China's Foreign Trade: a whole view

The development of China’s trade and China’s trade surplus

1.1.1 The development of China’s trade after the reform and opening up

Since the reform and opening up of China in 1978, China's foreign trade volume began to increase year by year.

During this period, driven by the globalization of economy, world trade volume grew at a rapid pace. However, the growth of China's export was so fast that the share of China's export in world trade continuously rose.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Total forei gn trade Total trade i n goods Total trade i n servi ces

China’s foreign trade in 1982-2011

1.1.2 China’s trade surplus and its causes

Year Total Exports Imports Balance

1978

206 98 109 -11

1980

381 181 200 -19

Table: China’s foreign trade,1978-2010 ($ billion）

  Total trade Trade in goods Trade in Services

Years Export Import Balance Export Import Balance Export Import Balance

1982 248.0 211.5 36.5 223.2 192.9 30.4 24.8 18.7 6.1

1983 246.9 232.3 14.6 222.3 213.9 8.4 24.7 18.4 6.3

1984 289.2 300.4 -11.2 261.4 274.1 -12.7 27.8 26.3 1.5

1985 302.8 445.1 -142.4 273.5 422.5 -149.0 29.3 22.6 6.6

1986 345.5 449.3 -103.8 309.4 429.0 -119.6 36.1 20.3 15.9

1987 436.7 455.5 -18.8 394.4 432.2 -37.8 42.3 23.4 19.0

1988 522.4 585.9 -63.6 475.2 552.7 -77.5 47.2 33.3 14.0

1989 569.9 627.2 -57.3 525.4 591.4 -66.0 44.5 35.7 8.8

1990 678.4 574.6 103.8 620.9 533.5 87.5 57.5 41.1 16.4

1991 787.7 677.3 110.5 719.1 637.9 81.2 68.6 39.4 29.3

1992 940.5 897.9 42.6 849.4 805.9 43.6 91.1 92.1 -1.0

1993 1027.4 1155.2 -127.9 917.4 1039.6 -122.2 109.9 115.6 -5.7

1994 1373.6 1314.0 59.6 1210.1 1156.2 53.9 163.5 157.8 5.7

1995 1672.1 1567.2 104.9 1487.8 1320.8 167.0 184.3 246.3 -62.0

1996 1716.2 1612.0 104.1 1510.5 1388.3 122.2 205.7 223.7 -18.0

1997 2073.0 1700.9 372.0 1827.9 1423.7 404.2 245.0 277.2 -32.2

1998 2075.9 1667.0 408.9 1837.1 1402.4 434.8 238.8 264.7 -25.9

1999 2211.0 1966.7 244.3 1949.3 1657.0 292.3 261.7 309.7 -48.0

Table: China’s foreign trade development ( 1982-2011， 100 million U.S. dollars)

2000 2793.5 2609.5 184.0 2492.0 2250.9 241.1 301.5 358.6 -57.1

2001 2990.0 2825.9 164.1 2661.0 2435.5 225.5 329.0 390.3 -61.3

2002 3649.8 3412.5 237.3 3256.0 2951.7 304.3 393.8 460.8 -67.0

2003 4846.0 4676.1 169.9 4382.3 4127.6 254.7 463.7 548.5 -84.8

2004 6553.8 6328.3 225.5 5933.3 5612.3 321.0 620.6 716.0 -95.5

2005 8358.6 7431.3 927.4 7619.5 6599.5 1020.0 739.1 831.7 -92.6

200610604.

08917.9 1686.1 9689.8 7914.6 1775.2 914.2 1003.3 -89.1

200713421.

110853.

72567.4 12204.6 9561.2 2643.4 1216.5 1292.5 -76.0

200815771.

412905.

72865.7 14306.9

11325.7

2981.3 1464.5 1580.0 -115.6

200913302.

111640.

31661.8 12016.1

10059.2

1956.9 1286.0 1581.1 -295.1

201017480.

715872.

71608.0 15778.2

13951.0

1827.3 1702.5 1921.7 -219.3

201120808.

119800.

