IT Trends

8 IT Pro January/February 2014 P u b l i s h e d b y t h e I E E E C o m p u t e r S o c i e t y 1520-9202/14/$31.00 © 2014 IEEE

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EDITOR: Irena Bojanova, University of Maryland University College, irena.bojanova@umuc.edu

The Digital Revolution: What’s on the Horizon?

A hallmark of capitalism is the ability to gener-ate and adopt torrents of technical innovations—

a fact noted by both its sternest critics (such as Karl Marx) and its most ardent admirers (such as Friedrich von Hayek).1 Long waves of innovations have led to mecha-nization, electrification, motoriza-tion, and the Industrial Revolu-tion. Technically superior models of production have brought dra-matic improvements in productiv-ity and higher profits to innovative entrepreneurships. The inevitable structural changes and the chal-lenges associated with structural adjustments have led to new in-dustrial standards, safety regula-tions, intellectual property rights, and education and training.1

Disruptive IT innovations—such as the Internet, social me-dia, mobile phones and apps, cloud computing, big data, e-com-merce, and the consumerization of IT—have already had a trans-formational effect on production, services, and business processes around the world. A constellation of new technologies—including smartdust, quantum computing,

brain-computer interfaces, autono-mous vehicles, and 3D printing—are emerging as nondiscrete, deeply interdependent events. Virtual and physical IT worlds are being inte-grated into computer-driven, lean-er, and smarter manufacturing, healthcare, and construction envi-ronments, which are expected to transform long-standing business models and current trade patterns.

The ongoing Digital Revolution and new techno-economic para-digms will challenge organizations and individuals to redefine and upgrade their systems, acquire new skills, and foster new mindsets.

Emerging TechnologiesThe diffusion of major technical and organizational innovations is about to profoundly change econo-my’s structure, people’s occupation and skill profiles, and management systems.1 Important questions re-lated to this new wave of the Digital Revolution deserve further exami-nation. What new industries and businesses will emerge? Will there be significant changes in the na-ture of employment? Will there be significant social transformations and grounds for social unrest? Will

there be a quest for new economic models?

Tables 1–4 present the new tech-nologies driving this revolution, grouped according to the amount of time it will take for the technolo-gy to experience widespread adop-tion (the lists of technologies in the tables are adapted from Gartner’s “Hype Cycle for Emerging Tech-nologies”2). IT professionals should be familiar with these technologies and their potential and limitations, so we can adopt them in a timely manner and exploit them to devel-op smart, innovative applications.

IT Trends: The NexusThe “Nexus of Forces”—that is, the convergence and mutual rein-forcement of social media, mobile computing, cloud computing, and information (big data)3—continues to evolve as it combines with the In-ternet of Things (IoT). Social media and mobile apps provide a platform for effective social and business in-teractions, while the cloud offers a convenient and cost-effective com-putational and information delivery infrastructure. The integration of these forces is rapidly decreasing the gap between ideas and actions

Irena Bojanova, University of Maryland University College

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through near-global connectiv-ity, pervasive mobility, industrial-strength computing services, and instant access to vast amounts of information. Our world is being re-shaped, dramatically transforming how we live and work. New busi-ness and personal opportunities are emerging that will extend our ability to reach out to customers, patients, employees, and society members.

Cloud computing platforms can host a set of application services, and rich applications can be ac-cessed by thin clients such as mo-bile devices through the Internet. To keep pace with mobile device diversity, policies on employee-owned hardware usage must be thoroughly reviewed, updated, and extended, while balancing flexibil-ity with confidentiality and privacy requirements. Current policies for accessing organizations’ networks only through organization-owned and -managed devices should evolve to accommodate the growing

variety of devices, computing styles, user contexts, and interaction paradigms.

The idea of everybody having their own personal computer is being reborn as everyone having their own personal cloud. Users can decide what data to store on the cloud and with whom they want to share it. They can also decide what apps to run on the cloud and what terms of service to use. This is driving a power shift, away from personal devices toward personal services, where no device is a pri-mary hub. The personal cloud of-fers secure data storage and access through personally managed or vendor-managed hosting.

The IoT provides ways for interac-tion between machines, people, and organizations. Through massively connected devices, organizations and people have access to huge amounts of information about their environ-ment and selves. The Internet is expanding beyond computers and

mobile devices to include enterprise assets, such as field equipment and robots, and consumer items, such as cars and  TVs.4

Prospects and ImplicationsHybrid clouds are evolving, moving from integrating internal private clouds and public cloud services toward bringing together personal clouds and external private ser-vices. Private clouds will have to be designed to handle future service aggregation, integration, interoper-ability, and customization. Organi-zations implementing such clouds should be ready to handle overdraft-ing and cloudbursting and be pre-pared to act as cloud service brokers.

