The Experience of An ABS GraduateChris McKendry

Australian Bureau of Statistics

ABS-SSAI Careers Night 12 April 2012

My BackgroundBachelor of Science at UNSW

Honours in StatisticsThesis on Time Series

ABS CadetshipWork Experience in Time Series between semestersStudy support for Honours

Graduate Program (Jan 2011)13 months in Time SeriesRecently moved to Survey Methodology

Perks I Experienced at the ABSConsistent extra-curricular activities

Trivia, tennis, soccer, basketball, touch footy, board games

Access to trainingSAS, Project Management, Economic Statistics,

Statistical Reporting, Time Series, Survey Methods

Networking and TravelInterstate travel is completely normalRepresent your section / division / organisation in

various forums / events

Perks of the ABSFLEXITIME (!!!!)

Like to start late and finish late???Like to start early and finish early???Wish to coordinate work hours with other

studies???Have kids to pick up from school???Like to combine public holidays with flexi-

hours???

Colleagues with similar talents and interestsProgramming, Maths, Statistics, Econometrics

Graduate Year in MDMDRotations Scheme

Rotate at 10 months and 18 monthsDevelop >= 3 disciplines in the first 2.5 years

Sections of workData Confidentialisation, Data-Linking, Operation

Research, Sampling, CPI estimation, Time Series, Econometrics

Corporate ResponsibilitiesCoordinating social activitiesParticipate in MDMD seminars

Friend Project Relevance

Joseph Data confidentialisation Researcher access to confidentialised unit records

Aparjit Monthly Population Survey

National estimates of labour statistics

Daniel Optimality of the CPI Integrity of national statistics

Carrie Data linking Joint use of admin and census data

Me Time Series Reconciliation Detailed data for socio-economic analysis

Projects assigned to 2011 Grads

My Grad Project

Is a pretty good example of an output useful to the business / policy / research community

Not meant to be Earth shatteringBut demonstrates what kind of technical skills

are useful within MDMD

My Grad ProjectBackground in Seasonal Adjustment

Original Data

• Seasonality

• Moving Public

Holidays

• Moving School

Holidays

Monthly Hours Worked In Australia (Original)

My Grad ProjectBackground in Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonally Adjusted

• Less volatile

• Comparable

Months

• Complimentary to Unemployment Rate

Monthly Hours Worked In Australia (Seasonally Adjusted)

My Grad ProjectBackground to ABS Hours Worked Series

Sex State Part/Full time Age

Relevance• Key economic

indicator• Effects of Policy• Natural Disasters• Economic Trends /

Shocks

Users• RBA• Treasury• ABS• DEEWR

Cross-Sectional Splits

SexMale Female Person

Full TimePart TimeWorking

JobStatus

My Grad ProjectReconciliation

Publish SA HW in Sex by Status splits BUT

• Seasonally adjustment not linear

• Sum of SA Components SA Adjusted

Aggregate

SexMale Female Person

Full TimePart TimeWorking

JobStatus

Solution

• Time series reconciliation

• 6 constraints to meet for each time (easy and

standard)

My Grad ProjectReconciliation

𝑠111……… 𝑠1𝑃 1

𝑠1𝑁 1………𝑠1𝑁𝑃

⋮⋮⋮

⋮⋮⋮Sex

F/P- time

State

𝑠11𝑄………𝑠1𝑃𝑄

𝑠1𝑁𝑄……… 𝑠1𝑁𝑄

⋮⋮⋮

⋮⋮⋮

My Grad ProjectReconciliation: 3D Aggregation Structure

3D Aggregation Structure

• Sex by Status by State

• 63 constraints PER OBSERVATION

Quality Concerns

• Meet constraints

• Maintain Level

• Maintain Temporal Movements

My Grad ProjectYou wanted maths at work right?