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he Fight to Save Planetary Science, and Why the New Mars Rover Doesnt Mean Victory

anetary scientists have come together to prioritize the most compelling, cutting-edge questions across our entire field. Some of these questio

e best addressed by ambitious, sophisticated, large-scale missions. Others are best addressed by smaller, more focused missions. Some requ

ntinued operations of existing plantary orbiters or rovers. All require a commitment to maintaining the existing planetary science communi

While the future of large-scale missions has been receiving the most headlines, the other priorities have uncertain, worrying futures, and Ame

anetary exploration may suffer greatly as a result.

he relationship between planetary science and NASA is deeply intertwined and fraught with complications. Almost every US planetary scien

epends on the space agency in some way: either directly as civil servants employed by NASA, recipients of peer-reviewed science grants fund

ASA, participants in the operations or science planning of ongoing or anticipated planetary missions, or simply as users of the vast quantity

ata returned by those missions since the first one 50 years ago.

very ten years a Decadal Survey (DS) is conducted across planetary science to identify the highest-priority science questions and chart a co

r answering those questions. The DS is conducted by the National Research Council, sponsored and initiated by NASA and the NSF. While i

oes not carry the force of law, the recommendations of the DS are seen by Congress, the public, and planetary scientists themselves as

presenting the consensus of the planetary science community. Usually, NASA then uses these recommendations to ensure that i t plans and

mplements the most scientifically productive suite of projects possible. The most recent DSwas completed in 2011.

he highest profile DS recommendations relate to spacecraft missions. Three cost classes exist for NASA planetary science missions, the first

which are the direct result of past DS recommendations:Discovery(roughly $500 million),New Frontiers(a bit less than $1 billion), and

agship (everything more than $1 billion). The selection process differs from class to class: Discovery and New Frontiers missions are chosen

two-step competitive proposal process that first winnows the dozens of submitted proposals down to a handful, then picks a final winner fro

e remaining few. The destinations and goals of Flagship missions are set by NASA, and scientists then compete to provide and work with

dividual instruments, while the mission as a whole is run from a specific NASA Center. Discovery missions can be targeted anywhere in the s

stem that compelling science can be addressed within the allotted budget. A set of acceptable New Frontiers destinations are generated thro

e DS process, along with the desired science to be done at each destination.

he top priority Flagship mission, according to the DS, is Mars Sample Return, sort of. A mission to collect and return a sample of the martian

urface to Earth is a project that will cost at least $7-8 billion, an eye-opening cost even in the best of budgetary times, which this is not. So th

mple return mission was divided into three easier-to-swallow pieces, the firs t of which is this decades priority Flagship and simply identifie

llects the desired samples and caches them for later retrieval. The unspoken assumption is that this retrieval and subsequent return to Eart

ccur in the following decade, possibly as the next two highest-priority Flagships in the queue. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB)

mored to be wary of committing the government to such a large outlay and biasing future decadal surveys toward completing the sample re

pecially since the caching mission has uncertain immediate science value on its own.

all, the priorities in the Decadal Survey are pretty clear. If Mars Sample Return cannot be achieved within budget constraints, a Europa mis

at fitsshould be attempted. In either case, as resources become scarcer, the largest projects (i.e. Flagships) should be descoped or postponed

otect the smaller mission projects, with continued operations of existing missions and funding of research andanalysis grants(R&A) the hig

iority for continued funding, even when budgetary conditions are bad. This, to me, is most obviously interpreted as putting highest priority

ese grants and continued operations, the PI-led Discovery and New Frontiers programs second, and the largest-scale Flagship missions last

owever, for reasons that are obscure to me but which some of my colleagues find compelling, an alternative set of priorities has been asserted

cusing on the balanced program preference in the Decadal Survey. In this view, some progress should always be occurring o n missions at

ales, though this balance is only applicable to mission classes and potentially targets: R&A, technology development, and ongoing missions

early intended to be exempt from this balance, with a separate protected status. There has been considerable effort placed on studying and

studying large missions to find some way to fit them into the available budgets. This has led, in some way, to the announcement that the

uriosity rover currently on Mars will be rebuilt for a 2020 launch as thenext Flagship-class mission. It is thought that the 2020 rebuild, if a c

py to the original, can be done more cheaply than Curiositys final cost, perhaps for $1.5 billion. However, such a rebuild is notobviously

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2012/12/18/the-fight-to-save-planetary-science-and-why-the-new-mars-rover-doesnt-mean-victory/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2012/12/18/the-fight-to-save-planetary-science-and-why-the-new-mars-rover-doesnt-mean-victory/http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13117http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13117http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13117http://discovery.nasa.gov/index.cfmlhttp://discovery.nasa.gov/index.cfmlhttp://discovery.nasa.gov/index.cfmlhttp://discoverynewfrontiers.nasa.gov/index.cfmlhttp://discoverynewfrontiers.nasa.gov/index.cfmlhttp://discoverynewfrontiers.nasa.gov/index.cfmlhttp://solarsystem.nasa.gov/europa/2012study.cfmhttp://solarsystem.nasa.gov/europa/2012study.cfmhttp://solarsystem.nasa.gov/europa/2012study.cfmhttp://science.nasa.gov/researchers/sara/http://science.nasa.gov/researchers/sara/http://science.nasa.gov/researchers/sara/http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-384http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-384http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-384http://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2012/12051226-response-2020-rover.htmlhttp://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2012/12051226-response-2020-rover.htmlhttp://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2012/12051226-response-2020-rover.htmlhttp://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-384http://science.nasa.gov/researchers/sara/http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/europa/2012study.cfmhttp://discoverynewfrontiers.nasa.gov/index.cfmlhttp://discovery.nasa.gov/index.cfmlhttp://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13117http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2012/12/18/the-fight-to-save-planetary-science-and-why-the-new-mars-rover-doesnt-mean-victory/

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otivated by science reasons. While connections to the DS and Mars Sample Return can be imagined for this new rover, none have been expl

ade.

has been argued in some circles that the 2020 rover represents a good-faith effort to fly the highest priority mission in the DS. It is definitel

se that Mars Sample Return is the consensus choice for the next large mission. However, it is neither the case that the community thinks Ma

ample Return is the top priority for planetary science, nor that Mars is the highest priority mission target.

may be the case that a copy of Curiosity could be built for $1.5 billion. However, it is not the case that such a copy is responsive to the

commendations of the planetary science community. It may be the case that a Curiosity copy could be made responsive to those

commendations, but the necessary alterations would make it less likely it can be built for $1.5 billion. While the startup funds for a 2020 rov

ay be present in thecurrent Mars Program budget, any overruns or unforeseen additions will have consequences for other projects, as we ha

nfortunately seen in the past in similar situations.

urthermore, even if everything runs smoothly, the majority of funding will be required several years from now, beyond the time for which bu

e currently planned. The temptation to put off the Discovery and New Frontiers program for yet another year (or two or three) will be prese

pecially if doing so supports a more capable Mars rover.

eyond all of this, lost in the maneuvering and rescoping and ruckus with respect to the Flagships are the other priorities in the DS. In my opi

ere is simply no honest, rational reading by which the Flagship missions are higher priorities than Discovery or New Frontiers, as outlined a

et, there has been too little attention paid to the constantly slipping timelines and lengthening years between opportunities for these program

s originally conceived and still recommended in the DS, Discovery opportunities would be available every 24-36 months, if not more often, w

ultiple selections per competition. Yet only one selection was made in the entire 2002-2011 decade, and while InSight (a Mars mission) was

lected in 2012, the next Discovery opportunity is not scheduled before 2015. This is an astonishing slowdown compared to the 1992-2001

eriodwhen 10 missions were selected. While NASA leadership has focused on large missions in general and Mars specifically, there has been

bvious effort to maintain the desired pace ofsmaller missions, which haveprovided amazingandvaried science resultsand trained tomorrow

ading planetary scientists.

urthermore, there have been threats to the operation of ongoing missions. TheMESSENGER spacecraftorbiting Mercury has enough fuel to

main in orbit for two more years, and plans to fill those years with follow-up science investigations that have been in place. However, scient

ose to the mission report that it is unclear whether sufficient funds will be available to continue its operation beyond 2013, and supporters a

ow fighting for its life. The Cassini spacecraft orbitingSaturnhas also been the subject of shutdown rumors. Again, this is despite the exceed

gh priority placed on continuing these missions by the planetary science community.

nally, the highest priority to the science community, the maintenance and expansion of R&A, has also been largely neglected. Arecent

nalysisby Mark Sykes of the Planetary Science Institute shows that recent increases in R&A funding have been concentrated in near-Earth o

udies (good for my personal interests, not great for colleagues who study Venus or the rings of Saturn), and that proposal success rates have

opping precipitously over the past decade from upward of 40% to a current rate of 25% or lower. Astonishingly, even this 25% success rate m

e cut further, with recent evidence that rates as low as 10% are planned for coming years. This will cripple the scientific community that NAS

lies on to make its exploration missions successful and generate the ideas and research that leads to future missions.

