Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008

InternationalTelecommunicationUnion

The East African Broadband Infrastructure Network (EAC-BIN): a

Platform for Migration to NGN

Shem J. Ochuodho, MSc (Eng), PhD, LLD (Hon)

Chairman, African Regional Centre for Computing (ARCC)

Regional Development Forum 2008“Bridging the Standardization Gap in Developing Countries”

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 2

Outline of Presentation

BackgroundSituational AnalysisRegional Integration & HarmonizationTraffic Analysis & ForecastsProposed 4-Tier Strategy

International SwitchingRegional/Cross-Border ConnectivityNational BackbonesRural & Local (Last-Mile) Access

Proposed Master Plan (EAC-BIN)Implementation Framework – Incl. FinancialsIndividual Country Case StudiesConclusions & Way Forward

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 3

BackgroundIdentified Constraints

Inadequate (Regional) Backbone InfrastructureHigh Tariffs (vs Low Income Per Capitas)Poor Rural CommunicationsPolicy, Regulatory & Legal DivergenceInstitutional challenges (esp. at regional level)

Some Suggested InterventionsAnalysis of Traffic PatternsAnalysis of On-going & Planned InitiativesDevelop Master Plan to improve connectivity

ITU/EAC StudyMethodology

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 4

Situational Analysis

Liberalization has led to remarkable growth esp. in mobiles; at 25% tele-density, more remains to be doneNeed for Broadband connectivity recognizedSeveral segments already upgraded to fibreMetropolitan Fibre Networks in all Capitals & Some Major Cities

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 5

Situational Analysis (cont’d)

Emergence & Rapid growth of Broadband wireless access technologiesInterconnection & Cross-border communication still a challengeCostly satellite systems still major means for international and in some cases cross-border connectivitySome terrestrial cross-border links are fibre grade, others microwave

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 6

Situational Analysis (cont’d)

Rural connectivity still inadequateSeveral initiatives to address broadband connectivity at multi-levelsLegacy Networks being replaced by IP/MPLS NetworksOn-going efforts to harmonize policies, regulations & legislationsOn-going efforts to rationalize deployment of e-Applications (e-Gov)Need for human & institutional capacity enhancement

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 7

Some Major Broadband Infrastructure Initiatives

EASSyNEPAD-NBINEABsTEAMSSEACOMFLAG/KDNEAC Carrier Project/ EAC-BINLake Victoria Maritime Communication ProjectRCIP

RICTSPEA Digital Transmission Project (discontinued)Alternative Infrastructures by UtilitiesSeveral Wireless Broadband InitiativesOther Regional Efforts-Connect Africa-Pan-African e-Network-RASCOM-COMTEL-SRII

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 8

Policy & Regulatory Profile

All (5) Countries but 1 have National ICT PoliciesDraft Harmonized Regional PolicyEfforts on-going to Harmonize Regulations National e-Legislations under considerationEALA in Existence and Active

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 9

Traffic Analysis & Forecasts

IntroductionNet Forecasts (Voice & Data)

Combined Voice & Data ProjectionsInt’l Inbound & Outbound TrafficEstimated Grey MarketsServed & Un-served demandInt’l Voice Traffic & Compression

Int’l Gateway Traffic ForecastsCross-border Traffic & Capacity Considerations

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 10

EAC Net Forecasts (Mbps) (1995-2012)

-

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

2,500.00

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

UgandaTanzaniaRwandaKenyaBurundi

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 11

Voice Traffic Forecasts btw Tz/Ke(Million Minutes)

350M/Mins

Est. Voice Traffic 2012

222111111TV Txn34Mbps

241160107714834262220VAS

1089076645853484440Traffic (Mill. Mins)

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

Year

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 12

Proposed 4-Tier Arrangement

International GatewaysRegional/Cross-Border ConnectivityNational BackbonesRural & Local (Last-Mile) Access

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 13

Proposed ‘Master Plan’

Proposed 4-Tier StrategyInternational LinksRegional/Cross-Border ConnectivityNational BackbonesRural & Local (Last-Mile) Access

For Each Tier, Strategies for:-Short-Term (up to 2 years)Medium-Term (2-5 years)Long-Term (5-10 years)

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 14

Proposed ‘Master Plan’

Kigali

Nairobi

Kampala

Bujumbura

Dar es Salaam

Wete

Embu

GuluArua

Lindi

Tanga

Moshi

Koani

Mbeya

Wajir

Nyeri

Ngozi

Mbale

Jinja

Bombo

Mtwara

Mkoani

Arusha

Musoma

Songea

Iringa

Kibaha

Dodoma

Tabora

Mwanza

Bukoba

Kigoma

NakuruKisumu

Byumba

Butare

Kibuye

RuyigiGitega

BururiRutana

Moroto

Masaka

Singida

Mombasa

Gisenyi

Kibungo

BubanzaKayanza Muyinga

Makamba

Mbarara

Morogoro

Zanzibar

Kakamega

CyanguguGitarama

Muramvya

Mkokotoni

Shinyanga

Ruhengeri

Gikongoro

Sumbawanga

Fort Portal

0 170 34085

Kilometers

East African Community CitiesNational CapitalProvincial Capital

Optical Fiber Network in EAC

(Envisaged EAC Regional Broadband Backbone Network - Short-to-Medium Term)

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 15

Alternative Utilities Infrastructure(Sample)

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 16

Implementation Framework

Policy ‘Environment’Human Resource & ExpertiseInfrastructure & Hardware ResourcesContent & e-ApplicationsFinance & Business ModelsPartnershipsOptimization & StandardizationThe Missing Link

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 17

Proposed Institutional Framework

Short Term (up to 2 yrs)SPV CompanyStrengthened ICT Unit @ SecretariatPermanent EARPTO SecretariatFormal & Legal Mandate for EARPTO

Medium Term (2-5 yrs)SPV CompanyICT Directorate within EAC SecretariatCommon Regulatory AuthorityEA Professional ICT Association

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 18

Proposed Institutional Framework

Medium Term (cont’d)Multi-Stakeholder ICT Organization

Long Term (Over 5 yrs)Full-fledged Carrier CompanyFunctional Multi-Stakeholder ICT OrganizationCommon Regulatory AuthorityEscalated Regional Integration

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 19

Financial & Economic Analysis

Estimated Project CostScenario 1 (All Microwave) – US$ 7/10mScenario 2 (All Fiber) – US$ 52mScenario 3 (Mixture) – US$ 39/42m

Viability CalculationsRevenue & Expenditure EstimationsFinancial ViabilitySensitivity Analysis

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 20

Individual Country Approaches

BurundiKenyaRwandaUgandaTanzania

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 21

Tanzania – Efforts Towards NGN(Source: TCRA)

Accra, Ghana, 26-28 May 2008InternationalTelecommunicationUnion 22

Conclusions & Way Forward

Resource Mobilization & Possible FinancingResource SharingRegulatory, Legislative & Institutional ReformsSpectrum Utilization & ManagementOpen Access Principals

Broadcasting & ‘Other’ ICT ServicesRwanda & BurundiEAC/ADB/ITU – EAC-BINSeeking Concurrence of Major Potential Stakeholders (esp. Telcos)Conclusion