
SymphonyIRI has soware tools or reporting and orecasting (Brand Advantage) and data
aggregation and integration (Liquid Data) but needs to work on opening its tools up to
nonanalytical users and media agencies.
Stro Perormers: Poerl Methodoloes From Prove Vedors
Marketing Analytics. Marketing Analytics, which announced aer this Forrester Waves reviewperiod that Nielsen was acquiring it, ranks as a Strong Perormer in our evaluation. Marketing
Analytics has strong analytical rigor and prides itsel on being at the oreront o methodological
innovations in mix modeling. However, the vendor lags in its adoption o emerging marketing
channels, such as digital, mobile, and social. Marketing Analytics suite o soware tools, though
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robust, is restricted to client end users only, and the vendor has no plans to allow marketers to
share any model unctionality with their agencies.
Ninah. Tanks to its strong consultative approach to mix modeling, Ninah ranks as a StrongPerormer in our evaluation. Ninah emphasizes a heavily strategic consultative approach
to marketing mix modeling and, or large client engagements, can build custom modeling
solutions as needed, but modeling soware is not part o Ninahs standard oering. Trough its
parent company, Publicis Groupe, Ninah has deep relationships with third-party data providers
and the Publicis network o media agencies. Ninahs deeply consultative approach to modeling
is good or marketers looking or a vendor that will adapt to the client organization and take
ull ownership o the modeling eort. Ninah has a strong global presence and direct access to
Publicis capabilities and resources.
SuPPLEMEnTAL MATERiAL
Ole Resorce
Te online version o Figure 2 is an Excel-based vendor comparison tool that provides detailed
product evaluations and customizable rankings.
Data Sorces used i Ths Forrester wave
Forrester used a combination o three data sources to assess the strengths and weaknesses o each
solution:
In-person briefngs and scenario-based demos. Each vendor participated in a three-hourbrieng during which representatives discussed strategy and key dierentiators as well as
demonstrated technology and processes against three hypothetical client scenarios. We
evaluated each product using the same scenarios, creating a level playing eld by evaluating
every product on the same criteria.
Vendor surveys. Forrester surveyed vendors on their capabilities as they relate to the evaluationcriteria. Once we analyzed the completed vendor surveys, we conducted vendor calls where
necessary to gather details o vendor qualications.
Customer reerence calls. o validate product and vendor qualications, Forrester also
conducted reerence calls with two o each vendors current customers.
The Forrester wave Methodoloy
We conduct primary research to develop a list o vendors that meet our criteria to be evaluated
in this market. From that initial pool o vendors, we then narrow our nal list. We choose these
vendors based on: 1) product t; 2) customer success; and 3) Forrester client demand. We eliminate
vendors that have limited customer reerences and products that dont t the scope o our evaluation.
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Aer examining past research, user need assessments, and vendor and expert interviews, we develop
the initial evaluation criteria. o evaluate the vendors and their products against our set o criteria,
we gather details o product qualications through a combination o lab evaluations, questionnaires,
demos, and/or discussions with client reerences. We send evaluations to the vendors or their review,and we adjust the evaluations to provide the most accurate view o vendor oerings and strategies.
We set deault weightings to reect our analysis o the needs o large user companies and/or
other scenarios as outlined in the Forrester Wave document and then score the vendors based
on a clearly dened scale. Tese deault weightings are intended only as a starting point, and we
encourage readers to adapt the weightings to t their individual needs through the Excel-based
tool. Te nal scores generate the graphical depiction o the market based on current oering,
strategy, and market presence. Forrester intends to update vendor evaluations regularly as product
capabilities and vendor strategies evolve.
EnDnOTES
1 For more detail on the ragmentation o media and content consumption, see the January 26, 2010, Te
Splinternet report.
2 Seventy-three percent o US adults say that they multitask with their computer while watching V. Source:
North American echnographics Entertainment And Media Online Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q2
2010 (US).
3 Andreas Weigend, Te Social Data Revolution(s), Harvard Business Review, May 20, 2009 (http://blogs.
hbr.org/now-new-next/2009/05/the-social-data-revolution.html).
4 Forrester reached out to Nielsen, but the vendor declined to participate in this evaluation. Nielsens position
on the Forrester Wave graphic is estimated based on Forresters past research.
5 Based on our previous research and interviews with marketers, we ocused this Forrester Wave on the
unctionality that marketers demand most rom their modeling vendors.
6 For more detail on Forresters ideal marketing mix modeling processes or marketers, see the May 18, 2011,
Marketing Mix Modeling Landscape Overview report.
http://www.forrester.com/go?docid=56303&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=56303&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=58784&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=58784&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=56303&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=56303&src=60121pdf7/31/2019 The Forrester Wave - Marketing Mix Modeling Q3 2011
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Forrester Research, Inc. (Nasdaq: FORR)
is an independent research company
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works with proessionals in 19 key roles
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