11008.0 18983.8

17434.8

1549.0 1824.3 2365.3 -541.0

  Imports and exports (%) exports (%) Imports (%)

Stage Goods&Services Goods Services

Goods&Services Goods Services

Goods&Services Goods Services

1982-2011

16.11 16.07 16.45

15.91 15.96 15.40

16.35 16.20 17.51

1982-1990

11.79 12.01 9.52

11.83 12.04 9.80

11.75 11.97 9.14

1991-2001

13.35 12.78 18.81

12.90 12.63 15.32

13.87 12.95 23.18

2002-2011

19.12 19.35 17.23

19.01 19.28 16.57

19.22 19.44 17.77

Table: The average growth rate of China’s foreign trade at different stages

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Total t rade surpl us Trade i n goods surpl us Trade i n servi ces surpl us

Balance of China’s foreign trade (surplus and deficit) in 1982-2011

1.2 China’s foreign exchange reserves

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Years Foreign exchange GDPPercentage（ %）

1994 516.2 5592.2 9.231995 735.97 7280.1 10.111996 1050.29 8560.8 12.271997 1398.9 9526.5 14.681998 1449.59 10194.6 14.221999 1546.75 10832.8 14.282000 1655.74 11984.7 13.822001 2121.65 13248.1 16.012002 2864.07 14538.3 19.702003 4032.51 16409.6 24.572004 6099.32 19316.4 31.582005 8188.72 22569 36.282006 10663.44 27129.5 39.312007 15282.49 34940.6 43.742008 19460.3 45218.3 43.042009 23991.52 49912.6 48.072010 28473.38 59305.3 48.012011 31811.48 73185 43.47

Table: China’s foreign exchange (1994-2011, 100 million U.S. dollars)

  GDP Total exports and imports Trade in goods Trade in services

Years   Total Dependence (%) Total Dependenc

e (%) Total Dependence(%)

1982 2031.8 459.5 22.6% 416.1 20.5% 43.4 2.1%1983 2284.6 479.2 21.0% 436.2 19.1% 43.1 1.9%1984 2574.3 589.7 22.9% 535.5 20.8% 54.2 2.1%1985 3066.7 747.9 24.3% 696.0 22.7% 51.9 1.7%1986 2978.3 794.8 26.7% 738.5 24.8% 56.4 1.9%1987 2703.7 892.2 33.0% 826.5 30.6% 65.7 2.4%1988 3095.2 1108.3 35.8% 1027.8 33.2% 80.5 2.6%1989 3439.7 1197.1 34.8% 1116.8 32.5% 80.3 2.3%1990 3569.4 1253.0 35.1% 1154.4 32.3% 98.6 2.8%1991 3794.7 1465.0 38.6% 1357.0 35.8% 108.0 2.8%1992 4226.6 1838.4 43.5% 1655.3 39.2% 183.2 4.3%1993 4405.0 2182.6 49.5% 1957.0 44.4% 225.6 5.1%1994 5592.2 2687.6 48.1% 2366.2 42.3% 321.4 5.7%1995 7280.1 3239.3 44.5% 2808.6 38.6% 430.6 5.9%1996 8560.8 3328.2 38.9% 2898.8 33.9% 429.4 5.0%1997 9526.5 3773.9 39.6% 3251.6 34.1% 522.3 5.5%1998 10194.6 3743.0 36.7% 3239.5 31.8% 503.5 4.9%1999 10832.8 4177.6 38.6% 3606.3 33.3% 571.3 5.3%

Table: China’s Dependence upon Foreign Trade(100 million U.S. dollars ,%)

2000 11984.7 5403.0 45.1% 4743.0 39.6% 660.0 5.5%

2001 13248.1 5815.8 43.9% 5096.5 38.5% 719.3 5.4%

2002 14538.3 7062.3 48.6% 6207.7 42.7% 854.6 5.9%

2003 16409.6 9522.2 58.0% 8509.9 51.9% 1012.3 6.2%

2004 19316.4 12882.1 66.7% 11545.6 59.8% 1336.6 6.9%

2005 22569.0 15789.9 70.0% 14219.1 63.0% 1570.8 7.0%

2006 27129.5 19521.9 72.0% 17604.4 64.9% 1917.5 7.1%

2007 34940.6 24274.8 69.5% 21765.7 62.3% 2509.1 7.2%

2008 45218.3 28677.1 63.4% 25632.6 56.7% 3044.5 6.7%

2009 49912.6 24942.4 50.0% 22075.4 44.2% 2867.1 5.7%

2010 59305.3 33353.4 56.2% 29729.2 50.1% 3624.2 6.1%

2011 73185.0 40608.3 55.5% 36418.7 49.8% 4189.6 5.7%

1.3 More trade frictions between China and its main export markets

1.3.1 The structure and shares of China’s export markets

Country/Region

2002 2003 200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0 2011 2012.1-9

