The Economist / YouGov 2004 Presidential Election Internet ... · The Economist / YouGov 2004 Presidential Election Internet Poll: Post-Conventions Report Morris P. Fiorina, Jon Krosnick,

The Economist / YouGov 2004 Presidential Election Internet Poll:

Post-Conventions Report

Morris P. Fiorina, Jon Krosnick, and Samuel J. Abrams

YouGov began weekly polling immediately after the July 4 holiday weekend. As of

September 9 ten polls have been completed with sample sizes of approximately 2000

respondents per poll, most of whom fill out the questionnaire on Monday or Tuesday of the

week. The poll of August 2-4 reports public opinion surveyed 3-5 days after the Democratic

National Convention and the poll of September 6-8 reports public opinion surveyed 3-5 days

after the Republican National Convention. All figures are based on registered voters. All

data will be made available to the research community after the election.

Presidential Trial Heats

As seen in the accompanying figure, the race began as a virtual dead heat and

remains so today. Based on polling during the recent Republican Convention, Time reported

that President Bush enjoyed a double-digit lead among likely voters, and Newsweek reported

a similar margin at that time among registered voters. In contrast, a post-convention Gallup

Poll reported a smaller lead among likely voters and only a two-point margin among

registered voters.1 Our data are in accord with Gallup’s and indicate a race that is still neck

and neck. 2

In contrast to reports of many other reported polls, the YouGov responses indicate that

John Kerry received a small “bounce” after the Democratic Convention, a bounce that did not

erode until late August. On the order of 3 percentage points, this bounce came from the ranks

of those who previously reported intending to vote for someone other than Bush or Nader.

Bush support has been trending upward since mid-August, and the Republican Convention

seems to have added little or nothing to that trend. Compared to previous conventions, both

of the 2004 bounces were very small, but contrary to some other polls’ indications, the

YouGov data suggest that Kerry received more of a bounce than Bush.

Small fluctuations aside, the most striking feature of the trial heat series is the picture

of stability it conveys. The intended vote for both candidates has fluctuated within a narrow

band of 5 percentage points or so. Conventions, swift boat attacks, car bombs and job

reports have had little or no net impact on the YouGov respondents.

1 Frank Newport, “Questions and Answers with the Editor in Chief,” The Gallup Poll Tuesday Briefing, September 7, 2004. 2 A Rasmussen poll conducted at the same time as the most recent YouGov poll, also reports a one-point Bush lead. Mort Kondracke, “Bush, Kerry are Tied, and Neither Has Closed the Deal Yet,” (http:www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary).

2

Suppose the election for President were being held TODAY. Who would you vote for? George W. Bush, the Republican; John F Kerry, the Democrat;

Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, or someone else?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

July 5-6 July 12-14 July 19-21 July 26-28 August 2-4 August 9-11 August 16-18

August 23-25

August 31-September

1

September6-8

Perc

enta

ge (%

) in

Supp

ort o

f Can

dida

te

Bush Kerry Nader

Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote

3

Overall Presidential Approval

There has been very little movement in judgments of George W. Bush’s performance

as president. The approval series has tracked between 40 and 45 percent all summer, a bit

below where conventional polls typically have read. Moreover, in contrast to some

conventional polls, the YouGov polls do not show that the president’s approval ratings have

risen above 50 percent recently. Rather, they remain in dangerous territory, electorally

speaking.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


August 23-25

August 31-September

1

September6-8

Perc

enta

ge (%

) App

rovi

ng/D

isap

prov

ing

Approve Disapprove


4

5

Direction of the Country

Majorities of registered voters consistently express dissatisfaction with the way things

are going in the country, a sentiment that rose above sixty percent in the mid-August YouGov

poll and gradually diminished thereafter.

In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


August 23-25

August 31-September

1

September6-8

Perc

enta

ge (%

) Sat

isfie

d/D

issa

tisfie

d

Satisfied Dissatisfied


6

Voter Engagement in the Campaign

Consistent with conventional polls, registered voters in the YouGov samples

consistently express a high level of concern with the outcome of the election: 90 percent

claim such emotional engagement. But scarcely more than half the number who care “a

good deal” about the outcome report that they have been very interested in the campaign,

although the number of such interested has been climbing gradually during the summer.

