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05.10.2017 Slide 1 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Dr. Holger Weimar
Thünen Institute of International Forestry and Forest Economics, Hamburg
Hamburg, 05.10.2017
The (European) market for (sawn) softwood Aspects of supply, production, trade, competitiveness and demand/use
International Softwood Conference, ISC 2017 Hamburg
05.10.2017 Slide 2 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
The (European) market for (sawn) softwood Aspects of supply, production, trade, competitiveness and demand/use
Demand / Use
Production
Wood supply
Trade / Competitiveness
05.10.2017 Slide 3 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Supply: Global development Production
Global roundwood production 1961 – 2016
Quelle: FAO (2017)
2016 Total: 3.73 bn m³ Developed Countries: 3.14 bn m³ Least Deve-loped Countr.: 0.59 bn m³
49%
15%
35%
1%
05.10.2017 Slide 4 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Supply: Global development Forest Area
Development of global forest area 2005-2010 (Average rate of deforestation per year)
− Net losses of forest area of ~7 million hectares per year
− Degradation of additional areas, especially in the tropics and subtropics: (e.g.)
− Loss of biodiversity − Carbon emissions − Depletion of soil
− Programs for prevention (e.g.): − REDD, REDD plus − Lacey Act (USA) − FLEGT (EU) − EUTR (EU) − Certification (total Σ11%,
19% of managed area, Tropics: 6%, DE: 70%)
05.10.2017 Slide 5 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Supply: Global development Industrial roundwood
Source: FAO (2017)
12%
21%
4%
28%
3%
32%
Supply by continents 1992 – 2016
Σ 2016: 1,87 billion m³
05.10.2017 Slide 6 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Supply: Global development Coniferous industrial roundwood
Σ 2016: 1,05 billion m³ (Conif: 56%)
7% / 19% 8% / 38%
4% / 70%
38% / 78%
1% / 16%
41% / 74%
Supply by continents 1992 – 2016 share 2016 / share of conif. on continents total
Source: FAO (2017)
mill
ion
05.10.2017 Slide 7 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Supply: Actual situation Global trade: Coniferous industrial roundwood
Global trade by regions 2014
05.10.2017 Slide 8 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
0102030
ChinaAustriaGermanySwedenRep. of KoreaJapanCanadaCzechiaBelgiumIndiaRomaniaFinlandPolandItalyLatvia
Milli 0 10 20 30
New ZealandRussian Fed.
USACanadaCzechiaAustraliaNorway
GermanySloveniaUkrainePolandFrance
BelarusLatvia
Slovakia
Milli
Supply: Actual situation Global trade: Coniferous industrial roundwood
Main exporters and importers 2016 (in million m³, Top 15)
Exporter ∑ 82 mill m³
Importer ∑ 83 mill m³
- China as main importer of coniferous roundwood - Intense trade of European countries
Source: FAO (2017)
05.10.2017 Slide 9 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Supply: Actual situation Global trade: Coniferous industrial roundwood
Global trade by regions 2014
05.10.2017 Slide 10 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
0,76
61,0320,90
4,65
11,76
0,90
Production: Global development Semi-finished products: Global production (≈ consumption)
− New peaks for all products except pulp − Wood pulp relatively constant − Paper & paperboard slightly increasing − Wood-based panels very dynamic − Sawnwood strongly affected by crisis, but recovering
Sawnwood
Paper & Paperboard
Wood-based panels
Wood Pulp
Production (%) by continents 2016
2,20
27,23
33,62
7,40
27,51
2,04
1,37
17,57
26,42
15,88
37,37
1,390,88
47,05
25,63
5,43
20,06
0,95
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
mill
ion
Sawnwood (m³)Wood-Based Panels (m³)Wood Pulp (tons)Paper & Paperboard (tons)
Source: FAO (2017)
05.10.2017 Slide 11 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Production: Global development Sawnwood: Global production
− Sawnwood strongly affected by crisis, but recovering − Softwood stronger affected by crisis − Hardwood peaked in 2015 − Softwood seems still to recover/increase
Sawn softwood 2006
Sawn softwood 2016
Sawn hardwood 2006
Sawn hardwood 2016
Production (%) by continents
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
mill
ion
Sawnwood (m³)Sawn Softwood (m³)Sawn Hardwood (m³)
Source: FAO (2017)
05.10.2017 Slide 12 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Production: Global development Sawn softwood production Production by continents Production shares by continents
− North America most affected by crisis (prod. + share) − Europe lost production shares since crisis, but still higher than 2006 − Asia constantly increased its production share
39 46 43
12
13 16
39 29 31
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Source: FAO (2017)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
million m³
North America
Oceania
Latin America
Asia
Africa
Europe (incl. Russia)
05.10.2017 Slide 13 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Production: Global development Sawn softwood production: Major countries
Source: FAO (2017)
− USA and Canada increased since 2009, but still far below pre-crisis level − China + Russia are constantly increasing their production − Brazil quite stable (∼9m), Japan slightly declining trend (∼12m to ∼8m)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
mill
ion
USA
Canada
Russian Fed.
