A magnificent anachronism

The Electoral College

Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives

Discuss the Electoral College and the strategy of presidential campaigns

Why all The Anger- The 2000 Election of Course

The Media called the election too soon

The Supreme Court intervened

The Popular vote winner did not win the Presidency

A brief period of anger

HRC says her first act as Senator would be to reform it

And O.J. said he would spend all of his time trying to find the real killer

Institutional reform trumps anger

2004 a Close Call

Ohio was very close

A small Number of People could have swung the election

http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/pe2004whatif.html

But problems remain

Obama Saves the electoral college!

Problems of the Electoral College

Faithless electors http://archive.fairvote.org/e_college/faithless.htm

Problem of the Unit Rule

Problems of the Electoral College

Potential for Gridlock

Over-representation of small states

Minor parties are always hurt, everywhere, all the time

Problems of the Electoral College

Potential for Minority-Vote winner (2000, 1996, 1992, 1968, 1960)

Potential for a wrong winner

http://www.entertonement.com/clips/wyscptdhjq--Dune-Sian-Phillips-The-Reverend-Mother-Gaius-Helen-Mohiam-Kyle-MacLachlan-Tried-And-Failed-Tried-and-Died

Attempts at Reform

Attempts at Reform

1950

1969

1979

Some States have made changes

Article II, Section I allows the states to decide how they choose their electors

Maine and Nebraska use a different method (Congressional District Winner + overall winner)

Potential Reforms!

The Proportional Plan The District Plan The Direct Plan State Compact-National Popular Vote

The Proportional Plan

This plan divides Electoral votes based on the popular vote totals from each state.

Advantages

The District Plan

A state’s Electoral Vote is equal to the number of Senators (2) plus the number of Representatives which varies by state.

Advantages

The Direct Plan

The other plans keep the Electoral College intact, this plan deems the NATIONWIDE popular vote winner as the president.

Advantages

DIFFERENT ELECTIONS UNDER EACH SCENARIO

The Election of 1960

  Winner Kennedy Nixon Other

Present Plan Kennedy Wins 303 219 15

Proportional Plan No Winner 264.8 263.5 7.7

District Plan Nixon Wins 245 278 14

Direct Plan Nixon Wins 49.46 49.54 0.001

The Election of 1968

 

Winner Nixon Humphrey Wallace

Present Plan Nixon Wins 301 191 46

Proportional Plan No Winner 231.5 225.4 78.8

District Plan Nixon Wins 289 192 57

Direct Plan Nixon Wins 43.4 42.7 13.5

The Election of 1976

  Winner Carter Ford Other

Present Plan Carter Wins 297 240 1

Proportional Plan No Winner 269.5 258 10.5

District Plan No Winner 269 269

Direct Plan Carter Wins 50.1 48 1.9

The Election of 1992

 

Winner Clinton Bush Perot

Present Plan Clinton Wins 370 168 0

Proportional Plan No Winner 232.1 203.7 102.2

District Plan Clinton Wins 326 212

Direct Plan Clinton Wins 43.01 37.45 18.91

The Election of 2000

 

Winner Bush Gore Other

Present Plan Bush Wins 286 251 1

Proportional Plan No Winner 260.8 259.9 17.4

District Plan Bush Wins 288 250

Direct Plan Gore Wins 47.9 48.4 1

The Election of 2004

  Winner Bush Kerry Other

Present Plan Bush Wins 286 251 1

Proportional Plan Bush Wins 275 258 4.5

District Plan Bush Wins 317 221

Direct Plan Bush Wins 50.7 48.3 1

Disadvantages of Each

The Direct Plan

Under this plan, 2 elections would have vastly different results

1960- Nixon defeats Kennedy 2000- Gore Defeats Bush

Recounts, Runoffs, Fraud

The Proportional Plan

This is the most unsteady 1960, 1968, 1976,1992, 1996, 2000

Do we want George Wallace to determine our president?

Colorado failed to Pass and Amendment on this

The District Plan

This would increase the amount of Gerrymandering beyond its current state.

Changes several Elections

No major state has tried it

State Compact

Working its Way through the states http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

Electors would be required to vote for the popular vote winner

The Matter of the Constitution

WILL IT CHANGE?

The Electoral CollegeGet Used to it

What Is Necessary for Change

Institutional Difficulties

Why No Change?- Some Groups love it!

The Parties

Small States

Big States

Battleground states

Advantages of the System

A Proven Track Record

Faithless electors are more fun than anything else

The Evil Best Known is the Most Tolerable

Advantages of the E.C.

Minority Groups

Presidents

Federalism

The 2008 Election

The Obama victory preserved the Electoral College

Absolutely no question about legitimacy

The Fear of Unanticipated Consequences