Generally speaking, would you say that you personally care a good deal who wins the presidential election this fall, or that you don’t care very

much who wins?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

July 5-6 July 12-14 July 19-21 July 26-28 August 2-4 August 9-11

August 16-18

August 23-25

August 31-Sept. 1

September6-8

Per

cent

(%)

Care a good deal Don’t care very much Don’t know


7

Some people don’t pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you say that you have been very much interested, somewhat interested or not

much interested in the political campaigns so far this year?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


August 23-25

August 31-September

1

September6-8

Per

cent

(%)

Very much interested Somewhat interested Not much interested


8

Candidate Qualities

The following series of graphs describe how registered voters evaluated the

candidates. For the most part, these tend to mirror the overall tenor of the campaign. More

than John Kerry, George Bush has been perceived as “tough” and a strong leader. His

advantage in these popular perceptions of both qualities increased a bit after the Republican

Convention. Bush has also been viewed as somewhat more moral and trustworthy than

Kerry. On the negative side, Bush has been seen as too close to special interests. Kerry has

been seen as more intelligent and more knowledgeable, but his advantage in popular

perceptions of both qualities declined somewhat after the Republican Convention. The

charge that Kerry flip-flops on the issues was strongly reflected in the data, and again, his

disadvantage relative to Bush widened after the Republican Convention. The candidates

were evaluated very similarly when it comes to caring about “people like me.”

Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Intelligent"

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

July 19-21 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8% s

ayin

g th

is q

ualit

y fit

s hi

m "

Extr

emel

y W

ell"

or "

Very

Wel

l"

Bush Kerry

Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote

9

Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Trustworthy"

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


ayin

g th

is q

ualit

y fit

s hi

m "

Extr

emel

y W

ell"

or "

Very

Wel

l"

Bush Kerry


Candidate Trait Assessment: "He Cares About People Like Me"

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


ayin

g th

is q

ualit

y fit

s hi

m "

Extr

emel

y W

ell"

or "

Very

Wel

l"

Bush Kerry


10

Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Tough"

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


ayin

g th

is q

ualit

y fit

s hi

m "

Extr

emel

y W

ell"

or "

Very

Wel

l"

Bush Kerry

Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote.

Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Knowledgeable"

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


ayin

g th

is q

ualit

y fit

s hi

m "

Extr

emel

y W

ell"

or "

Very

Wel

l"

Bush Kerry


11

Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Moral"

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


ayin

g th

is q

ualit

y fit

s hi

m "

Extr

emel

y W

ell"

or "

Very

Wel

l"

Bush Kerry


Candidate Trait Assessment: "He Flip-Flops on the Issues"

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


ayin

g th

is q

ualit

y fit

s hi

m "

Extr

emel

y W

ell"

or "

Very

Wel

l"

Bush Kerry


12

Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is a Strong Leader"

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

July 19-21 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8

% s

ayin

g th

is q

ualit

y fit

s hi

m "

Extr

emel

y W

ell"

or "

Very

Wel

l"

Bush Kerry

Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote.

Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Too Close to Special Interests"

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


ayin

g th

is q

ualit

y fit

s hi

m "

Extr

emel

y W

ell"

or "

Very

Wel

l"

Bush Kerry


13

The Issues Perceptions of which candidate can best handle a particular issue tend to track the

extensive poll findings on such matters, with a few notable exceptions. In particular, in the

YouGov polls registered voters give Bush an edge on handling the economy during the next

four years, a surprising finding given the lackluster performance of the economy during the

President’s first term. Bush enjoys an advantage over Kerry in perceptions of his capacity to

combat terrorism, an advantage that has widened since the Republican Convention.

Similarly, Bush has an edge on conducting the war in Iraq. The data on the two items are

extremely similar, perhaps testimony to the Administration’s strenuous efforts to equate the

two. For most of the summer Kerry enjoyed a significant edge on international relations, but

Bush closed the gap after the Republican Convention.

When it comes to domestic issues, Bush enjoys advantages on the traditionally

Republican issues of taxes and crime. But the traditional advantage of a Democratic

candidate on most domestic issues is muted or even nonexistent. Only the environment

shows a clear advantage for Kerry. Health insurance, race relations and budget deficits show

a mid-summer advantage for Kerry that disappeared after the Republican Convention.

Neither candidate has a significant edge on public education. Bush is viewed as somewhat

better at handling the gay marriage issue, but as with the deficit issue, relatively fewer

Americans believe that either candidate could handle this issue well as compared to other

issues.

14

How do you think George W Bush/John F. Kerry would handle "the economy" over the next four years if he is re-elected/elected President on November 2nd?

0

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20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Survey Dates

Perc

enta

ge (%

) ans

wer

ing

"Exc

elle

nt"

or "

Goo

d"

Bush Kerry

Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" or "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote

How do you think George W Bush/John F. Kerry would handle "health insurance in America" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Survey Dates

Perc

enta

ge (%

) ans

wer

ing

"Exc

elle

nt"

or "

Goo

d"

Bush Kerry

Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote

15

How do you think George W Bush/John F. Kerry would handle "public education" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Survey Dates

Perc

enta

ge (%

) ans

wer

ing

"Exc

elle

nt"

or "

Goo

d"

Bush Kerry


How do you think George W Bush/John F. Kerry would handle "the environment" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Survey Dates

Perc

enta

ge (%

) ans

wer

ing

"Exc

elle

nt"

or "

Goo

d"

Bush Kerry


16

How do you think George W Bush/John F. Kerry would handle "race relations" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Survey Dates

Perc

enta

ge (%

) ans

wer

ing

"Exc

elle

nt"

or "

Goo

d"

Bush Kerry


How do you think George W Bush/John F. Kerry would handle "the conduct of the war in Iraq" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Survey Dates

Perc

enta

ge (%

) ans

wer

ing

"Exc

elle

nt"

or"G

ood"

Bush Kerry


17

How do you think George W Bush/John F. Kerry would handle "the conduct of the war on terrorism" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November

2nd?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Survey Dates

Perc

enta

ge (%

) ans

wer

ing

"Exc

elle

nt"

or"G

ood"

Bush Kerry


How do you think George W Bush/John F. Kerry would handle "taxes" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Survey Dates

Perc

enta

ge (%

) ans

wer

ing

"Exc

elle

nt"

or "

Goo

d"

Bush Kerry


18

How do you think George W Bush/John F. Kerry would handle "the federal budget deficit" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd?

0

10

20

30

40

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60

70

80

90

100


Survey Dates

Perc

enta

ge (%

) ans

wer

ing

"Exc

elle

nt"

or "

Goo

d"

Bush Kerry


How do you think George W Bush/John F. Kerry would handle "relations with America's allies around the world" over the next four years if he is re-elected

President on November 2nd?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Survey Dates

Perc

enta

ge (%

) ans

wer

ing

"Exc

elle

nt"

or"G

ood"

Bush Kerry


19

How do you think George W Bush/John F. Kerry would handle "marriage between people of the same sex" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on

November 2nd?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Survey Dates

Perc

enta

ge (%

) ans

wer

ing

"Exc

elle

nt"

or"G

ood"

Bush Kerry


How do you think George W Bush/John F. Kerry would handle "crime" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Survey Dates

Perc

enta

ge (%

) ans

wer

ing

"Exc

elle

nt"

or "

Goo

d"

Bush Kerry


20

The Race for Congress

Registered voters were nearly evenly split on the matter of which party they would like

to see in control of Congress after the election. A little over 40 percent said the Democrats,

and a little over 40 percent said the Republicans. Of course, such responses mean little

without knowledge of which candidate the voters would like to see win the presidency. They

are logically as consistent with forty percent of the electorate preferring unified Democratic

control and forty percent unified Republican control as with 80 percent preferring divided

control. As usual, public opinion lies between these two polar possibilities. About half the

registered voters favored unified party control, about a third divided control, and the

remainder didn’t have an opinion.

Who would you prefer to be in control of the Congress after the next election?

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50

60

70

80

90

100

July 5-6 July 19-21 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8

Survey Dates

Perc

ent (

%)

Democrats Republicans Don't know

Sample: Respondents w ho are registered to vote

21

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Survey Dates

Perc

ent (

%)

Same party control both Different parties control Don’t know

In general, do you think it is better for the same political party to control both the Congress and the Presidency, so they can work together closely, or do you think it is better to have different political parties controlling the Congress and the Presidency, to prevent either one from going to far?


22

Beer or Coffee

On a lighter note, by a margin of 56% to 44%, registered voters reported that they

would rather have a beer or cup of coffee with George Bush than with John Kerry. On the

other hand, John Edwards enjoyed a similar margin (59:41) over Dick Cheney.

23

24

Summary

The presidential race remains exceedingly close. Presidential approval ratings have

been at a middling level that is cause for concern in the Republican campaign, and a majority

of the registered voters have said they believe the country is going in the wrong direction.

President Bush certainly has not yet closed the deal with the American electorate.

Yet John Kerry has not been able to capitalize on the relative weakness of the

President’s position. Neither on the issues nor on his personal qualities has he been able to

establish a large edge over the President. On the contrary, Bush has been judged somewhat

more highly personally and somewhat more capable on the issues.

Documents

The Economist / YouGov 2004 Presidential Election Internet ... · The Economist / YouGov 2004 Presidential Election Internet Poll: Post-Conventions Report Morris P. Fiorina, Jon Krosnick,