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The Doctorate: Policies and StatisticsNico Cloete and Johann Mouton
NRF and Carnegie ConveningPretoria,
28-29 October 2013
Figure 1: The rise of doctorates (1998–2006)
Growth in PhD graduates in South Africa: 1920 - 2011
3
Source: Garbers (1960), DNO (1982), DoE (1999), DHET (2013)
Average annual growth rate of PhD graduates, for the period 1920 – 2011
4
Source: Garbers (1960), DNO (1982), DoE (1999), DHET (2013)
Policy Frameworks in SA
1. Policies: Implementation strategies – Symbolic (compensatory legitimation)
2. Incentives: direct – indirect3. National – institutional (development- support- incentives)
Policy Moments in SA
• 1996 – NCHE report, Green and White Paper (1997)• 2000 – CHE Differentiation report, NPHE (2001)• 2004 – mergers of intuitions and funding linked to enrolment
planning • 2008 – new funning framework fully operational, end of
Programme Qualification Mix reviews • 2011 – latest accredited HEMIS data, and start of Green
Paper and NDP 2030 process.
Policy Goals to Strengthening the Doctorate1. Doctoral enrolment must grow – absent in NCHE, symbolic in
White Paper, stronger in National Plan and strong funding from 2008 (ranging from $40 000 to $60 000 per student/graduate).Priority in NDP 2030 with graduate targets (from 1500 to 5000 in 2030. Focus on SET and business management.
2. Output efficiency must improve - from 1997 focus on efficiency in general, 2008 funding weak on efficiency, 2012 Green Paper and NDP much more explicit (throughput of 75%). CHET and CREST performance and efficiency indicators (symbolic)
3. Academic staff must have PhD - Financial and Fiscal
Commission (2012) and NDP (increase from 35% to 75%)
4. Internationalisation - NPHE (2001) and Green Paper (2012) encourages post graduate recruitment, particularly SADC
5. Differentiation – policy covert/ambiguous, funding explicit
Comparison of enrolments and graduates, 1996 to 2011
7
Source: DoE (1999), SAPSE; DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013)
Average shares of the doctoral graduates in the various fields of study, 1996 to 2011
8
Source: DoE (1999), SAPSE; DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013)
Progress of 2004 intakes of new doctoral students after 7 years, according to bands of performance
9
10
Comparison of international PhD completion rates
Country Period of analysis
Norway (2002/3 cohort)
8 years
United States(1992/3/4)
10 years
Canada(2001 cohort)
9 years
United Kingdom(1996/7 cohort)
7 years
South Africa(2004 cohort)
7 years
International
(FT & PT)
(PT)
(FT)
(FT & PT)
(FT & PT)
International
(FT & PT)
(FT & PT)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
52%
46%
34%
71%
61%
71%
67%
57%
76%
Completion Rate
Percentage of the academic staff with doctorates by institution, 2011
11
Source: DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013)
Ratios of doctoral graduates to academic staff with doctoral degrees by institution, 2011
12
Source: DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013
Comparison of PhD production in South Africa with a number of selected OECD countries, 2000 and 2011
13
Country
2011 SET PhD graduates as % of
all 2011 PhD graduates
Average annual growth rate in
total PhDs 2000 - 2011
Population
2011 SET PhD graduates per
100,000 of 2011 population
2011 total PhD graduates per
100,000 of 2011 population
2011
Australia 58.4% 4.7% 22 324 000 15.9 27.2Canada 62.8% 3.3% 34 483 980 10.3 16.5Czech Republic
61.8% 9.6% 10 496 670 14.5 23.5Finland 61.2% -0.2% 5 388 272 21.1 34.4Germany 72.5% 0.5% 81 797 670 24.2 33.4Hungary 52.9% 5.1% 9 971 726 6.5 12.4Ireland 64.1% 10.1% 4 576 748 20.3 31.6Italy 63.8% 11.1% 60 723 570 11.8 18.6Korea 59.7% 6.0% 49 779 440 14.0 23.4Norway 63.9% 6.4% 4 953 000 16.7 26.2Portugal 52.1% 3.5% 10 557 560 11.4 21.9Slovak Republic
52.0% 12.8% 5 398 384 16.1 31.0Switzerland 68.5% 2.2% 7 912 398 30.1 44.0Turkey 55.7% 7.4% 73 950 000 3.5 6.3United Kingdom
59.9% 5.1% 61 761 000 19.5 32.5United States
55.4% 4.5% 311 591 900 13.0 23.4South Africa 54.2% 4.5% 51 770 560 1.6 3.0
Source: OECD (2013) Graduates by field of study, data extracted on 4 July 2013.
14
Doctoral enrolments by race, 1996 to 2011
Source: DoE (1999) & DHET (2013)
Progress of the 2004 cohort of new doctoral entrants by nationality, gender and race after 7 years
15
Source: DHET (2013). PhD cohort studies.
Doctoral graduates according to nationality as percentage of total doctoral graduates, 2011
16
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
14.8%
4.3% 6.5%
40.1%
66.0%
12.6% 13.2%
25.8%
6.3%
103
632
198
1576
233
68
1040
208
406
99
Figure 4: Masters graduates (2001, 2007, 2011)
Figure 2: Doctoral enrolments at 8 sub-Saharan African universities
(2001, 2007, 2011)
Figure 3: Doctoral graduates at 8 sub-Saharan African universities
(2001, 2007, 2011)
20
Peer reviewed publications 2001, 2007, 2011
Cape Town Makerere Nairobi Ghana Botswana Dar es Salaam
Mauritius Eduardo Mondlane
700
72143
77 69 49 23 15
1017
233
10561
10660 36 23
1517
382
198 170108 90 63 46
2001 2007 2011
Publications (Web of Science, 2010)
21
20
08
20
09
20
10
232
338
381
122 129
169
90 91 89
Makerere Ghana Dar es Salaam
Eduard
o M
ondla
ne
Mauri
tius
Dar
es
Sala
am
Bots
wana
Ghana
Nair
obi
Make
rere
UC
T45 62 89 107
169 198
381
1516No. of publications % SET
African Flagship Universities: Strengthening Knowledge Production
1. Except for UCT and Makerere, there is an increasing pipeline problem between masters and the doctorate
2. Doctorate output, with the exception of UCT, is very low and this will affect the ability of the institution to publish in international journals
3. Apart from UCT, the flagship universities do not seem to have enough senior staff at the professoriate level to provide research leadership
Figure 5: External pressures on doctorate production in SA
Projects
Ford Foundation project called ‘The Successful Cultivation of Social Science and HumanitiesDoctoral Scholarship in South Africa’ led by Professor Cheryl de La Rey. Funding to the Centre of Higher Education Transformation (CHET) from theCarnegie Corporation for a project titled ‘Transformation in South Africa Through aCollaborative Book Project’. (The book from this project to be titled Knowledge Productionin South African Higher Education by Nico Cloete, Peter Maassen, Tebogo Moja and JohannMouton, is scheduled for publication in mid-2014.)1. to provide research leadership
African Flagship Universities: Strengthening Knowledge Production
1. Except for UCT and Makerere, there is an increasing pipeline problem between masters and the doctorate
2. Doctorate output, with the exception of UCT, is very low and this will affect the ability of the institution to publish in international journals
3. Apart from UCT, the flagship universities do not seem to have enough senior staff at the professoriate level to provide research leadership