he bottom line for many concerned planetary scientists is this: we have been asked by NASA to rally behind the DS since its publication, but

e watching NASA by and large abandon the recommendations of the DS. The people working at the agency are in a difficult situation and ar

orking hard for planetary science, but a lack of transparency and a steady stream of surprises makes too many scientists feel more like pawn

an partners. The technical workers and engineers who enabled amazing Mars landings are being rightfully acknowledged and their skills

otected, but it appears that the rest of the planetary science community is not considered important enough by NASA to maintain.

would be naive to assume that the goals and agendas of NASA as an agency are always aligned with the best interests of the field of planetar

iences (or earth sciences, or astrophysics, and so on). It would be folly to demand that science always take precedence over political or finan

nstraints. What I think we can ask for, as scientists and as citizens, is that decisions made due to non-science considerations are honestly

esented as such. If we are to get coal in our stockings, dont tell us its because thats what we put on our wish list to Santa.

http://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2012/12051226-response-2020-rover.htmlhttp://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2012/12051226-response-2020-rover.htmlhttp://www.planetary.org/blogs/casey-dreier/20121204-the-2020-rover-in-context.htmlhttp://www.planetary.org/blogs/casey-dreier/20121204-the-2020-rover-in-context.htmlhttp://www.planetary.org/blogs/casey-dreier/20121204-the-2020-rover-in-context.htmlhttp://discovery.nasa.gov/lib/pdf/HistoricalDiscoveryProgramInformation.pdfhttp://discovery.nasa.gov/lib/pdf/HistoricalDiscoveryProgramInformation.pdfhttp://discovery.nasa.gov/lib/pdf/HistoricalDiscoveryProgramInformation.pdfhttp://moon.mit.edu/http://moon.mit.edu/http://moon.mit.edu/http://dawn.jpl.nasa.gov/http://dawn.jpl.nasa.gov/http://dawn.jpl.nasa.gov/http://stardust.jpl.nasa.gov/home/index.htmlhttp://stardust.jpl.nasa.gov/home/index.htmlhttp://stardust.jpl.nasa.gov/home/index.htmlhttp://messenger.jhuapl.edu/http://messenger.jhuapl.edu/http://messenger.jhuapl.edu/http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/http://planetarypolicy.org/RA_REPORT_DEC12/NASA_PSD_RA_Report.pdfhttp://planetarypolicy.org/RA_REPORT_DEC12/NASA_PSD_RA_Report.pdfhttp://planetarypolicy.org/RA_REPORT_DEC12/NASA_PSD_RA_Report.pdfhttp://planetarypolicy.org/RA_REPORT_DEC12/NASA_PSD_RA_Report.pdfhttp://planetarypolicy.org/RA_REPORT_DEC12/NASA_PSD_RA_Report.pdfhttp://planetarypolicy.org/RA_REPORT_DEC12/NASA_PSD_RA_Report.pdfhttp://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/http://messenger.jhuapl.edu/http://stardust.jpl.nasa.gov/home/index.htmlhttp://dawn.jpl.nasa.gov/http://moon.mit.edu/http://discovery.nasa.gov/lib/pdf/HistoricalDiscoveryProgramInformation.pdfhttp://www.planetary.org/blogs/casey-dreier/20121204-the-2020-rover-in-context.htmlhttp://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2012/12051226-response-2020-rover.html

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ne solution to these problems is for NASA to follow the Decadal Surveys recommendations (and Congressional instructions: see theHouse

port language for Planetary science) to protect and expand R&A, maintain a steady rate of cost-effective Discovery and New Frontiers missi

nd delay major investments in Flagship missions until funds are available. A better solution is not necessarily a politically popular one: incre

ASAs budget for planetary science so that all these goals can be achieved.

ASA is such a high-profile agency that the public thinks it spends much more money than it actually does. If every American old enough to v

ecided to give up one cup of coffee or a six-pack of soda and could donate that money to support planetary science, we would have been able

art work on all three recent finalist mission candidates for the Discovery program not only the Mars seismic station that was selected, but

boat to sail the seas of Titanand a spacecraft toexplore the surface of a comet.

these difficult economic times, however, scientists know we must share sacrifice with our fellow citizens, and we are doing so and have been

oing so. Eventually, however, we all hope and expect easier times to return to our country. As long as humans have sent machines to explore

lar system, Americans have played a leading role, and our achievements along with those of other spacefaring nations have thrilled the worl

With the long lead times necessary to plan planetary missions, it is not too soon to start thinking about missions that may not launch for a dec

evidenced by the beginning of work on the 2020 Mars rover. Yet NASAs apparent disregard for the clear recommendations ofthe Decadal

urvey concerning the relative priorities of Flagship vs. Discovery missions causes much concern.

iven the complicated relationship mentioned earlier, many of us are uncomfortable appearing to criticize NASA or wondering if we are break

w against lobbying by doing so. However, professional societies and citizen supporters are starting to be more active in promoting the benef

anetary science, and all of the high-priority items in the DS, to our government and fellow Americans. The Division for Planetary Sciences a

merican Geophysical Union, major professional societies, have made several statements related to the NASA budget, as have groups of scien

nthusiasts like the Planetary Society. We hope to increase our engagement and improve the prospects of achieving the highest-priority goals

anetary science, including sustaining the health of the scientific community. With continued support from NASA and the American people,

ill continue to learn more about all objects in the solar system from the sun-baked plains of Mercury to the expanses where the Voyager

acecraft still gather data, and beyond. Yes, including Mars.

he 2012 Apocalypse, or Why the WorldWont End This Week

you believe The Daily Mail, were all convinced that the world is going to end on 21 st December 2012. Apparently people arestockpiling food

eapons,flocking to remote villagesandheading for mystical peaksfrom whence an extra-terrestrial mothership housed for centuries in an a

mple inside the mountain will pluck believers to safety. With ten days to go before the Mayan apocalypse supposedly casts Earth into obliv

me is running out for believers to find alien salvation theMailproclaims.

o why all the recent hysteria? According to Maya myth, the world was created on 11 August 3114 BC in the Gregorian Calendar; or 13.0.0.0.0

e Maya count. This creation was the fourth incarnation of the world, the previous age having ended after the thirteenth baktun (a c.400-ye

cle). On 21stDecember, it will once again be 13.0.0.0.0 and the Great Cycle will be completed, bringing the thirteenth baktun of the curren

an end. Some translations of the glyphs from apartially illegible Maya stelasuggest that the end of the present baktunwill see the descen

e god Bolon Yookte KUh (sometimes translated as the Nine-Footed God). This convergence of dates and prophecies has been seen as mar

e transition to the next world, and hence the end of this one.

or many years, a scarcity of Maya calendrical references to dates post-2012 was also seen as a possible indication of a cataclysmic end to the

is December. But, quite apart from the question of practicalities (I mean, how many of you have a calendar on your desk which reaches to 2

baktun from now?) even this tenuous evidence has recently been refuted by the discovery of an earlyMaya mural in Xultnwhich includes

lendrical and cosmological calculations stretching some 7,000 years into the future. Certainly, the Precolumbian Maya might have consider

st December 2012 a symbolic date, a moment of potential transformation. But does that mean they thought the world would end?

s easy to mockThe Daily Mail(far, far too easy) but for some people, the prospect of apocalypse is a very real fear. David Morrison, of NASA

strobiology Institute, says that they have receivedthousands of questions about the 2012 doomsday predictions, some of them from people w

ave considered suicide, because they are so terrified by the horrific idea of living through the end of the world. Some people are clearly deepl