China
Germany
Sweden
Finland
Brazil
Austria
Japan
Chile
France
Turkey
05.10.2017 Slide 14 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Production: Global development Sawn softwood production: Major European countries
Source: FAO (2017)
− Not very much of a development (except Russia) − A lot of countries are still below pre-crisis level − Mainly eastern European countries are increasing production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
mill
ion
Russian Fed.
Germany
Sweden
Finland
Austria
France
Turkey
Poland
Romania
Czechia
United Kingdom
05.10.2017 Slide 15 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
0 10 20 30
CanadaRussian Fed.
SwedenFinland
GermanyAustria
ChileLatvia
USAUkraine
New ZealandCzechia
BrazilBelarus
Romania
0102030
USAChinaUKJapanEgyptGermanyItalyNetherlandsFranceAlgeriaSaudi ArabiaUzbekistanRep. of KoreaAustriaDenmark
Trade: Actual situation Global trade of sawn softwood
Main exporters and importers 2016 (in million m³, Top 15)
Exporter ∑ 121 mill m³
Importer ∑ 120 mill m³
Source: FAO (2017)
- Rougly one third of global production is traded - Canada, USA, Russia and China are main trader
05.10.2017 Slide 16 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Trade: Actual situation
Global trade by regions 2014
Global trade of sawn softwood
05.10.2017 Slide 17 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Only few growing markets. China is main exception, strongly depended from imports. Consumption in the US sharply declined. EU countries with decreasing markets: IT, UK, FR, SE
Production & Consumption: Global development Change in prod. & cons. of 20 main consumers of sawnwood
Source: FAO, Dieter/Janzen
Comparison: ∅ 2001-2003 and ∅ 2011-2013
05.10.2017 Slide 18 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
CAN
SWE RUS
FIN DEU
AUT USA
NZL CHL LVA ROU
CZE BEL BRA EST SVN UKR POL SVK BLR FRA IRL LTU NOR NLD 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Expo
rt S
hare
201
4-16
Export Share 2004-06
Trade: Competitiveness Development of market shares (Sawn softwood)
Source: FAO (2017)
Development of export shares (exports ∅ 2004-06 and ∅ 2014-16 „pre-crisis and now“)
NZL CHL
LVA
ROU
CZE
BEL BRA
EST SVN
UKR POL SVK BLR
FRA IRL LTU
NOR NLD
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
Expo
rt S
hare
201
4-16
Export Share 2004-06
World exports: 2004-2006: 22.9 bn USD 2014-2016: 25.2 bn USD
05.10.2017 Slide 19 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Demand, use, consumption Example: Use of wood in the German construction sector
Use of wood in the
construction industry
= 100 %
[> 50% of wood
products are used in
construction
New Constructions
( 36% )
Residential construction
Non- residential construction
Modernization ( 64% )
Residential construction
Non- residential construction
( 51% )
( 29% )
( 7% )
( 13% )
Source: Jochem et al. (2016)
05.10.2017 Slide 20 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Demand, use, consumption Example: Use of wood in the German construction sector
Source: Jochem et al. (2016)
What we know: • Several studies examined the influencing factors on
the choice of the construction material in Germany by using surveys.
• Depending on the type of building, the choice of the construction materials is influenced by various factors.
• Non-residential: Price and the construction material that is traditionally used.
• Residential: Also price and tradition, but also other factors like technological factors, or other subjective evaluated factors, such as quality, durability and security.
05.10.2017 Slide 21 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Demand, use, consumption Example: Use of wood in the German construction sector
Non-residential:
Residential:
Under the given conditions and the availability of explanatory variables: significant price influences are not detectable for residential construction in Germany. -> The use of wood in residential construction is primarily determined by other, non-quantifiable factors.
Significant results -> Stronger economic behaviour and subject to trends (consumption of previous year has significant effect)
Analysis: Estimation of own and cross-price elasticities (of wood-base products and substitutes)
Source: Jochem et al. (2016)
05.10.2017 Slide 22 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Forest stock in Europe Stock 2015: Share (without Russia), Quantity in billion m³
Source: FRA 2015
AT: 4%, 1,2
DE: 11%, 3,7
FR: 9%, 2,9
ES: 4%, 1,2
FI: 7%, 2,3 SE: 9%,
3,0 NO: 4%, 1,2
PL: 8%, 2,5
CZ: 2%, 0,8
RO: 6%, 1,9
RU: (71%), 81
UK: 2%, 0,7
LV: 2%, 0,7
IT: 4%, 1,4
Supply II: Potentials Development
LT: 2%, 0,5
SK: 2%, 0,5
HU: 1%, 0,5
BG: 2%, 0,7
RS: 1%, 0,4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
in billion m³ (o.b.)
