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The Effects-Based ApproachThe Effects-Based Approachandand

Effects-Based OperationsEffects-Based Operations

Presentation to ISMOR 30 Aug 05Presentation to ISMOR 30 Aug 05

Lt Col Jim PottsLt Col Jim PottsJoint Doctrine and Concepts CentreJoint Doctrine and Concepts Centre

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Effects-Based ApproachEffects-Based Approach

‘‘An Effects-Based Approach involves the An Effects-Based Approach involves the comprehensive, integrated application of all comprehensive, integrated application of all

instruments of Alliance power, both military and instruments of Alliance power, both military and non-military, to create campaign Effects which non-military, to create campaign Effects which

achieve desired outcomes.’achieve desired outcomes.’

NATO Bi-Strategic Command Strategic Vision

• Longer term view of strategic changeLonger term view of strategic change• Focus upon Outcomes to address causesFocus upon Outcomes to address causes• Complementary approach to SituationsComplementary approach to Situations

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Effects-BasedEffects-BasedAlready doing Effects?Already doing Effects?

AfghanistanAfghanistan

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Effects-BasedEffects-BasedAlready doing Effects?Already doing Effects?

Sierra LeoneSierra Leone

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• It is an approach not a doctrinal strait-jacketIt is an approach not a doctrinal strait-jacketNeed for simplicity and preserve place of intuitionNeed for simplicity and preserve place of intuition

• Logical development of Manoeuvrist Approach Logical development of Manoeuvrist Approach • Support systems and processes yet to be Support systems and processes yet to be

developeddeveloped• Everybody’s business; Everybody’s business; Multinational, Joint and Multinational, Joint and

Inter-AgencyInter-Agency

Presentation AimPresentation Aim

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Beware confusing Effects and Actions – Beware confusing Effects and Actions – Effects are the results of actionsEffects are the results of actions

All Combat Operations have an All Combat Operations have an ‘EFFECT’‘EFFECT’

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EffectsEffects

The physical or cognitive consequence(s) at any The physical or cognitive consequence(s) at any level within the Strategic Environment of one or level within the Strategic Environment of one or more military or non-military actions.more military or non-military actions.

• Effects can be:• Primary or Subsequent (second, third order etc)

• Intended or unintended

• Desired or undesired

• Decisive/Enabling

• Applied to friendly, adversary or neutral parties

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Three Block WarThree Block War

‘In one moment in time our service members will be feeding and clothing displaced refugees -

providing humanitarian assistance. In the next moment, they will be holding two warring tribes

apart - peacekeeping. Finally, they will be fighting a highly lethal mid-intensity battle. All in the same

day, all within three city blocks.’Gen C C KrulakComdt USMC2000

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The Strategic EnvironmentThe Strategic Environment

Military(Recognised OperationalPicture)

Economic

Political

Technological

Social & Cultural

Legal, Ethical & Moral

Dimensions

Physical(Recognised EnvironmentalPicture)

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End

StateEnd

State

Military

Diplomatic Line of Operation

Economic

EBO: Military Operations within a EBO: Military Operations within a Wider ContextWider Context

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• Exposes complexityExposes complexity• Causal linkagesCausal linkages

• Includes non-military lines of operationIncludes non-military lines of operation• Better identification of actions to achieve EffectsBetter identification of actions to achieve Effects

• Better orchestration of actionsBetter orchestration of actions• Leading to greater synergy of Effects andLeading to greater synergy of Effects and• Better mitigation of undesired EffectsBetter mitigation of undesired Effects

• Addresses both physical and cognitive domainsAddresses both physical and cognitive domains• Influence will, shape perceptionsInfluence will, shape perceptions• Adversaries, neutrals and alliesAdversaries, neutrals and allies

• Focus decision-makersFocus decision-makers

Effects-Based ApproachEffects-Based Approach

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• Applicable at the strategic, operational and Applicable at the strategic, operational and tactical levelstactical levels

