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The Fate of the Amazon Forest in the 21st Century
Carlos A. Nobre
Center for Earth System Science National Institute for Space Research – INPE,
Brazil
Photo: Alexander Torrenegra
Microsoft – FAPESP Environmental Science Workshop
São Paulo, 11 November 2010
Agradecimentos …
Gilvan Sampaio
Manoel Cardoso
Marina Hirota
Luiz Salazar
Laura Borma
Julia Reid
Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPE
Temperate Grasslands &
Woodlands
Temperate Broadleaf Forest
Tropical Dry Forest
Tropical Grasslands
Tropical Coniferous Forest
Mediterranean Forests
Tropical Moist Forest
0 50 100
Percent of habitat (biome) remaining
Habitat Loss to 1990
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Global Changes and the Earth System:The Amazon as a Paradigm
The natural system in the Amazon at a glance...
• Largest contiguous tropical forest
(over 6 million km2)
• 10%-15% of the Earth’s biodiversity
• 18% of fleshwater input into the global
oceans
• Large heat source of the atmosphere
(1 C to 2 C/day tropospheric heating
rate during rainy season)
• Large carbon storage in the biomass
(≈ 90 to 120 Gton C)
The Amazon as a regional entity of the Earth System!
Projected deforestation scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon
Land use and cover change
Animated map from Arnaldo Carneiro
Annual Deforestation rate for the Brazilian Amazon
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Km
2/y
ear
Source: INPE (www.inpe.br)
CATTLE RANCHING INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE-SOYSELECTIVE LOGGING
US$ 20 a 70 per ha/year US$ 100 to 400 per ha/25- to 30-year cycle
US$ 100 to 200 per ha/year
US$ 2.000 to 2.400 per ha (at US$ 20 per ton C)
REDD
CATTLESELECTIVE LOGGING
SOYA
Net profitability of current economic activities in the Amazon and versus the potential for REDD
Evapotranspiration
seasonality in the
Amazon tropical
forest and savannaSource: Rocha (2004)
Cerrado s.s. SP
Floresta trop RO
Floresta trop Manaus
Floresta trop Santarém
Forest
Savanna
Forest
Savanna
La
ten
t H
eat
flu
x (
W m
-2)
Net
Ra
dia
tio
n (
W m
-2)
mm
day
-1
Biomes of tropical South America and precipitation seasonality
Sombroek 2001, Ambio
Number of consecutive months with less than 50 mm rainfall
Annual Rainfall
Biomes of South America
The importance of rainfall seasonality (short dry season) for maintaining tropical forests all over Amazonia
Tropical Forest-Savanna
Boundary
Tropical Forest
Shrubland
Savanna
The Hypothesis of Amazonian ‘Savannization’
• Nobre et al. (1991) proposed that a post-deforestation climatein Southern Amazonia would be warmer, drier and with longerdry season, typical of the climate envelope of the tropical savanna (Cerrado) domain of Central South America.
• ‘Savannization’ in this context is a statement on regional climate change and not intended to describe complexecological processes of vegetation substitution.
Nobre et al. 1991, J. Climate
Modeling Deforestation and Biogeography in Amazonia
Current Biomes Post-deforestation
“1” Tropical Forest“6” Savanna
‘Tipping points’ analysis framework
Lenton et al. 2008
"the levels at which the momentum for change becomes unstoppable” Walsh (2007)
Biomes for South America.
After Olsen et al. (2001).
Is the current Climate-
Vegetation
equilibrium in
Amazonia the only
stable equilibrium
possible?
Forest
PHOTOSYNTHESIS
WATER
BALANCE
HETEROTROPHIC
RESPIRATION
AUTOTROPHIC
RESPIRATION
T and P
Vm
LAI
E
w
rc
NPP
Diagrama esquemático simplificado do sub-modelo de ciclo de carbono proposto, apresentando os processos que influenciam em
cada compartimento. T: temperatura; P: precipitação; w: água no solo; Vm: taxa de carboxilação da Rubisco; LAI: índice de área
foliar; NPP: produtividade primária líquida; rc: resistência do dossel; E: evapotranspiração. Fonte: Lapola, 2007.