http://www.aip.org/fyi/2012/064.htmlhttp://www.aip.org/fyi/2012/064.htmlhttp://www.aip.org/fyi/2012/064.htmlhttp://www.aip.org/fyi/2012/064.htmlhttp://youtu.be/RQhNZENMG1ohttp://youtu.be/RQhNZENMG1ohttp://youtu.be/RQhNZENMG1ohttp://blogs.discovermagazine.com/80beats/2011/05/10/nasas-proposed-space-faring-boat-would-cruise-and-study-titans-oceans/#.UMkjq4VTMS4http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/80beats/2011/05/10/nasas-proposed-space-faring-boat-would-cruise-and-study-titans-oceans/#.UMkjq4VTMS4http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2012/05/chopper-comet-hopper-discovery-proposal.htmlhttp://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2012/05/chopper-comet-hopper-discovery-proposal.htmlhttp://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2012/05/chopper-comet-hopper-discovery-proposal.htmlhttp://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraftDisplay.do?id=1962-041Ahttp://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraftDisplay.do?id=1962-041Ahttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2012/12/18/the-2012-apocalypse-or-why-the-world-wont-end-this-week/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2012/12/18/the-2012-apocalypse-or-why-the-world-wont-end-this-week/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2012/12/18/the-2012-apocalypse-or-why-the-world-wont-end-this-week/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2012/12/18/the-2012-apocalypse-or-why-the-world-wont-end-this-week/http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2240239/Armageddon-houses-Brit-preppers-stockpiling-food-weapons-preparation-end-world.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2240239/Armageddon-houses-Brit-preppers-stockpiling-food-weapons-preparation-end-world.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2240239/Armageddon-houses-Brit-preppers-stockpiling-food-weapons-preparation-end-world.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2240239/Armageddon-houses-Brit-preppers-stockpiling-food-weapons-preparation-end-world.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-2246432/Mayan-end-world-Increase-way-flight-ticket-searches-destinations-safe-Mayan-doomsday.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-2246432/Mayan-end-world-Increase-way-flight-ticket-searches-destinations-safe-Mayan-doomsday.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-2246432/Mayan-end-world-Increase-way-flight-ticket-searches-destinations-safe-Mayan-doomsday.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2246305/Doomsday-fanatics-flock-Mount-Rtanj-believers-say-houses-alien-pyramid-magic-powers.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2246305/Doomsday-fanatics-flock-Mount-Rtanj-believers-say-houses-alien-pyramid-magic-powers.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2246305/Doomsday-fanatics-flock-Mount-Rtanj-believers-say-houses-alien-pyramid-magic-powers.htmlhttp://decipherment.wordpress.com/2011/10/04/more-on-tortugueros-monument-6-and-the-prophecy-that-wasnt/http://decipherment.wordpress.com/2011/10/04/more-on-tortugueros-monument-6-and-the-prophecy-that-wasnt/http://decipherment.wordpress.com/2011/10/04/more-on-tortugueros-monument-6-and-the-prophecy-that-wasnt/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18018343http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18018343http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18018343http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/11/091106-2012-movie-end-world-fears-maya-predictions.htmlhttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/11/091106-2012-movie-end-world-fears-maya-predictions.htmlhttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/11/091106-2012-movie-end-world-fears-maya-predictions.htmlhttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/11/091106-2012-movie-end-world-fears-maya-predictions.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18018343http://decipherment.wordpress.com/2011/10/04/more-on-tortugueros-monument-6-and-the-prophecy-that-wasnt/http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2246305/Doomsday-fanatics-flock-Mount-Rtanj-believers-say-houses-alien-pyramid-magic-powers.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-2246432/Mayan-end-world-Increase-way-flight-ticket-searches-destinations-safe-Mayan-doomsday.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2240239/Armageddon-houses-Brit-preppers-stockpiling-food-weapons-preparation-end-world.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2240239/Armageddon-houses-Brit-preppers-stockpiling-food-weapons-preparation-end-world.htmlhttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2012/12/18/the-2012-apocalypse-or-why-the-world-wont-end-this-week/http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraftDisplay.do?id=1962-041Ahttp://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2012/05/chopper-comet-hopper-discovery-proposal.htmlhttp://blogs.discovermagazine.com/80beats/2011/05/10/nasas-proposed-space-faring-boat-would-cruise-and-study-titans-oceans/#.UMkjq4VTMS4http://youtu.be/RQhNZENMG1ohttp://www.aip.org/fyi/2012/064.htmlhttp://www.aip.org/fyi/2012/064.html

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oubled by the recent obsession with apocalypse, but that the origins of their fear lie in a highly disputed and extremely tenuous Maya proph

fascinating and baffling situation.

ccording to the Maya legends eloquently recorded in the sixteenth-century Popol Vuh, humans were created in this, the fourth world, when

ods moulded our ancestors from maize dough (after unsuccessful attempts at fashioning men from monkeys, wood and clay). I doubt that m

the so-called preppers who are preparing themselves for the end of the world or an ascent into the stars with their alien overlords believe

e Precolumbian myths of creation, so (even if we had conclusive evidence of a Maya belief in a 2012 apocalypse) why would they believe in th

yths of destruction? And if you dont believe me, why not listen to the Maya themselves. Modern-day Maya see the apocalypse as a Europea

vention. For them, the end of the baktun is a time of renewal and celebration, a new beginning, not an end.

o, despite the spectre of impending doom, Im going to carry on Christmas shopping, and looking forward to my imminent research leave, se

the knowledge that the ancient Maya didnt believe the world will end on Friday. And even if they did, I dont.

sychology Reveals the Comforts of the Apocalypse

ecember 21, according to much-hyped misreadings of the Mayan calendar, will mark the end of the world. Its not the first end is nigh

oclamationand its unlikely to be the last. Thats because, deep down for various reasons, theres something appealingat least to some of

bout the end of the world.

njoy the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

niversity of Minnesota neuroscientistShmuel Lissek, who studies the fear system, believes that at its heart, the concept of doomsday evokes

nate and ancient bias in most mammals. The initial response to any hint of alarm is fear. This is the architecture with which were built, Li

ys. Over evolutionary history, organisms with a better-safe-than-sorry approach survive. This mechanism has had consequences for both th

ody and brain, where the fast-acting amygdala can activate a fearful stress response before higher cortical areas have a chance to assess the

tuation and respond more rationally.

ut why would anyone enjoy kindling this fearful response? Lissek suspects that some apocalyptic believers find the idea that the end is nigh t

alidating. Individuals with a history of traumatic experiences, for example, may be fatalistic. For these people, finding a group of like-minded

talists is reassuring. There may also be comfort in being able to attribute doom to some larger cosmic ordersuch as an ancient Mayan prop

his kind of mythology removes any sense of individual responsibility.

heres an even broader allure to knowing the precise end date. Apocalyptic beliefs make existential threatsthe fear of our mortality

edictable, Lissek says. Lissek, in collaboration with National Institute of Mental Health neuroscientist Christian Grillon and colleagues, ha

und that when an unpleasant or painful experience, such as an electric shock, is predictable, we relax. The anxiety produced by uncertainty

one. Knowing when the end will come doesnt appeal equally to everyone, of coursebut for many of us its paradoxically a reason

stopworrying.

his also means people can focus on preparing. Doomsday preppers who assemble their bunker and canned food, Lissek believes, are engaged

oal-oriented behaviors, which are a proven therapy in times of trouble.

he Power of Knowledge

eyond the universal aspects of fear and our survival response to it, certain personality traits may make individuals more susceptible to believ

s the end of the world. Social psychologistKaren Douglasat the University of Kent studies conspiracy theorists and suspects that her study

ubjects, in some cases, share attributes with those who believe in an impending apocalypse. She points out that, although these are essentiall

fferent phenomena, certain apocalyptic beliefs are also at the heart of conspiracy theoriesfor example, the belief that government agencies

now about an impending disaster and are intentionally hiding this fact to prevent panic.

One trait I see linking the two is the feeling of powerlessness, often connected to a mistrust in authority, Douglas says.Among conspiracy

eorists, these convictions of mistrust and impotence make their conspiracies more preciousand real. People feel like they have knowledge

hers do not.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/end-of-the-world-hear-the-2012-prophecy-direct-from-the-mouths-of-the-mayan-priests/5314814http://www.globalresearch.ca/end-of-the-world-hear-the-2012-prophecy-direct-from-the-mouths-of-the-mayan-priests/5314814http://www.globalresearch.ca/end-of-the-world-hear-the-2012-prophecy-direct-from-the-mouths-of-the-mayan-priests/5314814http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/12/18/psychology-reveals-the-comforts-of-the-apocalypse/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/12/18/psychology-reveals-the-comforts-of-the-apocalypse/http://www.psych.umn.edu/people/facultyprofile.php?UID=smlissekhttp://www.psych.umn.edu/people/facultyprofile.php?UID=smlissekhttp://www.psych.umn.edu/people/facultyprofile.php?UID=smlissekhttp://www.kent.ac.uk/psychology/people/douglask/http://www.kent.ac.uk/psychology/people/douglask/http://www.kent.ac.uk/psychology/people/douglask/http://www.kent.ac.uk/psychology/people/douglask/http://www.psych.umn.edu/people/facultyprofile.php?UID=smlissekhttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/12/18/psychology-reveals-the-comforts-of-the-apocalypse/http://www.globalresearch.ca/end-of-the-world-hear-the-2012-prophecy-direct-from-the-mouths-of-the-mayan-priests/5314814

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elatively few studies exist on the individuals who start and propagate these theories. Douglas points out that research into the psychology of

ersuasion has found that those who believe most are also most motivated to broadcast their beliefs. In the Internet age, tha ts an easier feat t

ver before.

essons from Dystopia

even Schlozman, drawing both from his experiences as a Harvard Medical School child psychiatrist and novelist (his first book recounts a zo

pocalypse) believes its the post-apocalyptic landscape that fascinates people most.

talk to kids in my practice and they see it as a good thing. They say, life would be so simpleId shoot some zombies and wouldnt have to g

hool, Schlozman says. In both literature and in speaking with patients, Schlozman has noticed that people frequently romanticize the end

mes. They imagine surviving, thriving and going back to nature.

chlozman recently had an experience that eerily echoed Orson Welless 1938 The War of the Worlds broadcast. He was discussing his book o

dio program and they had to cut the show short when listeners misconstrued his fiction for fact. He believes the propensity to panic is not

nstant in history but instead reflects the times. In todays complicated world with terrorism, war, fiscal cliffs and clima te change, people are

imed for panic.