Japan 14.88

13.56

12.39

11.02

9.46 8.38 8.1 8.1

5 7.67 7.81 7.52

Four Asian Dragons

26.89

26.07

26.11

25.30

25.16

24.06

22.57

22.51

22.13

22.21 23.08

EU 2.14 16.47

18.06

18.86

19.20

20.09

20.47

19.66

19.73

18.75 16.75

ASEAN 7.24 7.06 7.23

7.27

7.36 7.72 7.98 8.8

5 8.76 8.96 9.68

America 21.48

21.10

21.06

21.38

21.00

19.07

17.63

18.38

17.96

17.09 17.26

Russia 1.08 1.38 1.53

1.73

1.63 2.33 2.31 1.4

6 1.88 2.05 2.18

Africa 2.14 2.32 2.33

2.45

2.75 3.06 3.55 3.9

7 3.80 3.85 4.16

Latin America 2.91 2.71 3.0

73.11

3.72 4.22 5.00 4.7

5 5.82 6.41 6.74

Table: China’s main export markets (%) The Four Tigers include Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia.

Country/Region

2002 2003 200

4200

5200

62007

2008

2009

2010 2011 2012.

1-9

Japan 14.88

13.56

12.39

11.02

9.46 8.38 8.1 8.1

5 7.67 7.81 7.52

Four Asian Dragons

26.89

26.07

26.11

25.30

25.16

24.06

22.57

22.51

22.13

22.21 23.08

EU 2.14 16.47

18.06

18.86

19.20

20.09

20.47

19.66

19.73

18.75 16.75

ASEAN 7.24 7.06 7.23

7.27

7.36 7.72 7.98 8.8

5 8.76 8.96 9.68

America 21.48

21.10

21.06

21.38

21.00

19.07

17.63

18.38

17.96

17.09 17.26

Russia 1.08 1.38 1.53

1.73

1.63 2.33 2.31 1.4

6 1.88 2.05 2.18

Africa 2.14 2.32 2.33

2.45

2.75 3.06 3.55 3.9

7 3.80 3.85 4.16

Latin America 2.91 2.71 3.0

73.11

3.72 4.22 5.00 4.7

5 5.82 6.41 6.74

Table: China’s main export markets (%) The Four Tigers include Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia.

Country

/Region

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

ASEAN

- 9.9 9.5 10.2 11.5 11.2 11.4 11.3 11.3 10.3 10.6 11.1

European Union

13.9 13.9 14.6 13.1 12.9 12.1 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.7 12.7 12.1

Four

Dragon

s

24.2 25.1 26.8 28.6 27.6 27.2 27.3 25.9 24.6 21.9 21.4 20.85

Four

Tigers

3.4 5.8 6.8 7.7 8.4 8.2 8.4 8.6 9.1 8.1 8.2 8.6

Japan

22.0 18.4 17.6 18.1 18.0 16.8 15.2 14.6 14.0 13.3 13.0 12.7

United

States

12.2 10.0 10.8 9.2 8.2 8.0 7.4 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.7 7.3

Table: China’s top import suppliers (%)

Rank Country/Region Volume($ billion)

% Change over 2009

1 United States 38.53 29.2

2 Japan 29.78 30.2

3 Hong Kong of China

23.06 31.8

4 South Korea 20.72 32.6

5 Taiwan of China 14.54 36.9

6 Germany 14.24 34.8

7 Australia 8.81 46.5

8 Malaysia 7.42 42.8

9 Brazil 6.25 47.5

10 India 6.18 42.4

Table: China’s top trade partners, 2010 ($ billion)

Country/Region ExportsGrowth rate

(%)Impor

tsGrowth

rate（ %）American 2581.6 9.6 972.6 7.7

EU 2504.6 -5.61605.