CLIMATE
BIOMES
CLIMATE VARIABLES BIOME TYPES
Oyama and Nobre, GRL, 2003; Oyaman and Nobre, J. Climate, 2004; Cardoso et al. (2007); Lapola et al., Proc.
Braz. Acad. Sci., 2008; Cardoso et al., Biologica, 2009 ; Lapola et al., GBC, 2009 (accepted)
Impact of using the new fire parameterization in the biomeestimates of the CPTEC Potential Vegetation Model:
Accounting for fires corrected important differences between previousmodel estimates and reference data for the position of natural savannasin the tropics. In specific, large areas in India and SE Asia that wereinitially estimated as savannas are now corrected to dry forests.
Major vegetation types:(1) broadleaf-evergreen trees (tropical forest), (2) broadleaf-deciduous trees (temperate forest)(3) broadleaf and needleleaf trees (mixed forest)(4) needleleaf-evergreen trees (boreal forest)(5) needleleaf-deciduous trees (larch), (6) broadleaf trees with groundcover (savanna)(7) groundcover only (prairie, steppes)(8) broadleaf shrubs with perennial groundcover (caatinga)(9) broadleaf shrubs with bare soil (semi-desert)(10) dwarf trees and shrubs with groundcover (tundra)(11) bare soil (desert)(13) ice.
CPTEC-INPE Potential Vegetation Model - PVM
Biome changing – bi-stability in the Amazon
Oyama and Nobre, 2003 GRL
Two Biome-Climate Equilibrium States found for South America
Soil Moisture
Rainfallanomalies
-- current state (a)-- second state (b)
Current potential vegetation
Second StateResults of CPTEC-DBM Initial Conditions : desert
Savanna
Forest
What does it take to tip the equilibrium between the two stable states?
Ecosystems of Amazonia - environmental drivers of change
LUCC
FireClimateChange
ClimateExtremes
Complex Earth System Models are needed to study all these interacting and simultaneous drivers
Total deforested area (clear-cutting) is 730,000 km2
in Brazilian Amazonia (18%) (INPE, 2008)S
ou
rce:
G
reen
pea
ce/D
an
iel
Bel
tra
Anthropogenic and Natural Drivers of Environmental
Change in Amazonia
DROUGHTS FOREST FIRES
DEFORESTATIONGLOBAL WARMING
Warming of 0.8°C in Amazonia (Victoria et al., 2004. J Climate); IPCC AR4: 3°C to > 5°C in 2100!
Forest fire frequency ↑ (Nepstad et al., 2006)Droughts (e.g., 2005) can become frequent (Cox et al., 2008 Nature)
Tropical forest
Savanna state
triggered by climate
change or
deforestation
Stability of savanna
enhanced by increased
droughts and fires
Tipping points: temperature, rainfall and deforestation area
Tipping points of the Earth System – Application to Amazonia
Cardoso and Borma, 2010
Land Cover Change: Deforestation, Forest
Degradation
Secondary Drivers
Primary Drivers
Environmental Drivers of Change
Climate Change: CO2,temperature,
rainfall
Droughts Forest Fires
Changes in Species Composition
Tree Mortality x Tree Growth
Ecosystem Responses
Savannization/forest dieback
“Secondarization”
Short term(interannual to interdecadal)
Long term(interdecadal to
centennial)
What are the likely biome changes in Tropical South America due to a suite of environmental drivers of change?
LAND USE AND COVER CHANGE
Land Cover Change:Deforestation, Forest
Degradation
Secondary Drivers
Primary Drivers
Environmental Drivers of Change
Climate Change/ CO2
Droughts Forest Fires
Changes in Species Composition
Tree Mortality x Tree Growth
Ecosystem Responses
Savannization/forest dieback
“Secondarization”
What are the likely biome changes in Tropical South America due to LUCC scenarios ?
