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- 1 -
CAEF Council Meeting – Helsinki - 10-11 June 2016
© CAEF, www.caef.eu
CAEF The European Foundry Association
Council Meeting
Helsinki, 10-11 June 2016
- 2 -
CAEF Council Meeting – Helsinki - 10-11 June 2016
© CAEF, www.caef.eu
Purpose of our meeting
• Information exchange
• Discussion of economic situation
• Raw materials
• Energy
• Technical issues
• Etc.
• Non-topics for our meetings: Prices Quotas Concrete customer relationships Any measures with indirect effect on the topics mentioned above Statistics have to respect these issues
Please take note of the CAEF
anti-trust compliance guideline
- 3 -
CAEF Council Meeting – Helsinki - 10-11 June 2016
© CAEF, www.caef.eu
General economic situation Report by Max Schumacher and updates by the delegates
Item 3
- 4 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Economy and Key Indicators
Background for Foundry Business
Bild: Fotolia
- 5 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
0,5
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Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain UK Turkey USA
GDP First Quarter 2016
Source: Eurostat, national institutes, trade economics
Change in % qoq
Germany: Driven by private consumption and public investments!
France: First signs of life?
Italy: Now back on the growth path? Is this stable enough?
Spain: Strong recovery!
ECB: Current interest-rate level set on “hold”, start buying of
corporate bonds!
- 6 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
1,51,7
1,51,6
1,7 1,71,6
1,11,3
1,11,3
0,8
1,3
1,0
1,3
3,2
2,72,6
2,32,2 2,2
1,9
2,2
3,02,9
2,52,6
2,82,9
1,5
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
2015
2016
2016 n
ew
2017
2015
2016
2016 n
ew
2017
2015
2016
2016 n
ew
2017
2015
2016
2016 n
ew
2017
2015
2016
2016 n
ew
2017
2015
2016
2016 n
ew
2017
2015
2016
2016 n
ew
2017
2015
2016
2016 n
ew
2017
2015
2016
2016 n
ew
2017
2015
2016
2016 n
ew
2017
Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain UK Turkey USA China India
GDP Forecast 2016/2017
Source: IMF, April 2016
Change in % yoy
India: Strong only in view of low raw material prices!
China: Big question marks behind all data!?
USA: Stable growth but a strong dollar makes export business difficult!
Turkey: Strong recovery based on a low level!
EURO Area: Everything set on “zero”
Russia: Recession
Brazil: Recession
- 7 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jan
92
Jan
93
Jan
94
Jan
95
Jan
96
Jan
97
Jan
98
Jan
99
Jan
00
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Jan
16
Jan
17
Ind
ustr
ial
Pro
du
cti
on
Ch
an
ge i
n %
yo
y
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Bu
sin
ess C
lim
ate
Industrial Production Business Climate
Source: Eurostat, Industrial Production March 2016
Euro Area Business Climate Indicator May 2016
Weak Development without Cyclic Movement!
Snapshot: The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area improved. But
managers' production expectations worsened strongly and their views on export order
books remained virtually unchanged.
Economic cycle Economic cycle Investment boom
Recession
Recovery
No (!) cycle
- 8 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Source: Markit
Euro Area Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) May 2016
Lateral Movement
a closer look at the sectors
positive level (>50 points)
Service
Industry
- 9 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Source: Markit
Euro Area GDP vs Purchasing Manager Index (PMI)
PMI complete Index
GDP yoy
• Close relation GDP and PMI
• PMI is the earliest available
information on the current status
• PMI is no forecasting tool!
- 10 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Source: Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM), USA PMI works with a corresponding level of ca. 45 %!
USA Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) May 2016
Strong Dollar vs Low Oil Prices vs Domestic Investments
New Orders Difference to other PMI because of the higher
share of private consumption:
Index above 43 points = expansion of the
overall economy
Comments from the panel:
• "Continued brisk order flow for our
business." (Fabricated Metal Products)
• "Steady to slightly up production rates vs.
prior month." (Machinery)
• "Business is still good, but slowing."
