8/12/2019 the foreign policy of usa in asia

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-foreign-policy-of-usa-in-asia 1/322 | Center or Strategic and International Studies

Te U.S. Asia “pivot” hasprompted Chinese anxietyabout U.S. containment andheightened regional worriesabout intensied U.S.-Chinast ategic competition.

Under the current administration, the pendulumin U.S. policy toward China has swung romattempting to cooperate with China on globalproblems to pushing back against Chineseassertiveness and challenges to internationallaws and norms. Getting tougher with Beijingwas necessary, but it has also created unintendedconsequences that the next administration, eithera second Obama team or a Republican lineup, willhave to contend with.

he Obama administration’s initial policy in2009 raised ears in many Asian capitals o aG2 condominium that would make decisionsover the heads o others. hose concerns wereunwarranted and short lived. Beijing interpretedthe U.S. approach as weakness, which, alongwith China’s economic success and America’sstruggles, led to a year o Chinese hubris thatmani ested itsel in a series o intimidatingactions in China’s neighborhood. Subsequententreaties by regional states to counterbalanceChina increased U.S. attention to the Asia-Paci icregion. Now, the U.S. Asia “pivot” has promptedChinese anxiety about U.S. containment andheightened regional worries about intensi iedU.S.-China strategic competition.

In the run-up to the leadership transition that willtake place at China’s 18th Party Congress this all,Beijing is inwardly ocused and unlikely to act onits ears. However, 2013 could see a shif in Chinese

oreign policy based on the new leadership’s judgment that it must respond to a U.S. strategythat seeks to prevent China’s reemergence as agreat power.

Signs o a potential harsh reaction are alreadydetectable. Te U.S. Asia pivot has triggeredan outpouring o anti-American sentiment inChina that will increase pressure on China’sincoming leadership to stand up to the UnitedStates. Nationalistic voices are calling or militarycountermeasures to the bolstering o America’smilitary posture in the region and the newU.S. de ense strategic guidelines. For example,an article published in China’s Global Times, a jingoistic newspaper owned by the CommunistParty mouthpiece People’s Daily , called or Chinato strengthen its long-range strike capabilities.

Deng Xiaoping’s guideline to keep a lowpro ile in the international arena, designedmore than two decades ago to cope withuncertainty produced by the collapse o theSoviet bloc, is increasingly seen by China’selite and public as irrelevant and even harm ulto the task o de ending Chinese ever-expanding“core interests.” Some voices are calling or closeralignment with Moscow and promoting the BRICSgrouping (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) as a new“pole” in the international arena to strengthen theemerging powers against the West.

Pivot to Asia: Prepare for Unintended Consequences

Bonnie S. Glaser

8/12/2019 the foreign policy of usa in asia

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-foreign-policy-of-usa-in-asia 2/3Global Forecast 2012 | 23

Xi Jinping, who will assume the helm as China’s new leader later this year, willbe under pressure rom many domestic constituencies to more orce ully de endChinese interests in the international arena. Seeking to quickly consolidate hispower and enhance the legitimacy o the Communist Party, Xi and his newlyinstalled Politburo Standing Committee colleagues may be more willing than theirpredecessors to test drive a policy that is more con rontational.

he U.S. response to a more muscular Chinese oreign and military policy,should it appear, will have to be care ully calibrated. Ignoring greater Chineseassertiveness would uel the belie —already emerging in China and elsewhere—that the United States is in inexorable decline. History shows that when greatpowers alter, China does not hesitate to seize the opportunity to advance itsinterests, especially in the South China Sea. As American orces withdrew romVietnam in the mid-1970s, the Chinese grabbed the Paracel Islands rom Saigon.Similarly, when the Soviet Union withdrew rom Vietnam’s Cam Ranh Bay andthe United States terminated its base agreement with the Philippines, Chinaquietly occupied Mischie Ree to the dismay o Manila.

Yet a hostile and overbearing U.S. response would conrm Chinese suspicions thatthe United States seeks to contain its rise, which could cement the emergence o aU.S.-China Cold War. In addition, it would urther alarm regional states who seekat all costs to avoid having to choose between the United States and China.

8/12/2019 the foreign policy of usa in asia

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-foreign-policy-of-usa-in-asia 3/324 | Center or Strategic and International Studies

g

U.S. policy will need to combine irmness with subtlety. Astrategy will need to be shaped that protects regional stabilityand reassures China’s neighbors, but also avoids greater U.S.-China strategic competition and the classic security dilemma,wherein each side believes that growing capabilities re lecthostile intent and responds by producing that reality. Sustainedattention and commitment o su icient resources to the Asia-Paci ic region will be key to assuaging the doubts o regional

riends and allies about U.S. staying power. he United Statesalso will need to maintain the military capabilities necessary todeter Chinese aggression.

At the same time, however, steps will be required to retain anoverall cooperative relationship with China. o tamp downChinese suspicions that the United States seeks to strategicallyencircle and contain it, anti-China rhetoric that has needlesslyprovoked Chinese ire and ears must be jettisoned. Assertionsthat the United States welcomes China’s rise will have to bematched with deeds to prevent Beijing rom abandoning itspeace ul development strategy and engaging in a zero-sumrivalry with the United States. Greater e orts will need to bemade to strengthen China’s integration into the internationalsystem and draw China into cooperative security endeavorsaround the globe. As the rans-Paci ic Partnership becomes areality, China should be encouraged to trans orm its economyso that it can quali y or membership.

Getting China right will be among the toughest challengesthe next U.S. administration will ace. Success will require aresurgent U.S. economy and adroitness in oreign policy that

orestalls Chinese miscalculation.