Short term(interannual to interdecadal)
Long term(interdecadal to
centennial)
Sampaio et al. 2007
Post-Deforestation Equilibrium Potential Biomes
Deforestation only
Land cover
scenario
Post-deforestation
equilibrium vegetation
GLOBAL WARMING
Land Cover Change:Deforastatio, Foresst
Degradation
Secondary Drivers
Primary Drivers
Environmental Drivers of Change
Climate Change: temperature,
rainfall
Droughts Forest Fires
Ecosystem Responses
Savannization/forest dieback
“Secondarization”
What are the likely biome changes in Tropical South America due to Global Warming scenarios of climate change?
Short term(interannual to interdecadal)
Long term(interdecadal to
centennial)
Changes in Species Composition
Tree Mortality x Tree Growth
Global climatic scenarios for South America
Anomalies projections of temperature (°C/day) for South America for the period of 2090-2099 (A2 Scenario) in relation to the base period of 1961-1990 for 15 different globalclimatic models available through IPCC.
Fundamental Question and Main Conclusions …
Seasonality of rainfall as a critical parameter for tropical forests; the role of fire to set forest-savanna boundary
Bi-stability of vegetation-climate equilibrium states in Amazonia (state 1: forest dominated; state 2: forest-savanna)
Drivers of change: global warming, deforestation, droughts, fire
Tipping points not to be crossed for maintenance of the Amazon forest:
∆TGlobal Warming < 3 °C (< 3.5 °C in Amazonia)
Total Deforested Area < 40%
Question: Are there ‘tipping’ points in the Amazon
that should not be crossed ever?
Global climatic scenarios for South America
Anomalies projections of precipitation (mm/day) for South America for the period of2090-2099 (A2 Scenario) in relation to the base period of 1961-1990 for 15 differentglobal climatic models available through IPCC.
Projected distribution of natural biomes in South America for 2090-2099 from 15 AOGCMsfor the A2 emissions scenarios, calculated by using CPTEC-INPE PVM.
Consequences on the Biome distribution in tropical South America
Salazar et al., 2007 GRL
Climate change
Grid points where more than 75%of the models used (> 11 models)coincide as projecting the futurecondition of the tropical forest andthe savanna in relation with thecurrent potential vegetation. Thefigure also shows the grid pointswhere a consensus amongst themodels of the future condition ofthe tropical forest was not found.for the periods (a) 2020-2029, (b)2050-2059 and (c) 2090-2099 forB1 GHG emissions scenario and(d), (e) and (f) similarly for A2 GHGemissions scenario.
2050-2059 2090-20992020-2029
Salazar et al., 2007 GRL
Consequences on the Biome distribution in Tropical South America
SRES B1 SRES B1 SRES B1
SRES A2 SRES A2 SRES A2
Climate change
Savanna replaces Forest
Land Cover Change: Deforestation, Forest
Degradation
Secondary Drivers
Primary Drivers
Environmental Drivers of Change
Climate Change: CO2
Droughts Forest Fires
Changes in Species Composition
Tree Mortality x Tree Growth
Ecosystem Responses
Savannization/forest dieback
“Secondarization”
What are the likely biome changes in Tropical South America due to Global Warming scenarios of climate change?
Short term(interannual to interdecadal)
Long term(interdecadal to
centennial)
Lapola et al. GBC, 2009
Climate change
Taking into account the potential positive effect of CO2 on forest resilience
How does the forest respond to increased atmospheric CO2?
Only Climate
CO2
760 ppm
½ CO2
“fertilization”
effect
Land Cover Change:Deforastatio, Foresst
Degradation
Secondary Drivers
Primary Drivers
Environmental Drivers of Change
Climate Change: temperature,
rainfall and CO2
Droughts Forest Fires
Ecosystem Responses
Savannization/forest dieback
“Secondarization”
What are the likely biome changes in Tropical South America due to Global Warming scenarios of climate change?
Short term(interannual to interdecadal)
Long term(interdecadal to
centennial)
Changes in Species Composition
Tree Mortality x Tree Growth
Figure . Natural vegetation reference map [Salazar, 2009] and actual potential vegetation simulated by CPTEC-PVM2.0Reg model under the 1961–1990 mean climate. The division of the Amazon domain is indicated by the continuous box in the natural vegetation map. Region 1: Southeast (5.25°S–13.75°S; 50.75°W–63.75°W); Region 2: Northeast (4.75°N–5.25°S; 50.75°W–63.75°W); Region 3: Northwest (4.75°N–5.25°S; 63.75°W; 75.25°W); Region 4: Southwest (5.25°S–13.75°S; 63.75°W–75.25°W).