• Supports enduring outcomes Supports enduring outcomes • In-depth understanding of the environment – In-depth understanding of the environment –

Risk analysisRisk analysis

Effects-Based ApproachEffects-Based Approach

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EtcEtc Etc Etc Etc

FRFR FR FR FR

USUS US US US

Comprehensive ApproachComprehensive Approach

MODFCO DfID Treasury Home Office

NGONGO

NGONGO

PMCPMC

PMCPMC

Commercial CompanyCommercial Company

Commercial CompanyCommercial Company

Greater chance of successGreater chance of success

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Comprehensive ApproachComprehensive Approach

J D C CAttacking enemy will and cohesion and…Attacking enemy will and cohesion and…

The Manoeuvrist ApproachThe Manoeuvrist Approach

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‘‘Until now they have refused to do battle with Until now they have refused to do battle with us. They are just going places.’us. They are just going places.’

Mohammed Saeed al-SahhafMohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf

Government of IraqGovernment of Iraq Information MinisterInformation Minister

…….avoiding his strengths..avoiding his strengths.

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Effects-Based Approach to Effects-Based Approach to OperationsOperations

• AnalyseAnalyse

• PlanPlan

• ExecuteExecute

• AssessAssess

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Analysis

- Understand the Strategic Environment

- Information gathering - long term

- Real-time monitoring - short term

Effects-Based Approach to Effects-Based Approach to OperationsOperations

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Analysis - ImplicationsAnalysis - Implications

• Need to understand consequencesNeed to understand consequences• First, second, third orderFirst, second, third order• Desired and undesiredDesired and undesired• CumulativeCumulative

• Cultural understandingCultural understanding

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Cultural IntelligenceCultural Intelligence

‘‘We needed cultural intelligence going in. We needed to We needed cultural intelligence going in. We needed to understand how the cultures tick, who makes the decisions, understand how the cultures tick, who makes the decisions, what things are taboo, what things are more acceptable. We what things are taboo, what things are more acceptable. We

go in and apply western logic and a western culture go in and apply western logic and a western culture approach and we always miss the boat. We need a strong approach and we always miss the boat. We need a strong sense of how to operate within their framework and a need sense of how to operate within their framework and a need

to understand how they operate.’to understand how they operate.’

General Anthony ZinniGeneral Anthony Zinni

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Planning

Analysis

- Identify coherent physical and cognitive Effects (including undesired)

- Identify Actions to achieve Effects

Effects-Based Approach to Effects-Based Approach to OperationsOperations

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Planning - ImplicationsPlanning - Implications

• Collaborative planning across the JTF and Collaborative planning across the JTF and ComponentsComponents

• Inter-agencyInter-agency• How to influence non-military actors?How to influence non-military actors?

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Planning Execution

Analysis

- Collaborative orchestration of activity to realise desired Effects

Effects-Based Approach to Effects-Based Approach to OperationsOperations

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Execution - ImplicationsExecution - Implications

• Integrated Joint FiresIntegrated Joint Fires• LiaisonLiaison

• Mil - milMil - mil• Mil - non milMil - non mil

• Direct InfluenceDirect Influence

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Planning Execution

Assessment

Analysis

-Measure success of Actions

- Establish progress towards Strategic Aim

Effects-Based Approach to Effects-Based Approach to OperationsOperations

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Assessment - ImplicationsAssessment - Implications

• Measures of EffectivenessMeasures of Effectiveness• Articulation of required EffectsArticulation of required Effects• Active, coherent information gatheringActive, coherent information gathering

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Planning Execution

Assessment

Analysis

Parallel Processes/Activities

Effects-Based Approach to Effects-Based Approach to OperationsOperations

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Effects - RelationshipsEffects - Relationships

The Strategic Aim is attained by achieving one or more Objectives.

