The Effects of Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons

8/9/2019 The Effects of Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons

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Strategic Studies Quarterly Summer 2009 [13]

Dr. Aysa Ray is a assisa rssr iica scic a Kigs Cg, Psyaia. S rcir PD i iica scic r Uirsiy xas a Ausi i 2008 a MA a MPi grsi iraia rais r Jawaara Nru Uirsiy, Nw Di. T augr a rir Iiaiiary cia, Dr. Ray as s ay yars raig, wriig, a cucig rsarc scuriy issusi Su Asia. Hr scic ara xris as wi cii-iiary rais i ucar wa sas. S

is curry wrkig a bk wic arsss cius issus bw ciiias a iiary iIia i saw ucar was.

The Effects of Pakistans Nuclear Weaponson Civil-Military Relations in India

Ayesha Ray

he development Pakisas ucar was rgra i 1980scai srius iicais r Iia cii-iiary rais i 1990s. wars a 1980s, Iias bri bu risky iiary curs

wi Pakisa a rai is ucar rgra ra-aicay sa Iia aracs us ucar was i

1990s. N y was r a uaa si i Iia iicaaius wars ucar cgy r sragic us,bu r iray, Iia iiary bga ayig a criica r i w sragic cris wic cu ciy a

wi a Pakisai ucar aack. T Iia iiarys r i ifucig ucar sragy is a criica ar ui iIia cii-iiary aracs ucar icy. Mr iray, iiarys as assr is xris i ucar icy ar ua-

a irac i arssig cags iisi abr b-w ciiias a iiary.

Indian Political Thought and Nuclear Strategyin the 1970s

ursa w Pakisas ucar wasrgra ay a ac Iia cii-iiary rais, i bcsira risi Iia aracs ucar sragy i 1970sa 1980s. Irsigy, Iia cas ras a si xisc xra scuriy ras i 1970s, Iias iica arsi u cig ras ucar was r sragic us. I ac,


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Strategic Studies Quarterly Summer 2009

Ayesha Ray

[14]

ay ki srius ikig abu sragic us ucar waswas issig iica si.

I ara 1962 a 1965 wars, Cia a Pakisa b-

ca iia ras Iia scuriy. I 1964, Cia cucis rs ucar ss. Cia as sabis a w-rg raisi

wi Pakisa a Ui Saswi i ursu a iiary rai-si wi Pakisa, i siuausy gag i iaic caarari

wi Ui Sas. Cia acquisc Isaabas rqus r arsa assis i Pakisas sic ars-rucicaabiiis. I as ri Isaaba wi sra aiaircra gus aarxiay 700 -59 a P-76 aks.1 Wi rgar US icy,

Si-Arica risi bca a ira icy isru rb Rubicas a Dcras i Wasig.2Fr Iia, a US-Cia aiac cai ssibiiis r ucar a

cgica cabrai bw w curis. Arica icyi subci r 1967 a as bc icrasigy syaicwars Pakisa. I srig 1967, Ui Sas rsu sa iiary sar ars Pakisa. I Ocbr 1970, rrs iicaa Pakisa a rci w Arica bbrs a arr rscarrirs.3 Aricas iiary raisi wi Pakisa a Pakisas ii-ary raisi wi Cia cu Iias xra ra ir-. Fr Iia iica ars, Cia aar s a uc grarra Iias xra scuriy, gi is ucar caabiiis a is csiiary raisi wi Pakisa. I is aua rr r 196768, Iia Miisry Ds aicay sa, T Cis agrs b a g-r wi agr r Pakisa cr crai rbs wic i gi i suc a g-r caracr.4T rr as asiz accra ac a wic Cias ucar

was rgra was ig a ui ars abu Pakisas rci iiary suis r Cia a Ui Sas.

cur ra s by Cia a Pakisa, Nw Di bga icras is s xiurs a ur wars Si Uir iiary guaras. T Iia Miisry Dss 196465 a-ua rr iruc a s a wic wu b i ra ri yars. I icu srgig Iias s rucibas rquirs ars a auii a irig

s rcur, srag, a raiig.5

Nw Di as ri a ruci agr wi Sis ak MiG-21s i Iia.6


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Te Eects o Pakistans Nuclear Weapons on Civil-Military Relations in India


Fr 1967 1971, Iia ir 150 Su-7 gr-bbrs, 450 -54a -55 aks, 150 P-76 aibius aks, a six Pya-cass rigasr Si Ui. T Si-Iia s raisi was xacy

y xra scuriy bak a Nw Di was kig r i ac xra ras.

I 1971, Iia w a s aa a sig isric Si-IiaFrisi ray. Tis agr scur iaic a iiary guar-as r Si si a sabis a r uai r Iiasciu iaic a iiary arrsi wi Sis.7 Hw-r, garig rawbacks i Iia s icy urig isi was a, xc r scurig iiary guaras r Si

Ui a icrasig s xiur, Iias iica arsi was ig uc r ir iiary aairs. T srius iiary sragy a irs i cia war-gigs a wi ssib uur ras r Cia a Pakisa

wr cy abs. By ary 1970s, Iias ucar was r-gra, wic a bgu i 1950s ur agis a sa gru sciiss, was akig suci rgrss. Hwr, i wu s bcaar a Iias ucar was rgra a ry i cci

is s icy.Wa is aricuary srikig is a ug Iia a a w-

rc ucar was rgra i ary 1970s a ciiiasisay a ii ucar was, rgra wasig saray r Iia s icy. Varius iica sa-s a ubic sra a Iias iica arsi

was ikig ucar was i sragic rs. Fr isac, 2 Augus 1972 a agai 15 Nbr 1973, ri iisr

ras a sa Iia Paria a ra: T Dar- Aic Ergy a b suyig arius siuais ur

wic acu urgru ucar xsis cu r b cic b; a rgrss i is w cgy was csaybig riw r rica as w as xria ags; aa urgru ss r acu urss wu b urak.8Suc ubic iica sas cary au sragic us ucar cgy. Y, i a surrisig a sck ir-

aia cuiy, Iia w aa a cuc is rs ucarss i 1974.9


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Ayesha Ray

[16]

I is cssary urscr a s ss i cai ay sriusraicais r Iia cii-iiary rais. Rar a ik abu iiary us ucar was, Iias iica arsi aiai

a abiguus arac ucar icy. Tis was uc, asiica argus arig a iiary us r ucar cgy ab a as ary as 1950s. Iias iica arsi a rquyargu i ar ucar cgy a ucar

was. I akig suc cais, y a a a cscius isicibw us ucar technology a us ucar weapons.Fr ciiias, ucar technologywas g, as i was ssia r Iiascic . O r a, ucar weaponswr ba,

as y a ia uas rus sruci. Tis, wr,s a a ciiias wr uawar ia us ucarcgy r sragic urss. Sa siy, y wr jus irsi ig i r sragic us.

I ryig xai wy Iia iica ars ga suc i i-rac sragic us ucar was i 1960s a 1970s,Rajs Basrur argus a rugu isry, Iia sragic cuur ac-cr ii au ucar rrc as a basis r aia scuriy.Mrr, is sragic cuur was csisy icra i is r-sss xra a ira rssurs r subsaia icy cag.10

W i ca ucar was, arac a by ciiias wasa ucar iiais.11 Fr ay Iia scuriy xrs, ik K.Subraaya, ucar was wr was war; y wriica was.12 Iias iica arsi rci a ry iiuiiy ucar was as a surc aia scuriy. Ciiias asxibi a iica rar a cica ursaig ucar wa-s. O a, wi y rcgiz a wr was a ira

rquisi r scuriy, y as csir ucar was ray r-rsib bcaus risks asscia wi ir us.13 Iia sxrs urr suggs a Nw Dis ack sragic ikig ucar

was was ircy i is ixric wi a war. Uik UiSas, Iia a rai raiy isa r xric Firsa Sc Wr Wars. Is ixric wi a wars k s scis Iia sciy isua r qusis aia scuriy a sragy.Mrr, iirc a aay iuc by yars Briis ru jus

susai a ack sragic ug.14

Frr ic-ci Iiaary, Vijay Obri, bsr a iiary was aways iw as a


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rrssi isru Briis icy a Iias iica arsi c-iu ik ag suc is ar ic.15 Trr, cu cai a u a ry ir s isrica xrics,

absc Iia sragic ug scuriy issus ay a b sig s ira ras xaiig wy Iia iica ars wr ikig ucar was i sragic rs urig 1970s.

Piica siacy i accig sragic au ucar was, curs, Iia ucar icy wi cr sa r srucur.I aii, cusi Iias iica ars a sciic sab-is i is ucar was rgra wi sragic urs i i a c xcuig Iia ii-

ary r ucar icy akig. Ciiias a ruiy sar sci-iss iis abu ucar was big ri syb Iiascgica rwssa rsurc wic cu ac is cic - by caig is rgy bas. Hwr, s scis Iia iiary ug rwis. Mr scicay, Iia arrcs aar ucic abu sciiss caabiiy ucar was wiu iiary xris. W 1974 ucar ss

wr cuc wi ai sciiss, iiary aar raraar a sciiss a b ab u is gargaua a

wi Iias iica arsi. Bu criics ay ask: Wy i Iia iiary ak a srgr cas r ir icusi i ucaricy i 1970s?

I xaiig aur Iia cii-iiary rais urig isi, i ay aar arbirary r uair ac a ba Iiasiica arsi r iiarys xcusi r ucar icy. Tisis bcaus, rir 1974 ss, r was ic a arrcs a a a wru cas r sragic us ucar was. I

ac, rugu 1960s a u ui ary 1970s, Iia iiarya rai qui abia abu bs accru r ucar

was. S C i u rass r suc abiacr a iiary i iw, a Iia ucar was rgra i 1970s s isiuiay isrui, as iiary a a wiqusis rgarig cr ucar was, args agais

wic was cu b y a cs ucar wa-s cia war sragy.16 As Iia iiary a ar

a i-cury rgaizaia srucur r gs i,is xric a b ii raiy usisica iiary


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Ayesha Ray

[18]

cgis, a i was cy uaiiar wi us ucarcgy. Hc, si s raizai abu ir au ucar was r sragic urss, iiarys uaiiariy

wi suc r was rcu r xrig ucssaryrssur ciiias ucar caabiiy.17 Tis siuai,wr, was s gig cag. I 1980s, Iias xra scuriycsirais a a sris criss wi Pakisa wu r a ajrsi i iiary aracs ucar sragy.

Indian Military Thought and Nuclear Strategyin the 1980s and 1990s

Fr a 1970s, Iia bsr a surg i Pakisas ucar wasrgra. S Su Asia scars argu a Pakisas ucar wasrgra was ig siuausy wi a Iia ucar rgra.18

As Pakisai scar , Iias suririy i cia wasa is qus r iica r-ic i rgi aar b a au-sib iaig rc r Pakisai icy akrs ursu a bb i.19Mrr, arius Pakisai ars, icuig Zuqar Ai Bu, w sras Pakisas rsi r 1971 1973, isay ccrs abu Iiasucar was rgra back i 1960s. Pakisas war wi Iia i1965, ibrai Bagas i 1971, a 1974 Iia ucarss arus ars wii Pakisai iica circs abu Iia iis ig a ucar was rgra a, i uur, cu b us r Pakisa r aackig Iia. T Bagas war as -sra Iias cia ars suririy, wic urr cuPakisas iscuriy.20 A s, Iias cia suririy is ci as a ira ras r Pakisas bui is w ucar

was rgra.T Pakisas ucar was rgra bga aru

sa i Iia auc is ucar rgra i a 1950s. TPakisa Aic Ergy Cissi was sabis i 1955 ra ucar rgy r cic .21 Fr 1960s,as rais wi Iia bga rira, Pakisas ucar wasrgra urw a siuaus cag. Discussig rass r acag i Isaabas ucar was rgra, Saia A

a 1965 war wi Iia ark a ira urig i iPakisas ucar rgra bcaus by war, cia


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was isariy a quicky si i Iias ar.22 Ar war,Pakisa bga scurig iiary guaras r Cia, wic su-i i wi a arry cia was. Pakisas a i

1971 war wi Iia urr us Isaaba i irci a u-fg was i.23 I 1971, Pakisa bga ra ascr wrk bai cssary arias r ig is uraiuric caabiiis. Prsi Bu r i a agr

wi Nr Kra i Sbr 1971 bai criica was, -wig wic Nr Kra isac a ars si Pakisa.Durig s 1970s, Pakisa acquir ariry, ui-rckaucrs, a auii r Nr Kra.24 As, ur ar-

si Dr. Abu Qar Ka, a Gra-rai aurgis, Paki-sa is rs ucar aciiy a Kaua i 1976.25 Nws abu Pakisas ucar abiis wu s rac Ui Sas.