(Transportation Equipment)
• "Oil & Gas continues to struggle to meet cost
controls required in the new low-oil price
environment." (Petroleum & Coal Products)
- 11 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
51,3
49,2
47,7
51,552,1
48,4
52,451,8
50,7
49,6
41,6
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
55,0
USA China Japan Euro
Area
Germany France Italy Spain India Russia Brazil
Selected Countries Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI)
April/May 2016
Source: Markit, tradingeconomics
Index
Index above 50 points
= increasing economy (dominated by
industrial production and service)
- 12 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Business Climate German Suppliers May 2016
Expectations with Negative Saldo Despite the Last Two Months
Source: Ifo München, ArGeZ Arbeitsgemeinschaft Zulieferindustrie
Saisonal adjusted
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Porpotion positve and negative
reports
Current status Perspectives
- 13 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
USA: Positive (dynamic peak reached?)
China: VAT support programme for small cars
with max.1.6 l engines
Europe: Dynamic recovery, but heterogenious
Russia: Chance for bottom out!
Brazil: Recession
Passenger Cars Sales (not! Production) April 2016
Source: VDA
- 14 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Europe Passenger Cars 1-4 2016:
Examples for Stable Recovery
Source: VDA, ACEA, EFTA= Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Liechteinstein
Western Europe
(EU15 + EFTA)
strong market
Important:
Germany
orders in stock
Germany
sales
- 15 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Europe Passenger Cars 1-4 2016 :
Examples for Stable Recovery
Source: VDA, ACEA, * "Programa de Incentivos al Vehículo Eficiente, PIVE 2
France
awaken
UK
peak
passed?
Italy
dynamic
recovery
Spain
special support
programme
„PIVE“ *
- 16 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Europe Passenger Cars 1-4 2016: Russia and Turkey
Source: VDA, Russia = light vehicle
Russia
unbroken negative
despite
„scrappage scheme“
Turkey
flat line
since spring 2015
- 17 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Passenger Cars Sales 1-4 2016: Outside Europe
Source: VDA, Brazil = light trucks
USA
different trends
Brazil
disaster
China since October
VAT incentives
to support the market,
forecast 2016 positive
Japan
downward trend
- 18 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone
Incoming Orders Vehicle Industry
Germany March 2016
External orders under pressure
impact of China
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, saisonal adjusted, calculation BDG
change in %
against period a year
before, cumulative
- 19 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Europe Trucks Sales 1-4 2016: Mirror of the Economy
Source: VDA, ACEA
France
awaken
UK economy is
booming
Peak?
Spain
driven by
incentives
Italy
recovery
- 20 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Trucks Sales 1-4 2016: Outside of Europe
China downturn, change in % yoy
USA boom for heavy
trucks is over?
Forecast -10%!
Brazil
recession
India (>3,5t)
positive development
based on a low volume
Source: VDA, ACEA
- 21 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Global Automotive Industry 2016
Forecast Sales Passenger Cars
Region 2015 2016
World + 1% + 2%
USA + 5% + 1%
China + 4% + 6% (revised up)
W-Europe + 7% + 1%
New EU Countries + 8% + 4%
Germany + 6% + 3% (revised up)
France + 5% + 2%
UK + 6% - 2%
Spain +18% ± 0%
Italy +14% + 7%
Russia - 35% ± 0%
Brazil - 20% further minus
Japan - 9% + 2%
Picture: Fotolia Source: VDA, national associations,
- 22 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
40 branches
roundabout 20 identified as
casting intensive
e.g.
• Machine Tool Industry
• Hydraulics and Pneumatics
• Agricultural Machinery
• Metallurgical Plants and Rolling Mills
• Incoming orders for Germany:
1-4 2016
Impulses: large plant orders Extra EU
= local content impact!
