The Effect of Steroids on Home Runs

La Sierra University

John Pabustan

Statistics Final Project

Dr. Cruise

December 1, 2011

Statement of the problem:

One’s livelihood is often dependent on what their employer believes their worth to be in the workplace. Employees with higher values often get higher salaries and because of it people often attempt to get an edge over their counterparts by finding some way to increase their performance. Things like taking energy drinks to stay alert, attending secondary school to increase intelligence, or even taking some form of stimulant to increase performance often at least helps a person believe their worth has increased. The question becomes how far will a person go to receive a perceived “edge” and does this “edge” come at a price? Secondly, is the “edge” worth the risk and really does it affect a person’s performance? These questions are one’s we all deal with on a daily basis when attempting to decide whether or not to do something to increase our own performance. A cup of coffee, for example, may make you more alert in the mornings but overtime can be harmful to your health. These types of decisions have long time effects that we may not often see but, what if there was some product that could increase our productivity immensely? The product is readily available but is illegal in your profession while at the same time not illegal in some cases to the general public. In a more confusing sense the product in your profession has now been made illegal by the United States Government because of the importance of your profession to the general public and what people perceive to be a job that requires “integrity”. The job has no real impact on politics, science, or even general health of the public yet because of the perception of the profession it leads others to demand a higher form of self-evaluation from its employees. This profession is a game, but the game is Baseball.

Baseball is a game that is often called “America’s Game”. A game that many children grow up playing and many adults continue to romanticize about because it seems to show the freedoms Americans have to do something unheard of in other countries. It puts ideas such as capitalism and a blurring of color lines on to an even playing field where anyone can prove their worth to the world. The problem has become that players now who are living the ultimate dream, now may be doing things to get an edge to stay relevant in the game. Baseball contracts, as well as sports contracts in general, are all a perception of worth of a player. If a player can prove he is worth 8 million dollars he can command 8 million dollars. The inherent problem with baseball is it is an evaluation of players vs. other available players that can possibly do a job better than others or do the same job at a lesser wage. A game that started out very simply from a bat and ball has now become one where different drugs known as “steroids” cloud the wholesome idea of playing a kid’s game professionally. Baseball and Bud Selig (current Major League baseball commissioner) often turned a blind eye to “steroids” but due to recent government mandates it has become a hot button issue. The effect of “steroids” is often under debate but many who have used them swear by the idea that it makes a player hit more home runs. The question then becomes:

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Do Steroids Significantly Increase the Amount of Home Runs for professional baseball players?

If there is a significant correlation in the study, then the ban on them would make sense or would call for all steroids to be legalized to even the playing field. It also calls into place several other ideas that will be explained later in this study.

Hypothesis:

The rampant explosion of books and tell alls about steroid use points to several players who have hit incredible amounts of home runs and more importantly some admittedly using them to increase performance. During the 1998 season in which there was a homerun race between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa it was widely known that Mark McGwire who went on to break Roger Maris’ record of 61 home runs, was on Andro a steroid that one year later would be a banned substance (Hoberman 1) . Sammy Sosa who hit 66 homeruns that year would later test positive for steroids in 2003 and many have called for him to admit his use in 1998. The tell all books Game of Shadows and Juiced by Jose Canseco a former Mark McGwire teammate, exposed that several players were taking steroids from Balco a bay area steroid company or other sources. Many players deny their use of steroids although being found in both the Mitchell Report (a report by Senator George J. Mitchell from Maine that looked into anabolic steroid use in baseball) and in the Balco seized documents that named several players as clients. The list of names includes players such as Mark McGwire, Alex Rodriguez, Jose Canseco, Gary Sheffield and Jason Giambi who have commanded some of the biggest contracts in baseball as a result of incredible home run production. In fact, the highest paid player in baseball today is Alex Rodriguez who has admittedly taken steroids(Goldman 1 ).

My hypothesis based on the success of many alleged players is that the use of steroids leads to more home runs.

In fact, this year’s current NL Most Valuable Player Ryan Braun has recently been shown to have failed a drug test late this season and may have his MVP award revoked. (Weir 1)

Definition of Terms:

One of the major concepts of this study is understanding what statistically is considered a home run.

In baseball, a home run (abbreviated HR) is scored when the ball is hit in such a way that the batter is able to reach home safely in one play without any errors being committed by the defensive team in the process (Merriam-Webster). This would include all types of home runs such as inside the park (where a player reaches home safely without hitting it out of the field of

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play), a grand slam (a homerun with the bases loaded), and the most common homerun of hitting the ball out of the field of play(Merriam-Webster).

Any homerun listed that is scored a homerun by Major League Baseball will be taken into account no matter the variety.