I ary 1980s, US Sa Dar ubis a rr u-iig w Pakisa was w is way wars ig a ucar

was rgra. Tis rr urr sa a Pakisa a baiucar cgy r Eur a Cia a a Cia a cr-a wi Pakisa i ruci ssi aria.26 I Ari 1981,Sar Aa Cras rr ws a csruci aciiy a Pakisai s si i Baucisa. By a 1980s, Pakisa ubisarius arics criug sig, akig is ucar was caa-biiy ubic.27 Ar 1988 is baisic issi rgra urr xa

wi ai r Cis, a i 1989, Pakisa s is sr-ragucar issi, Ha-I a Ha-II.28

T ssssi ucar caabiiis by Pakisa isi Iiascuriy ccrs. By i-1980s, Iia was cary cic a

Pakisai ucar rgra.29 Sui Gaguy a i ary1980s, car r acquisii ucar was grw as USsurcs ri ic Pakisas qus r ucar was a Cis suy a ucar was sig Pakisa.30 I 1983Iia bga rcss was-gra uiu. Ur arsi Pri Miisr Raji Gai, sciic-iiary sabisi Iia acquir a car ucar was caabiiy. Sra rrs

wri urig is i suggs a Iia a uiu rsurcs su-

ci bui bw 12 a 40 was.31

Wi baig wr k Iias ucar was i , Pri Miisr Gai


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Ayesha Ray

[20]

urscr a siuaus si wars iiary rizai. Buw wii Iias iica sabis raiz w Pakisas ucar rgra was gig ac Iia scuriy i u-

xc ways.By i-1980s, Pakisas ucar was rgra was -

ig a a aarig ac. I 1984 Pakisa a acquir caabiiy rrucig w-ric uraiu.32 Dr. A. Q. Ka riic ir-iws wi rss i wic ubicy ak abu Pakisas -ig ucar rgra. Durig suc iriw i Fbruary 1984, Kacai a Pakisa a aray acquir ucar was caabiiy.33By 1980s, ur Kas arsi, Pakisa Kaua

Labraris acquir as ruc igy ric uraiu.Bu r iray, Pakisa a bgu raig ucar scrs wiIra, Nr Kra, a Libya.34 As Gaura Kaai s, bgiig i 1980s a urig 1990s, Ka a s is asscias b-ga rig a -s s r curis a wis acquir ucarcgis r a was rgra. A s curis a baiburis, cica sig aa, scicais, cs, aciry,ric qui, a s Kas P-1 a x-grai P-2criugs.35 I 1990s, r wr as rqu rrs isis byIraia ucar sciiss Karaci r cica brigs Pakisasucar sigs.

Pakisas casi ucar rais i g uic. Fr ary 1990s, Wasig bga raisig ccrs abu ucar r-irai wi Pakisa. I i-1990s UNSCOM iscrs i Iraqa ucr cuary r a A. Q. Ka a arac Sa-a Hussis rgi assis Iraqi ucar was rgra i ara criug-bas uraiu ric.36 Dsi iraia

ccrs, 7 Fbruary 1992, Pakisai rig iisr, Saryar Ka,i a iriw wi Washington Post, auc a curya caabiiy assb r r ucar was.37Saryar Kas ubic ruc a iraia cu-iy icrasigy wrri abu cs a Pakisai ucar rgra Iia ucar icy. I 1988 New York imesrr a Iiaa bark a abiius ucar rgy rgra a rquir srag s uiu r ia us r ucar was. T

rr urr sa a r 1985 1987, Iia a ruc argquaiis uiu r sicay bui sis. Durig sa yar, a


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ask rc rr ubis by Cargi Ew r IraiaPac ccu a by i-1987 Iia ay a accuua a sck-i 100 200 kigras uiu wic was suci bui

1240 was.38 A s, biggs cag r iraiacuiy i arssig ucar rirai ccrs i Su Asia

was grwig ic ucar was r sragicus i b curis.

T Pakisas ucar caabiiy us ris a back-gru r iscussi a sris bri iiary curs a

wu ccur bw Iia a Pakisa i 1980s. Mr iray, ar i wic Iia iiary rs s criss is ia

i ursaig su irac ucar sragy r Iiacii-iiary rais.By ary 1980s r wr sra iicais a Iias iica

a iiary arsi a bgu csir sragic us ucarwas. Grg Prkic cais a w Pri Miisr Iira Gaica wr i 1980, s k Iias ucar was -i . I 1981 Gai a rais ccrs abu Pakisas abiiy ucar bb. S argu a ssssi ucar

was caabiiy by Pakisa a c Nw Di wig isucar was i r sriusy. I r wrs, Pakisas ucarcaabiiy was ircy usig Iias cisi car is w ucarcaabiiy.39 Mrr, arius Arica iigc rrs ubis i1982 suggs a Iia iiary ars wr urgig Pri MiisrGai raw u a a sry Isaabas aciiis.40 Fr xa,wig iuci Briis-rcur Jaguar aircra i 1980s, Iia air rc a bri suy i wic i wig s-sibiiy aackig Pakisas ucar aciiis a Kaua. T bjci

suy was uraiz ra s by Pakisa rug a ircaack is ucar aciiis.41 Pri Miisr Gai, wr, i sur ay ri war as, wig ars a a Pakisai aack Iia aciiis wu r ry csy r Iia.42 Y, Gai kIias ucar i i ar a Pakisa wu car is ucar

was caabiiy.43By 1984 ssibiiy a ucar crai bw Iia a

Pakisa bca ra w Pakisai rsi, G Muaa Zia-u-Haq,

ir Ui Sas a Iia was ryig ua Isras a-ack u Iraqs Osiraq racrs wi ri ii sryig


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Ayesha Ray

[22]

Pakisas ucar rgra, a agai a Iira Gai yi.44 Ais suc accusais, iabiiy Arica sais ca w Iias Jaguar squars isi ra a u-

car crai bw w arsaris.45 T Ui Saswas aar a b curis wr akig ubic ras abu g-ig ucar. Wi ir si ca u wi ay ccusi icabu is iis aack r, is iiia crisis rc Iiaa Pakisa sk cis r ir ais Si Uia Ui Sas, rsciy.46 Pakisas a Ui Sasa Iia scur guaras r Sis a i cas a ucarcfic, ar wu ir Iias ba. Bu si ars

a ucar war bw Iia a Pakisa, b curis rac a ac-cr i Dcbr 1985 i wic y agr aack ac rsucar aciiis.47

sis bw Iia a Pakisa, wr, ciu ar 1985.A sc crisis ru i 198687, uary kw as Brassackscrisis. Wa bga as a rui iiary xrcis cuc by I-ia ary i 1987 cai ss r a ucar crai wiPakisa. Ur arsi G Krisasway Suarji, I-ia ary auc a xrcis s caizai arrcs.48 T Brassacks xrcis was Gra Suarjis ii. Hscicay wa igra Iias scia was, icuig acicaucar bbs, i ay--ay aurs.49 T xrcis was i rr Rajasa a i 10 iisis Iia ary,icuig w srik crs a arxiay 400,000 rs. Bu arg buiu Iia rs ag Li Cr (LOC) s aar bs i Isaaba. Farig a aack r Iia, Pakisa bga -yig arg ubrs rs ag LOC. Pakisai rs quicky

cs Iia-Pakisa brr ar Pujab i a agrus a-ur a ra cu cuicais bw Kasir a rs Iia.50

Durig ig crisis, iraia cuiy bcagiiay ccr abu ubrak a ucar war bw Iiaa Pakisa ( ug, i isig, suc ars wr xaggra).51

Wi b curis rrai r gagig i a ucar cfic, crisis ra w Iias iiary arsi was ikig abu s-

sib us ucar was. Aiciaig Pakisai ars a ucar a-ack r Iia, crai scis Iia ary a iiary


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baac a si i Iias ar. Mrr, ci ary sa,Gra Suarji, a r sir iiary crs bi a siua-i was ri ak u Pakisa i a rs srik.52 Aug Iias iica

arsi i sar iiarys iws, Suarji a aary as arys sis car Ds iisr Aru Sig.Suarji a as g a s urr by akig Iia air rc icc abu arys as ir rcs Pakisa-ccuiKasir. Accrigy, Iia ary bga ri warcris wiu c kwg ciiias.53 O curs, big ir abu iiarys as, r was iia ir-i r iica si. Raji Gai was aricuary urag a

way i wic Iia iiary a k ciiias uir abuir sragic as r s g.54A ir a a crisis, a ras s agrus, ccurr

i 1990. I 1980s Musis Iia- Kasir bga r-gaizig ss agais cra gr i Nw Di. I1984 Cgrss Pary us a uary c sa gra rigg Kasiri sa cis i 1987, craig urr u-rs ags Kasiri yu.55 wars ar ar 1989,Pakisa cuc a arg iiary xrcis caZarb-i-Momin. Sar, r was a sar icras i isurg-ra aciiis i I-ia sa Kasir. Csquy, Pakisa bga x is su-r isac Kasiri yu by arig a raiig KasiriMusi rrriss.56 Nw Di rs by srgig is iiaryrcs i Kasir a Pujab, wic ca as ar big surris Pakisas iica arsi. Isaaba was aary ucar abuIia iis a ar a a argr ubr rcs y byNw Di wu auc a si rai agais i.57 T c-

fic was r r scaaig ucar rug ircUS iri. Wiia Cark, US abassar Nw Di, aRbr Oaky, US abassar Pakisa, assur ubic a iraia cuiy a iiary b sis a aay arg-sca rarais r war. T Gas Missi, a by uy ircr CIA, Rbr Gas, ark cuiai

Arica rs i rsig sis bw w curis.58T 1990 crisis a ira raicais r Iia cii-iiary

rais. Durig a crisis, Iias iica arsi was ar by Iia iiary ssibiiy a ucar aack r Pakisa.


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Ayesha Ray

[24]

T Iia ary a xrss ccrs abu Pakisai iis x a ucar wa cuica ra a ucar aackagais Iia. cur a ii Pakisai aack, Iia ri

iisr V. P. Sig rr a gru sciic aisrs urakscic rgcy asurs.59 T w rgcy asurs icu arcsirai Iias ucar icy is i Pakisa yis ucar wr r iiary urss.60 wars crisis,V. P. Sig csu is ricia scrary a a siuaibw Iia a Pakisa was scary a a cisis cu b jus bw Pri Miisr a Sciic Aisr. Sig wasaricuary ccr a i a ssib ucar srik r

Pakisa, r was ra rcur ci w wu wa.Trr, i was cssary r ciiias isiuiaiz i.61

Ccr by aar acua i iiary sragy, V. P. Sig -is sur Miisr Sa r Ds Aru Sig, w wasask urak a cassi riw Iias ucar caabiiis a

wrk u arars a ucar ca a cr srucur.Accrigy, Aru Sig s u a ira ci, wic csis brs r Dar Aic Ergy (DAE) a D-

s Rsarc a D Orgaizai (DRDO). Ag wi sciiss, sir cias r Iia iiary a buraucracy

wr ii b ar is ci. A ibra-is, Aru Sig was isay ar a r srics ai kwg abu Iias ucar caabiiy. Fwig ig,i a a ak cisi-akig rcss rasar bciiias a iiary, c: I is car a w a wik a ug arac. W i is cruc i yu jus ca rig

u Ci Sa a say rss bu. T ary wi ak sciiss wr a i wi wrk. Ty wi wa kw i y aa usab crib rr. Orwis y ar iky say buzz . Iis a sigica isaaag i yu a a ca a crsrucur.62 Aru Sigs ccusi iica a ajr ga bw sciic a iiary ursaig Iias ucar icy a absc a ca a cr sys a wi Pakisas -ig ucar caabiiy. T cis ibrais y

sar gig ba abu Iia iiarys r i ucarsragy.


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The Signicance o Military Expertiseon Indian Nuclear Strategy

T Pakisas ucar was rgra a a sris iiary curs bw Iia a Pakisa i 1980s i rgc a rssia Iia iiarya iiary a was sriusyikig abu sragic us ucar was. W car 1970s, is si i Iia iiarys arac ucar wa-s a is ifuc ucar icy was ig sr raaic.T arius criss wi Pakisa a cra giia ccrs i Iiaiica a iiary circs abu ssib us ucar was.T biggs us r ir sragic us a c r a w sir ii-

ary crs i Iia ary w wr sray ryig assr iiarys xris i ucar icy. Tis, i is, was bgiig aua cag i Iia cii-iiary rais.