General Engineering – Second Most Important Customer
picture: MS picture: MS
- 23 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Production Incoming Orders
Incoming Orders (IO) General Engineering
Germany March 2016
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
• Incoming orders Germany =>1/3 of the EU market
• 4 years in a row nearly a flat line!
change in %
against period a year
before
01-03.2016
Prod + 1,5 %
IO + 2,7 %
01-12.2015
Prod - 0,8 %
IO + 2,1 %
- 24 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
IO Mining and Building Machinery
Incoming Orders Mining Equipment and Building Machinery
Germany March 2016
01-12.2015
IO - 4,7 %
Building Machines
forecast turnover 2016 + 3%
but
mining equipment and
exploration components
with unbroken weak trend!
change in %
against period a year
before
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
01-03.2016
IO - 10,1 %
- 25 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
IO Pumps and Compressors
Incoming Orders Pumps and Compressors
Germany March 2016
change in %
against period a year
before
pumps and compressors
are suffering because
of low investment level at the
mining industry, base chemicals etc.
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
01-03.2016
IO - 2,7 %
- 26 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
IO Plastics and Rubber Machinery
Incoming Orders Plastics- and Rubber Machines
Germany March 2016
01-12.2015
IO + 9,5 %
unique engineering sector
with positive forecasts 2016 and 2017
despite the weak start in 2016!
change in %
against period a year
before
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
01-03.2016
+ 2,0 %
- 27 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
IO Domestic IO External IO Euro Area IO Extra Euro Area
Incoming Orders Plastics- and Rubber Machines
Germany March 2016
change in %
against period a year
before
Suprising:
Orders from Southern Europe
are very strong!!
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
- 28 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
IO Agriculture Machinery
Incoming Orders Agriculture Machinery
Germany March 2016
01-12.2015
IO - 0,3 %
Orders with temporary bottom out?
Forecast 2016 negative!
change in %
against period a year
before
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
01-03.2016
ÎO - 1,5 %
- 29 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
IO Domestic IO External IO Euro Area IO Extra Euro Area
Incoming Orders Agriculture Machinery
Germany March 2016
01-3.2016
Domestic - 6,6 %
External + 0,8 %
thereof
Euro Area + 3,7 %
Extra Euro Area - 2,3 %
In autumn 2015 incoming orders from France!
Just a flash in the pan!
change in %
against period a year
before
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
- 30 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
IO Textile Machinery
Incoming Orders Textile Machinery
Germany March 2016
change in %
against period a year
before
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
Bottom out and recovery trend
since summer 2015
01-03.2016
IO - 0,4 %
- 31 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Linie 1 IO DomesticIO External IO Euro AreaIO Extra Euro Area 3 Per. Gleitender Durchschnitt (Linie 1)
Incoming Orders Textile Machinery
Germany March 2016
01-03.2016
Domestic + 5,8 %
External - 1,6 %
thereof
Euro Area - 6,1 %
Extra Euro Area – 0,5 % change in %
against period a year
before
Suprising:
Orders from Southern Europe
are very strong!!
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
- 32 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
IO Valves and Fittings
Incoming Orders Valves and Fittings (Industry and Buildings)
Germany March 2016
Industrial valves and fittings
Incoming orders 2015 - 1%,
China demand weak, exports - 6 %
Forecast 2016: Stagnation
change in %
against period a year
before
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
01-03.2016
IO + 1,1 %
- 33 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Short Range Outlook World Steel Industry
Source: World Steel
- 34 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
General Engineering 2016
Heterogenious Forecasts for the Different Sectors
Source: VDMA, change in % against prev. Year, * = 3-5%
Forecast 2016 2015
Robotic, Automation
Test and Measurement Technology
Food and Packing Machines
Textile Machines
Print and Paper Machines
Air Technology
Foundry Machines
Valves and Fittings
Process Engineering
Building + Building Material
Machines
Compressors + Vacuum Technology
Drive Technology
Liquid Pumps
Engines and Systems
Agricultural Machinery
Mining Equipment
Metallurgical Plants and Equipment
June 2016: revised down Foundry Machines -5%!