All of this uncertainty and all of this fear comes together and people think maybe life would be better after a disaster, Schlozman says. Of co

truth, most of their post-apocalyptic dreams are just fantasies that ignore the real hardships of pioneer life and crumbling infrastructure. H

oints out that, if anything, tales of apocalypse, particularly involving zombies, should ideally teach us something about the world we should

voidand how to make necessary changes now.

hysicists Find a Backdoor Way to Do Experiments on Exotic Gravitational Physics

he whole point of an explanation is to reduce something you dont know to something you do. By that standard, you dont gain much by

plaining anything in terms of black holes. Appealing to themost mysterious objects known to scienceas an explanation sounds likeusing on

ystery to explain another.

et this is precisely what physicists have been doing to make sense of high-temperature superconductors and plasmas of nuclear particles. Bo

ese states of matter are about as un-black-hole-like as you can imagine. They dont suck you to your deathindeed, the force of gravity play

le in them at alland they dont split open the very foundations of physics. They are hard to understand in much the same way Earths clim

e laws governing their constituents are perfectly well-known, but there are just so damned many constituents.

the course of studying black holes, however, string theorists have discovered unexpected para llels, or dualities, between gravitational sys

nd non-gravitational ones. These correspondences may be purely mathematical or may reflect deeper physical linkages, but either way, you c

verage your knowledge of one domain to solve problems in another.In the January issue ofSci Am, Harvard physicist Subir Sachdev describ

ow to take analyses of gravitational phenomena and apply them to otherwise intractable problems regarding superconductors. Sabine

ossenfelder at Backreactionblogged on this topicrecently, too, although she presumed a comfort level with vector fields and critical points.

ut what about running the dualities in the other direction, using laboratory measurements of extreme materials to probe exotic gravitational

hysics? At an afternoon coffee-and-cookie break this spring at the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics, string theorist Ramy Brustein of Be

urion University in Israel told me a way to do just that. He and Joey Medved of Rhodes University in South Africa have sincewritten up thei

oposal. An expert on nuclear plasmas, Raju Venugopalan at the Brookhaven National Lab, likes the idea of returning the favor that string

eorists have paid his subject area. Can these experiments be used to learn about aspects of gravity? Venugopalan wonders.That would ju

phenomenon.

he experiments in question entail smashing gold or lead nuclei together to create plasmas of quarks and gluons. When Brookhavens RHIC

celerator, following upearlier discoveries at CERN, firstcreated these plasmas in 2005, physicists were flummoxed. Theyd predicted the pla

ould behave like a gas, since quarks and gluons interact only weakly under the conditions that RHIC achieved. But the particulate debris bet

essure gradients that a gas cannot sustain. The plasmas must actually be liquid. Evidently the sheer number of particles compensated for the

herent weakness of their interactions.

http://www.massgeneral.org/psychiatry/doctors/doctor.aspx?id=18153http://www.massgeneral.org/psychiatry/doctors/doctor.aspx?id=18153http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/critical-opalescence/2012/12/18/physicists-find-a-backdoor-way-to-do-experiments-on-exotic-gravitational-physics/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/critical-opalescence/2012/12/18/physicists-find-a-backdoor-way-to-do-experiments-on-exotic-gravitational-physics/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/critical-opalescence/2012/12/14/when-you-fall-into-a-black-hole-how-long-have-you-got/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/critical-opalescence/2012/12/14/when-you-fall-into-a-black-hole-how-long-have-you-got/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/critical-opalescence/2012/12/14/when-you-fall-into-a-black-hole-how-long-have-you-got/http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/goldstein09/goldstein09_index.htmlhttp://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/goldstein09/goldstein09_index.htmlhttp://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/goldstein09/goldstein09_index.htmlhttp://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/goldstein09/goldstein09_index.htmlhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-illusion-of-gravityhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-illusion-of-gravityhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-illusion-of-gravityhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=string-theory-helps-explain-quantum-phases-matterhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=string-theory-helps-explain-quantum-phases-matterhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=string-theory-helps-explain-quantum-phases-matterhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=string-theory-helps-explain-quantum-phases-matterhttp://backreaction.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-holey-grail-and-its-dual-from.htmlhttp://backreaction.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-holey-grail-and-its-dual-from.htmlhttp://backreaction.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-holey-grail-and-its-dual-from.htmlhttp://arxiv.org/abs/1207.5388http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.5388http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.5388http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.5388http://www.phys.utk.edu/rhip/Articles/SciAm/Scientific%20American%20Fireballs%20of%20Free%20Quarks.htmhttp://www.phys.utk.edu/rhip/Articles/SciAm/Scientific%20American%20Fireballs%20of%20Free%20Quarks.htmhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-first-few-microsecond-2006-05http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-first-few-microsecond-2006-05http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-first-few-microsecond-2006-05http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-first-few-microsecond-2006-05http://www.phys.utk.edu/rhip/Articles/SciAm/Scientific%20American%20Fireballs%20of%20Free%20Quarks.htmhttp://arxiv.org/abs/1207.5388http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.5388http://backreaction.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-holey-grail-and-its-dual-from.htmlhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=string-theory-helps-explain-quantum-phases-matterhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-illusion-of-gravityhttp://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/goldstein09/goldstein09_index.htmlhttp://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/goldstein09/goldstein09_index.htmlhttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/critical-opalescence/2012/12/14/when-you-fall-into-a-black-hole-how-long-have-you-got/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/critical-opalescence/2012/12/18/physicists-find-a-backdoor-way-to-do-experiments-on-exotic-gravitational-physics/http://www.massgeneral.org/psychiatry/doctors/doctor.aspx?id=18153

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heorists were at a loss to calculate basic parameters of the fluid, such as viscosityloosely speaking, the friction of fluid flow. The best they c

anage was a rough argument based on Heisenbergs uncertainty principle. Viscosity depends on the energy of the fluids constituent particle

e average time between successive particle collisions, and the uncertainty principle relates these two quantities, thereby implying a minimu

ossible value to the viscosity (as explainedhere). Even a so-called superfluid cant evade Dr. Heisenbergs strictures. A gas actually has a fairl

rge viscosity, since its particles are spaced farther apart and collide less frequently than those in a liquid. (A technical note: by viscosity, I r

ean the ratio of viscosity to density.)

ut what exactly the minimum value should be, theorists couldnt tell, until Dam Son of the University of Washington and his colleaguesappl

uality. They equated the viscosity of a fluid to gravitational waves caroming off a black hole in higher-dimensional spacewhich, even for a

hysicist, is not an analogy that springs to mind. That was a big surprise, Brustein says. The fact you can calculate hydrodynamical parame

om gravity was not understood. The answer: 1/4, in the appropriate units. The viscosity measured by RHIC comes close. Water, some 400

mes more viscous, is molasses in comparison.

urprisingly, the minimum value is the same for all fluids, whatever they are made of. Through the logic of duality, this universality has a sim

planation: Viscosity is equivalent to a gravitational phenomenon, and according to Einsteins general theory of relativity, gravitation is blind

mpositional details.

his is the line of reasoning Brustein hopes to flip around. The way he tells the story, it all started on an extended visit to CERN during the sn

inter in Europe two years ago. Brustein was out shoveling his driveway in the French village of Thoiry and got talking to his neighbor. Turne

e neighbor was the technical director of the ALICE experiment, which is CERNs answer to RHIC. Not lo ng after, Brustein bumped into the

LICE team leader at a formal dinner. Clearly it was meant to be. Some months later, Brustein sat with ALICE scientists in the CERN cafeteri

etched out his ideas on a napkin (see photo above). Even if they dont work out, Brustein has at least checked off two items on physicists lis

00 things to do before you die: (1) napkin sketch, and (2) CERN cafeteria, a storied hangout where scientists have come up with such ideas

World Wide Web.

rusteins insight was that viscosity is not the only fluid property you can measure. Shape is another. If the duality is valid, viscosity and shap

e related in a way that pins down the corresponding theory of gravity. Hes looking for new observables that are a bit more discriminating th

scosity, Venugopalan says.

or instance, if Einsteins general relativity governs the gravitational dual, the minimum viscosity will equal 1/4 and the plasma should be

herically symmetrical. Nuclear physicists would not expect an ephemeral roiling fireball to have such symmetry, so this counts as a strong a

gnificant prediction. Its an actual way of proving the quark-gluon plasma has a gravitational dual, Brustein says. Things get even more

teresting if Einsteins theory is only an approximation to a deeper theory, as string theory holds. Then the viscosity value will differ from 1/4

nd may no longer be universal among substances; the plasma shape will gain some angular structure (a quadrupolar correlation function, to

chnical). So the experiment is able to probe post-Einsteinian physics.

o be sure, these measurements would notprobe the law of gravity that governs our universe, but only the law of gravity that is implicit in the

asma dynamics. That is to say, the plasmas fluid behavior can be thought of as related to some hypothetical universe where gravity acts a ce

ay. That universe may or may not be a model for ours. What the measurements woulddo, however, is test the general concept of duality, wh

urrently has the status of a conjecture, and validate it as a tool in the search for a unified theory.

rusteins biggest challenge is not the physics per se; it is to persuade RHIC and ALICE experimentalists to take the data he needs. Typically

perimentalists measure just the numbers of particles coming out in different directions, rather than the details of the particles energy and

omentum. Venugopolan cautions: Though I appreciate where Brustein is coming from and it would be indeed great if one can make an

mpirical determination of these questions, there are a large number of nontrivial issues to resolve before one gets there. Particle experimen

e busy people these days and have no shortage of ideas for what to look for. So Brustein might have to eat a lot more cookies and shovel mor

iveways to convince them.