I is c kwg a as ary as 1981, Iias rr ci ary sa, Gra Suarji, was rs i Iia ary ci w ajr ssays caig r iruci ucar wasi Iia iiary.63 A w yars ar, Suarji xai i a ir-iw a rugu 1980s, ar rcs ri cra cris

a iiary rais a wu b cia a ucarras wi xisig arwar.64 Mrr, ucar cris wr big agsi cia cris.65 T Iia ary a asacquir qui wi ucar, bigica, a cica s caa-biiis wi ryig icrra a cri ia bas a abiiy isrs a ccra quicky.66 Ts w cris biiya caizai, as kw as RAPID cris, wr s i Brassacks xrcis. Fr Iia iiary, crai suc cris

a b a irc rss Pakisai ra. I 1986, iig rbs aaig r Pakisas ucar caabiiy, Suarji wr,

Tr ar ug iicars suggs a Pakisa as aci r is cs aci-

ig ucar was caabiiy. T Iia iiary was garig is rgaizai, rai-ig a qui i suc a ar a is y ci i cia us bu

i uiky ucar was big us by a arsary i cbaz, Iia iiary wu ii aag b sycgica a ysica.67

A s, ur arsi Gra Suarji, s scis

Iia iiary bga ik sriusy abu ia us u-car was.


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Ayesha Ray

[26]

Bsis ary, Iia air rc as k a b iiiai i -ig ucar was. T air rc wa a sragy a wu a cia s agais ucar was a cra a sragic air

ca a cu ciy igra aircra issis wi sragicrcaissac.68 Mrr, i a a war ay ssib r-i aack r Pakisa a cris ia, Iiaair rc isrs is Jaguar, MiG-23, a MiG-27 acica srik air-cra.69 Eic suc raia cags i iiary cris a

wi Pakisas ucar caabiiy surs w Iia ary a airrc wr ikig abu iiary uiiy ucar was. Ta sisica iiary cris a icrra

us ucar was urscr a grar r r Iia iiaryi ucar sragy.Fr i-1980s, Iia iiary cri a a isic

sa arss Pakisas ucar was caabiiy, ig away ra ury cia rr a icrra ucar wa-s.70 E ug Iia ack ay sisica ucar cri urigis i, rsc ucar was was ciiig a ba iIia cii-iiary rais abu cs ucar was c-ia war. T Igra Gui Missi D Prgra car a sris issi syss b r subsqu yars. Eug rgra was ru ur ausics DRDO, Iia sci-iss a bgu i ciiia a iiary rsarc gr.71 Iia as a- a rrc icy wiu acuay ig ucar was. Tw rrc icy icu ccs ik xisia rrc awaiz rrc.72 Exisia rrc a a wi Iiaa caabiiy ucar was, is ucar was rgra

was si ruiary.73 Y, rsc a grwig ucar caabiiy was

suci r Pakisa r ay r y r aackig Iia i rs ac.

Easizig iac ucar was cia war, GraSuarji a wi ars b sis a c iw war as aas aci crai icy bjcis, ay, sa cacuus i ay.74 Wi ray kw wa y assby sys was iac, assui was a Iia a ir assb ucar wasr y ucar was i .75 I is ira r a

us ccs suc as waiz rrc r xisia r-rc wr ira iicars a si i ikig abu ucar was.


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Ts ccs ay aar riii car Arica cris assi raiai a fxib rss, bu y wr sigica i aIia iica ars a iiary wr sruggig a a ar-

ria rrc icy r rs i a, i ig s, wr siua-usy ikig abu sragic us ucar was.

By a 1980s a ary 1990s, ra s by Pakisas ucararsa a agrs a a-u ucar crai wi Pakisaa bc bius as ry i Iia iica a iiarycircs (sciay sic b curis a aray sar a sris criss).Irsigy, Iias iica arsi was bgiig ay caru a-i wa iiary was sayig wi rgar curys ucar

is. A a siar rgaiz by Ui Sric Isiu (USI) 10 Marc 1990, srig a rir Iia cias r a r srics,ias, a acaics ba wr Iia su xrcis is u-car i. T ibrais is ig ra a s sircrs wr i ar buiig a srg ucar arsa. Fr isac, ci aa sa, Aira Nakari, argu a a ucia ucaricy wu s Pakisas ucar was caabiiy. Nakariurr a a ucar arsa wu b car aiai a

cia rcs.76

Urscrig ccrs abu Pakisas grwigucar was caabiiy, ar sir iiary cia, G V. N.Sara, rark a Iia wu a i bu ssss ucarcaabiiy i a ia si igbrig ai acquir a caabiiy y ucar was.77 Or iiary crs as ar Iiaicy akrs agrs iscuicai a iscacuaibw w curis i a ig ucar ir. Fr i-sac, L G M. Tas sai a rscs iscacuai i

abiguus cia bw Iia a Pakisa wr biggs ccrr iiary ig ca i Iia.78 VADM K. K. Nayar, rric-ci aa sa, as i u a Pakisas aissi a-ig a caabiiy assb a ucar ic su rc Iia a araisic assss scuriy ir i rgi.79 Suc sa-s a by a r srics Iia iiary ri urric a us r iiary cris a icu ias abu sragic us ucar was. Bu wi ciiias wr y w bgiig

ay ai wa iiary was sayig, iiary a arayak a i ig Iias ucar sragy.


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[28]

I is cssary rbr a rs Iia iiary ifuc ucar sragy wr rgig i rss a sragic acuuri by absc ciiia ikig sragic issus. Ciiias

i Iia a sw ay rssia irs i ir sragy racics iiary rais a gra waksss Iia sys was a ciiias a a caru ur-saig iiary ars.80 A Iia bsrr cai a Iiaiica ars a s ucar was as a way acig ir wsic saig a wr aways ruca ak abu ir us i iiaryrs.81 Siiary, r a b srius r isiuiaizucar was by icrraig i ar rcs rug

cri a iiary rgaizai.82

Suc sasa rquy aar i caris a by Iia sragy as xrs. A s sas, uuby, i absc srius iica ikig iiary uiiy ucar was. Frcas, Iias iica arsi a b sig abiguus sigas ir wr abu wa ucar was a r Iia scuriyicy. Ty as k iiary ar r r ucar icy u ars a iiary wu bc uc wru i iruc ucar was.83 Bu r Iia iiary, absc sragicikig by Iias iica arsi suc ia aia scuriy is-sus iica a ack ci srius iiary cris.Mrr, abiguiy i ciiia aracs ucar was, curs, a Iia iiary isca, as y wr gig

wa y wa.84T Iia iiarys r i ikig abu ucar was i

1980s a ary 1990s was a a i cra by a ab-sc iica ikig ucar sragy i 1970s. T

is i a b u by aur ucar cgy, wiciruc qusis abu iiarys xris i usig s wa-s. Sau Huig a iiary as a scic ai cc, wic isiguiss i r ciiia ucis. Tis ara iiary cc is ca aag ic a is sa-ra r ac ic is.85 T isici bw iiarysr i aag ic a iiarys ac ic iscriica i arssig wy ay rssia iiary ig wa assr

is xris i ucar icy. T Iia iiarys us r a ucarsragy ars bcaus is issaisaci wi a ciiia icy a r-


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quy us ar rcs as a isru ic wiu giigi ay wr i aag ic.

Huig argu a iiary ca b us as a iica

aic bu i is a iss bcaus rssia iiary crsssss xris i jugig caabiiis iiary isru wr.86 T aur ucar cgy a iiary ucisasscia wi is us a iruc Iias iica arsi irac rssia iiary xris i us suc was.Mr iray, as ciiias a ug ry i abu iiaryus ucar cgy i 1970s, rb iaig iicaa iiary ucis i ucar icy a rg as a srius issu i

Iia cii-iiary rais i 1980s. As Brig Gur Kawa s, biggs cag cii-iiary rais was a Iia rs wucar a bga wrry abu igs ik cri a sragy.87

T iruci w was rquir w s r a-ag ic. Mrr, as Huig urscr, wi iiary a is csrai i sragy, is ici b -ia rgrssi wi rsc w was.88 T Iia iiary a,r scicay, Gra Suarji a r sir crs, a caryisay ic suc ikig urig a ar bri iiarycurs wi Pakisa. S bsrrs bi a Suarji a us Brassacks xrcis jug iiarys rssia cc

wi w was.89 Ors cai a Suarji ri assr is x-ris y bcaus was bsss wi Isaabas ucar wascaabiiy a csay wrri abu Pakisas us ucar wasi a aack Iia.90 By a 1980s, i a bc qui car a sr cfic-ik siuais wi Pakisa a brug Iias iicaarsi ac--ac wi rssia jugs a iiary a

was ccr abu aag cfics i saw ucarwas.91

Fr Iia iiary, iica iscussis ca a c-r ucar was wr a sigica i is. aiIias iica arsi i iscussig ucar ca a crissus, sir Iia iiary crs ik Gra Suarji ciu asiz rbs wi aig a su ucar sragy. sisica ca a cr srucurs, Suarji rs

crai a ucar cri. H bsr a ack a ucarcri i Iia a Pakisa was a agrus ig. I yu k i


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Ayesha Ray

[30]

ur wras, yu kw wa wi . By 1990scrisis, Suarji a as bgu arguig r crai ra iiarycris wic cu cr r ssibiiis iscacuai i a war

wi Pakisa. ruc icic iscacuai, suggs ai a car ucar was sur.92

Piica a iiary sas arssig ucar ca a c-r rais wr iicai a rgig agr i Iia cii-iiary rais sragic us ucar was. W V.P. Sig gr was rac by a w Baraiya Jaaa Pary (BJP)gr, Iias iica arsi bga ayig grar ii-ca ai iiary ius ucar sragy. Tr is ic

sw a BJP gr sur uc wa Iia ii-ary was ig ciiias. Fr isac, a Iia scrary BJP, J.P. Maur, ccurr wi Gra Suarjis sii ucar wa-s a bi a Iia su g i r ucar was by aiacssus wiu wasig r i.93 As, i is ci ais, BJP rs ar r srics wi ucar was.94 TBJPs arai iiary iws was a ajr s i ui Iia iica aius wars iiarys r i ucar icy.

Ecurag by a cag i ciiia aius wars iiarys ri ucar sragy, Iia ar rcs bga xa ir i-fuc ucar icy. I a rar sigica , rsrics s u ir rgras icrra ucar was iiiary sragy. By ary 1990s, Iia ay a bgu -ig a ucar subari rjc cy kw as Aaccgy Vss (AV) rjc. VADM Prir S. Das bsrs a Iia ays rs bui ucar subaris wr cs-sary c wi ras r Pakisa, wic was raiy rizig

is ay.95 A ucar subari rjc was as cssary arssr burgig aa wrs i Iia Oca.96 By ary 1997Iias ci aa sa, ADM Visu Bagwa, rr a cicaaui AV rjc. Ur Bagwas arsi, r rg aci car crs w wr ica sigig a bui-ig ucar a is subaris.97 Rrs Iia ays ucarsubari rjc bga aarig i arius ca wsars. By a1997, Pioneerrr a Iias ucar subari rjc was

rg a criica brakrug, wi Pry sig Cr(PC) a Kaakka gig ray r rias.98 T PC, ca wii


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Iira Gai Cr r Aic Rsarc, was s subaris urbis a rrs. Or rrs suggs ra-i siiar sig aciiis a Visakaaa.99

Wi Iia ay aig ak a i ig a ucarsubari rjc, ary a air rc s u rssur ciiias a r sisica ucar arsa. I wa ay a b c-sir a ua i isry Iia cii-iiary rais,Pri Miisr Narasia Ra ri Cis Sa args b assig arys Prii-1 (150-k rag/1,000-kg aya) ba-isic issis.100 Tis was xry sigica r Iiacii-iiary rais, as ciiias wr akig scic asurs assig

iiary a arria r i ucar aairs. Ais suc isacs cii-iiary cabrai ucar icy, Nw Di ci cuc a sc s ucar ss i 1998. Bu si gig iicaba abu iiarys r i ucar aairs r ary 1990s, cisi cuc ucar ss i 1998 was a by ciiias asciiss a xcusi Iia iiary! Fwig a isricaraii kig iiary subsri ciiia cr, Iiaiica ars aar sia sk iiarys aic ci-

si s ucar was. Hwr, Iias car ucar wassaus a i r icu r ciiias xcu iiary ruur cisis ucar sragy.