- 35 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Short Summary
Bild: Fotolia, Nesterov Vasily;
- 36 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Chances • Passenger cars: Positive impulses in the USA and dynamic replacement trend in Europe, 2016
peak for the US and EU? Weakness in Russia and South America, China with big question marks!
• Commercial vehicles: EU market is running well but uncertainties about medium-term perspectives
for China, Russia and the Americas.
• General Engineering: 2016 only stagnation!
Positive: tool machines, automation, robotics, foundry machines and rubber- and plastic machines
wind turbines (volume ok, prices under pressure)
Negative (temporary): mining, agrícultural, paper machines
low capacity utilisation in the EU as well as low raw material prices are dumpening
investments
• Further impulses possible from the building industry (in the long term!)
Risks • Unchanged: Overcapacities in Europe – hard price competition – structural change
• Raising key interest rates in the USA will lead to further capital outflow from emerging markets
• Chinese cooling down
• Geopolitical crises
• Brexit (!?)
Perspectives for the Foundries 2016
- 37 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
European Foundry Industry – High and Low Close Together
Expectations Unchanged
Source: Eisenwerk Brühl, Bernd Rosenbaum
- 38 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ferrous and Steel Castings Non Ferrous Castings
Source: CAEF
CAEF Foundry Industry Production Ferrous and Non-Ferrous
in m. t
- 39 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ferrous and Steel Castings thereof Steel Castings
Source: CAEF
CAEF Foundry Industry Production Ferrous and Steel
in m. t
- 40 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ferrous and Steel Castings Non Ferrous Castings
Source: CAEF
CAEF Foundry Industry Production Ferrous and Non-Ferrous
Index 2006=100
- 41 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ferrous and Steel Castings thereof Steel Castings
Source: CAEF
CAEF Foundry Industry Production Ferrous and Steel
Index 2006=100
- 42 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
CAEF Ferrous and Steel Castings 2015
Stagnation as Launching Ramp for 2016
Source CAEF in 1000 t, a) estimated, b) without investment castings, c) calculated with average rate of change of reporting countries
Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 : 2013 2015 : 2014
+/- %
Austria 160,8 150,0 152,7 155,4 155,9 1,7 0,3
Belgium 78,3 74,4 71,4 76,5 71,6 7,1 -6,4
Croatia 40,8 41,3 42,8 43,5 43,3 c) 1,7 -0,4
Czech Rep. 365,7 336,7 328,0 293,5 a) 289,0 a) -10,5 -1,5
Denmark 79,2 76,2 78,9 77,9 3,6 -1,2
Finland 91,5 78,6 70,1 63,3 59,0 -9,8 -6,7
France 1.674,7 1.436,4 1.419,2 1.393,6 1.328,5 -1,8 -4,7
Germany d) 4.540,2 4.267,4 4.122,7 4.150,9 4.085,4 0,7 -1,6
Hungary 56,8 52,6 69,0 86,6 92,1 25,5 6,3
Italy 1.235,0 b) 1.115,4 b) 1.146,3 b) 1.164,0 b) 1.130,7 1,5 -2,9
Lithuania
The
Netherlands
Norway 58,2 52,8 53,3 40,1 33,7 -24,8 -15,9
Poland 678,7 a) 688,0 700,0 700,0 a) 709,0 a) 0,0 1,3
Portugal 127,6 116,9 108,3 121,5 137,9 12,2 13,5
Slovenia 145,2 159,0 143,8 153,1 152,5 c) 6,5 -0,4
Spain 1.106,3 985,5 976,3 1.006,2 1.002,2 c) 3,1 -0,4
Sweden 251,1 228,4 228,3 231,6 261,2 1,4 12,8
Switzerland 62,8 47,8 47,3 45,1 38,1 -4,5 -15,4
Turkey 1.262,5 1.260,0 1.243,0 1.400,0 1.470,0 12,6 5,0
United
Kingdom 441,8 396,3 363,1 371,2 387,3 2,2 4,3
Total CAEF 12.457,1 11.487,4 11.361,7 11.574,9 11.525,4 1,9 -0,4
- 43 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Jan
08
Mai
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
Mai
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
Mai
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
Mai
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
Mai
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
Mai
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
Mai
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
Mai
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
Mai
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
current situation expectations for six months
FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator
(Ferrous) May 2016
Source CAEF, Index 2010 = 100, recalculation since Jan 2014: country weight based on production 2013 (incl. Croatia)
Expectations under pressure despite
January 2016:
Downward trend on the ferrous side
plus gap between status and perspectives
- 44 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan
08
Mai
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
Mai
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
Mai
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
Mai
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
Mai
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
Mai
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
Mai
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
Mai
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
Mai
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
current situation expectations for six months
FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator
(Steel Castings) May 2016
Data collection has started December 2013
Source CAEF, Index Nov 2013 = 100, recalculation since Jan 2014: country weight based on production 2013 (incl. Croatia)
Current status and expectations
extremely weak!
- 45 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
CAEF Non-Ferrous 2015
The Third Positive Year in a Row!?
Source CAEF in 1000 t, a) estimated, b) without copper castings, c) revised figures d) calculated with average rate of change of reporting countries
Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 : 2013 2015 : 2014
+/- %
Austria 149,1 142,4 131,6 138,0 140,7 4,9 2,0
Belgium 1,2 0,8 1,7 1,9 2,2 9,1 18,4
Croatia 13,0 13,0 20,0 22,3 23,8 d) 11,5 7,0
Czech Rep. 94,3 92,0 95,0 a) 108,0 a) 116,0 a) 13,7 7,4
Denmark 4,7 4,1 4,0 4,3 -3,4 9,9
Finland 7,8 6,9 7,6 7,1 8,0 -6,8 12,9
France 371,8 362,3 328,9 335,8 356,9 2,1 6,3
Germany 991,2 c) 988,2 c) 1.007,1 c) 1.134,2 1.221,3 12,6 7,7
Hungary 105,2 102,6 104,6 108,2 112,4 3,4 3,9
Italy 978,3 844,3 825,4 860,9 900,5 4,3 4,6
Lithuania
The
Netherlands
Norway 7,0 5,6 b) 6,5 b) 6,6 b) 7,2 b) 1,4 10,0
Poland 279,2 348,0 358,0 358,0 a) 353,0 a) 0,0 -1,4
Portugal 24,4 29,2 30,6 34,9 45,4 14,2 30,1
Slovenia 34,9 33,4 38,8 44,9 48,0 d) 15,8 7,0
Spain 132,4 133,4 131,3 135,6 145,1 d) 3,3 7,0
Sweden 57,2 55,0 56,9 58,2 62,6 2,3 7,6
Switzerland 24,4 21,6 19,1 20,4 18,1 7,0 -11,4
Turkey 170,5 185,0 300,0 300,0 380,0 0,0 26,7
United
Kingdom 135,1 124,0 123,1 131,0 131,0 6,4 0,0
Total CAEF 3.581,7 3.487,4 3.590,2 3.809,9 4.076,6 6,1 7,0
- 46 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Jan
08
Mai
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
Mai
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
Mai
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
Mai
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
Mai
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
Mai
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
Mai
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
Mai
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
Mai
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
current situation expectations for six months
FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator
(Non-ferrous) May 2016
Source CAEF, Index 2010 = 100, recalculation since Jan 2014: country weight based on production 2013 (incl. Croatia)
Quite optimistic:
Current status = relaxed
non-ferrous foundries are expecting
continuation of the positive trends!
- 47 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Quick Survey CAEF Council
Current Status/Perspectives Ferrous
- 48 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Business current
status
Incoming orders Cost expectations: Personnel Material Energy Business
expectations
Quick Survey Council
Current Status/Perspectives Ferrous
Positive or increasing
…% of the foundries
Source: CAEF
Not satisfactory or decreasing
…% of the foundries
- 49 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
- replacement and/or rationalisation - expansion and/or restructuring
planned in progress not planned
Quick Survey Council
Investments Ferrous
Source: CAEF, in % of the foundries
- 50 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Quick Survey CAEF Council
Further Comments Ferrous
Current problems flat market, lake of visibility France
Very high energy costs. Tight environment and waste requests. Portugal
Short orderstock. Difficult to predict the 2 nd half of 2016 Sweden
The size of the inland market has not expanded during the last years, even decreased (steel casting). The increasing of the production was basicaly based upon two foreign owned companies which are exported all their products. Hungary
Impulses to discuss in the next meeting price decrease France
SPECIFICATIONS FOR IRON SCRAP FOR FOUNDRY (packages, cupola,…), CAEF Index Italy
Closures MT Technologies (113 ?) - steel investment castings France
6 plants Germany
New installations
The two biggest and multi national companies enlarge very much their capacities, the others realise smal investments and renewing/ rectructuring. Hungary
New nodular iron plant in construction. Start of production beggining 2017. Portugal
- 51 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Quick Survey CAEF Council
Current Status/Perspectives Non-Ferrous
- 52 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Business current
status
Incoming orders Cost expectations: Personnel Material Energy Business
expectations
Quick Survey Council
Current Status/Perspectives Non-Ferrous
Positive or increasing
…% of the foundries
Source: CAEF
Not satisfactory or decreasing
…% of the foundries
- 53 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
- replacement and/or rationalisation - expansion and/or restructuring
planned in progress not planned
Quick Survey Council
Investments Non-Ferrous
Source: CAEF, in % of the foundries
- 54 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Quick Survey CAEF Council
Further Comments Non-Ferrous
Current problems
Impulses to discuss in the next meeting aluminium Tariffs, aluminium Premiums Italy
Closures 1 plant Germany
New installations
New aluminium die-casting plant from an international group installed in 2015, for the production of automotive components. New plant from the same group to be installed in 2016. Portugal
some planned and 1 new Austria
Continuous, the export markets is more than 85% and are much wider then the running capacities. Hungary
- 55 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
German Foundry Industry
- 56 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
German Foundry Industry 2015 by Material (Production)
Source: BDG, Stat. BA
Ferrous complete
4,085 m. t
-1,6 %
7,015 bn Euro
-2,9 %
thereof
Iron castingss
2,338 m. t, -1,8 %
Ductile castingss
1,551 m. t, -0,8 %
Steel castingss
196 800 t, -4,6 %
Non-ferrous complete
1,221 m. t
+7,7 %
5,743 bn Euro
+4,6 %
thereof
Aluminium
1,072 t, +7,9 %
Magnesium
15 200 t, +2,1 %,
Copper
79 400 t, +10,2 %
Zinc
54 700 t, +2,6 %
- 57 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
German Foundry Industry 2015 by Customer (Production)
Ferrous complete
4,085 m. t
-1,6 %
7,015 bn Euro
-2,9 %
thereof
Vehicle industry (56 % share)
2 ,305 m. t, + 0,2 %
Engineering (25 % share)
1,001 m. t, - 5 %
Other (19 % share)
0,780 m. t, -2,1 %
Non-ferrous complete
1,221 m. t
+7,7 %
5,743 bn Euro
+4,6 %
thereof
Vehicle industry (80 % share)
0,979 m. t, + 12 %
Other (20 % share) *
0,242 m. t, - 7 %
* Engineering (<1 % share)
Source: BDG, Stat. BA
- 58 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
German Foundry Industry 1-4 2016 by Material (Production)
Source: BDG, Stat. BA
Ferrous complete
1.385 m. t
-3,5 %
thereof
Iron castingss
790 300 t, -3,1 %
Ductile castingss
530 900 t, -3,0 %
Steel castingss
63 400 t, -11,5 %
Non-ferrous complete
409 000 t
-4,3 %
thereof
Aluminium
354 800 t, -5,4 %
Magnesium
6 100 t, +9,4 %,
Copper
28 700 t, +4,1 %
Zinc
19 400 t, +1,7 %
- 59 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Fahrzeugbau Maschinenbau Gießerei-Industrie
Foundry Industry
01-04.2016 - 4,4 %
Quelle: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG
Change in %
against previous
year
Vehicle Industry
01-04.2016 - 0,1 %
Engineering Industry
01-04.2016 + 0,8 %
Foundry Industry Incoming Orders Germany
Step to Recovery?
Foundry Industry
1-12.2015 - 1,7 %
Vehicle Industry
1-12.2015 + 1,4 %
Engineering
Industry
1-12.2015 + 2,1 %
- 60 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Iron castings
01-04.2016 - 4,5 %
Incoming Orders Iron Castings: Bottom Out!
Incoming Orders Steel Castings: High Volatility on Low Level!
Steel castings
01-04.2016 - 22,8 %
Quelle: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG
Change in %
against previous
year
Vehicle Industry
01-04.2016 - 0,1 %
Engineering Industry
01-04.2016 + 0,8 %
Iron castings
1-12.2015 - 3,4 %
Steel castings
1-12.2015 - 7,5 %
Vehicle Industry
1-12.2015 + 1,4 %
Engineering
Industry
1-12.2015 + 2,1 %
- 61 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Incoming Orders Non-Ferrous Castings: Holding Level of 2015!
Light metal castings
01-04.2016 - 0,6 %
Heavy Metal
castings
01-04.2016 + 0,1 %
Quelle: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG
Change in %
against previous
year
Vehicle Industry
01-04.2016 - 0,1 %
Engineering Industry
01-04.2016 + 0,8 %
Light metal castings
1-12.2015 + 1,7 %
Heavy Metal
castings
1-12.2015 - 0,8 %
Vehicle Industry
1-12.2015 + 1,4 %
Engineering
Industry
1-12.2015 + 2,1 %
- 62 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan
11
Mrz
11
Mai
11
Jul
11
Sep
11
Nov
11
Jan
12
Mrz
12
Mai
12
Jul
12
Sep
12
Nov
12
Jan
13
Mrz
13
Mai
13
Jul
13
Sep
13
Nov
13
Jan
14
Mrz
14
Mai
14
Jul
14
Sep
14
Nov
14
Jan
15
Mrz
15
Mai
15
Jul
15
Sep
15
Nov
15
Jan
16
Mrz
16
Mai
16
Monat/Jahr
Source: Ifo-Institut, München, BDG
The Foundry Manager are More Sceptical – Uncertainties for the
Next Six Months Driven by the Ferrous and Steel Side!
Optimism:
Improvement is expected by…% of the foundries
Scepticism:
Worsening is expected by…% of the foundries
- 63 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Capacity Utilisation Foundry Industry Germany II. Q. 2016
Source: ifo, BDG at the beginning of every quarter
% of full capacity operation
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
I.09 II.09 III.09 IV.09 I.10 II.10 III.10 IV.10 I.11 II.11 III.11 IV.11 I.12 II.12 III.12 IV.12 I.13 II.13 III.13 IV.13 I.14 II.14 III.14 IV.14 I.15 II.15 III.15 IV.15 I. 16 II. 16
- 64 -
CAEF Council Meeting – Helsinki - 10-11 June 2016
© CAEF, www.caef.eu
CAEF The European Foundry Association
Council Meeting
Helsinki, 10-11 June 2016