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The Economic Outlook Mississippi University Research Center
Mississippi Institutions of Higher LearningDarrin Webb, State Economist
[email protected](601) 432-6556
To subscribe to our publications, email Janna Weller at [email protected] our website for state and county level economic data www.mississippi.edu/urcFollow URC on Twitter @MississippiURC
Consumer and Business Confidence
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Consumer Sentiment
Sentiment Low from Great Recession 55.8
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) Optimism Index
Optimism Low from Great Recession 81.0
URC May 2020 2
US Real GDP: Annualized Quarterly Growth
3.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1%
-4.8%
-36.5%
6.1%9.4%
12.2%9.4%
5.8%3.9% 3.8% 4.4% 4.6% 4.2%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4
URC May 2020 3
US Real GDP
$15,500
$16,000
$16,500
$17,000
$17,500
$18,000
$18,500
$19,000
$19,500
$20,000
2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4
Bill
ion
s o
f C
hai
ned
20
12
Do
llars
URC May 2020 4
Comparing Recessions, 2008 vs. 2020Quarterly Real GDP Indexed to Last Quarter of Growth
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
Q -2 Q -1 Q 0 Q +1 Q +2 Q +3 Q +4 Q +5 Q +6 Q +7 Q +8 Q +9 Q +10
"Great Recession" COVID19 Recession
Q-0 is last quarter of growth before recessionURC May 2020 5
US Real GDP: Annual Growth
-12.9%-11.6%
-2.5%
-7.3%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
19
31
19
33
19
35
19
37
19
39
19
41
19
43
19
45
19
47
19
49
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
URC May 2020 6
Monthly Change in Non-farm Employment
-881,000-1,000,000
-800,000
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20
URC May 2020 7
The # of jobs fell by over 20 million in April
Employment: Annualized Quarterly Growth
1.3% 1.1% 1.5% 1.7% 0.8%
-55.3%
-9.8%
12.4%
19.3%15.4%
10.2%7.1% 6.1% 6.2% 6.0% 5.2%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4
URC May 2020 8
Unemployment Rate
3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.8%
18.1%19.6%
18.2%
15.8%
13.8%12.6%
11.7%10.8%
9.9%9.0%
8.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4
URC May 2020 9
Brent Oil Spot Price Per Barrel
$63.38
$20.06
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$1402
01
0Q
1
20
10
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
14
Q1
20
14
Q3
20
15
Q1
20
15
Q3
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q3
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q3
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q3
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q3
20
20
Q1
20
20
Q3
20
21
Q1
20
21
Q3
20
22
Q1
20
22
Q3
20
23
Q1
20
23
Q3
20
24
Q1
20
24
Q3
URC May 2020 10
MS Real GDP: Annualized Quarterly Growth
1.0% 2.3% 1.8% 2.1%
-5.3%
-43.6%
5.0%9.0% 8.3% 6.7%
3.7% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 2.6% 2.7%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4
URC May 2020 11
MS Real GDP
$90,000
$92,000
$94,000
$96,000
$98,000
$100,000
$102,000
$104,000
$106,000
2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4
Mill
ion
s o
f C
hai
ned
20
12
Do
llars
URC May 2020 12
Historical GDP in MS
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Mill
ion
s o
f C
hai
ned
20
12
Do
llars
URC May 2020 13
Historical Annual Growth of MS Real GDP
-4.7%
-7.6%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
URC May 2020 14
MS Nonfarm Employment
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f Jo
bs
URC May 2020 15
Preliminary Data show a decline of 117 thousand jobs in April
Weekly Unemployment Claims in 2020
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Co
nti
nu
ed C
laim
s
Init
ial C
laim
s
Initial Claims Continued Claims
URC May 2020 16
Highest Initial Claims from “Great Recession” was 9,420Highest Continued Claims from “Great Recession was 49,935
MS Unemployment Rate
5.6% 5.4%
18.7%19.8%
18.7%
16.9%
15.4%14.3%
13.5%12.7%
11.6%
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2
URC May 2020 17
MS General Fund with Current URC Projections
$5,131.8
$5,598.4
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Mill
ion
s
URC May 2020 18
FY 2020 Estimate represents a decline of $864.4 Million below November Estimate.FY 2021 Estimate represents a decline of $367.1 Million below November Estimate.These estimates reflect a shift of $436 million from FY 2020 to FY 2021 due to change in filing dates.
Final Comments
• Income supported by unprecedented federal transfer payments (stimulus and additional unemployment claims)
• Projections always include assumptions about unknownsCurrent level of unknowns are elevated Assumptions for current situation can change dramatically with new informationUseful revenue data is limited – April Revenue report reveals very little
• Expect basic story to remain the same – Short Recession, Long Recovery• deepest hit in 2020Q2 • conditions begin to improve in Q3 as economy restarts; a relative short recession• Recovery continues into Q4 and through 2021-22 • Depth of recession means prolonged period before full recovery• MS follows similar pattern but is slower to fully recover; possibly 2023
URC May 2020 19