O ajr cags r ciiias i iia s-1998ucar ir was ikig abu acai iiary rs-sibiiis i ucar cisis. A grwig ba was rgig i iica,iiary, a acaic circs abu cs Iias car ucar

was saus iiary. Ms scars agr a a car u-

car was sur wu ak i cssary icu iiary iuur ucar cisis. A sir cia r Iia ay aIias r ucarizai wu brig ciiias a iiary csr,as iiary a xrss a sir r aqua rarai i i assib ucar war wi Pakisa.101 Frr Iia abassar Ui Nais, Aruai Gs, as rcas a s 1998, ciiiasa brug iiary uc csr i cisi-akig rcss.102Bu bas ccrig Iia iiarys r i ucar icy bca

r isib ar Pakisa as cuc ucar ss i 1998 aauc a iiary aack Iia i sur 1999.


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[32]

Political Recommendations in Favoro Military Proessionalism

T Iia ucar ss 1998 wr iiay w by Paki-sai ucar ss. A yar ar b curis bca r ucar sas,Pakisa aack Iia i wa bca kw as Kargi war s Iia iiarys cia srg. Pakisas car ucar

was caabiiy, a sr urai wii wic i ri sIias ucar rs, a ra a ucar crai b-w curis ry ra. Wi b curis ai a ucarcrai, Kargi war wiss crai srarsas a sur a xasi i Iia iiarys war-gig

s. A w s rsas as arss Iia iiarysgrwig irac i ucar icy.

T Kargi war wasPakisas a ag is iiary rrsssur urig 1971 war a Siac isu wi Iia. Traia aig r Kargi war a bgu s ar G PrzMusarra k r as ci ary sa i Ocbr 1998.103 Isaabaus war aci r uaa ais. Firs, war riPakisa wi a ruiy iraiaiz Kasir issu.104

Sc, Kargi was Pakisas a us irars acrss Iiabrrs k crss-brr rrris ai. As Pakisas xris acii-is a b war by Iia ary i as, Isaaba wa rrs a r. Fiay, Pakisa iiia cfic s Iiaiiary caabiiy i wak 1998 ucar ss.105 By auciga surris aack Iia, Pakisai iica ars bi a i Iia iiary cu us back Pakisai rcs si acig a surris, Iia cu a Pakisa aywr.106

T war, c-a Orai Vijay, was ark by r ass. T

iiia as bga i ary May 1999, urig wic Iia sirs su-r ay casuais a s Iia iiary rais ai ui iruci airwr. O rciig riab irai ca-i irurs ag Drass-Baaik-Kaksar igs, air rc wasca i auc air sriks Pakisai siis. Durig scas war, Iia ary csia is siis, car Drass igs, a auc a sysaic caaig ic iru-rs. Fwig Iia arys caur ig ak 13 Ju

1999, ar rcs a aaagus sii is--is Pakisa.T ir a a as war was caracriz by sigica iiary


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icris Iia si. T Iia ary caur ia siis,suc as igr His, a succssuy ic irurs r Muskk,Kaksar, a uruk scrs i Jau a Kasir. I a sags

war, Pakisas isaur was sa by sy Arica ir-i. I May 1999 US scrary sa Mai Abrig a Briisrig scrary Rbi Ck wi Iias xra aairs iisr,

Jaswa Sig. T UN scrary gra, K Aa, as iscus-sis wi Iia a Pakisai ys. T scari bga irsaiy ais rqu iaic aciiy. Hsiiis cas by ary Juy

w Prs. Bi Ci s Iia a Pakisai ri iisrs acia r urgig rsc Li Cr i Kasir.

As Kargi war was ug i saw ucar was, Iiaiica ars xrcis a gra a caui i rig warr scaaig ucar . Durig curs war, cii-ias a a sragic a iica cisis, wi Iia arya air rc jy sigica auy i acica rais.107 Mriray, Iia iica ars wrk gr wi iiaryi gig. G V. P. Maik bsr a ar Cabi Ci Scuriy 25 May, r cis wr csy s i iica-iiary cisi-akig rcss. T cisi-akig r-css was a irc a ar iscussis, ccr xcu-i auriis, icuig r cis, rci ircis r ri iisr a aia scuriy aisr, Brajs Misra.108 Ia cag ucar ir, r rg a igra arac war aag wi iica, cic, ia, a iiaryascs s gr cgy.109 T rsc ucar wasa as a iiary ss basu i aisig iica ars abu csqucs usig airwr agais Pakisa. Fr isac, a a

ubic rss crc i Sriagar, w Air Ci Marsa A. Y. iiswas ask abu uiiy a air si, sa a csqucs rsric us airwr a b a car gr.Suc isacs cii-iiary cabrai iiary sragy wrc urig Kargi war.

T Kargi war rais uaa qusis abu Iias rarss i a ucar ir. I iia swarri, a ci was s u aua succsss a aiurs

war. Tir rr is uary kw as Kargil Review CommitteeReport(as ca Subhrahmanyam Report, ar is riary arcic,


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Ayesha Ray

[34]

K. Subraaya).110 I xaiig sss Kargi war, ci igig criica ass i Iias iigc sys asrucura rbs i is igr s rgaizai. Bu r ir-

ay, Kargi rr a srius rcais surig Iia iiarys rssia r i ucar icy.

Prir igigig a r, ci suggs a srius r-rgaizai Iias igr s sys aw r grar iiaryi. T s u a aia s aquarrs a a -s iigc agcy a cra s aia scuriy aisr

was srgy asiz. T ci urr suggs a brs Naia Scuriy Cuci, sir buraucracy sricig i a

Sric Cis a b ciuay ssiiz iigc r-aiig aia, rgia a iraia issus. Prsas uiigcags i Iias isiuia srucur cii-iiary wr a gra grar syrgy bw ciiia a iiary bracs a as ri iiary wi a arg rag is i gra sragy. Trr as urscr rbs i criaig ir iigcrais wii Iia. T ci bsr a rs sruc-ur a rcsss i iigc garig a rrig a ara backgru a ucr irai a iaquayassss iigc.111 Tr was a absc a isiuiaiz r-css wic cu aw ir iigc agcis, suc as Rsarca Aaysis Wig (RAW), Iigc Burau (IB), a Brr ScuriyFrcs (BSF), irac riicay bw Ji Ii-gc Ci (JIC). Wi JIC was ig is jb as ci cus-ia iigc, subsiiary rgaizais ik RAW a IB wr ig as rug a jb. A sar iscc bw arius ii-gc agcis a auy iigc rrs urig Kargi war.

Fr isac, as ary as 1998, RAW a c rsc aiia Pakisai ui i Guari bu a ai w u arug aria rcaissac figs. Mrr, as Iia iiary a sar sys r xcagig iigc irai wi agcissuc as JIC a RAW, ar rcs cu ry i rrPakisas iiia icursis.112 As a rsu s rbs, a iiaugra i Iias iigc srics was csir crucia.

Wi rgar Iia iiarys rssia r i ucar sragy,

Kargil Reporta a criica rcai. I suggs a iiary a b a as w ir as is Pakisai curar


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ucar icy. Ci brs a urig Kargi war,Pakisai iica ars a b ikig ry cary abu r ucar was. T cariy i Pakisai iica ug abu

r ucar was was a rsu sragic cisis big akjiy by b ciiias a iiary. I Iia iiarys xcusir ucar icy r sra cas a i a a r isaa-ag sii. Sir Iia iiary crs a ar ci craicry aracs ak by ciiias ucar icy. Air CiMarsa Mra a bsr a ug fig rias r iry Iia ucar was wr cuc i 1990 a sra iicaars r V. P. Sig Raji Gai a susai a ucar wa-

s rgra, s Iia ri iisrs a ri k rgracia.113 Agai, wi ciiias a ruiy rassur Iiaubic a curys ucar was i wu rai iPakisa ucar was, y a sai ry i abu waa ucia ucar was rgra wu ai. I sar cras iica icisiss isay by Iia ars, sra Pakisaiiica a iiary ars, suc as Bazir Bu, Nawaz Sari, aci ary sa G Asa Bg, a y sar irai wi ubic abu Pakisas ucar was caabiiy.

Higigig rbs i xcuig iiary r ucaricy, Kargil Reportas a ucar sur a bysuccssi ri iisrs a u Iia ary a a isaaag is--is is Pakisai curar. Wi rr was i ark abuIias ucar caabiiy, ar as cusia Pakisai ucar

wary was uy awar is w caabiiy. Tr rr cis ary sa a xrss uaiss abu is asyric siuai.Mrr, ack a iagu bw ciiias a iiary

ucar sragy a ia arig Iia iiarys siii aag ucar was i uur. A Kargi war, isurb by iica gc is r i aag ucar was, Iia iiary a xrss is issaisacir big icu i ucar cisi-akig . A s, aciia grar rasarcy i cii-iiary rais ucarsragy, Kargil Reportsuggs ubicai a wi ar Iias ucar was rgra.114

Bsis rcig igrai Iia ar rcs iucar cisis, Kargi Ci cai rsas r ac-


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Ayesha Ray

[36]

ig iiarys rssia r i curisurgcy rais. M-brs ci ar gr ir cs usig iiary as a ic rc i suc rais. I is rca-

is, ci a ay i Iia aryi curisurgcy rais a ac is iiary rarss iig cury agais xra aggrssi. T ci urr a suc a siuai a aris bcaus succssi grsa a g-r sragy a wi isurgcy. M-brs ci ar a iiarys rg y icurisurgcy rais wu y i is raiig rgrai uur bu cu as a a iiary i-s a rac r

is riary uci gig wars. T Miisry H Aairs, sagrs, a araiiary rcs a as rquy assu a iiary wu aways b aaiab cba isurgcy.115 I aii,aw rc agcis suc as Iia Paraiiary a CraPic Frcs a b aquay rai a wi curisur-gcy rais. Tis a icras c iiary arasr i i a riary ic rc.116 T Kargil Reportsug-gs a srg iiarys rssia r, ciiias wu us iiary i gig cia wars y.

T Kargi Cis rcais uiig a rssia rr Iia iiary i uur wars wi Pakisa wr a ira i Iia cii-iiary rais. Bu jus as Iias iicaarsi bga w rug wi cis rcais,Pakisai rrriss auc a sc aack Iia i 200102, ra-ig ubrak y ar ucar crisis i subci.

The Militarys Critique o Political Objectivesin a Confict with Pakistan

O 13 Dcbr 2001, six iiiuas aia wi a Pakisai ii-a rgaizai, Lashkar-e- aiba, aack Iia Paria. Tsuig ba bw assaias a Iia scuriy rcs cai is a six aackrs a ig brs Iia scuriy rcs. r Pakisa r wagig uur aacks a siiar ki, Iiaiiary urk a arg-sca biizai is rs ag LOC.

T Iia iiary rss Pakisas braz aack is uary kwas Orai Parakra.117 I rss buiu Iia iiary


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rcs ag LOC, Pakisa auc wr a is iu-rag ucar issis wr ig ar. As siuai cai ssibiiy a ucar crisis bw Iia a Pakisa, Arica cias

ir aia Iia ars a Pakisai ucar srik. Bu siArica iri, Nw Di aiai a y sa rai-ss ag is brrs, caiig a Pakisa a i raicaiiacy i subci. T Iia iiary as rai rsui is sragy agais Pakisa. Ci ary sa, Gra Paaaba, a ay cury a was a ug iiia a ucar srikagais Iia wu b uis sry.118 Dsi Pakisai rsiG Prz Musarras assuracs iiacy, Nw Di ai-

ai a sur rc a w x sig a issicaab irig a ucar wara.119 O 14 May 2002, Pakisaauc a sc s aacks a Iia ary bas i Kauck,

Jau a Kasir. Tis aack ki r 30 ic ciiias. ak ars wrs, a ri Kasiri sarais ar, Abu GaiL, was assassia. By May 2002, war aar ii,a Iia r ys wr srg ag brr. TUi Sas xr iaic rssur b Iia a Pakisa siiis. By Ju 2002, r was a ruci i siiis, a byOcbr 2002, crisis was ay r.

Iias iiary cur wi Pakisa i 200102 a sigicaraicais r cii-iiary rais. T crisis gra rbus ii-ary rsss r Iia ary. Mr iray, urig crisis, Iia iiary a bc isai wi iica bjcis.T Iia ar rcs bi a r was a c isacbw sragic a acica gas. T iiary uri r basicrbs wi iica cisis urig crisis. Firs, y isagr

wi ciiias r aig a si iiary sur agais Pakisa.Sc, Nw Dis ii sac war bjcis a sigicayuri Iia iiary rais.120 A, ir, y wr uay

wi ciiias r baig Iia ar rcs r a sw rss igig iias.

Dig iiarys sii, ci ary sa, Gra Paaaba a Iia iiarys sw rss urig crisis was a i-rc rsu ciiia icisiss rar a iiary urarss.

