The Elbe 2002 Case Daniela Jacob, Stefan Hagemann, Sven Kotlarski Philip Lorenz, Susanne Pfeifer, Ralf Podzun Max-Planck-Institut for Meteorology, Hamburg,

The Elbe 2002 Case

Daniela Jacob, Stefan Hagemann, Sven Kotlarski Philip Daniela Jacob, Stefan Hagemann, Sven Kotlarski Philip Lorenz, Susanne Pfeifer, Ralf PodzunLorenz, Susanne Pfeifer, Ralf Podzun Max-Planck-Institut for Meteorology, Hamburg, GermanyMax-Planck-Institut for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004

heavy precipitation heavy precipitation

flooding, land slides…..flooding, land slides…..

heat waves heat waves

drought, fires…..drought, fires…..

local to regional extension with high impact to local to regional extension with high impact to societysociety

Will Europe face more extremes?


Dresden, August 2002Dresden, August 2002

• Century flood of Rhine and Moselle in December 1993Century flood of Rhine and Moselle in December 1993

• Century flood again of Rhine and Moselle in January 1995Century flood again of Rhine and Moselle in January 1995

• Century flood of the Oder in July 1997Century flood of the Oder in July 1997

• Flood of the Danube and Lake Constance in May 1999Flood of the Danube and Lake Constance in May 1999

• Extensive and long-lasting floods in western Europe, inExtensive and long-lasting floods in western Europe, in particular south England and Wales, in the autumn of 2000 particular south England and Wales, in the autumn of 2000

• Flood of the Vistula in July 2001 Flood of the Vistula in July 2001

• Flood of the Danube in August 2002Flood of the Danube in August 2002

• Century flood of the Elbe in August 2002Century flood of the Elbe in August 2002

• Extreme precipitation and dreadful floods in southernExtreme precipitation and dreadful floods in southern France in September 2002 France in September 2002

• Severe flooding in parts along German rivers in JanuarySevere flooding in parts along German rivers in January 2003 2003

source: Spiegel Nr. 7 2003; Quarterly report of the DWD, special topic July 2003source: Spiegel Nr. 7 2003; Quarterly report of the DWD, special topic July 2003


Elbe catchment area

A = 148.268

km2

(65.6 % D, 33.7 % CZ)


Rudolf & Rapp (2003) :

The century flood of the river elbe in August 2002: synoptic weather development and climatological aspects





Aus Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (2002) : Das Augusthochwasser 2002 im Elbegebiet





Aus Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (2002) : Das Augusthochwasser 2002 im Elbegebiet



Dresden Wittenberg Magdeburg

Wittenberge Neu Darchau

Catchments


Precipitation [mm / 72h]

catchment REMO climate REMO forecast Observations *

Elbe 52 (65%) 68 (83%) 80

Dresden 82 (82%) 89 (90%) 99

Magdeburg 64 (72%) 71 (79%) 89

Wittenberge 58 (68%) 74 (87%) 85

Wittenberg 82 (80%) 91 (89%) 102

Neu Darchau 56 (70%) 72 (92%) 79

All data: 2002-08-11 06:00 UTC to 2002-08-14 06:00 UTC

* Observations taken from: Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde: „Das Augusthochwasser 2002 im Elbegebiet“


REMO + HD, DRESDEN


REMO + HD, Wittenberg


REMO + HD, Magdeburg


Is it possible to simulate such extreme precipitation events as sub grid scale processes in regional climate models (this is a prerequisite for climate change studies)?

Which role plays the microphysics?

Microphysics versus realistic simulation of the synoptic scale?

Conclusions / Questions


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Documents

The Elbe 2002 Case Daniela Jacob, Stefan Hagemann, Sven Kotlarski Philip Lorenz, Susanne Pfeifer, Ralf Podzun Max-Planck-Institut for Meteorology, Hamburg,