Salazar and Nobre, 2010 GRL
Potential Vegetation Simulated by the PVM2.0Reg (50 km)
Vegetation types calculatedby the vegetation model
Figure. Potential dominantbiome simulated by CPTEC-PVM2.0Reg for differenttemperature anomalies,precipitation changes, andfertilization effects (0%, 25%and 100%) for SRES A2climate scenario for theperiod 2070–2099, and forthe regions of Amazonia(indicated in Figure 1): (a–c)southeast, (d–f) northeast,(g–i) northwest and (j–l)southwest Amazonia.The climate anomaliesprojected by regional (ETACCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P)and selected global (GISS]ER,ECHAM5, HadCM3 and M:average of fifteen globalmodels from IPCC) modelsplotted for each region.
Salazar and Nobre, 2010 GRL
Potential Dominant Biome in Response to ∆T, ∆P and CO2 “fertilization” effect
Salazar and Nobre, 2010 GRL
Potential Dominant Biome in Response to ∆T, ∆P and CO2 “fertilization” effect
Global Models1: GISS-ER2: ECHAM53: HadCM3
Regional Models4: ETA CCS5: RegCM36: HadRM3P
M: IPCC mean A2 scenario
TROPICAL FOREST
SAVANNA
SEASONAL FOREST
12
3456
SHRUBLAND
M
Most models are at the transition TROPICAL/ SEASONAL FOREST to SAVANNAwhile only two models are at the savanna
Total deforested area (clear-cutting) is 730,000 km2 in
Brazilian Amazonia (18%) (INPE, 2008)
Anthropogenic and Natural Drivers of
Environmental Change in Amazonia
FOREST FIRES
DEFORESTATIONGLOBAL WARMING
Warming of 0.8 °C in Amazonia (Victoria et al., 2004. J Climate); IPCC AR4: 3 C to > 5 C in 2100!
Forest fire frequency ↑ (Nepstad et al., 2006)
What are the synergistic effect of global warming + deforestation +
fires?
DEFORESTATION + CLIMATE CHANGE + FIRE
Grid point for 75% consensusprojecting the future condition oftropical South American biomes inrelation to current potentialvegetation, for the time slices (A) 2025+ 20% deforestation + fire and (B) 2075+ 50% deforestation + fire for the A2GHG emissions scenario, and (C), (D)similarly for the B1 GHG emissionsscenario. In these maps, “noconsensus” means that fewer than 12models agree with the transition.“Loss” means consensus forsubstitution of that biome class.
410
535
A2 B1
410
730
Atmospheric CO2
Concentrations (ppm)
2025
2075
Year
A2
B1
Deforestation + Climate Changefor Emission Scenario A2
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
20
25
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
B1 B1 A2A2
DEFORESTATION
78%
22%
50%
…and if deforestation is 50% by 2075?
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow?
…and if deforestation is 100%by 2100?
2025 2075 2100
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2)
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075 2100
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
CC
–B
1
66%
59%
74%
64%
57%
78%
50%
22%
…and by 2075? What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2025? …and by 2100?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2) + DEFORESTATION
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075 2100
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
CC
–B
1
66%59%
74%
64%
57%
78%
50%
22%
60%21%
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2025? …and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE
SCENARIO A2 by 2075?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (A2)+ DEFORESTATION + FIRE
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
CC
–A
2D
EF 5
0%
+ C
C A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075 2100
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
CC
–B
1
66%
75%
59%
74%
64%
57%
78%
50%
22%
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
34%
61%60% 21%
33%
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
57% 56%
20%
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 and FIRE by 2025?
…and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 and FIRE by 2075?
Preliminary attempt at determining quantitative ‘tipping’ points for collapse of the Amazon forests
Tentatively, thresholds for the maintenance of therainforests are:
• ∆TGlobal Warming < 3 C (3.5 C in the Amazon)
• Total Deforested Area < 40%
• Forest fires decrease even further the resilence oftropical forests in the Amazon
• The role of CO2 “fertilization” is unkown and couldincrease resilience
„Savannization‟ of Amazonia and „Aridization‟ of NE Brazil
Risks to Tropical Biomes
Forest
SavannaCaatinga
Savannas
In Amazonia
Semi-Desert
In NE Brazil
Fontes: Oyama and Nobre, 2003 e Salazar et al., , 2007; Sampaio et al., 2007; Nobre et al., 2009;
Nobre and Borma, 2009; Salazar and Nobre, 2010
‘Tipping’ Points for Amazonia∆TGlobal Warming > 3.5 C; Total deforested area > 40%
Can we avoid that this … .
Fire...
….turns into this?
“The Economist”
Implications of the thresholds for Amazonian Countries andDomestic and International policies
∆Tglobal warming < 3°C (3.5°C in the Amazon)
Total Deforested Area < 40%
Implications of the thresholds for Amazonian Countries andInternational policies
Total Deforested Area < 40%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
77/8
8*
88/8
9
89/9
0
90/9
1
91/9
2
92/9
4
94/9
5
95/9
6
96/9
7
97/9
8
98/9
9
99/0
0
00/0
1
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
Desflore
sta
tion (
km
² per
year)
Deforestation in Amazonia 1977-2009 in km² per year
* annual average per decade Data from INPE, 2009
7.500 km²
in 2009
What public policies are needed to sustain this reduction?
As of 2009, 17% of
Amazonia was
deforested.
High Deforestation Rates up to 2004!
500 km
Amazonia in the 2050 BAU Scenario:Deforested 2,698,735 km2
Forest 3,320,409 km2
Non-forest 1,497,685 km2
Soares-Filho, et al. 2006, Nature33 Pg C
Land use change - scenarios
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
77/8
8*
88/8
9
89/9
0
90/9
1
91/9
2
92/9
4
94/9
5
95/9
6
96/9
7
97/9
8
98/9
9
99/0
0
00/0
1
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
Desflore
sta
tion (
km
² per
year)
Deforestation in Amazonia 1977-2009 in km² per year
* annual average per decade Data from INPE, 2009
7.000 km²
in 2009
What public policies are needed to sustain this reduction?
As of 2009, 17% of
Amazonia was
deforested.
60% decline in deforestation rates
from 2004 to 2009!
Amazonia in the 2050 Governance Scenario:Deforested 1,655,734 km2
Forest 4,363,410 km2
Non-forest 1,497,685 km2
500 km17 Pg C Soares-Filho, et al. 2006, Nature
Land use change - scenarios
Implications of the thresholds for Amazonian Countries andInternational policies
Total Deforested Area < 40%
Policies to rapidly reduce deforestation (e.g.,maintaining 80% of forests in rural landholdings as it iswith the current land use policy); depends by andlarge on Brazilian policies; apparent success in the last5 years
Implications of the thresholds for Amazonian Countries andInternational policies
∆Tglobal warming < 3°C (3.5°C in the Amazon)
Recent emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns (
GtC
y-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10Actual emissions: CDIAC
Actual emissions: EIA
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns (
GtC
y-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Actual emissions: CDIAC
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
Observed
relative increase
2000-2008: 3.5%
IPCC scenarios:
1.6-2.7%
2006
2005
2007
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project 2009
(Avgs.)
2008
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels
2009
Concentrations in 2008
CO2 385 ppm
CO2-equivalent 463 ppm
CO2-equivalent with aerosols 396 ppm
A concentration of 450 ppm CO2-eq (plus aerosols) gives a
50/50 chance to a temperature increase of less than 2°C
Implications of the thresholds for Amazonian Countries andInternational policies
∆Tglobal warming < 3°C (3.5°C in the Amazon)
Limiting global warming < 2°C by early and sharpreductions of global emissions (reducing this riskdepends little on Amazonian countries policies).