Rrig r ciiia ircis urig crisis, Paaaba ar-gu a sigica iiary gais cu a b aci i Jauary


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Ayesha Ray

[38]

2002 a iicias a cisi g war. Ts bjcis, says, cu a icu graai r rc, a ras caur isu rriry i Jau a Kasir. Ty wr r

aciab i Jauary, ss aciab i Fbruary, a ss aciabi Marc. By , baac rcs a grauay cag. As, wPakisa auc is aack Iia Paria, Iia aryssrik rais wr i garris a ry i cu a b biiz arg iiary rcs acrss LOC. Gra Paaabaargu a iica sragis agais Pakisa wr auy, as y ii sriks ciiias wr usig r wu a b ayui. Arssig iiarys siacy i ayig ii war b-

jcis, Paaaba sa a i yu ray wa uis sr sig ry rrib as , yu sas i. Yu sryis was a caur is rriry. War is a srius busiss a yu g i jus ik a.121

Gra Paaabas criicis ciiia sragy urig crisisa siiar sis xrss by srig a rir crs suggsa biggs cag r Iia iiary was a Iias iicaarsi a car a w rs a rrris aack rPakisa. Ciiias i cary ursa rag iiary isaaiab r ir ia csqucs. O iiary si, crisisigig r a iiary cri, wic cu g by jusgig a ii war. Pakisas braz a uricab aack Iiaa r a a s-ri arac wars y wub a ici iiary sragy i g ru. T Iia iiary

was as ccr abu ua cs war. Piica ircis arsu i a arg ubr iiary as. T Iia ary a sr i Orai Parakra a i Kargi cfic. Durig

Orai Vijay (c a r Kargi war), 527 sirs s iris. Durig Orai Parakra, r a 680 wr ki.122 Or100 sirs i wi ayig ary a ii is ar brr, aas ay as 110 sirs i i ra accis. Dsi suc aarigsaisics, Iia gr was uwiig cc x casuais. I ac, gr a rjc iiary rai asbss, ug casuay gurs suggs a cfic a aua cs.123

Paaabas criiciss iica bjcis urig 200102crisis wr a way assrig iiarys xris i aig a r


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suiab iiary sragy agais Pakisa. T sigicac iiary x-ris ca b urs by kig a rc s i Arica cii-iiary rais i war Iraq. Ui rcy, srig crs i

US iiary a b cauius i criicizig Bus aiisraisiiary icis i Iraq. Bu as siuai wrs, wi uigcasuais Arica si, srig a rir gras bga iscuss

war bjcis r y. O 12 Ocbr 2006, ia rr a rr car i Iraq, rir gra Ricar Sacz, criiciz Bus aiisrais Iraq icy, caig i a igar.124 T USiiarys criicis iica bjcis i Iraq war urr isiar Gra Praus siy Sa Ar Srics Ci-

i 2007. I is siy, Praus scrib s ajr rb-s acig US iiary i Iraq a xrss isai i ack rgrss war iica rcciiai r. I a r arss is rs, Praus asiz a aug ic as iiis,i as wrk u as w a .125

A caru raig iiary rsss iica bjcis i Iiaa Ui Sas suggss a biggs ccr r ay rs-sia iiary is arria s a ca ac iiarybjcis iica cisis. Ciiia icis a rfc ii-ary bjcis aquay cris iiarys rssiaxris. Uss ciiias ca ways ac iiary bjcis wisragic icy, iiary wi ciu rai criica ciiiaicis. A, i a r iruc arab ciiia aracs iiary sragy, iiary uss a crisis r war criiciz iica ci-sis ubicy. By ig is, i ris rasr ciiia icy wiury cagig ciiia rrs. T 200102 Iia-Pakisa crisis r-a Iia iiary iciss ursuig ii-war

bjcis agais Pakisa. I ikig abu iiary rsss awi a ucar Pakisa, Iia ar rcs bga akig a aigr i ruaig w sragic cris, wic wu riig a -si iiary sragy agais Pakisa i uur criss.

The Indian Militarys Role in the Developmento Strategic Doctrines

T Iia iiarys us r w sragic cris as b ur-s i ig crai s i Iia cii-iiary rais. O


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Ayesha Ray

[40]

24 Jauary 2000, i a iaugura arss Sc IraiaCrc Asia Scuriy i 21s Cury, Iia s i-isr Grg Fras iruc Lii War Dcri. Fras

car a Kargi war was r Iias abiiy g a wi aii war a a i a ac cs by aggrssr.126 Wi ais a ii-war cri rai ucar, Fras sasa gra urr ikig i sragic a iiary circs abu iac ucar was cia wars. Qusis abu ar i wic Iia iiary cris a b air a wiw-isiy cfics a Iia iiarys r i suc raisaai a ira ac i Iia sragic bas. As Swara Sig

s, crai a ii-war cri rquir sisica rcsrucurs a cu arss ir gau cigcis, ragigr a cr ucar war aiaiig cii s awarss isusc arg cais. A a wi arius ys aggrssiucar, cia, iiary, a subcia Iia ary

wu a br war-gig ciqus.127

A Kargi war, Iias iica arsi ruc ara ucar cri, wic iscuss ajr aurs is ucar

caabiiis.128

T cri was ry ai bu i cai sssia aurs. I ura a icy iiu ucar rrca -rs-us. T ucar ca a cr sys wu csis a ix a-bas, arii, a air caabiiis. Aiia gui-is ubis i 2003 iica a ucar was cu b us r r raia agais us bigica r cica was.129

Wi cri sabis a rawrk r Iia ucar icy, sscars s agr a i was rar iiais. I r wrs, sc-

is cri wr abiguus, a r was ai aaysis w ciiias a iiary wu wrk gr ucar ci-sis. E ug ucar cri ack xici rrcs abu r iiary i uur ucar rais, ciiia as s u a ca a cr sys ark a crucia s rwar i iiarys icusi i ucar sragy. Discussig irac Iia iiary i ucar rais, Aruai Gs rark a ii iiu crib rr, ciiias wu

iiary c i icur. As, iiary wu isis issis big s br y wr wiig absrb suc was


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i ir arsa. Hc, ra cag i cii-iiary rais was ucar si.130

Fr iiary, ubicai a Iia ucar cri a

s srius ikig abu rrc sragis agais Pakisa. Ir-sigy, Iia-Pakisa cfics 1999 a 2002 a cr a rsc ucar was was akig i arr aci iicaa iiary sabiiy i subci. T Kargi war a sra aiur rrc a w-isiy cfics bcaus rsc ucar was a curag cfic bw ucar a cia crai.131 Wi xisc ucar

was a r a war, sabiiy a b uri by

ssibiiy subcia cfics r rxy wars.132

S Iiaxrs as argu a s-waizai iiary sabiiy a b assur i Su Asia, bcaus rsc ucar was acra ssib scaris r iscacuai a isrci yrsss.133 A s, Iias car ucar was saus a craciis r grar cii-iiary cabrai i kig uur ii-ary rais a w-isiy .134 W ask abu c ucar was Iia cii-iiary rais, G V. R. Ragaa a Iias -rs-us cri wu r ciiias r usigs was i cfics wi Pakisa bu is s a a iiary a ug sriusy ug abu gig wi ucar

was.135 Ragaas sa suggss a i ara Iiasr ucarizai a subsqu cfics wi Pakisa, irac srucur ikig i cucig uur wars wi Pakisa a bcxry criica. A r iray, Iia iiary was rgigas a ira ayr i ucar sragy.

T ur cury wiss Iia iiarys grwig ifuc

craig sisica cris i a war wi Pakisa. T 200102curs wi Pakisa a ar rcs xry skica ii-war bjcis. T crisis wiss Iia iiarysrs i ig cris wic wu b a r arria agaisa ucar Pakisa. Accrigy, 28 Ari 2004, Iia ary ciayiruc C Sar Dcri. Tis w cri ca r a raiy igra ba grus cuc ig-isiy sirais.136 T cri was braici sir iiary crs,

suc as Gra Paaaba, w wa Iia iiary a abizkrig-ik sragy i uur rais a icu a r srics.


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Ayesha Ray

[42]

Wi ais is cri rai cassi, suc cris a bus i NAO rais a icu igra grus i siiiary rais a igs s.137 As ar is w sragy,

Iia iiary wu a urak si iiary raisa ry us siiis, sr a ucar war. T bjci suc a sragy was r Pakisa r ay r si Su Asiasa r cuig iri by ir xra ais. Ba grusa arius s wu b ask ri i rs aryig csii arr a iary s wi igra aack icrs

Ary Aiai a Air Frc aig cs sur r gru-aackAir Frc squars.138 Ba grus cu b us iiiuay r i-

i rais r i cjuci wi rais a argr sca.T C Sar Dcri was craiy ir r rius Iiaiiary cris, as a cisi iiary icry was gr as y ga ay war agais Pakisa. T urs is cri was icras rag is aaiab Iia r gig a wiiga war agais Pakisa by ig away r a a-r-ig sragy.139T Iia iiarys rrc r a si sur as ii aiiary iri r ri sriks wu w b csir gii-a is i Su Asia.140 ri ciss is wsragy, Iia ary s C Sar Dcri i arius ii-ary xrciss. I ary May 2005, Iia ary cuc a xrcisca Vajra Saki. Tis xrcis i us a iary iisia a i caiz briga II Crs, ag wi assci-a arr s igra crs, iiia si sriksa ubrak uur siiis. A yar ar cucig is iiaryxrcis, Iia ary rs is C Sar Dcri i sur 2006. T sc iiary xrcis, c-a Sag-Saki, y

s asibiiy w cri bu as iiarys caaciy rs a ucar, bigica, r cica aack. wy usars gr wi Iia air rc ccu wk-g xrcisarxiay 100 kirs r Iia brr. A xrcis, L G Daua Skawa, car i II Crs ( r ky srik rais Iia ary), rr a r

was r r a swi srik i cas a ucar aack r Pakisa aa xrcis a aia w iiary cri.141 Sir ii-

ary cias, icuig ci ary sa G J. J. Sig, wr jubiaa igrai wic a b aci bw gru rs a


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air rc rug cuc is xrcis. Exrcis Sag-Sakiaar a aci is bjci akig a r srics wrkgr i u a cri a rquir a quick rss

agais y.Irsigy, iac w sragic cris Iia cii-

iiary rais as b argy igr i Iia iraur sub-jc. Fw Iia bsrrs a ai ai iicai sucw cris r cii-iiary rais. Wi s scars a is-cuss sigicac C Sar Dcri i rs Iia rsss a Pakisai aack Iia, r bsrrs a cus r-is usig a s-ri crs (br kw as Pi Crs)

auc si rais i y rrirya ciqu wic,y argu, ca b succssuy y by r srik rais.142Y, as ri cariy wa a si iiary sragy wua r Iia cii-iiary rais.

T crai C Sar Dcri uuby carris sigicaiicais r Iia cii-iiary rais. Firs, a iiary cri

wic gis riacy a si sragy rfcs iiarys sir isasscia is r si iiary sragis us i as.Scars argu a r sra cas, Iia iiary a subscrib a si war sragy a bs iica ircis. Iias iicaarsi a aways isay a ack iica wi i ig iiarywr i accrac wi curys aia scuriy irss.143 By -ig w cris, iiary was y ryig brak away raiqua iiary sragis bu was as isayig sriusss i ak-ig ci ss agais ay uur aacks r Pakisa. Uriig irac iiarys r i ig suc w cris, I-ia ucar xr a br NSAB, Bara Kara, s a

i is y w a iiary is gig i ucar ars. Tis isa xciig i i Iia cii-iiary rais as iiary is ryig a r r is. . . . Fr 1990s, Iia ary a akabu sac r cia war i a ucar ir. A i iiary was gig sar a cia war, C Sar Dcri

was a way ig gr sar ikig bra.144 I-, iiarys a w cris was a way assr-ig ir rssia jug a xris i sragic aairs.

A sc iicai us r w sragic cris is sir a car sarai i cii-iiary rssibiiis a crgc


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Ayesha Ray

[44]

i cii-iiary ucis. Cars Msks a a crgc icii-iiary ucis is irc csquc cags iucby sisica was syss. T Arica xric wi ucar

cgy iicas a rsc ucar was ga ris jus a r cica rcicy bu as r rai i r aaagria skis.145 As Ui Sas a sisica ucar

was arsa, iiary bga ayig a ajr r i aag- suc was. Mrr, ssib us ucar wasi a war wi Si Ui iruc uaa cags i aur US warar. Varius sragic cris bga b bui arurrc ry. Wi ucar caabiiy was brck rrc

sragis, b ci, Arica iiary a xibi a caabiiya cribiiy i ursuig icis r a ucar war. T ak ra a ucar war crib csquy iruc a c-x yaic i US cii-iiary rais as Arica iica arsa wrk gr wi iiary i u iica bjc-is.146 Mr iray, bsis gig a ucar war, a ci -rrc sragy as rquir US iiary b rai i a ariy ucar cfics a a urr cii-iiary cabrai.