32.1

Hong Kong of China

2241.4 15.1 127 9.1

ASEAN 1447 16.61441.

70.6

Japan 1125.1 4.51362.

5-6.5

Korea 663.3 6.81216.

21.5

Indian 354.9 -4.6 153.6 -11.2Russia 325.8 14.5 336 13.9

Australia 271 10.9 638.9 6.1Taiwan of

China257.5 -3.8 954.6 1.4

Table: China’s trade with major trading partners from January

to September of 2012

1.3.2 More frequent trade frictions with the expansion of China’s exports

1.4 China’s foreign trade performance in the first three quarters of 2012

(I) Imports and exports recorded a low but steady growth, measures to stabilize foreign trade have given initial results.

(II) Exports to developed economies clearly differentiated and exports to emerging markets recorded a fast growing

Country/region

Exports

Change（ %）

Imports

Change（ %）

Trade balance

Total14953.9

7.413470

.84.8 1483.1

EU2504.

6-5.6

1605.3

2.1 899.3

US2581.

69.6 972.6 7.7 1609.0

ASEAN1447.

016.6

1441.7

0.6 5.3

Japan1125.

14.5

1362.5

-6.5 -237.4

China HK2241.

415.1 127.0 9.1 2114.4

South Korea

663.3 6.81216.

21.5 -552.9

Russia 325.8 14.5 336.0 13.9 -10.2China Taiwan

257.5 -3.8 954.6 1.4 -697.1

India 354.9 -4.6 153.6 -11.2 201.3Australia 271.0 10.9 638.9 6.1 -367.9

Table: China’s trade with major partners, 2012.1-9

(US$100m)

(III) Central and western region recorded a sustained and rapid growth in exports despite a slowdown in eastern region

Region Year& item

Total Eastern eleven Central eight Western

twelve

Value ValueShare（ %）

ValueShare（ %）

ValueShare（ %）

2000

Imp & Exp 4743.0

4368.2 92.1 203.1 4.3 171.7 3.6

Exports 2492.0 2268.

8 91.0 124.0 5.0 99.3 4.0

Imports 2250.9 2099.

4 93.3 79.1 3.5 72.4 3.2

2010

Imp & Exp

29740.0

26863.6 90.3

1592.5 5.4

1283.9 4.3

Exports 15777.5

14215.2 90.1 842.2 5.3 720.1 4.6

Imports 13962.4

12648.4 90.6 750.3 5.4 563.7 4.0

2011

Imp & Exp

36420.6

32347.0 88.8

2233.7 6.1

1839.8 5.1

Exports 18986.0

16749.3 88.2

1157.4 6.1

1079.3 5.7

Imports 17434.6

15597.7 89.5

1076.4 6.2 760.5 4.4

2012.1-9

Imp & Exp

28424.7

24894.9 87.6 1839.

7 6.5 1690.1 5.9

Exports 14953.9

12896.6 86.2 997.3 6.7 1060.

1 7.1

Imports 13470.8

11998.3 89.1 842.4 6.3 630.0 4.7

Table: Foreign trade growth in eastern, central and western region since

2000（ US$100m）

Notes： Eleven eastern provinces (cities) include Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong and Hainan； eight central provinces include Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei and Hunan； twelve western provinces ( cities and autonomous region ) include Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang.

(IV) Imports of agricultural products grew rapidly and import growth in electromechanical products dropped

Domestically, a series of policy measures in expanding domestic demand and stabilizing overseas demand have being steadily implemented and began to produce effects, China’s economy on the whole moves smooth. The 18th Congress of the Communist Party of China will further motivate the initiative for accelerating development, and this will be conducive to further promoting a steady and rapid economic growth. China’s economic growth in 2013 is widely expected by IMF and other organizations to outpace that of 2012. However, the foundations of a stable growth remains shaky, growth in domestic demand is conditioned by systematic and institutional obstacles, overcapacity in some sectors remains serious and the enterprises still face greater difficulties in production and operation.