Implications of the thresholds for Amazonian Countries andInternational policies
∆Tglobal warming < 3°C (3.5°C in the Amazon)
Limiting global warming < 2°C by early and sharpreductions of global emissions (reducing this riskdepends little on Amazonian countries policies).
Total Deforested Area < 40%
Policies to rapidly reduce deforestation (e.g.,maintaining 80% of forests in rural landholdings as it iswith the current land use policy); depends by andlarge on Brazilian policies; apparent success in the last5 years
Foto
: co
rtes
ia d
e A
nto
nio
No
bre
Obrigado!Thank you!
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-2025-Cchange
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
20
25
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075 2100
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
B1 B1 A2A2
CC
–B
1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
20
25
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075 2100
Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
B1 B1 A2A2
DEFORESTATION
78%
22%
50%
…and if deforestation is 50% by 2075?
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow?
…and if deforestation is 100%by 2100?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario B1)
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
20
25
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075 2100
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
A2A2
CC
–B
1
66%
75%
59%
78%
50%
22%
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2025?
…and by 2075?
…and by 2100?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2)
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075 2100
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
CC
–B
1
66%75%
59%
74%
64%
57%
78%
50%
22%
…and by 2075? What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2025? …and by 2100?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario B1) + DEFORESTATION
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075 2100
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
CC
–B
1
66%
75%
59%
74%
64%
57%
78%
50%
22%
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
34%61%
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2025?
… and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2075? … and if 100% is deforested and under the
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2100?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2) + DEFORESTATION
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075 2100
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
CC
–B
1
66%
75%
59%
74%
64%
57%
78%
50%
22%
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
34%61%
60%21%
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2025? …and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE
SCENARIO A2 by 2075?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (B1) + DEFORASTATION + FIRE
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075 2100
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
CC
–B
1
66%
75%
59%
74%
64%57%
78%
50%
22%
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
34%
61%
60%21%
33%
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
57%
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2025?…and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2075?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (A2)+ DEFORESTATION + FIRE
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
CC
–A
2D
EF 5
0%
+ C
C A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075 2100
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
CC
–B
1
66%
75%
59%
74%
64%
57%
78%
50%
22%
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
34%
61%60% 21%
33%
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
57% 56%
20%
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 and FIRE by 2025?
…and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 and FIRE by 2075?
CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire
DEF
20
%C
C –
B1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
20
25
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%
CC
–B
1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075 2100
50%
80%
20%
Nobre et al., 2010
in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
Global Sustainability Science
IGBP P
To provide essential scientific leadership and knowledge of the Earth system to help guide society onto a sustainable
pathway during rapid global change
IGBP Strategic Vision
Integrated Earth-System Approach
IGBP’s second synthesis
Bringing together biogeochemists and climate modellers, with biodiversity, social scientists, economists, policy makers, .....
Cryosphere
impacts
Second Synthesis
Megacities & coasts
Needs of least
developed nations
Second Synthesis
Geoengineering
impacts
Nitrogen and
climate
Second Synthesis
Climate & land use
AdaptationAir quality
& climate
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-2025-Cchange
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
20
25
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075 2100
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
B1 B1 A2A2
CC
–B
1
Deforestation + Climate Changefor Emission Scenario B1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
20
25
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
B1 B1 A2A2
DEFORESTATION
78%
22%
50%
…and if deforestation is 50% by 2075?
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow?
…and if deforestation is 100%by 2100?
2025 2075 2100
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario B1)
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
20
25
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
A2A2
CC
–B
1
66%
75%
59%
78%
50%
22%
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon under CLIMATE CHANGE by 2025?
…and by 2075?
…and by 2100?
2025 2075 2100
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE + DEFORESTATION (Scenario B1)
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
CC
–B
1
66%75%
59%
34%78%
50%
22%
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon
by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is
abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A1 by 2025?
…and if 50% is deforested and
under the CLIMATE CHANGE
SCENARIO B1 by 2075?