With the emergence of smart machines, cognitive computing, and the IoT, the relationship be-tween humans and machines is evolving. Humans and machines will be working together, bringing emotional intelligence and ability to handle the unknown together

Table 1. Emerging technologies with more than 10 years to widespread adoption.2

Technology Description

Bioacoustic sensing (skinput)

Uses human skin as a finger-input surface. Tapping the skin creates distinct acoustic locations of signals due to variations in bone density and size, and different filtering effects created by soft tissues and joints. Sensing devices capture, analyze, and process the signals.

Smartdust Tiny micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS), such as sensors, actuators, and robots that can detect light, temperature, vibration, magnetism, or chemicals in their vicinity to perform tasks. They operate wirelessly.

Quantum computing Uses atomic quantum states to dramatically affect computation. Quantum bits (qubits) can hold all possible states simultaneously—this is known as superposition. Data held in qubits is affected by data held in other qubits, even when physically separated—this is called entanglement.

Brain-computer interface Direct communication pathway between brain and external devices. Could be used by severely disabled people to assist, augment, or repair human cognitive or sensory-motor functions.

Human augmentation Cognitive and physical improvements to humans, augmenting their natural abilities—for example, limb prosthetics that exceed natural human performance.

Volumetric and holographic displays

3D visual representations of objects with spherical viewing—the image changes as the viewer moves around.

Neurobusiness Uses insights from neuroscience to improve outcomes in customer interactions and business decision making.

Internet of Things Internet-style network that connects anything that has an assigned IP address and provides ways for interactions between machines, people, and organizations.

Mesh networks Virtual wireless backbones that connect sensor nodes. Each node captures and disseminates its own data and serves as a relay for other nodes. The networks lack centralized access points.

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with productivity and speed. For example, oncologists will be using IBM’s Watson to help fight cancer.5

Furthermore, human perfor-mance will be improved with

wearable augmentation devices. For example, sophisticated wearables will capture what a customer feels through biorhythmic responses. In some cases, robots will entirely

replace humans, automating both physical and mental processes. For  example, contextually aware, intelligent, virtual personal assis-tants will help customers make

Table 2. Emerging technologies that have 5 to 10 years until widespread adoption.2

Technology Description

3D bio-printing Use of 3D printing to produce living tissue and human organs.

Electrovibration Electrical charges on touchscreens simulate feeling of vibration and friction, mimicking shapes, textures, and contours. The periodic electrostatic force deforms skin on the finger, duping touch receptors into perceiving texture.

Affective computing Uses sensors to recognize, interpret, process, simulate, and respond to human affects (joy, anger, grief, fear, love, loathing, desire), acknowledging the emotional states of customers, students, or employees.

Autonomous vehicles Vehicles capable of sensing their environment, driving themselves, and navigating without human input or assistance.

Biochips Arrays of molecular sensors arranged on small surfaces (miniaturized laboratories) used to perform thousands of simultaneous biochemical reactions in seconds using microfluidic MEMS technology.

3D scanners Devices that capture data about real-world objects’ shape and appearance (such as color) to construct digital, 3D models.

Mobile robots Robots capable of moving around in their environment.

Speech-to-speech translation

Conversational, spoken phrases are instantly translated and spoken aloud in another language.

Natural-language question and answering

A question in plain language is analyzed and a meaningful response is provided.

Big data High-volume, -velocity and -variety information assets, demanding cost-effective, innovative forms of processing.

Wearable user interfaces Interface devices worn on the human body (such as a wrist-mounted screen, head-mounted display, computer-ready clothing and smart fabrics) to enable mobility and hands-free/eyes-free activities.

Consumer 3D printing Additive printing: deposit resin, plastic, or another material, layer by layer, to build up a physical model.

Inkjet printing: image successive layers of plastic powder, hardening each layer on contact.

Gamification Use of game mechanics to motivate and drive engagement in nongame contexts and to change audience behaviors to achieve desired outcomes.

Complex-event processing

Incoming data about events is distilled into higher level data to provide insight into what’s happening. Used for highly demanding, continuous-intelligence applications that enhance situation awareness and support real-time decisions.

Content analytics Processes digital content (documents, blogs, news sites, audio and text customer conversations, and social network discussions) and users’ behavior in consuming content to derive answers to specific questions.

Augmented reality Real-time use of information in the form of text, graphics, audio, and other virtual enhancements supplemented with real-world objects to enhance users’ interaction with their environment.

Machine-to-machine communication

Autonomous communication between machines (mechanical, electromechanical, and electronic devices).

Mobile health monitoring

Uses wearable and Bluetooth-enabled medical devices to monitor patients’ vital signs.

Virtual reality Computer-generated 3D virtual environment that simulates physical presence in places in the real or imagined world.

Consumer telematics Refers to user-targeted, vehicle-centric information and communication technologies and services such as emergency assistance, GPS navigation, traffic information, and local search.