Population and sample:

Statistically the only way to create the right type of significance as well as use players who definitely used steroids is to sample every player who since the Mitchell Report and the two tell all books that many people cite as the basis for steroids testing (Juiced and Game of Shadows) admitted to taking steroids. These players will be sifted by excluding pitchers who are not used to hit homeruns and will only use players who gave a definite season in which they began steroid use. Players who have subsequently failed drug tests while not admitting to steroid use or players who deny steroid use will not be used as there is a chance that they have never used them even with several implications that they were known by steroid suppliers.

The testimonies of many of the players listed come from the book Game of Shadows and are verified by the players themselves.

Research Tools:

-The Mitchell Report (explained above)

-Official Statistics Collected by Major League Baseball

-Game of Shadows by Mark Fainaru-Wada

-Juiced by Jose Canseco

-Verified Testimonies collected in Game of Shadows

Method of Analysis

The method of analysis chosen is a paired t test for dependent variables as we are studying a player before the use of steroids and after then comparing the results.

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Procedure

After gathering the information from the above listed sources, a paired t test was run with the previous season before steroid use and the admitted steroid use season. The Results are listed below.

Results

Admitted Steroid User

Previous Season Before Steroids

Admitted Steroid Season

Ken Caminiti 26 40Bobby Estalella 0 14Jason Giambi 38 41Jeremy Giambi 26 34Armando Rios 7 10Benito Santiago 6 16Gary Sheffield 25 39Jose Canseco 37 44Shane Monahan 0 4Wally Joyner 8 13Ryan Jorgensen 0 2David Segui 5 48Jason Grimsley 6 8Manny Ramirez 20 37Jorge Piedra 3 6Matt Lawton 20 39Mike Morse 0 3David Ortiz 20 31

Hypothesis test results: μ1 - μ2 : mean of the paired difference between Admitted Steroid Season and Previous Season Before Steroids H0 : μ1 - μ2 = 0 HA : μ1 - μ2 ≠ 0

Difference Sample Diff. Std. Err. DF T-Stat P-value

Admitted Steroid Season - Previous Season Before Steroids

10.111111 2.3331778 17 4.3336225 0.0005

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Conclusion:

After going through the available data on this study on the use of steroids in professional baseball I have found my study to be statistically significant (0.0005). My p < than alpha so I reject the null hypothesis and this means therefore, there is no greater than a five percent chance that this is due to chance. The magnitude of the study using a paired T-test shows that there is a difference of 10 more home runs being hit if steroids are being used. The direction shows that those using steroids are more likely to hit more home runs than in the previous season. The importance of this finding is that professional baseball is determined on how valuable a team owner finds your own particular value. Home runs often are a stat that many owners see as one where more compensation is due to a player in comparison to another who hits less home runs. A player can command upwards of millions of dollars for as little as ten more home runs than another player. The difference can be staggering as a player with 10 more home runs could make millions more than a player who has hit only 10 less. Players who want to increase their worth may see taking steroids as a difference between 100,000 dollars and 100 million dollars which is a difference that may sway one player or another to take steroids.

The worth of this study is that players who are willing to endure the consequences of health and governmental bodies can possibly use steroids to increase their home run totals. It is to their own discretion but steroids seem to increase home run production.

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Works Cited

Canseco, Jose. Juiced: Wild Times, Rampant 'Roids, Smash Hits, and How Baseball Got Big.

New York: It Books, 2006.

Fainaru-Wada, Mark. Game of Shadows: Barry Bonds, BALCO, and the Steroids Scandal

that Rocked Professional Sports. New York: Gotham, 2006.

Goldman, Russell. 'A-Rod' Alex Rodriguez Admits to 'Banned Substance' Use: 'I Was

Stupid, I Was Naive'. 9 Feb 2009. ABC News 8 Dec 2011.

<http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/story?id=6837969&page=1#.TuZIj1Y_tlI>

"home run." Merriam-Webster.com. Merriam-Webster, 2011.

Web. 12 Dec 2011.

Hoberman, John. Mark McGwire's Little Helper: The Androstenedione Debate. 8 Dec 2011.

<http://www.thinkmuscle.com/articles/hoberman/mcgwire.htm>

Mitchell, Senator George J. Report to the Commissioner of Baseball of an Independent

Investigation into the Illegal Use of Steroids and Other Performance Enhancing

Substances by Players in Major League Baseball. A study prepared for The U.S.

Congress. Press, 2006.

Weir, Tom. Should Ryan Braun lose MVP if he's guilty of using PEDs? 12 Dec 2011 USA

Today 12 Dec 2011.

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