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Modelo de pronóstico de demanda y su relación con la evaluación y tendido de sistemas de cable submarino.
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Investment in Undersea Cables * Unit Technology Investment Yield / Time to Install Unit Undersea Cable ~ Tbps/Month ~ Total Undersea Cable Capacity Acquired Per Month | Months per Year= 12 ~ Month/Year ~ | Available Undersea Cable Capacity= Undersea Cable Total Capacity * Simulated Disruption ~ Tbps ~ Available capacity given disruptions. | Average Investment in Undersea Cables= 1.2e+09 ~ Dollar ~ Exogenous Investment in Underseacable | Average Undersea Cable Investment per Stakeholder= 4e+13 ~ Dollar/Stakeholder ~ Average spending that generates an additional stakeholder | Base Year= 1990 ~ Year ~ Year of Starting the Simulation | Switch for Constant Internet Traffic for Test= 0 ~ Dmnl [0,1,1] ~ When set to 1, a constant external Internet traffic is used. | Disruption Start Time= 120 ~ Month ~ When does the disruption begin. Currently initialized to year 10 (month \ 120). | Duration of Disruption= 6 ~ Month ~ Duration of Disruption at year 10. | Initial Total Capacity of Undersea Cables= 0.029 ~ Tbps
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~ 10 times the 1990 Traffic, given that 90% is unlit capacity | External Fractional Capacity Lit for Test= 0.8 ~ Dmnl [0,1] ~ External Capacity Utilization for testing | External Total Internet Traffic for Test= 20 ~ Tbps ~ External Traffic, currently set to the global Internet traffic in 2010. | Additional Investment Requied= "Additional Total Unutilized (Unlit) Capacity Required"/Unit Technology Investment Yield ~ Dollar ~ Total additional investment required | Fractional Loss of Utilized Capacity= 0 ~ Dmnl ~ Fraction of Utilized Capacity Lost due to Disruption. Initialized to 0, so \ no disruptions in the normail case. | "Fractional Unutilized (Unlit) Capacity"= 1 - (Switch for External Fractional Capacity Utilization for Test * External Fractional Capacity Lit for Test\ + (1 - Switch for External Fractional Capacity Utilization for Test) * "Fractional Utilized (Lit) Capacity"\ ) ~ Dmnl ~ What fraction of undersea cable capacity is unutilized | "Fractional Utilized (Lit) Capacity"= MIN (1, ((Switch for Constant Internet Traffic for Test * External Total Internet Traffic for Test + (1 - Switch for Constant Internet Traffic for Test) * Used International Bandwidth\ )/Available Undersea Cable Capacity)) ~ Dmnl ~ What fraction of Undersea Cable Capacity is Utilized | Initial Bandwidth Usage= 0.00029 ~ Tbps ~ | Initial Investment in Undersea Cable= 1.2e+08
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~ Dollar ~ Total Investment in Undersea Cable in 1990 | Switch for Making Stakeholders Endogenous= 0 ~ Dmnl [0,1,1] ~ When set to 1, Number of Stakeholders impact the decision process | Simulated Disruption= 1 - Fractional Loss of Utilized Capacity * PULSE( Disruption Start Time , Duration of Disruption\ ) ~ Dmnl ~ Disruption that leads to capacity loss. 1 indicates no disruption (all of \ the capacity is available). Less than 1 indicates the correspoing fraction \ of capacity lost. | Time to Install Unit Undersea Cable= 6 ~ Month ~ 1/3rd of the Average Installation Time | Time to Invest in Undersea Cables= (1 - Switch for Making Stakeholders Endogenous) * Normail Time to Invest in Undersea Cable\ + Switch for Making Stakeholders Endogenous * Normail Time to Invest in Undersea Cable\ * Effect of Number of Stakeholders on Time to Decide(Stakeholders in Undersea Cable Governance ) ~ Month ~ Time to make investment decision | Switch for External Fractional Capacity Utilization for Test= 0 ~ Dmnl [0,1,1] ~ When set to 1, external capacity utilization is used for testing purposes. | Year= Base Year + (Time/Months per Year) ~ Year ~ Current Year | Stakeholders in Undersea Cable Governance= Investment in Undersea Cables/Average Undersea Cable Investment per Stakeholder ~ Stakeholder [1,36,1]
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~ Total Stakeholders in the Decision Process | "Additional Fractional Unutilized (Unlit) Capacity Required"= MAX ( 0 , ("Desired Fractional Unutilized (Unlit) Capacity" - "Fractional Unutilized (Unlit) Capacity"\ ) ) ~ Dmnl ~ When unutilized capacity is less than desired, use that value to build \ additional capacity. When there is sufficient unutilized capacity, do \ nothing. | "Additional Total Unutilized (Unlit) Capacity Required"= "Additional Fractional Unutilized (Unlit) Capacity Required" * Undersea Cable Total Capacity ~ Tbps ~ Build the required additional capacity | "Desired Fractional Unutilized (Unlit) Capacity"= 0.9 ~ Dmnl ~ What fraction of Undersea Cable Capacity do those in governance want to \ maintain as unutilized | Effect of Number of Stakeholders on Time to Decide( [(0,0)-(1000,20)],(0,1),(2,1.1),(4,2),(8,5),(18.3299,9.33333),(30.5499,10.6667),(54.9898\ ,12.4762),(100,14),(500,15),(1000,15)) ~ Dmnl ~ Multiplier to normail time for decision as stakeholders grow | Percentage Monthly Change in Internet Traffic due to Current Internet Activities= 5.02 ~ 1/Month ~ Percentage monthly grwoth or decline in the Internet Traffic Parameter for \ tuning the experimental exponential growth in Internet Traffic. | Investment in Undersea Cables= INTEG ( Undersea Cables Investment Rate, Initial Investment in Undersea Cable) ~ Dollar ~ Total investment in Undersea Cables | Normail Time to Invest in Undersea Cable=
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6 ~ Month ~ Normail time it takes to invest the required amount in undersea cable | Rate of Increase in Utilized International Bandwidth= Used International Bandwidth * Percentage Monthly Change in Internet Traffic due to Current Internet Activities\ /100 ~ Tbps/Month ~ Total monthly increase in Internet Traffic | Used International Bandwidth= INTEG ( Rate of Increase in Utilized International Bandwidth, Initial Bandwidth Usage) ~ Tbps ~ Total Internet Traffic | Undersea Cable Total Capacity= INTEG ( Technology Investment Yield Rate, Initial Total Capacity of Undersea Cables) ~ Tbps ~ Total Global Capacity of the Undersea Cable. | Undersea Cables Investment Rate= Actual Investment in Undersea Cables/Time to Invest in Undersea Cables ~ Dollar/Month ~ Average Investment in Undersea Cable per Month | Unit Technology Investment Yield= 9e-10 ~ Tbps/Dollar ~ What capacity can be installed for a dollar | ******************************************************** .Control ********************************************************~ Simulation Control Parameters | FINAL TIME = 480 ~ Month ~ The final time for the simulation. | INITIAL TIME = 0 ~ Month ~ The initial time for the simulation. | SAVEPER =
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TIME STEP ~ Month [0,?] ~ The frequency with which output is stored. | TIME STEP = 0.0625 ~ Month [0,?] ~ The time step for the simulation. | ! !
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