Strategic Aim

Obj 1 Obj 2 Obj 3

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Effects - RelationshipsEffects - Relationships

An Objective is achieved by an aggregation of Effects

Objective

Effect 1

Effect 2

Effect 3

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Effects - RelationshipsEffects - Relationships

Conduct an Action in order that an Effect is realised

Effect

Action

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Effects - RelationshipsEffects - Relationships

E

A A A A

E

A

A

E

A A A

A

A

E

A

E

E

A

EE

E

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Effects - RelationshipsEffects - Relationships

A A

A

E E E E

A A A A

E E E E

A A

A

A A

Strategic Level

Operational Level

Tactical Level

A A A A

E E E

Obj

Obj

Obj

E E E

Obj

A A A

A

E E

As

Obj

E

A

Obj

E E

Obj

Strategic Aim

A

A

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Effects Development PlanEffects Development Plan

• Draw together disparate strands of developmentDraw together disparate strands of development• Identify and implement other workIdentify and implement other work• Establish an Integrated Analysis and Establish an Integrated Analysis and

Experimentation Campaign Plan (IAECP)Experimentation Campaign Plan (IAECP)• Align with Multi-national developmentsAlign with Multi-national developments

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Analytical ConceptAnalytical Concept

• Optimal execution is reliant upon technical Optimal execution is reliant upon technical enablersenablers• Network Enabled CapabilityNetwork Enabled Capability• Knowledge DatabasesKnowledge Databases• Predictive ToolsPredictive Tools• Models to replicate complex human-based systemsModels to replicate complex human-based systems

• Analytical Concept – Full Capability 2015+Analytical Concept – Full Capability 2015+• Assessment and Analysis activitiesAssessment and Analysis activities

• Varying levels of developmentVarying levels of development

• Planning and ExecutionPlanning and Execution• Iterative DevelopmentIterative Development

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Joint Doctrine NoteJoint Doctrine Note

• Lt Col Simon Scott RM - JDCC/PJHQ LiaisonLt Col Simon Scott RM - JDCC/PJHQ Liaison• JDN 01/05JDN 01/05

• Provides Interim (Short-Term) GuidanceProvides Interim (Short-Term) Guidance• Strategic, Operational, and Tactical InterfaceStrategic, Operational, and Tactical Interface• Publication Sep 05Publication Sep 05

• Longer-term: Revise JDP 01, JWPs 2, 3 and 5Longer-term: Revise JDP 01, JWPs 2, 3 and 5• Autumn 06?Autumn 06?

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• Longer term view of strategic changeLonger term view of strategic change• Comprehensive Approach to SituationsComprehensive Approach to Situations• Focus upon OutcomesFocus upon Outcomes

• It is an approach not a doctrinal strait-jacketIt is an approach not a doctrinal strait-jacket• Does not replace Does not replace TasksTasks and and PurposePurpose• Complementary to the Manoeuvrist Approach Complementary to the Manoeuvrist Approach • Support systems and processes yet to be Support systems and processes yet to be

developeddeveloped• Everybody’s business; Multinational, Everybody’s business; Multinational, Joint and Joint and

Inter-AgencyInter-Agency

Summary: EBA – A Way of ThinkingSummary: EBA – A Way of Thinking

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• Longer term view of strategic changeLonger term view of strategic change• Comprehensive Approach to SituationsComprehensive Approach to Situations• Focus upon OutcomesFocus upon Outcomes

• It is an approach not a doctrinal strait-jacketIt is an approach not a doctrinal strait-jacket• Does not replace Does not replace TasksTasks and and PurposePurpose• Complementary to the Manoeuvrist Approach Complementary to the Manoeuvrist Approach • Support systems and processes yet to be Support systems and processes yet to be

developeddeveloped• Everybody’s businessEverybody’s business; Multinational, ; Multinational, Joint and Joint and

Inter-AgencyInter-Agency

Summary: EBA – A Way of ThinkingSummary: EBA – A Way of Thinking

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Questions?Questions?