Tus, i Ui Sas, rsc ucar was ruc acrgc i cii-iiary ucis a rais srius qusis abu burrig i iisi abr bw cii-iiary ais.

I Iia cas, iiary curs wi Pakisa r 1980sa aways cai a ssibiiy r scaai ucar . By a 1990s, w iiary cris wic cu icu sragicus ucar was i a war wi Pakisa a bc xrycriica. Bu, iruci w sragic cris as rquir a

r caru riw cii-iiary bjcis. Osi iiary c-ris a a srucur a sy iica cisi-akig rcss

wi sisica crisis-aag rcurs s a iiary ra-is rai ursric a surris, ia suc c-ris, is s.147 Accrigy, i ay uur war r crisis, Iiaarys si rais wu rquir rguar a ursric cii-iiary cabrai cci, cai, a assss yirai. Tis, curs, wi igra iiary r y i

iica cisi-akig rcss. Isa wrkig saray, iiary ca ciiias xcu a succssu si sragy.


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As Arica cas sras, ssibiiy r a crgc icii-iiary ucis sigicay uris iisi abr b-w ciiias a iiary. T succss Iia iiary i

w cris i uur wi Iia -iica arsis wiigss acc suc w cris. Fr ciiias, iruci s-ri iiary cris cu ry w u ssibiiis r a ruci i ciss ciiia cr.Gi quick rss i as ar is sragy, cba c-ars wu a xrcis ar grar r r i iiiaia wu b accab by ciiias.148 Mr iray, ak w cri ucia wiu crisig ciiia c-

r, r wu b a grar isiuis wic sura rai rss cri. Iias ca a cr sys wuas a b sisica ug wisa a icras i cisi-akig aciiy gra by aur is cba rais. Tbiggs cag r ciiias i accig w iiary cris is iki a crgc i cii-iiary ucis. As g as rxiss a ssibiiy r uur wars wi Pakisa i saw ucar

was, a car sarai i cii-iiary ucis ig b issib aci.

Notes

1. Raju G. C. Tas, Iia Ds Picy: Ciuiy a Cag ur JaaaGr, Pacic Aairs53, . 2 (Sur 1980): 225.

2. Ibi., 227.3. Raju G. C. Tas, Treat Perceptions, Nonalignment and the Deense Burden (Nw Di:

MacMia, 1978), 54. Fr ais US-Pakisa raisi, s Dis Kux, Te UnitedStates and Pakistan, 19472000: Disenchanted Allies(Wasig, DC: Js Hkis UirsiyPrss, 2001).

4. Annual Report, 196768, Government o India, Ministry o Deense, 1.5. Annual Report, 196465, Government o India, Ministry o Deense, 2.6. Iy Abraa, Producing Deense: Reinterpreting Civil-Military Relations in India, ACDIS

ar (Urbaa-Caaig: Uirsiy Iiis, 1992).7. Fr ais Iia-Si raisi, s Sas K. Mrra, India and the Soviet

Union: rade and echnology ranser(Cabrig: Cabrig Uirsiy Prss, 1991).8. Riki Jaia, T Iia Nucar Exsi, International Security 1, . 4 (Srig

1977): 44.9. O sciiss rs i Iias ucar rgy rgra, s Okar Marwa, Iias

Nucar a Sac Prgras: I a Picy, International Security2, . 2 (Auu 1977):

96121. Scars a aac arius iica, cic, a sragic xaais r cuc Iias ucar ss i 1974. Fr r is subjc, s Asis Nay, Bw


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w Gais: Psyciica Ascs Nucarizai Iia,Asian Survey14, . 11(Nbr 1974): 967. As s Grg Prkic, Indias Nuclear Bomb (Brky: Uirsiy Cairia Prss, 2001); P. N. Dar, Indira Gandhi, the Emergency and Indian Democracy

(Nw Yrk: Oxr Uirsiy Prss, 2001); a Sig S. Harris, Pau H. Krisbrg, a D-

is Kux, s., India and Pakistan: Te First Fity Years(Cabrig: Cabrig Uirsiy Prss,1998).

10. Rajs Basrur, Nucar Was a Iia Sragic Cuur,Journal o Peace Research38, . 2 (Marc 2001): 18198.

11. Ibi.

12. K. Subraaya (cr Naia Scuriy Aisry Bar [NSAB]), ir-iw by aur, Nw Di, 24 May 2006.

13. Ibi.

14. L G Sais Nabiar, Fiy Yars Iia Ic: A Sragic Riw, Isiur Pac a Cfic Suis ar, 15 Augus 1997, ://www.ics.rg/.

15. G Vijay Obri (rr ic-ci Iia ary), iriw by aur, NwDi, 7 Ju 2006.

16. S C, Scuriy Issus i Su Asia,Asian Survey15, . 3 (Marc 1975): 209.17. Ibi.

18. Frai Arica Sciiss, A Bri Hisry Pakisas Nucar WasPrgra, ://www.as.rg/uk/gui/akisa/uk/ix..

19. Rasu B. Rais, Pakisas Nucar Prgra: Prscs r Prirai,Asian Survey25,

. 4 (Ari 1985): 463. Fr a ai aaysis Pakisas ucar was rgra, s SWissa a Hrbr Krsy, Te Islamic Bomb: Te Nuclear Treat to Israel and the MiddleEast(Nw Yrk: is Bks, 1991); a Ow B Js, Pakistan: Eye o the Storm (Nw

Ha, C: Ya Uirsiy Prss, 2003).20. Cary Sub, Pakisas Nucar Was Prgra: Bgiig, ://

ucarwaarci.rg/Pakisa/PakOrigi..21. Rais, Pakisas Nucar Prgra, 465.22. Saia A, Pakisas Nucar Was Prgra: urig Pis a Nucar

Cics, International Security23, . 4 (Srig 1999): 182.23. Ibi., 183.24. Js S. Bruz, DPRK-Pakisa Gauri Missi Crai, 21 May 1998,

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s Dugas Fraz a Cari Cis, s., Te Nuclear Jihadist(Nw Yrk: w Bks,

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://www.gwu.u/~sarci/NSAEBB/NSAEBB45/riix..27. Sub, Pakisas Nucar Was Prgra.28. Lar S. Scr, Nuclear Prolieration oday(Cabrig: Baigr, 1984), 107.

29. Raj Cgaa, Weapons o Peace: Te Secret Story o Indias Quest to be a Nuclear Power(Nw Di: HarrCis Pubisrs Iia, 2000), 32932.

30. Sui Gaguy, Iias Paway Pkra II: T Prscs a Surcs Nw D-

is Nucar Was Prgra, International Security23, . 4 (Srig 1999): 163.

31. Ibi., 165. As s S R. Wisa, Iias Nucar Ergy Picy Raiss NwDubs Ars, New York imes, 7 May 1988.


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32. Dai Abrig, Fras Brku, a Wiia Wakr, s., Plutonium and Highly En-riched Uranium 1996: World Inventories, Capabilities and Policies, SIPRI Mgra (Oxr:Oxr Uirsiy Prss, Sck Iraia Pac Rsarc Isiu, 1997).

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a Mark Hibbs, Pakisas Bb: Ou Cs, Bulletin o the Atomic Scientists48, .

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41. Prkic, Indias Nuclear Bomb, 240.

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ar, rsi 1.0 (Wasig, DC: Hry Sis Cr, 2003). Fr r Zia-u-Haqsicis, s Rbr Wirsig, Pakistans Security under Zia (Nw Yrk: Pagra Macia, 1991).

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wi a Iia jurais a Pakisa wu us bb i rquir. T auiciy iscai rais ubius a s cu r a ac.

52. Durig is i, Pakisais wr ig ucar was bu ack ki aac ucar arsa a Iia a.

53. Suc ccusis wr raw r iriws wi iiary cias a ar aaiabi Kai Bajai a., s.; Brasstacks and Beyond: Perception and Management o Crisis in SouthAsia (Nw Di: Maar, 1995). Or scars, suc as Raj Cgaa, arri a a siiar

ccusi. Suarjis ra a was aack Pakisas Pujab a cu is accss Si.T riary bjci was sry Pakisas asc ucar arsa br i aur a


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54. Gra H Iia ary accus Gra Suarji ryig gag Pakisa i

a war wiu Pri Miisr Raji Gais kwg. Fr r is issu, s P. N. H,

Unmasking Secrets o urbulence: Midnight Freedom to a Nuclear Dawn (Nw Di: Maas Pubi-cais, 2000).

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Isurgcy: Piica Mbiizai a Isiuia Dcay, International Security21, . 2(Auu 1996).

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Rug, 2003), 84.58. Fr ais giais a Gas Missi, s Mica Kr a Misi

Faruqu, s., Confict Prevention and Confict-Building Measures in South Asia: Te 1990 Crisis,ccasia ar . 17, (Wasig, DC: Hry Sis Cr, 1994), 6.

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2005), ://www.wiscsirjc.rg/curis/iia/iia-ucar-is..96. Iia Nay Bui Is Firs Aircra Carrir,Janes Deence Weekly, 23 Augus 1995.97. Bara Kara, T Pris Drrc by Ha Masurs, Nuclear Weapons and Indian

Security: Te Realist Foundations o Strategy(Nw Di: MacMia, 2002), 65758.98. Wis J, Scr Nucar Subari Racs Via Sag, Pioneer(Nw Di), 21

May 1997.99. Ibi.100. Kara, T Pris Drrc by Ha Masurs.101. Vic Aira Suri, iriw by aur, Nw Di, 23 Ju 2006.102. Aruai Gs (rr Iia abassar Ui Nais a ci giar

CB), iriw by aur, Nw Di, 25 May 2006.103. Fr arius bks a arics Kargi war, s Jasji Sig, Pakisas Fur

War, Strategic Analysis23, . 5 (Augus 1999): 696; Jasji Sig, Kargi 1999: Pakistans FourthWar or Kashmir(Nw Di: Kwg Wr, 1999); Pra Swai, Te Kargil War(NwDi: Lwr Bks, 1999); a Kai Bajai, Aiab Ma, a Asir Kari, s., Kargiland Ater(Nw Di: Har Aa, 2001).

104. Braa Cay, Cags Iias Naia Scuriy i Nw Miiu,Securing Indias Future in the New Millennium (Nw Di: Ori Lga Prss, 1999), 538.


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Ayesha Ray

[50]

105. Aysa Ray, T Kargi War: Csqucs r Iias Scuriy, MPi issrai,Jawaara Nru Uirsiy, 2001, 21.

106. Sig, Pakistans Fourth War, 685.107. Maj G Ask Krisa, Lsss, Prcs, a Prscis, i Ask Krisa a

P. R. Cair, s., Kargil: Te ables urned(Nw Di: Maar, 2001), 166.108. G V. P. Maik, Kargil: From Surprise to Victory(Nw Di: HarrCis, 2007), 132.

109. Ibi., 133.

110. Iia Kargi Riw Ci, From Surprise to Reckoning: Te Kargil Review CommitteeReport(Nw Di: Sag, 2000).

111. Fr xcui suary Kargil Report, s ://ucarwaarci.rg/Iia/KargiRCB.. T cs suc isiuia cags ar iscuss a gra g ica. 2.

112. Ra Sci II, Iigc, suary Kargil Review Committee Report, ://ucarwaarci.rg/Iia/KargiRCB..

113. Kargil Review Committee Report, xcui suary, 25 Fbruary 2000, ://www.as.rg/ws/iia/2000/25ii1.#3.

114. Ibi.115. S Sci IV xcui suary Kargil Review Committee Report, CI

Orais, Kargi a Igra Mawr Picy, ://ucarwaarci.rg/Iia/KargiRCB..

116. Ibi.117. I s Iia sragic circs, iiary biizai urig is crisis is csi-

r b rs u-bw y sic 1971.118. W Ar Prar: Ary Ci, Hindu, 12 Jauary 2001.

119. Fr s crsi accu crisis, s L G V. K. S a PraiSawy, Operation Parakram: Te War Unnished(Nw Di: Sag, 2003). Fr a car scri-i w ass crisis a r Arica iacy i rgi, s SuiGaguy a Di Hagry, Fearul Symmetry: India-Pakistan Crisis in the Shadow o NuclearWeapons(Nw Di: Oxr Uirsiy Prss, 2003).