Russland Europa o. Russland
Mittelosteuropa Mittelwesteuropa
Nordeuropa Südwesteuropa
Südosteuropa
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
BY: 5%, 1,7
UA: 7%, 2,2
•Forest stock in Europe increases continuously •Highest forest stock in Russia, but only little changes
Russia
Middle Eastern Europe
Northern Europe
South Eastern Europe
Europe (excl. Russia)
Middle Western Europe
South Western Europe
05.10.2017 Slide 23 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2002-2012 2013-2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032 2033-2037 2038-2042 2043-2047 2048-2052
mill
. m³/a
WEHAM-Periods
Buche Eiche Fichte Kiefer
Supply II: Potentials Example: Perspectives in Germany
*) Relation of average use 2002-2012 to average potential wood supply 2013-2052 Source: https://bwi.info
98 %
124 %
53 %
68 %
Use*:
NFI3
- Domestic supply of spruce will in future also (possibly) be below (a suggested) demand
- Potentials are mainly to be seen in: Oak, and other hardwoods
Beech Oak Spruce Pine
Wood use by timber species groups versus WEHAM potentials (Base scenario)
05.10.2017 Slide 24 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Source: UN: EFSOS II
→ Results of scenario analysis show great range of possible wood supply in Europe
Supply: Potentials Perspectives
EFSOS II: Outlook Study for Europe 2010 to 2030 European Forest Sector Outlook Study
05.10.2017 Slide 25 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Supply: Potentials Perspectives
Changes in forest area of planted forests until 2030
Source: Carle & Holmgren (2008)
Planted forests only have a minor share on total global forest area. Area of planted forests will increase, also in „pessimistic“ scenario. The area is nearly equally distributed between softwood and hardwood.
Years
05.10.2017 Slide 26 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Supply: Potentials Perspectives
Change in wood production in planted forest until in 2030
Planted forests provide disproportionately more wood supply; mainly for material use. Main increases are expected in Asia and South America.
Total roundwood removal
Years
Source: Carle & Holmgren (2008)
05.10.2017 Slide 27 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Conclusions
• Forest stock is still increasing in Europe. However, potentials are intensely used, regional wood supply might show specific shortages (softwood!). Global potentials will preferably increase in (faster growing) plantations.
• Understanding and further developing of demand/use- mechanisms (here mainly for domestic markets):
• Understand and overcome technical or subjective barriers for wood use (in construction sector)
• Measures to improve image of wood • Provide solutions in combination with new/modified
products – and communicate them!
05.10.2017 Slide 28 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Dr. Holger Weimar Thünen Institute of International Forestry and Forest Economics Leuschnerstr. 91 21031 Hamburg fon: +49 (0)40 73962-314 fax: +49 (0)40 73962-399 mail: [email protected] web: www.thuenen.de
The Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries – Thünen Institute in brief – consists of 14 specialized institutes that carry out research and provide policy advice in the fields of economy, ecology and technology.
Hamburg, 05.10.2017
The (European) market for (sawn) softwood: Aspects of supply, trade, demand, competitiveness and use
Many Thanks!
05.10.2017 Slide 29 Dr. Holger Weimar
ISC 2017 Hamburg
Annex Quellen
Carle J, Holmgren P (2008): Wood from Planted Forests: A Global Outlook 2005-2030. Forest Products Journal 58 (12): 6-18.
Dieter M, Janzen N (2015): Das deutsche Cluster Forst und Holz im Wettbewerb. Tagung Sicherung der Nadelrohholzversorgung. Göttingen, 16.04.2016.
FAO, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2017): ForesSTAT (http://faostat.fao.org/site/626/default.aspx#ancor).
FRA 2015: Global Forest Resources Assessment 2015. Desk reference. FAO, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations: Rome.
Jochem D, Janzen N, Weimar H (2016): Estimation of own and cross price elasticities of demand for wood-based products and associated substitutes in the German construction sector. Journal of Cleaner Production 137(2016): 1216-1227.
Thünen-Institut, Dritte Bundeswaldinventur - Ergebnisdatenbank, https://bwi.info, Aufruf am: 26.01.2017, Auftragskürzel: 77Z1PA_L417mf_0212_bi, Archivierungsdatum: 2014-7-29 14:30:40.527, Überschrift: Vorrat (Erntefestmaß o.R.) des genutzten Bestandes [1000 m³/a] nach Land und Baumartengruppe, Filter: Periode=2002-2012.
Thünen-Institut, Dritte Bundeswaldinventur - Ergebnisdatenbank, https://bwi.info, Aufruf am: 26.01.2017, Auftragskürzel: 43Z1PA_P573of_1252_L40rSF, Archivierungsdatum:2016-3-2 16:52:59.127, Überschrift: projizierter Vorrat (Erntefestmaß o.R.) des Rohholzpotenzials [1000 m³/a] nach Baumartengruppe und Projektionsperiode, Filter: Basisszenario.
United Nations, UN (2011): European Forest Sector Outlook Study II: 2010-2030 (EFSOS II). Geneva Timber and Forest Study Paper 28, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe/Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database: UNComtrade (http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx).