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The Engineer of 2020

Visions of the Future of Engineering

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National Academy of Engineering

• Fall 2002 workshop– Envision the engineer

of 2020

http://www.nae.edu/nae/naehome.nsf

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Our 21st Century World

• Changes over last century– Engineering, through technology, has “forged an

irreversible imprint on our lives and our identity” – The developed world

• Longer, healthier lives

• Improved work and living conditions

• Global communication

• Ease of transit

• Access to art and culture

• Moral and ethical challenge for the future– Make the same true for the developing world

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Population & Demographics

• Global challenges– The world will become more crowded

• 8 billion by 2020

– There will be more centers of dense population• Mostly in countries in the developing world

– Many will live in regions with fewer technological resources

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Population & Demographics

• Aging society in the developed world– By 2050, ratio of taxpaying workers to nonworking

pensioners in US will fall from 4:1 to 2:1

• Impacts:– Economic stress– Increasing demands on health care system– Heightened labor force tensions– Increasing political instability

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Population & Demographics

• 2000 US Census– By 2050, almost half the US population will be non-

white

• Challenges:– Engineering profession must develop acceptable

solutions to an increasingly diverse population– Engineering schools must attract students from under-

represented sectors

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Population & Demographics

• The “Youth Bulge” & Security Implications– Nations in many politically unstable parts of the world

• Disproportionate number of 15- to 29-year olds

– Results• Continued social and political unrest and threats from terrorism

and religious fundamentalism• Increased need for military services and security measures at

home and abroad• Migration from youth bulge countries to rapidly aging countries

may mitigate the problem• US concerns regarding increased terrorism will probably limit

this migration– Increased need for engineering schools to attract domestic students

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The Global Environment

• Natural resource & environmental concerns– Increasing demand for energy

• Declining petroleum production and reserves

– Global deforestation– Increasing demands for potable water

• Falling water tables in China, India, & US, which produce half the world’s food supply

– Global warming– Depletion of the ozone layer

• Challenges:– Ecologically sustainable practices– Technological solutions coupled with conservation

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Breakthrough Technologies

• Biotechnology

• Nanotechnology

• Materials Science & Photonics

• Information & Communications Technology

• The Information Explosion

• Logistics

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Biotechnology

• Tissue engineering & regenerative medicine– Replacement skin for burn patients– Spinal cord repair– Repair/replacement meniscal and articular cartilage– Repair/replace bladder

http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/04/03/engineered.organs/index.html

http://www.jhu.edu/news_info/news/home02/aug02/stemcell.html

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Biotechnology

• Nanotechnology & MEMS

• Bioinformatics

• Defense against biological and chemical weapons– Civil engineers understand transport characteristics

of agents and diffusivity in air and water supplies– Mechanical engineers devise pumps and filters able

to deal with airborne and waterborne agents– Electrical engineers design sensing and detection

instruments

http://www.tastechip.com/cardiac/cardiac_diagnostics_research.html

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Biotechnology

• Safety & reliability considerations– Engineers must acquire basic knowledge about

biological systems– Engineers must pay attention to fault-tolerant designs

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Nanotechnology

• Multidisciplinary– Bioengineering– Materials science– Electronics

http://www.nanoengineer-1.com/mambo/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=60&Itemid=57&PHPSESSID=855def63bf78

fef91ffed786f044ba5d

http://www.physorg.com/news83421615.html

http://cohesion.rice.edu/centersandinst/cben/research.cfm?doc_id=5091

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Nanotechnology

• Possible future technologies– Environmental cleaning agents– Chemical detection agents– Creation of biological organs– Development of NEMS– Development of ultrafast,

ultradense electrical and optical circuits http://www.media.rice.edu/media/Current_Issue.asp?

SnID=1140090185

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Materials Science & Photonics

• Traditional engineering disciplines will increasingly incorporate new materials– Composites– Atomic-scale machines– Molecular-based nanostructures– Smart materials & structures– New fuel cell technologies– Optical sources

• Decreasing physical size

• Increasing power and reliability

http://designinsite.dk/htmsider/md950.htm

http://designinsite.dk/htmsider/m1306.htm

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Information & Communications Technology

• To appreciate the potential, consider those technologies that your parents lived without– Personal computers– Cellular phones– Photocopiers– Fax machines– Video conferencing– Internet

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Information & Communications Technology

• Foreseeable future– Pocket-sized 10 gig hard drives and computers– Desktop machines and software powerful enough to

make routine activities of contemporary engineers obsolete

– Worldwide broadband networks• Huge volumes of data

• Realtime collaboration anywhere in the world

• Perceptions of connectedness, location, & access will continue to change

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Information & Communications Technology

• Imperative for engineers– Accommodate connectivity– Develop a role for core competencies in

• Fundamentals of digital systems, electronics, electromagnetics, photonics, discrete & continuous mathematics, materials

– Cultivate skills related to use of IT for communications purposes

– Remain state of the art in IT and updated common engineering practices

– Make common use of computer-based design-build engineering

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The Information Explosion

• Exponential growth in data and knowledge– Previously, possible for a person to be conversant

about much of science, mathematics, medicine, music, and the arts

– Today, an individual’s area of expertise continues to diminish in relation to total body of knowledge

• Example of future Health care today– Specialists

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The Information Explosion

• Engineering’s response to explosion of knowledge– Past Develop new areas of focus with increased

depth of individual knowledge and decreased breadth of knowledge

– Future The ability to function on interdisciplinary level is critical for solving complex problems

• Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) mission

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Logistics

• Revolution in movement of goods & services and improved productivity– Wireless communication– Handheld computers– Inventory tracking and database software

• “Just-in-time” manufacturing– Far-flung networks of suppliers and manufacturing

units linked together

• Future Challenge of moving goods and services more efficiently will continue

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Technological Challenges

• Physical Infrastructures in Urban Settings

• Information & Communications Infrastructure

• The Environment

• Technology for an Aging Population

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Physical Infrastructures in Urban Settings

• Past & present approaches to urban development– Attention to human services & private-sector

requirements– Insufficient attention to environmental impact &

sustainability

• Result Large cities are the victims of– Pollution– Traffic & transportation infrastructure concerns– Decreasing greenery– Poor biodiversity– Disparate educational services

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Physical Infrastructures in Urban Settings

• Arguably, the US has the best physical infrastructure in the developed world

• BUT these infrastructures are in serious decline– Water treatment– Waste disposal– Transportation– Energy facilities

• Engineering is ideally positioned to address these issues– Requires the will of public leaders & the general public

• Security enhancements global terrorism

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Information & Communications Infrastructure

• More recent vintage has not suffered the ravages of time

• Vulnerabilities include accidental or intentional events– Malicious attacks– System overloads– Natural disasters

• Profound effect on our national economy, our national and personal security, and our lifestyles

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Information & Communications Infrastructure

• Future public & private sectors must develop strategies & take actions to– Continually update the infrastructure to keep pace with

technology– Increase capacity to respond to the rapid growth in

information and communications technology-related services– Develop and design systems with a global perspective– Work to increase security and reliability– Consider issues of privacy

• Actions will involve legal, regulatory, economic, business, & social considerations

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The Environment

• Natural resource and environmental concerns– Increasing demand for energy– Fossil fuel supply– Increasing demand for potable water– Global deforestation– Global warming– Depletion of ozone layer

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Energy

• California projections for 2020 compared to 2000 usage (California Business, Transportation, and Housing Agency, 2001)

– 40% more electrical capacity– 40% more gasoline– 20% more natural gas energy

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Fossil Fuel http://www.oilposter.org/

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Water

• Within the next 20 years, virtually every nation will face some type of water supply problem (UN World

Water Development Report, 2003)

– China, India, and the United States• Produce half the world’s food

• Are experiencing falling water tables

– Presently• More than 1 billion people have little access to clean

drinking water

• 2 billion live in conditions of water scarcity

– Future water supplies will affect the world’s economy and its stability

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Global Deforestation

• Global per capita forest area (Forest & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,

1995)

– Projected to fall to 1/3 of its 1990 value by 2020– Due to population growth in tropical areas and

shrinking forest area

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Sustainability

• Ecologically sustainable practices must be developed and implemented to preserve our environment– In both industrialized and developing nations

• Conservation must be combined with technological innovation– Engineers need to be educated to consider issues of

sustainable development– “Green engineering”

• Embed social and cultural objectives into traditional engineering focus on technical & economic viability

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Technology for an Aging Population

• New technologies can help an aging population maintain healthy, productive lifestyles well beyond conventional retirement age– Engineering can address the challenges of aging

• Assistive technology– Accommodate people of all ages who are challenged

by physical or other limitations

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Technology for an Aging Population

• Several areas for improved services for aging patients (Center for Aging Services Technologies, 2003)

– Monitors, sensors, robots, and smart housing• Allow elderly to maintain independent lifestyles• Alleviate the burdens on care providers & government

programs

– Operational technologies that help service providers reduce labor costs or prevent medical errors

– Connective technologies that help elderly communicate– Telemedicine

• Provide basic or specialized services to patients in remote locations or to amplify access to medical services

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Conclusion

• “The comfortable notion that a person learns all that he or she needs to know in a four-year engineering program just is not true and never was.” (NAE, 2004)