61%
2025 2075 2100
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (B1) + DEFORASTATION + FIRE
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075 2100
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
CC
–B
1
66%
75%
59%
78%
50%
22%
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
34%
61%
33%
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
57%
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2025?…and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2075?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-2025-Cchange
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
20
25
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
2025 2075
Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
B1 B1 A2A2
CC
–B
1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
20
25
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
2025 2075
Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
B1 B1 A2A2
DEFORESTATION
78%
50%
…and if deforestation is 50% by 2075?
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario B1)
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
20
25
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075
Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
A2A2
CC
–B
1
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2025?
…and by 2075?
66%
75%78%
50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2)
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075
Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
CC
–B
1
…and by 2075?
66%
75% 74%
64%
78%
50%
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2025?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario B1) + DEFORESTATION
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075
Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
CC
–B
1
66%
75% 74%64%78%
50%
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2025?
… and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2075?
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
34%
61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2) + DEFORASTATION
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
2025 2075
Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
CC
–B
1
66%
75% 74%64%
78%
50%
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2025?
…and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2075?
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
34%
61%
60%
21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (B1) + DEFORASTATION + FIRE
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
2025 2075
Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
CC
–B
1
66%
75% 74%64%78%
50%
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2025?
…and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2075?
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
34%
61%
60% 20%
33%
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
57%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Re
mai
nin
g Fo
rest
Are
a (%
)
20% deforest
B1-20%-2025 -Fire
B1-20%-2025 +Fire
A2-2025-Cchange
A2-20%-2025 -Fire
A2-20%-2025 +Fire
50% deforest
B1-2075-Cchange
B1-50%-2075 -Fire
B1-50%-2075 +Fire
A2-2075-Cchange
A2-50%-2075 -Fire
A2-50%-2075 +Fire
100% deforest
B1-2100-Cchange
A2-2100-Cchange
CLIMATE CHANGE (A2)+ DEFORASTATION + FIRE
DEF
20
%
CC
–B
1D
EF 2
0%
+ C
C B
1
DEF
20
% +
CC
B1
+ F
CC
–A
2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
DEF
20
% +
CC
A2
+ F
DEF
50
%C
C –
B1
CC
–A
2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
DEF
50
% +
CC
A2
+ F
CC
–B
1
CC
–A
2
DEF
10
0%
2025 2075
Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation
Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change
CC
–B
1
66%
75% 74%64%78%
50%
What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 andFIRE by 2025?
…and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 and FIRE by 2075?
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
34%
61% 60%
21%
33%
DEF
50
% +
CC
B1
+ F
57% 56%20%
Canadell et al. 2009, Biogeosciences
Emissions from Land Use Change (2000-2005)
(Area)
van der Werf et al. 2006, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, updated
Fire Emissions from Deforestation Zones
Global Fire Emissions Dataset (vs2)
Atmospheric CO2 and the cumulative carbon budget starting from 1750
J. L. Sarmiento et al., 2010
Cumulative carbon fluxes from 1750 onwards of the main sources and sinks of the global carbon cycle including
fossil fuel emissions, the atmospheric CO2 increase, ocean uptake, and net land flux. The atmospheric increase
is calculated from a spline fit to the ice core and Mauna Loa CO2 data from (a), the ocean uptake is based on
the ocean inversion of Mikaloff Fletcher et al. (2006) scaled to the respective year assuming a linear relationship
between ocean uptake and atmospheric CO2 and the net land flux is computed by the difference Net land flux =
fossil fuel emissions – atmospheric CO2 increase – ocean uptake. The symbols are estimates from Sabine et
al. (2004) for the period from 1800 to 1994 summed to the 1790 to 1810 average of our estimates.
Notice:
Cumulative carbon
fluxes for Net Land
Flux is decreasing
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009
CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change
Fossil fuel
Land use change
10
8
6
4
2
1960 20101970 1990 20001980
CO
2em
issi
ons
(PgC
y-1
)
Trends and regional distribution of land and ocean carbon sinks
Global flux estimates for 1960 to 1988 and 1989 to 2003/7 obtained by averaging the
fluxes shown in Fig. 1 and Table 2. The shaded region on the right summarizes the
post-1988/1989 bottom-up land source and sink components discussed in the text.
J. L. Sarmiento et al., 2010
Tropical Forests: sources and sinks
of carbon