When You Fall Into a Black Hole, How Long Have You Got?

http://physics.usc.edu/~johnson1/pt_johnson0510.pdfhttp://physics.usc.edu/~johnson1/pt_johnson0510.pdfhttp://physics.usc.edu/~johnson1/pt_johnson0510.pdfhttp://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0405231http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0405231http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0405231http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0405231http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/critical-opalescence/2012/12/14/when-you-fall-into-a-black-hole-how-long-have-you-got/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/critical-opalescence/2012/12/14/when-you-fall-into-a-black-hole-how-long-have-you-got/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/critical-opalescence/2012/12/14/when-you-fall-into-a-black-hole-how-long-have-you-got/http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0405231http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0405231http://physics.usc.edu/~johnson1/pt_johnson0510.pdf

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chatting with colleagues after a talk this week, Joe Polchinski said hed love to fall into a black hole. Most theoretical physicists would. Its n

ecause they have some peculiar death wish or because science funding prospects are so dark these days. They are just insanely curious about

ould happen. Black holes are where the known laws of physics come into their most direct conflict. The worst trouble is the black hole

formation paradox that Stephen Hawking loosed upon the worldin 1976. Polchinski and his colleagues have shown that the predicament is

orse than physicists used to think.

first heard about their brainstorm while visiting the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics in Santa Barbara this spring, and the teamPolch

nd fellow Santa Barbarans Don Marolf, Ahmed Almheiri, and James Sullywrote it upover the summer. Polchinskiblogged about ita few m

o, and another theorist who helped to usher in the idea, John Preskill,did solast week. Polchinskis talk to the New York University physics

epartment drew a standing-room-only crowd, not a single person snuck out early, and he was still fending questions an hour after it ended.

most as much has been written about Hawkings original paradox (includingby me) as about the fiscal cliff, so Ill jump straight to the new

rsion. Step #1 of the argument is what Polchinski and his co-authors call the no-drama principle. According to current theories of physics

ack hole is mostly just empty space. Its perimeter or event horizon is not a material surface, but just a hypothetical location that marks the

oint of no return. Once inside, you are gripped too tightly by gravity ever to get back out. By then, falling at nearly the speed of light, you hav

w seconds to look around before you reach the very center and get crushed into oblivion. But nothing noticeable should happen at the mome

ossing. One of Einsteins great insights was that observers who are freely fallingwhether into a black hole or toward the grounddont fee

rce of gravity, since everything around them is falling, too. As they say, its not the fall that kills you; its the sudden stop at the end.

n outside observer knows youre doomed, but likewise doesnt think anything untoward happens upon passing through the event horizon. In

is observer never sees anything actually cross over. Because of a kind of gravitational mirage, things seem to slow down and freeze in time. A

e stuff piling up at the horizon forms a ghostly membrane, which obeys the usual laws of physics and has conventional properties such as

scosity and electrical conductivity.

ep #2 is to relate these two viewpoints. To the infalling observer, space looks like a vacuum, and in quantum theory, a vacuum is a very spec

ate of affairs. It is a region of space that is empty of particles. It is nota region that is empty of everything. Theres no getting rid of the

ectromagnetic field and other fields. (If you could, the region would not merely be empty, but nonexistent.) A particle is nothing more or les

an a vibration one of these fields, and what makes a vacuum a vacuum is that all the possible vibrations cancel one another precisely, leavin

elds becalmed. To maintain this finely balanced condition, the vibrations must be thoroughly quantum-entangled with one another.

o the outgoing observer, the horizon (or membrane) cleaves space in two, and the vibrations no longer appear to cancel out. It looks like the

articles flying off in every direction. This is perfectly compatible with the infalling observers viewpoint, since the fields are what is fundamen

nd the presence of particles is a matter of perspective. To put it differently, emptiness is a holistic property in quantum physicstrue for a re

space in its entirety, but not for individual subregions.

or consistency between the two viewpoints, the outside observer infers that each particle he or she sees has a doppelgnger inside the horizo

he two are quantum-entangled, like those particles in laboratory experiments you read about. (Watch thislighthearted videothat my colleag

ade earlier this year to explain entanglement.) Individually, both particles behave completely randomly, but together they form a matched p

ee the diagram at left: the infalling observer sees vacuum state a, the outside observer sees entangled particles b and b. Particleb is part of w

hysicists call the Hawking radiation.

ep #3 is to consider the long-term fate of the hole. Like everything else in this world, black holes must decayquantum mechanics mandate

the process, a hole must gradually release everything that fell in. If Joe Polchinski jumps into a black hole, he will get scrambled with all the

her theorists who have done the same, and the morbid gruel will emerge particle by particle in the Hawking radiation. Though mangled bey

cognition, each martyr to the cause of knowledge can still be separated out and pieced back together. To enable this reconstruction, the part

the Hawking radiation must be thoroughly entangled with one another.

o, by step #2, each particle flying away from the hole must be thoroughly entangled with its doppelgnger inside the hole. By step #3, the par

ust also be thoroughly entangled with other particles that are flying away from the hole. These two conclusions clash, because quantum

http://prd.aps.org/abstract/PRD/v14/i10/p2460_1http://prd.aps.org/abstract/PRD/v14/i10/p2460_1http://prd.aps.org/abstract/PRD/v14/i10/p2460_1http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.3123http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.3123http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2012/09/27/guest-post-joe-polchinski-on-black-holes-complementarity-and-firewalls/http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2012/09/27/guest-post-joe-polchinski-on-black-holes-complementarity-and-firewalls/http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2012/09/27/guest-post-joe-polchinski-on-black-holes-complementarity-and-firewalls/http://quantumfrontiers.com/2012/12/03/is-alice-burning-the-black-hole-firewall-controversy/http://quantumfrontiers.com/2012/12/03/is-alice-burning-the-black-hole-firewall-controversy/http://quantumfrontiers.com/2012/12/03/is-alice-burning-the-black-hole-firewall-controversy/http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1592577024/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1592577024&linkCode=as2&tag=thecomidisgui-20http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1592577024/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1592577024&linkCode=as2&tag=thecomidisgui-20http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1592577024/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1592577024&linkCode=as2&tag=thecomidisgui-20http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/01/30/george-and-johns-excellent-adventures-in-quantum-entanglement-video/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/01/30/george-and-johns-excellent-adventures-in-quantum-entanglement-video/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/01/30/george-and-johns-excellent-adventures-in-quantum-entanglement-video/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/01/30/george-and-johns-excellent-adventures-in-quantum-entanglement-video/http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1592577024/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1592577024&linkCode=as2&tag=thecomidisgui-20http://quantumfrontiers.com/2012/12/03/is-alice-burning-the-black-hole-firewall-controversy/http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2012/09/27/guest-post-joe-polchinski-on-black-holes-complementarity-and-firewalls/http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.3123http://prd.aps.org/abstract/PRD/v14/i10/p2460_1

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echanics says that particles are monogamous. They cant be thoroughly entangled with more than one other partner at a time. They can be

artially entangled, but that is not enough to ensure consistency between the observers view or to reconstruct the infalling physicists.

his formulation of the black-hole paradox vindicates Hawkings original argument. For years physicists hoped that the devil lay in the details

at more precise calculations would reveal an escape routeonly to be serially disappointed. Now they have officially given up hope. One of t

asic premises must be wrongwhich is to say, something deep about modern physics must be wrong. You need huge changes, not just quan

avitational corrections, to invalidate Hawkings argument, Polchinski told the assembled multitudes at NYU.

ore surprisingly, Polchinski and his co-authors have shown that a popular approach known as black-hole complementarity, championed by

eonard Susskind of Stanford University, isnt up to the task, either. Susskind reasoned that, although infalling and outside observers might s

fferent and mutually incompatible events, no single observer can be both infalling and outside, so no single observer is ever faced with a dir

ntradiction. In that case, the paradox is only ever conceptualsuggesting it is somehow illusory, the product of thinking about the situation

e wrong way. But Polchinski and colleagues showed that a single observer can catch a particle in the act of polygamy by first lingering outsid

ole and then jumping in.

he least radical conclusion is that the no-drama principle is false. Someone falling into a black hole doesnt pass uneventfully through the ho

ut hits a wall of fire and is instantly incinerated. I think its crazy, Polchinski admitted. But in order for a black hole to decay and its conten

ill out, as quantum mechanics demands, the infalling observer cant see just a vacuum. The firewall idea strikes me as similar to past specul

at black holes are somehow material objectsso-calledblack starsordark matter starsrather than merely blank space.

spent 20 years confused bythis, Polchinski said, and now Im as confused as ever. It would be nice to answer the question, if only so that

ne ever has to undertake the journey to answer the question.

Winter Storm Bears Down on Midwest After Dumping Snow on Rockies

he first major winter storm of the season, which started Tuesday in the Rocky mountains, could dump more than a foot of snow in some a re

e central Plains late Wednesday, the National Weather Service said. CHICAGO (Reuters) - The first major winter storm of the season, whic

arted Tuesday in the Rocky mountains, could dump more than a foot of snow in some areas of the central Plains late Wednesday, the

ationalWeatherService said.

t has evolved into a full-fledged blizzard around the Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas border area..." said Alex Sosnowski, meteorologist for

ccuweather.com. "It's a pretty nasty storm."

e said the wind attached to the storm is also blowing dust in the West Texas area, causing traffic accidents.

Colorado, Interstate 70 was closed east of Denver to the Kansas state line due to high winds blowing snow into drifts and reducing visibility

indy Crane, spokeswoman for the Colorado Department ofTransportation.

everal other roads in eastern Colorado were closed because of the blizzard conditions, she said.

rane also said a stretch of Interstate 70 in the mountains near the ski resort of Vail was closed temporarily on Wednesday so crews could do s

ork to prevent avalanches.

he storm marks a major change from the mild December so far in most of the nation, Sosnowski said. This means many parts of the country

e a White Christmas. More storms are expected in the middle of next week.

izzard warnings have been issued Wednesday in parts of Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan

eteorologists said.

he heaviest snow is falling at a rate of up to an inch per hour in parts of Nebraska, Kansas and Colorado. The worst of the blizzard is expecte

t communities from Omaha, Nebraska, to Green Bay, Wisconsin, Wednesday night into late Thursday, according to Accuweather.com.

Chicago, the storm is expected to begin as rain and later change to snow Thursday, Sosnowski said.

eavy snow and high winds were expected anywhere from the central plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes regions through much of the day

hursday, the National Weather Service said. Hazardous travel conditions were expected through Thursday and into early Friday.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=black-stars-not-holeshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=black-stars-not-holeshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=frozen-starshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=frozen-starshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=weatherhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=weatherhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=weatherhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=transportationhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=transportationhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=transportationhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=transportationhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/topic.cfm?id=weatherhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=frozen-starshttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=black-stars-not-holes

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oisture off the Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause rain in the lower Mississippi River Valley Thursday, pushing east into the southeastern st

riday.

the West, a system along the Pacific coast will bring scattered snow and rain showers into the northwestern states, according to the weathe

rvice. Over a foot of snow is expected in the higher elevations of the Washington Cascades and upper Rockies.

uest Post: Are Microgrids the Key to Energy Security?

Energy independence is a concept that has become part of the political lexicon and touted as a panacea for a downturn economy. Recently,

econcept has morphed into energy securitywhich encompasses not only a domestic abundance of energy resources, but freedom from en

arket manipulation. Still, there are numerous and conflicting definitions for energy security. Does energy security mean using only renewab

rbon-neutral energy resources to prevent further anthropogenic global warming? How do fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, fit into a secu

nergy future? One thing is certain we know an energy security failure we when we see itor worse, experience it. The aftermath of Superst

andy was the most recent example of how vulnerable society is to disruptions in energy supply. According to the Department of Energy,mor

an 8.6 million customerswere without power following Sandy, more than any other storm in history. However, amidst the extensive Northe

ackouts wereislands of powerthat may point the way to true energy security. Microgrids kept the lights on when the electric transmission

stem failed.

microgrid is the interconnection of local generating resources and electric users (loads) optimized for reactive and sustainable operation. As

pposed to the large, centralized generating plants that provide thebackbone of the transmission grid, microgrids utilize distributed generatio

DG), which can be derived from conventional generators, fuel cells, efficient combined heat and power systems, and renewable energy source

though microgrid systems may normally be connected to regional transmission networks, they also have the ability to be self-sustaining or

slanded when the electric grid goes down.

he Climate Change Case for Microgrids

ver the last two years (2011 and 2012) fourteen (14) extreme weather events, each causing more than a billion dollars in damage have occurr

e U.S., according to theCenter for American Progress. Many of these events have caused widespread power outages. Ongoingdrought is als

uge concern, as many energy technologies rely heavily on water, including steam electric power and natural gas fracking. According to

eInternational Energy Agency (IEA), 50 percent of global water usage is for energy production. While nationally there has not been a

ordinated policy effort to address energy security impacts from climate change, the situation is causing some states to investigate microgrid

lution. After a series of storms walloped the state with large-scale outages,Connecticut is exploring policyto encourage microgrid developm

onnecticut will be an important case study in how policy must be crafted to facilitate adoption, and the issues involved with community-base

icrogrids including parity, utility involvement, and economics.

he sustainability of energy supply amidst emergencies that take down regional power systems has been a primary driver for microgrids. Cons

e difference between the microgrid approach andcentralized power generation. Centralized power generation relies heavily on large baseloa

uclear, coal, and natural gas plants. Disruption of power between the centralized generating plants and the delivery of that electric to end use

n occur anywhere along the network of transformers, transmission lines and substations that is hundreds of miles long. Vulnerability is not

mited to winds and flooding. Voltage instabilities, equipment malfunctions, unplanned generator outages, terrorist attacks, ice, and lightnin

use widespread blackouts. In contrast, a microgrid system has multiple (and often diverse) generating sources as well as energy storage

pability that are local to end users. Control is also local, allowing responsiveness to instabilities in the transmission grid, compensating load

duction, and efficient deployment of available generation.

heU.S. militaryhas been exploring the use of microgrids for obvious energy security needs during field operations. A recentDepartment of

efense (DoD) studycataloged 44 existing, planned, or demonstrated DoD microgrid installations. Other applications for microgrids

cluderemote areas that do not have access to larger transmission networks , hospitals, data centers, and other mission critical systems that c

ford to lose power. Two noteworthy institutional microgrids are the Santa Rita jailand the living laboratorymicrogrid at UC San Diego. In

etherlands,PowerMatching Cityis a 22-home community where advanced microgrid technologies are being demonstrated. These microgrid

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/2012/12/18/guest-post-are-microgrids-the-key-to-energy-security/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/2012/12/18/guest-post-are-microgrids-the-key-to-energy-security/https://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-UnitedStates/Local%20Assets/Documents/Federal/us_fed_Election_Series_101012.pdfhttps://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-UnitedStates/Local%20Assets/Documents/Federal/us_fed_Election_Series_101012.pdfhttps://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-UnitedStates/Local%20Assets/Documents/Federal/us_fed_Election_Series_101012.pdfhttp://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/docs/SitRep13_Sandy-Nor%27easter_120312_300PM.pdfhttp://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/docs/SitRep13_Sandy-Nor%27easter_120312_300PM.pdfhttp://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/docs/SitRep13_Sandy-Nor%27easter_120312_300PM.pdfhttp://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/docs/SitRep13_Sandy-Nor%27easter_120312_300PM.pdfhttp://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-microgrids-helped-weather-hurricane-sandyhttp://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-microgrids-helped-weather-hurricane-sandyhttp://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-microgrids-helped-weather-hurricane-sandyhttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2012/05/17/the-backbone-of-the-electric-system-a-legacy-of-coal-and-the-challenge-of-renewables/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2012/05/17/the-backbone-of-the-electric-system-a-legacy-of-coal-and-the-challenge-of-renewables/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2012/05/17/the-backbone-of-the-electric-system-a-legacy-of-coal-and-the-challenge-of-renewables/http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/ExtremeWeather.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/ExtremeWeather.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/ExtremeWeather.pdfhttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/08/120817-record-heat-drought-pose-problems-for-electric-power-grid/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/08/120817-record-heat-drought-pose-problems-for-electric-power-grid/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/08/120817-record-heat-drought-pose-problems-for-electric-power-grid/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/08/120817-record-heat-drought-pose-problems-for-electric-power-grid/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2012/#d.en.26099http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2012/#d.en.26099http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2012/#d.en.26099http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/A-Year-After-Storms-Blackouts-A-State-Explores-High-Tech-Solutions-175871031.htmlhttp://www.nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/A-Year-After-Storms-Blackouts-A-State-Explores-High-Tech-Solutions-175871031.htmlhttp://www.nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/A-Year-After-Storms-Blackouts-A-State-Explores-High-Tech-Solutions-175871031.htmlhttp://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/decentralized-power-and-disaster-preparationhttp://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/decentralized-power-and-disaster-preparationhttp://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/decentralized-power-and-disaster-preparationhttp://www.designnews.com/document.asp?doc_id=245574&f_src=designnews_gnews&dfpPParams=ind_184,industry_gov,aid_245574&dfpLayout=article&dfpPParams=ind_184,industry_gov,aid_245574&dfpLayout=article&dfpPParams=ind_184,industry_gov,aid_245574&dfpLayout=articlehttp://www.designnews.com/document.asp?doc_id=245574&f_src=designnews_gnews&dfpPParams=ind_184,industry_gov,aid_245574&dfpLayout=article&dfpPParams=ind_184,industry_gov,aid_245574&dfpLayout=article&dfpPParams=ind_184,industry_gov,aid_245574&dfpLayout=articlehttp://www.designnews.com/document.asp?doc_id=245574&f_src=designnews_gnews&dfpPParams=ind_184,industry_gov,aid_245574&dfpLayout=article&dfpPParams=ind_184,industry_gov,aid_245574&dfpLayout=article&dfpPParams=ind_184,industry_gov,aid_245574&dfpLayout=articlehttp://serdp-estcp.org/News-and-Events/News-Announcements/Program-News/DoD-study-finds-microgrids-offer-improved-energy-security-for-DoD-installationshttp://serdp-estcp.org/News-and-Events/News-Announcements/Program-News/DoD-study-finds-microgrids-offer-improved-energy-security-for-DoD-installationshttp://serdp-estcp.org/News-and-Events/News-Announcements/Program-News/DoD-study-finds-microgrids-offer-improved-energy-security-for-DoD-installationshttp://serdp-estcp.org/News-and-Events/News-Announcements/Program-News/DoD-study-finds-microgrids-offer-improved-energy-security-for-DoD-installationshttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&sqi=2&ved=0CFwQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencetarget.com%2FJournal%2Findex.php%2FIJES%2Farticle%2Fdownload%2F95%2F23&ei=I-HPUJL2Loec9gSPgIG4Cw&usg=AFQjCNGhnz_P3LaYZFM1eDYw_Q4BucFzxg&bvm=bv.1355534169,d.eWUhttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&sqi=2&ved=0CFwQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencetarget.com%2FJournal%2Findex.php%2FIJES%2Farticle%2Fdownload%2F95%2F23&ei=I-HPUJL2Loec9gSPgIG4Cw&usg=AFQjCNGhnz_P3LaYZFM1eDYw_Q4BucFzxg&bvm=bv.1355534169,d.eWUhttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&sqi=2&ved=0CFwQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencetarget.com%2FJournal%2Findex.php%2FIJES%2Farticle%2Fdownload%2F95%2F23&ei=I-HPUJL2Loec9gSPgIG4Cw&usg=AFQjCNGhnz_P3LaYZFM1eDYw_Q4BucFzxg&bvm=bv.1355534169,d.eWUhttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/2012/06/19/california-jail-transforms-into-modern-microgrid/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/2012/06/19/california-jail-transforms-into-modern-microgrid/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/2012/06/19/california-jail-transforms-into-modern-microgrid/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEx4gm3523Ihttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEx4gm3523Ihttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEx4gm3523Ihttp://www.powermatchingcity.nl/UserPortalhttp://www.powermatchingcity.nl/UserPortalhttp://www.powermatchingcity.nl/UserPortalhttp://www.powermatchingcity.nl/UserPortalhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEx4gm3523Ihttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/2012/06/19/california-jail-transforms-into-modern-microgrid/http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&sqi=2&ved=0CFwQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencetarget.com%2FJournal%2Findex.php%2FIJES%2Farticle%2Fdownload%2F95%2F23&ei=I-HPUJL2Loec9gSPgIG4Cw&usg=AFQjCNGhnz_P3LaYZFM1eDYw_Q4BucFzxg&bvm=bv.1355534169,d.eWUhttp://serdp-estcp.org/News-and-Events/News-Announcements/Program-News/DoD-study-finds-microgrids-offer-improved-energy-security-for-DoD-installationshttp://serdp-estcp.org/News-and-Events/News-Announcements/Program-News/DoD-study-finds-microgrids-offer-improved-energy-security-for-DoD-installationshttp://www.designnews.com/document.asp?doc_id=245574&f_src=designnews_gnews&dfpPParams=ind_184,industry_gov,aid_245574&dfpLayout=article&dfpPParams=ind_184,industry_gov,aid_245574&dfpLayout=article&dfpPParams=ind_184,industry_gov,aid_245574&dfpLayout=articlehttp://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/decentralized-power-and-disaster-preparationhttp://www.nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/A-Year-After-Storms-Blackouts-A-State-Explores-High-Tech-Solutions-175871031.htmlhttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2012/#d.en.26099http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/08/120817-record-heat-drought-pose-problems-for-electric-power-grid/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/08/120817-record-heat-drought-pose-problems-for-electric-power-grid/http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/ExtremeWeather.pdfhttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2012/05/17/the-backbone-of-the-electric-system-a-legacy-of-coal-and-the-challenge-of-renewables/http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-microgrids-helped-weather-hurricane-sandyhttp://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/docs/SitRep13_Sandy-Nor%27easter_120312_300PM.pdfhttp://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/docs/SitRep13_Sandy-Nor%27easter_120312_300PM.pdfhttps://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-UnitedStates/Local%20Assets/Documents/Federal/us_fed_Election_Series_101012.pdfhttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/2012/12/18/guest-post-are-microgrids-the-key-to-energy-security/

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stems provide valuable technology vetting and learning opportunities. Globally,Pike Researchhas identified a total of 3.2 gigawatts (GW) o

isting microgrid capacity.

he Sustainability Case for Microgrids

esides improving reliability, microgrids offer other benefits including energy efficiency and integration of renewable energy sources. Microg

mploy sophisticated technology architecture and controls to allow demand response, optimizing loads in response to changes in generation,

witching to islanded operation if disruptive events in the regional transmission grid occur. Microgrids are designed and customized to the mi

ectric (and sometimes heat) needed for a particular mixed-use community or installation, and allow automated adjustable and sheddable lo

mprove efficiency and reliability.

nd because microgrids often use renewable energy sources and fuel cells, theysupport carbon reduction and green living goals. Renewable en

urces are well suited for microgrids for a couple of reasons. Regional electricity balancing authorities consider most renewable sources as

ochastic (unpredictable) and forforecasting purposestreat them as negative loads rather than a generation source. Adequate operating rese

ust be available from generating sources to meet the highest projected demand for a given time of day. That means a great deal of redundan

ome would call it waste) in generating resources. Further, if a renewable source such as a wind farm produces more generation than expecte

e transmission network must compensate for potential voltage and frequency fluctuations along transmission lines caused by that increased

ower. By matching renewable generation to demand on the load side (locally) and utilizing energy storage, microgrids help smooth out the

ariability in renewable generation delivered to the grid. A hybrid power supply also reduces reliance on traditional generator fuels such as di

opane, and gasoline.

Making the Economic Case for Microgrids

ven with a renewed attention on the energy security benefits of distributed generation and microgrids, the technology requires large upfront

vestment which can be a barrier to entry.Siemens, a key developer of microgrid power generation resources and management software, has

timated that a microgrid to support a 40 megawatt (MW) load can require an investment upwards of$150 million. Although large-scale ene

orage has been cost prohibitive, the smaller scale of microgrid storage, efficiency improvements, and the ability of local distribution network

anage intermittency are expected to improve the economics.

addition to enhanced energy security, the economic justification for microgrids includes energy savings, efficiency improvement, and reduc

missions. Because there are numerous technology options for generating resources, energy storage, smart meters, transformers, control syst

chitecture, and communication networks,microgrid planning is a complicated exercise in investment optimization. The impact of each of th

hoices on the system cost and return on investment (ROI) is not obvious.DNV KEMA, an energy and sustainability company with extensive

perience in smart grids, microgrids, and energy markets has developed an intuitive visualization tool to assist with master planning of

icrogrids. DNV KEMAs proprietaryMicrogrid Cost/Benefit Analysis modelevaluates the financial decisions for a range of technologies incl

neration, energy storage, building efficiency, load automation, thermal load management, distributed system infrastructure, telemetry and

ntrols. The location-specific optimization tool allows the user to evaluate the cost, ROI, emissions performance, reliability, and occupancy ra

e. for mixed use developments) while evaluating uncertainty and risks associated with climate, technology costs, energy prices, and changin

emand. Such optimization tools help identify long-term investment approaches, track energy balances, and quantify the duration of support

itical loads. In addition for making the business case, microgrid optimization models can also inform policymaking by comparing the impact

fferent rate structures, incentives, and new technologies.

espite the cost barriers, arecent surveyof smart grid executives commissioned byIEEEreported that hospitals and healthcare institutions w

e largest expected market for microgrids over the next five years. The report concludes that private- and public-sector funding for microgrid

nd grid-level storage projectswould advance cost-effective application of these technologies. By 2020, the global microgrid market is project

ach$13.40 billion, a nearly three-fold increase from 2012 investments.

egulatory Hurdles

http://www.pikeresearch.com/blog/devastating-storms-make-the-case-for-microgridshttp://www.pikeresearch.com/blog/devastating-storms-make-the-case-for-microgridshttp://www.pikeresearch.com/blog/devastating-storms-make-the-case-for-microgridshttp://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=71072http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=71072http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=71072http://www.ct-si.org/events/APCE2011/sld/pdf/25.pdfhttp://www.ct-si.org/events/APCE2011/sld/pdf/25.pdfhttp://www.ct-si.org/events/APCE2011/sld/pdf/25.pdfhttp://w3.usa.siemens.com/smartgrid/us/en/microgrid/pages/microgrids.aspxhttp://w3.usa.siemens.com/smartgrid/us/en/microgrid/pages/microgrids.aspxhttp://w3.usa.siemens.com/smartgrid/us/en/microgrid/pages/microgrids.aspxhttp://www.energy.siemens.com/us/pool/us/energy/energy-topics/smart-grid/downloads/The%20business%20case%20for%20microgrids_Siemens%20white%20paper.pdfhttp://www.energy.siemens.com/us/pool/us/energy/energy-topics/smart-grid/downloads/The%20business%20case%20for%20microgrids_Siemens%20white%20paper.pdfhttp://www.energy.siemens.com/us/pool/us/energy/energy-topics/smart-grid/downloads/The%20business%20case%20for%20microgrids_Siemens%20white%20paper.pdfhttp://smartgridsherpa.com/blog/how-can-microgrids-enable-us-to-optimize-the-deployment-of-distributed-energy-resourceshttp://smartgridsherpa.com/blog/how-can-microgrids-enable-us-to-optimize-the-deployment-of-distributed-energy-resourceshttp://smartgridsherpa.com/blog/how-can-microgrids-enable-us-to-optimize-the-deployment-of-distributed-energy-resourceshttp://www.dnvkema.com/http://www.dnvkema.com/http://www.dnvkema.com/http://www.dnvkema.com/Images/Microgrid%20Strategies%20and%20Solutions%20051112.pdfhttp://www.dnvkema.com/Images/Microgrid%20Strategies%20and%20Solutions%20051112.pdfhttp://www.dnvkema.com/Images/Microgrid%20Strategies%20and%20Solutions%20051112.pdfhttp://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/smart-grids-next-frontiers-dg-storage-microgridshttp://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/smart-grids-next-frontiers-dg-storage-microgridshttp://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/smart-grids-next-frontiers-dg-storage-microgridshttp://www.ieee.org/index.htmlhttp://www.ieee.org/index.htmlhttp://www.ieee.org/index.htmlhttp://tdworld.com/smart_grid_automation/ieee-smart-grid-survey-1212/http://tdworld.com/smart_grid_automation/ieee-smart-grid-survey-1212/http://tdworld.com/smart_grid_automation/ieee-smart-grid-survey-1212/http://smartgridresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sgi_reports/Microgrids_The_BRICS_Opportunity_July_2012_Smart_Grid_Insights_Zpryme_Research.pdfhttp://smartgridresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sgi_reports/Microgrids_The_BRICS_Opportunity_July_2012_Smart_Grid_Insights_Zpryme_Research.pdfhttp://smartgridresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sgi_reports/Microgrids_The_BRICS_Opportunity_July_2012_Smart_Grid_Insights_Zpryme_Research.pdfhttp://smartgridresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sgi_reports/Microgrids_The_BRICS_Opportunity_July_2012_Smart_Grid_Insights_Zpryme_Research.pdfhttp://tdworld.com/smart_grid_automation/ieee-smart-grid-survey-1212/http://www.ieee.org/index.htmlhttp://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/smart-grids-next-frontiers-dg-storage-microgridshttp://www.dnvkema.com/Images/Microgrid%20Strategies%20and%20Solutions%20051112.pdfhttp://www.dnvkema.com/http://smartgridsherpa.com/blog/how-can-microgrids-enable-us-to-optimize-the-deployment-of-distributed-energy-resourceshttp://www.energy.siemens.com/us/pool/us/energy/energy-topics/smart-grid/downloads/The%20business%20case%20for%20microgrids_Siemens%20white%20paper.pdfhttp://w3.usa.siemens.com/smartgrid/us/en/microgrid/pages/microgrids.aspxhttp://www.ct-si.org/events/APCE2011/sld/pdf/25.pdfhttp://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=71072http://www.pikeresearch.com/blog/devastating-storms-make-the-case-for-microgrids

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olicy and regulatory hurdles complicate microgrid development and can make the economics less than favorable. Issues such as regulations

overning generating asset ownership, classification of a microgrid as a distribution or steam utility under state laws, utility legal responsibilit

e provider of last resort, grid interconnection, transmission charges, rights of way, state policies on net metering that d ont apply to microgr

nd feed-in tariff structures for renewable generation present legal and regulatory hurdles. New York State conducted anextensive assessmen

gulatory definitions and legal requirements to which microgrids would be subjected, and developed a roadmap for facilitating microgrids in

ate. The comprehensive report serves as a valuable tool for developing state-level policies.

tility response to microgrid opportunities has been tepid, in part due to lack o festablished microgrid standards. In 2011 IEEE published Gu

r Design, Operation, and Integration of Distributed Resource Island Systems with Electric Power Systems and the Federa l Energy Regulato

ommission proposed implementation standards for demand response which provided much needed engineering protocols. Utilities that are

e forefront of microgrid development arerural electric cooperatives, with service areas that do not have the option of connecting to a larger

ansmission grid.

ecause of the regulatory and economic challenges, microgrids will likely remain a niche application over the next several years. But as the co

r energy storage, renewable generation, and smart grid automation become more competitive, microgrids will play an expanding role in the

uest for energy security.

heres Something in the Air: Trans-planetary Microbes

over your mouth when you cough!

Weve all learned the hard way that microbial organisms, from bacteria to viruses, can be transported by air. But the extent to which organism

ist in the Earths atmosphere is only now becoming clear.

here is good evidence that bacteria (or bacterial spores) can help nucleate water condensation, seeding clouds and encouraging precipitation

as been speculated that this could even form part ofabacterial life-cycle, lofting organisms into the air, transporting them, and bringing them

ack to earth for fresh pastures.

heres also growing evidence for just how widespread airborne microbial ecosystems might be. Scientists in Austriahave foundbacteria in c

oplets at 10,000 feet as well as clear signs that these microbes are not just passengers theyre actually growing and reproducing in-situ in

uper-cooled water environment. This suggests that clouds are quite literally another habitat for life on Earth, and with an average covering o

the planetary surface represent a pretty major ecosystem.

ow anew studyfinds that dust plumes in the troposphere are carrying over 2,000 distinct species from Asia to North America right across

acific Ocean. Some of these organisms are fungal, but at least 50% are bacterial, and make the trans-planetary journey in only 7-10 days whe

orms loft them as high at ten miles into the atmosphere.

his might not seem so surprising, we know that single-celled organisms occupy almost every niche on the planet. However, it does seem that

sian microbes represent a distinct population thats usually only a trace on the continental USA but when the wind blows their numbers on

estern hemisphere definitely increase significantly. This means that there is real mixing of species going on, a microbial pollution that may h

nsequences for all manner of things, including local ecosystem function and even disease.

s fascinating stuff. This kind of transportation must have been going on across all three to four billion years of life on Earth, leading us to wo

actly what role it may have played in maintaining the global biosphere. Its also food for thought in considering the poten tial ecosystems of

place where planet-wide dust stormsregularly loft particles high into the atmosphere.

Which World Will We Face in 2030?

ast week, I and some 200 other attendees of theGlobal Trends 2030: U.S. Leadership in a Post-Western World conference got a thought-

ovoking look at the current megatrends leading to four possible futures for the world some 10 to 15 years from now. Cutting across all of t

the disruptive influence of emerging technologieswhich was the theme of the panel I moderated at the event, held at Newseum in Washin

C., on December 10 and 11.

he main subjects of the conference were the U.S. National Intelligence Councils Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds report, which wa

leased with the Atlantic Councils Strategic Foresight Initiatives companion opus, Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for a Post-Western Worl

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CEQQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nyserda.ny.gov%2F~%2Fmedia%2FFiles%2FPublications%2FResearch%2FElectic%2520Power%2520Delivery%2F10-35-microgrids.ashx%3Fsc_database%3Dweb&ei=KWfPUJD3Doe68wTk24DwDQ&usg=AFQjCNEMLDVWvr-RMvdfopz1FSAbn6bK3w&bvm=bv.1355325884,d.eWUhttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CEQQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nyserda.ny.gov%2F~%2Fmedia%2FFiles%2FPublications%2FResearch%2FElectic%2520Power%2520Delivery%2F10-35-microgrids.ashx%3Fsc_database%3Dweb&ei=KWfPUJD3Doe68wTk24DwDQ&usg=AFQjCNEMLDVWvr-RMvdfopz1FSAbn6bK3w&bvm=bv.1355325884,d.eWUhttp://www.intelligentutility.com/article/12/01/grid-tied-microgrids-utilitys-best-friendhttp://www.intelligentutility.com/article/12/01/grid-tied-microgrids-utilitys-best-friendhttp://www.intelligentutility.com/article/12/01/grid-tied-microgrids-utilitys-best-friendhttp://www.nreca.coop/press/CoopStories/Pages/CooperativesGainingExpertiseinManagingMicrogrids.aspxhttp://www.nreca.coop/press/CoopStories/Pages/CooperativesGainingExpertiseinManagingMicrogrids.aspxhttp://www.nreca.coop/press/CoopStories/Pages/CooperativesGainingExpertiseinManagingMicrogrids.aspxhttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/life-unbounded/2012/12/18/theres-something-in-the-air-trans-planetary-microbes/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/life-unbounded/2012/12/18/theres-something-in-the-air-trans-planetary-microbes/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/life-unbounded/2012/12/18/theres-something-in-the-air-trans-planetary-microbes/http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080228174801.htmhttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080228174801.htmhttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080228174801.htmhttp://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2001/2000GL011684.shtmlhttp://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2001/2000GL011684.shtmlhttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/121217152711.htmhttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/121217152711.htmhttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/121217152711.htmhttp://news.discovery.com/space/mars-dust-storm-brewing-rovers-121124.htmlhttp://news.discovery.com/space/mars-dust-storm-brewing-rovers-121124.htmlhttp://news.discovery.com/space/mars-dust-storm-brewing-rovers-121124.htmlhttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/12/18/which-world-will-we-face-in-2030/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/12/18/which-world-will-we-face-in-2030/http://www.acus.org/event/global-trends-2030-us-leadership-post-western-worldhttp://www.acus.org/event/global-trends-2030-us-leadership-post-western-worldhttp://www.acus.org/event/global-trends-2030-us-leadership-post-western-w