120. Pra Swai, Gra Paaaba Mus r Lsss Parakra, Hindu, 5Fbruary 2004.

121. Ibi.122. Sajay Airwa, Orai Parakra: Hua Css Ouubr Kargi, DeenceIndia

.com, 31 Juy 2004, ://www.ciia.c/26-ju-2k4/ws32..123. Ibi.124. Fr xas Arica iiarys criicis wi war bjcis i Iraq, s Ex

Gra Cas Iraq a Nigar,Al-Jazeera, 13 Ocbr 2007; a T Sakr, Tir RirGra Was Rus Ou, New York imes, 10 Ari 2006.

125. Mica Abrawiz a Kar D Yug, Praus Disai a Piica Sa Iraq, Washington Post, 8 Sbr 2007.

126. Swara Sig, Kargi Cfic a Iias Dba Lii War, Encounter3, .5 (2001): 26. Fr r is subjc i Iia cx, s Swara Sig, Limited War(Nw Di: Lacr, 1995).

127. Ibi., 2728.128. T iig Iias ucar cri suggss a ciiias a bgu ayig grar

ai ucar sragy. T rass r ubisig a ucar cri i iias-Kargi ri ay a b w. Firs, ciiias ay a sra


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a ss sriusss issu ucarizai, sciay sic Kargi war a a aucar scari ry ra. Sc, a ucar cri wic sci Iia gas ursuiga iiu ucar rr a -rs-us icy was a cuica Iias rrs i rig uur cfics wi Pakisa r siraig u cr.

129. Iia Miisry Exra Aairs, Dra Rr Naia Scuriy AisryBar Iia Nucar Dcri, 17 Augus 1999.

130. Gs, iriw.131. Kai Bajai, T Faacy a Iia Drr, i Aiab Ma, ., Indias

Nuclear Deterrent: Pokhran II and Beyond(Nw Di: Har Aa, 1998), 178.132. Tis is cy rrr as sabiiy-isabiiy arax. Fr r is issu,

s G Syr, T Baac Pwr a Baac rrr, i Pau Sabury, ., Te Bal-ance o Power(Sa Fracisc: Car, 1965). Fr a r ai iscussi is cc i Su Asia cx, s Sui Gaguy, Confict Unending(Nw Yrk: Cubia UirsiyPrss, 2002).

133. Sc Saga, T Pris Prirai i Su Asia,AsianSurvey(NbrDcbr2001): 106486.

134. V. R. Ragaa, T Kargi Curu, Hindu (Maras), 28 May 1999.135. G V. R. Ragaa (rr br Has Bix Cissi Was

Mass Dsruci a ircr Di Picy Gru), iriw by aur, 27 Ari 2006.136. Ca Bara Vara, A Rui i Iia Mis, Security Research Review1,

. 1 (Ocbr 2004), ://www.bara-raksak.c/SRR/2004..137. Fr rc suis is subjc, s War Lawig, A C Sar r H Wars? T

Iia Arys Nw Lii War Dcri, International Security32, . 3 (Wir 2007/08):15890; a Subas Kaia, Indias New Cold Start War Doctrine Strategically Reviewed,ar . 991, Su Asia Aaysis Gru, 5 Ari 2004, ://www.suasiaaaysis.rg/

%5Cars10%5Car991..138. Ibi.139. Y. I. Pa, Dig Vijay Diya AsraA Paraig Si i Iia Arys Dcri,

Bharat Rakshak Monitor6, . 6 (MayJuy 2004).140. Fr r C Sar Dcri, s Kaia, Indias New Cold Start War Doctrine,

a Kaia, Indian Armys New Cold Start War Doctrine Strategically ReviewedPart II: AdditionalImperatives, SAAG ar . 1013, 1 Ju 2006.

141. Iia Ary ss Is Nw C Sar Dcri, India eNews, 19 May 2006, ://www.iiaws.c/iia/20060519/8465..

142. Kaia, Indias New Cold Start War Doctrine.143. Subas Kaia, Iia Ary Vaias Is C Sar Dcri, 7 Ju 2005, ://

iibris.bgs.c/2005/06/iia-ary-aias-is-c-sar..144. Bara Kara (rr br NSAB), iriw by aur, Nw Di, 26

Ari 2007.145. Cars Msks, T Erg Miiary: Cii, raiia r Pura, Pacic Sociological

Review16, . 2 (Ari 1973): 267.146. Sa C. Sarksia, Miiary Prssiais a Cii-Miiary Rais i Ws,

International Political Science Review2, . 3 (1981): 288.147. Ibi.148. Fr r w ciiias a iiary wu cabra xcuig

sragy, s Pa, Dig Vijay Diya Asra.


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Strategic Studies Quarterlysummer 2009[52]

Ami Gup is n ssoci posso in Dpmn o Innionl Scuiy Sudis USAF

Ai W Collg, Mxwll AFB, Albm. His cun sc ocuss on Sou Asin nd Auslinscuiy issus. H s lso bn wiing on globlizion o spos.

Indias Military Aviation Market

Opportunities for the United States

Amit Gupta

What are Indis uu viion quimns nd w poliicl, mili-y, nd conomic oppouniis do y psn o Unid Ss?T cos impon in undsnding s wo pnomn:

Indin policy mks bginning o ink in ms o pojcing

pow x-gionlly nd, o, invsing in wponssysms ncssy o civ is objciv.

T US-Indi lionsip is cnging, nd ns o cnologyis bcoming cnl p o nsomd lionsip.

Indis conomy is siing om Sovi-syl commnd conomy o modn conomy, nd is is sing o impc on pocumnnd dvlopmn o wpons sysms.

In is conx, xmining Indin viion mk povids bundsnding o w oppouniis nd cllngs in bodUS-Indi sgic lionsip.

Background

As Indi movs owd bcoming n x-gionl pow, i sbgun puing mo muscl ino is miliy viion. Indin scuiyinss qui pow pojcion byond Sou Asi nd ino

Indin Ocn liol nd Cnl Asi. Fu, Indin nlyss viwCin s long-m scuiy concn nd, o, s ndo dvlop obus dn gins couny; is quis n-ncing bo convnionl nd nucl cpbiliis o Indismd ocs. Logiclly, ipow bcoms n ingl p in dvl-oping n x-gionl cpbiliy. Coupld wi is dvlopmn is


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cogniion o cnging nu o w. Indin mdocs w lo o us ipow s p o i couninsugncysgy, o sons discussd blow. Rcnly, owv, y v

bgun o si om is posiion nd sk o build couninsugncyi cpbiliy.

o c is x-gionl cpbiliy, Indin md ocs modnizing i componns o c svic. Indin i oc(IAF) s ddd i uling nks nd n ibon ly wn-ing (AEW) sysm o is l. Wn coupld wi long-ngSu-30 mulipupos ig, oc is mging wi signiicncpbiliy in Indin Ocn gion. Indin nvl viion is x-

pcd o b nncd by cquisiion o Admiral Gorshkovci, wic will pmi Indin nvy o v mo civi cpbiliy. Indin my is lso sking o build up is own im. Addiionlly, Indi quis nw lig nd mdium licops, mdium-ng comb ic, nw connissnc plns, nd ndvncd AEW cpbiliy. W w v, o, is lg Indinmiliy viion mk wiing o b ppd by vy mjo mspoduc in wold.

quimns o nw wpons sysms king plc wiin conx o poliicl nd conomic sis v com bouin Indi in ps dcd. Indis mk oms v sd oslowly dismnl Vicoin- buuccy nd Sovi-syl com-mnd conomy. Poliiclly, Indi s movd owds mo posiivlionsip wi Unid Sson s opnd possibiliyo incsd miliy coopion bwn wo counis.

Unil cnly, bulk o Indin ic pocumns w om

Russi (o swil Sovi Union), bu now Indins sk-ing o mov owds mo divsid pocumn sgy. Tiscs mjo oppouniy o Unid Ss o sll wponyo Indi, us no only cmning mging sgic lionsip

wi couny, bu lso binging luciv businss o Amicnms compnis. Ging Indis businss, owv, quis inkingpocivly nd undsnding w Indin mk wns, wmks Indins suspicious bou Unid Ss, nd ow

Unid Ss cn lp Indins ink bou w i uu nvionmn will b lik.


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Strategic Studies Quarterlysummer 2009

Amit Gupta

[54]

The Development of Indian Airpower:Rationale, Acquisition, and Production Trends

T dvlopmn o Indin ipowbo lnd-bsd nd miimws bsd on Indin ldsips nionlisic vision nd on supplynd souc consins couny cd in mp o build upis miliy cpbiliy. Indis nionl ldsip dcidd in 1950s obuild domsic viion indusy om scc. Tus, Indin govn-mn dcidd o dsign nd dvlop pimy pison-ngin in, subsonic j in, nd supsonic g. Jwll Nu, Indiss pim minis, wnd Indi o bcom on o mos cnologicllydvncd counis in wold, nd is includd dvlopmn o

modn ms indusy.1Ely Indin os o domsiclly poduc ic ld o mixd suls.

T pison-ngin in nd j in w pu ino svic buonly dvlopmnl nd poducion dlys. Tis ld Indi o pocumgncy bcs o S-11 Isk ins om Polnd. T supsonic jg ( HF-24 Mu) ws pu ino svic in 1964 considbldly bu nv cd supsonic spd nd ws cniclly obsol by im i nlly nd svic.2 T pogm ws vnully bndond

in 1970s wn n mp o pu n bun on pln ndd in l cs.T sons o is disml pomnc ly in souc, cnologicl, p-

sonnl, nd buucic consins. Indi ws dvloping couny sk-ing o build dvncd g plns im wn i lckd xpincdpsonnl, indusil insucu, nd vn bsic mcin ools osuccssully cy ou suc pogm. Fu, Indin govnmn wslo o povid scc soucs o binging suc pogms o uiion,dpnding insd on domsic indusy o dliv goods. T Indin

govnmn us usd o py Bisol Ao Engins s i quido dvlop Mus poposd ngin o supsonic cpbiliy. Insd,divn by cos consins nd poliicl gnds, govnmn soug ounsuccssully collbo wi Egypin Hlwn g pojc.

Buucic consins lso cd pocumn pocss. TIndin md ocs viwd mslvs s possionl ging oc,bsd on Biis diions nd oping wiin globlizd miliynvionmn. Ty bsd i quimns, o, on w ws

considd s o in ld o miliy ic nd imposds sndds on domsic ms indusy. So insd o sking


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domsic viion indusy o build w ws cnologiclly sibl,y insd s impossibl sndds by sking o w ws miliilydsibl. No supisingly, domsic viion indusy could no

dliv n ccpbl poduc.Finlly, Indis dns sciniss v bn pon o sking cnologi-

clly mbiious s opposd o cnologiclly sibl pojcs. Tis wssn in 1980s wn Indin govnmn dcidd o sncion dvlopmn o lig comb ic (LCA)ssnilly ligwigsupsonic g o plc IAFs ging MiG-21 wokos.3 T Indinms indusy d no succssully buil supsonic g, l lon nngin o pow i, bu ws onc gin willing o k on pojc. A

sm im, IAF ws sking n dvncd j in ig-subsonic inwi wpons pylod cpbiliynd d nd ino ngoiionswi Biis Aospc o Hwk. Building n dvncd j inwould v bn wiin cnologicl compnc o Indin msindusy bu i, insd, cos o build mo complx LCA. Among sons givn o is coic ws building j in wouldcondmn Indi o cnologicl colonilism. Indi, o, pusud LCA wi mili suls: cos ovuns, lngy dlys, obsolscnc,

nd inbiliy o m pssing i oc nds o plcmn.4

T IAF vnully ndd up buying Hwk, 20-y dly, cos o $5 billion o Indin xcqu. T iuds o dnssciniss v no cngd, s y coninu o dmnd pojcs byond cun indusil bs nd cnologicl cpbiliy o couny.

Coupld wi consins posd by domsic ms poducionnd cquisiion quimns w poblms o supplis nd soucs. As

dvloping nion, Indis ms-pocumn os w dmind by vilbiliy o supplis nd soucs. Wn soucsd cuncy

w vilbl, Indi ws bl o buy ic om Ws, mos nobly Unid Kingdom nd Fnc. Wn d cuncy ws unvilbl, id o dpnd on Sovi Union, w i ws bl o mk pucssin Indin ups. Tis ld o Indi ging plns did no ncssily is quimns o quliy IAF dsid. Indi ws dnid Su-24 Fnc by Sovi Union nd insd d o mk do wi lss-

cpbl MiG-23BN Flogg. Sps w lso consn poblm, s Sovi Union nd is succsso s, Russi, w dy in supplying m.