Prescriptive analytics Helps determine the best course of action for given objectives, requirements, and constraints.

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decisions, driverless-cars will refill inventories as needed, and futur-istic drones might deliver online orders or scan for sharks to pro-tect ocean swimmers.

Machines promise faster and cheaper ways of performing what humans do, which could quickly destroy established companies and trigger structural changes and ad-justments in the economy. As ma-chines become smarter, however, we must learn how to balance humans’ efforts and machines’

computational intelligence; we don’t want to remove humans from the decision-making process.

The Digital Revolution will be boosted by the mass adop-tion of 3D printing, which pro-vides a more widely accessible way of producing digital models and physical goods. It will help reduce costs through improved designs and streamlined proto-typing, but the ease of use will in-evitably cause loss in intellectual property, which might increase

economic conflicts and foster po-litical debates.

3D bio-printing will also affect society and people’s lives and pres-ent tremendous business opportu-nities. Significant advancements in the area of printing bones, tissues, and organs for replacement will bring down mortality rates, lowering the wait time for organs and ideally eliminating organ-compatibility is-sues. However, as useful as produc-ing living tissue and human organs could be, it will also give rise to

Table 3. Emerging technologies that have 2 to 5 years until widespread adoption.2

Technology Description

Quantified self Self-monitoring and self-sensing aspects of daily life in terms of inputs (consumed food, quality of surrounding air), states (mood, arousal, blood oxygen level), and performance (mental and physical).

In-memory database management systems

Data is stored in main memory (instead on disk) for faster and more predictable performance through simpler internal optimization algorithms and execution of fewer CPU instructions.

Virtual assistants Computer-generated visual characters that simulate conversations and interact with users or customers through voice- or text-based conversation.

Near-field communication (NFC)

Wireless technology with operating distance of up to 10 cm that enables a variety of proximity-based applications for smartphones and similar devices—for example, contactless data exchange, transactions, and device pairing.

Cloud computing Enables convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction.

Gesture controls Uses hand gestures and facial expressions to generate control signals.

Activity streams Lists of recent activities per person, typically on a single website.

Enterprise 3D printing Additive printing: deposit resin, plastic, or another material, layer by layer, to build up a physical model.

Inkjet printing: image successive layers of plastic powder, hardening each layer on contact.

Biometric authentication Uses biometric characteristics or traits to verify users’ claimed identities.

Speech recognition Recognition and conversion of human speech into text or commands (for self-service and call routing; speech to desktop text entry; form filling or voice mail transcription; user interface control and content navigation on mobile devices, PCs, and in-car systems).

Table 4. Emerging technologies with less than two years to widespread adoption.2

Technology Description

In-memory analytics Querying data in RAM (as opposed to querying data stored on physical disks) to enable extremely fast analytic operations.

Location intelligence Use of geographic relationships inherent in all information, combining geographic- and location-related data with other business data to organize and understand complex phenomena.

Predictive analytics Area of data mining that deals with extracting information from data and using it to predict trends and behavior patterns.

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waves of societal and regulatory de-bates—for example, athletes might try to enhance their performance by adding 3D-printed muscle tissue. Also, a longer life expectancy will lead to an increase in the optimal retirement age.6

F uture installments of this Trends department will feature articles addressing

the effect of the ongoing Digital Revolution. Each article will be devoted to a particular industry segment, focusing on disrup-tive technologies with major im-pacts on that industry and IT professionals. The articles will also examine the current state of technology, potential disruptive changes, opportunities for new businesses, important societal

impacts, and the inevitable risks of late adoption.

References 1. C. Freeman and F. Louçã, As Time

Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution, Oxford University Press, 2001.

2. “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technol-ogies,” Gartner, 9 Aug. 2013; www.gartner.com/doc/2571624.

3. “The Nexus of Forces: Social, Mobile, Cloud and Information,” Gartner, 14 June 2012; www.gartner.com/doc/2049315.

4. “Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Stra-tegic Technology Trends for 2014,” Gartner, 8 Oct. 2013; www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2603623.

5. “Watson Is Helping Doctors Fight Cancer,” IBM, 2013, www-03.ibm.com/innovation/us/watson/watson_ in_healthcare.shtml.

6. S. Coatney et al., 3D Bio-Printing, Fung Inst., UC Berkley, tech. report 2013.04.17, 2013; http://funginstitute.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/3D_Bio- Printing.pdf.

Irena Bojanova is a professor and program director of information and technology systems at the University of Maryland University College (UMUC). You can read her cloud computing blog at www.computer.org/portal/web/Irena-Bo-janova. Contact her at irena.bojanova@umuc.edu.

Selected CS articles and

columns are available for free at

http://ComputingNow.computer.org.

Techno logy So lu t ions fo r the Ente rpr i s e

May/June 2013

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INNOVATIVE and

DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES

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