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Challenges & Opportunities

Karine Chartier, Analyst Consumer Foods

The European market for Meat Substitutes

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The rise of the flexitarian

Meat substitutes

Worldwide Google searches show how ‘flexitarian’ is increasingly popular

Sources: Google, Rabobank 2019

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What is driving consumer interest in alternatives to meat?

Source: Rabobank 2019

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Different types of alternatives – at different stages of market maturity

Tofu

Vegetarianburger/

schnitzel etc

Impossible Burger/Beyond

MeatHybrid

Insects/

Lab-grownmeat?

Established Emerging

Source: Rabobank 2019

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The current European meat substitutes market is substantial and growing

2013 2018 202257.4 kg 54.0 kg 52.8 kg

2013 2018 202217.3 kg 16.8 kg 16.8 kg

2013 2018 20220.1 kg 0.2 kg 0.3 kg

(1.2%) (0.6%)

(0.5%) (0.0%)

11.2% 6.9%

Sources: Euromonitor, Rabobank 2019

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32%

16%13%

10%

8%

6%

15%

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Big differences between European countries (1/3)

2018 market size

EUR 1.246 mln

Other

Sources: Euromonitor, Rabobank 2019

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Big differences between European countries (2/3)

Sources: Euromonitor, Rabobank 2019

236 396

748

2013 2018 2023

UK

81 98136

2013 2018 2023

+3.8%+4.5%

NL

125 167 203

2013 2018 2023

+6.0%+4.0%

IT

FRA

25 126248

2013 2018 2023

+41.0%+11.3%

+13.6% +14.6%

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Big differences between European countries (3/3)

GER

100200

2013 2018

+17.1%

Reversal in growth trend 2017-2018:

• Products failed to achieve regular purchases

• Wider availability in supermarkets and discounters

• Many products being on promotions

Fall in unit prices

Rapid changes and innovations in terms of quality/taste improvements might have a positive impact on the future growth rate

Sources: Euromonitor, Rabobank 2019

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Europe: introducing the ‘baskets’

Big Food Animal Protein

Pure Play/Organic Private Label

Source: Rabobank 2019

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Europe: the tide is lifting all boats

Sources: Euromonitor, Rabobank 2019

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How will the shelves look like in the (near) future?

Growing shelf space?

Products

- What is being replaced?

- Technology?

- Ingredients?

Which brands?

Private Label?

Chilled/frozen/shelf stable?

Price?

Source: Rabobank 2019

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Several factors might define who’s winning the battle for the centre of the plate

Branding Power

Cost price

Distribution Power

Innovation/

technology

Manufacturing

Capacity

Source: Rabobank 2019

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The European market: opportunities & challenges

Growing market

Room for everyone

Big Food and Private Label seem to be well positioned

Source: Rabobank 2019

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Karine Chartier

Analyst Consumer Foods

Telephone +31 (0)30 71 21541

Mobile +31 (0)6 1346 8480

E-mail Karine.Chartier@rabobank.com

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