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Amit Gupta

[56]

Evn oug Cold W ndd nd US-Indi lionsipimpovd oug 1990s, dp-ood suspicions mind inmiliy nd poliicl cicls lik in Indi bou uswoinss

o Unid Ss s wpons suppli. Ciics likd o poin ou Unid Ss i Indi wi ms mbgos in bo 1965nd 1971 Indi-Pkisn ws (loug sncions w modmging o Pkisn, wic ws vily dpndn on US wpony,

wil Indi d divsid is pocumn), USS Enterprisews sn o By o Bngl in 1971 o pssu Indi o l Bnglds cmpign, nd 1998 nucl ss, Indi wsonc gin vicim o US sncions ld o signicn dlys in

LCA pogm, mongs o pojcs. Evn now, dspi signicncngs in lionsip, som Indin poliicl goupsnobly communis pis vs o signicn sgic pnsip

wi Unid Ss.5Finlly, US ms mnucus did no gsp imponc o

Indin ospc mk unil cnly, nd consqunly, did no v pmnn psnc in Indi. In cons, Russins, Fnc, Biis, nd vn Islis d sblisd pmnn ofcs in Indi.In ls coupl o ys, owv, siuion s cngd s Indis

willingnss o buy Amicn wpons sysms nd boom in Indincivil viion v md i vil o compnis lik Boing nd Lockdo s up sop in Nw Dli.

Continuing Trends in Acquisition

T isoy o Indis cquisiion nd poducion o wpons s lbind svl nds likly o coninu ino n uu. On

o s is xisnc o lg dns poducion public sco mploys ousnds o popl. A px o is public sco pymidis Indis dns scinc bs. diionlly, dns sciniss v com-mndd considbl poliicl inunc sinc, s discussd li, suc-cding Indin govnmns v cognizd psig coms omindignous wpons-poducion pojcsspcilly in onuicl,spc, nd nucl spss wll s ponil uonomy n in-dignous wpons-poducion cpbiliy povids. A sm im, mos

o Indis indignous dns pojcs v m wi lngy dlys, cosovuns, nd, wn y do com o uiion, ndncy o us


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svic o dclin lg-scl pucss bcus o quliy qusionsIndin my cnly dcidd o disconinu buying Ajun min blnk bcus i wnd o mov on o s-o-- nk.6 Y

Ajun spn 30 ys in dvlopmn nd ws mn o sisy mysquimns wll ino cun cnuy.

As consqunc, Indi will coninu o povid pojcs o kp isdns scinc bs mployd nd nsu is public sco comp-nis coninu o poduc wpons sysms. Any ms pucss imks, o, likly o includ oss nd licnsd poducion o wpons sysms. A sm im, poo complion nd poducioncods o domsic ms indusy will qui collboiv vnus wi

oign compnis. Indi is now, o xmpl, sking oign pno lp dvlop Kvi ngin o js, pow pln sbn in dvlopmn o nly dcds. Incsingly, willb pssu o v join dvlopmn o poducs. In cn ys Indis codvlopd Bmos supsonic cuis missil wi Russi ndis sking o joinly dvlop mdium-ng nspo ic s wll s -gnion comb ic wi Russins. As gud l, onsp o pospciv slls my b o join suc pogms concp-ul plnning ps nd povid ciicl inpus on ngins, vionics, ndlconics.

T o pic o isoicl bggg coms om sis o m-bgos w plcd on Indi duing is ws wi Pkisn ndollowing is nucl wpons ss in 1974 nd 1998. Ts sncionsu Pkisni w o mo n Indis sinc Pkisns s-nl ws minly o Amicn oigin wil Indis ws mix o Sovind Euopn wpons sysms. Indi, owv, viwd mbgoss n mp cocion, nd is ngndd suspicion bou US

moivs. Ms wosnd 1974 nucl ss bcus o cnology cu-os s bck Indin civilin nucl pogm.Rsidul suspicion mins in Indi bou US moivs nd, o, is concn ny signicn miliy pucss om Unid Ss would lv Indi vulnbl o sncions nd cocivdiplomcy in uu conic. Edicing is will b difculudl o Amicn policy mks nd onuicl compnis.

Coninuing suspicion bou US innions cn b sn in lngy

nd d public db in Indi bou poposd join nucl dl.As p o dl, Indi will sp is civilin nd miliy nu-


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Amit Gupta

[58]

cl ciliis nd pu om und IAEA sguds. P o opposiion o dl sms om concns Indi will b losing isnucl uonomy nd giving Unid Ss cippling conol ov

is nucl wpons pogm. In ddiion, Indin L pis con-cnd dl would k wy oign policy mnuvbiliy:

In discussions on oign policy nd scuiy ms, L s xposd

vil o xnous nonnucl condiions inn in nucl dl. T40-y civilin nucl gmn will pu sv consins on ou indpndn

oign policy givn ppoc o Unid Ss s cd in Hyd

Ac nd 123 Agmn. Indi is soug o b bound o Unid Ss

sgic dsigns oug nucl dl.7

T Ls opposiion cm dspi c dl ws going o -mov som o cippling sncions d consind Indis civilinnucl pogm.

A id isoicl ngov coms om diions o viousIndin md svics. Hving Biis diions nd Biis-bsd mili-y docins, moving o n Amicn-syl oc sucu, docin, ndminnnc mod will pov o b difcul bu no impossibl jumpo Indin md ocs nd, in l ms, my lso b considd

unncssy. Aciving ognizionl nd culul cng will, o,qui bod db in Indin poliicl nd miliy cicls ( iscunly ongoing) o dmin xc nu o modn miliydocin Indi wiss o pusu.

W is cl, owv, is ll svics o Indin mdocs sking o ugmn i i componns. T my nd nvy sking licops, UAVs, nd in cs o my, vn cicluls. Bu mjo pucs o il wpons sysms will b

IAF. o undsnd ol o Indin ipow in sgic pspciv,on nds o discuss issu inpurple(join) msvn oug my no cully xis in Indin cs.

Airpower in Indian Strategy

T IAFs docin ws kn om Royl Ai Foc, om wic i wsbon in 1947. T Biis inunc coninud ino pos-indpndnc

, sinc s Indin ci o i oc ws ppoind only in 1954.Consqunly, IAF docin ws ocusd on Wold W IIld mis-


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sions lik sgic bombing nd indicion, nd svic soug opocu ic could cy ou s sks.8

In 1965 Indi-Pkisn w, is docin ld IAF o g

Pkisni i bss nd ngg in indicion os. Ts cics mwi limid succss bcus Pkisn bsd is ic dp insid isioy; IAF sud unncssy nd considbl losss in yingo ck s gs.9 Indi d no owd bss long bod

wi Pkisn, nd is llowd Pkisni gound ocs o pn wiou Indin il innc. Fu, ws lil coodi-nion wi my o nvy o povid i dnss o i ocs.

By 1971 w, n i ci, Pp Cnd Ll, dcidd

IAFs mission, in dscnding od o imponc, would b o (1) dnd ispc o couny, (2) povid i suppo o my nd nvy, (3) undk sgic bombing, nd (4) cy ou opions likpooping nd nspo.10

T nx mjo us o Indin ipow ook plc wi Kgilw o 1999. T Indin my discovd in 1999 Pkisni ocsd plcd oops on Indin sid o Lin o Conol (LOC) inKsmi. T dispu d long isoy. In 1980s Indi d knov dispud Sicn glci in Ksmi nd, in subsqun ys,slld Pkisni supply lins in Nlm Vlly w usd osupply Pkisni oops cd Indin oops on glci.In win o 199899, Pkisn plcd oops in Kgil nd Dsscos o Ksmi om w y could pu pssu on Higwy 1A,Indis min y ino non Ksmi, us cuing o Indin ccsso Sicn.11

T Indin my discovd incusion in My 1999 nd sponddwi n illy nd inny ssul on Pkisni posiions. T IAF ws

boug in 20-dy dly (wic ld o subsqun d dbin Indi on joinnss in w ging), nd IAF sw isl own ino vy din yp o limid w. T IAF ws no pmid o coss LOC o bomb Pkisni supply lins. A sm im, i cd osilcomb nvionmn i ws unppd o. T ig, snow-covdmounins md g cquisiion difcul, nd Pkisni oops w

wll bunkd in nd d bn supplid wi ng o sould-d,suc-o-i wpons. T l md i difcul o y in low lvls nd,

givn Pkisni oops w lodgd 1418,000 , slnng o SAMs ws s ig s 30,000 .12 Cying ou i op-


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Amit Gupta

[60]

ions, o, ws ug wi difculis. IAF id o impovisby using GPS nd sopwc o mk is muniions dops ccu-ly bu vnully d o us pcision-guidd muniions (PGM) o

succssully ck gsowv, ccoding o on souc, pobblyno mo n dozn PGMs w usd.13 I md IAF cogniz i ndd b lconic counmsus s wll s ddicd ic ok ou suc gs in uu conic.

In 2001, ollowing ois ck on Indin plimn, govnmn mobilizd is oops on Indi-Pkisn bod in nmp cociv diplomcy.14 Bo sids vnully bckd down,nd w clims Pkisni govnmn d nd

s us o nucl wpons. In Pkisns subsqun public dclionbou is nucl wpons docin, i s bn gud Pkisnmy would us nucl wpons i w o bing ovun byIndin oops.15 Tis ld o discussion in Indi o ow o us ipowin uu wiou cossing d lins would igg Pki-sni nucl spons.16 T pd cous o cion, i would sm,

would b o dvlop ipow so siks could b cid ou wipinpoin ccucy o ulll limid objcivs n pcipiing

ull-scl conic. Along wi nd o nd nw ppocs o -gionl conic siuions s bn cll o n i oc cn plyn x-gionl ol.

Wi gow o Indis ol nd su in innionl is, s bn cll o mk Indin miliy mo cpbl ox-gionl pow pojcion. T cun ci o Indin ioc, Ai Ci Msl Fli Mjo, dscibd cngd sgicpms o IAF s ollows:

T dwn sgic boundis o sugn Indi, o, xnd om Psin Gul o Sis o Mlcc nd om Cnl Asin Rpublics o Indin Ocn. T nlgd sgic dimnsions ncssi no only diclcng in ou sgic inking bu lso ccnu ol o ospc powin nw scuiy n.17

T uu nvionmn s, o, bn dscibd s on ncompsss ng o scnios includs:

o summis, in gopoliicl, gosgic nd scuiy nvionmn is likly

o pvil in 2020s, dics o nionl scuiy would plc ollowingdmnds on md ocs o nion:


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o b ppd o polongd nd widspd muli-on bod w wiCin wi only mo possibiliy o mploymn o nucl wpons.

o b ppd o so nd inns conic wi Pkisn wi l possibiliyo s us o nucl wpons by dvsy.

o b ppd o simulnous conic wi bo ponil dvsiscing in collusion.

o susin cpbiliy o g polongd low innsiy conic in Ksmind o snsiiv gions o couny in pusui o innl scuiy.

o dvlop nd minin cpbiliy o pid sgic invnion nd

pow pojcion in gion xnding om Sis o Mlcc o CnlAsi nd Gul o sgud nd pomo nionl inss.

o ply dominn ol in mngmn o disss nd nul clmiyin gion o ins.18

T IAF s spondd o is xpndd mission by cquiing o il uling nks nd ging long-ng comb ic in Su-30. I s lso pucsd Plcon ibon ly wning sysmom Isl nd pu i on Russin Il-78s. Addiionlly, indignous

AEW sysm dsignd by Dns Rsc nd DvlopmnOgnizion is o b ingd wi Emb js.19

T Indin nvy, similly, s bn nncing is miim i cpbiliy.T 1990s sw cquisiion o B connissnc ic, nd mocnly, govnmn s cquid Russin ic ci Gorshkov

wi componn o MiG-29K gs.Bo nvy nd i oc s mslvs s pojcing Indin

pow, givn cllngs posd by minining ow o n-

gy supplis, lping in umniin missions, nd nd o cklgionl s in Indin Ocn. Addiionlly, IAF ss islking on wo-on om Cin nd Pkisn. In ms o con-vnionl ipow, Pkisn is viwd s lss o poblm, sinc Indisould b bl o minin i supioiy in uu conic.

Givn cnging quimns o Indin md ocs, is cogniion y qui mo vsil nd b-quliy wpony oulll cnging missions y will b ckling. W my cili

cquisiion o suc wpony is Indis cngd poliicl woldviwpicully is opning o Unid Ss.

8/9/2019 The Eff

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The Effects of Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons