The delights of data:deficiencies in the quagmire?

Angela Druckman and Tim JacksonRESOLVE

University of Surrey

Carbon Accounting Conference

Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

11 March 2009

www.carboncounting.org.uk

Plan

• What are we trying to measure?

• What methods do we use?

• What data do we need?

• What are the problems?

• Recommendations.

What are we trying to measure? Examples:

(a) What are the carbon footprints of different types of households?

(b) What activities do we use our carbon for?

(c) What real progress is being made towards reducing the carbon footprint of UK lifestyles?

The view from different perspectives:

Accounting from different perspectives

Production Perspective• Carbon emissions attributable to UK production;• Used for reporting under Kyoto Protocol;• Territorial basis;• Includes exports, excludes imports;• National Emissions Inventory.

Consumption Perspective• Carbon emissions attributable to UK consumption;• Life-cycle approach;• Includes imports, excludes exports;• Environmental Input-Output Analysis

UK carbon emissions: trends from different accounting perspectives

• Example of some results obtained from the Surrey Environmental Lifestyle Mapping model (SELMA)

o Consumption perspective emissions estimated using a quasi-multi-regional input-output (QMRIO) model.

Trends in UK CO2 emissions from different accounting perspectives

Source: Druckman and Jackson 2008.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Ca

rbo

n d

iox

ide

em

iss

ion

s (

mtC

O2

)

Consumption perspective

Production perspective (according toEnvironmental Accounts)

UNFCCC reporting

Trends in UK CO2 emissions from different accounting perspectives

Source: Druckman and Jackson 2008.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Ca

rbo

n d

iox

ide

em

iss

ion

s (

mtC

O2

)

Production perspective (according toEnvironmental Accounts)

UNFCCC reporting

Trends in UK CO2 emissions from different accounting perspectives

Source: Druckman and Jackson 2008.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Ca

rbo

n d

iox

ide

em

iss

ion

s (

mtC

O2

)

Consumption perspective

Production perspective (according toEnvironmental Accounts)

UNFCCC reporting

Plan

• What are we trying to measure?

• What methods do we use?

• What data do we need?

• What are the problems?

• Recommendations.

• EIO is an economy-wide approach that is used to map carbon emissions through an economy for the purposes accounting from the consumption perspective.

• EIO is based on economic Input-Output Tables which show sales and purchases between industry sectors, and final demand consumption .

• The economic Input-Output Tables are combined with environmental data for each industry sector.

• EIO can be applied to:– resource use such as oil, water, land-use etc.– emissions such as CO2, greenhouse gases, waste etc. 

Environmental Input-Output (EIO) Analysis

Production sectors

1 2 3 n

1

2

3

n

Final demand

I

III

II

Input-Output Framework (a)

Adapted from: Moll et al 2004.

.

Plan

• What are we trying to measure?

• What methods do we use?

• What data do we need?

• What are the problems?

• Recommendations.

Data requirements for Environmental Input-Output Analysis (single region)

-1c = u I - A YFinal

demand

Technical coefficients:

A-Matrix

Carbon emissions attributed to final

demand

Carbon emissions per unit monetary output

Imports and exports

• Estimating the upstream emissions due to imported goods and services presents a challenge.

• Traditionally, EIO models assumed that the technology used for producing imports was the same as domestic technology (the “Domestic Technology Assumption”).

• Much work is currently focusing on developing input-output models in which emissions due to imports are estimated with improved accuracy.

Two-region input-output model with domestic technology assumption

Region 1YA1

u1

Region 2 A1

u1

Quasi-multi-regional input-output (QMRIO) model

Region 2 A1

u2

Region 3 A1

u3

Region 4 A1

u4

Region 5 A1

u5

Region 1YA1

u1

Multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model with uni-directional trade

Region 2 A2

u2

Region 3 A3

u3

Region 4 A4

u4

Region 5 A5

u5

Region 1YA1

u1

Multi-regional input-output model with multi-directional trade

Region 2 A2

u2

Region 3 A3

u3

Region 4 A4

u4

Region 5 A5

u5

Region 1YA1

u1

Plan

• What are we trying to measure?

• What methods do we use?

• What data do we need?

• What are the problems?

• Recommendations.

Sector disaggregation• Every industrial sector is

assumed to be homogenous with regard to its input requirements, the commodity it produces, and the emissions from the firms within the sector.

• Therefore the fewer the sectors, the more errors occur.

Data classifications

• EIO is fraught with data classification issues.

• For example– UK economic datasets are provided in different

classification from the environmental datasets.– Different countries use different classification systems

for their data.

• Cross-mapping between classification systems is therefore required and, as sectors often do not map directly, inaccuracies arise.

Data conversion

• Economic datasets are provided using different price bases (eg Purchasers’ v Basic Prices). Conversion is required – but often incomplete information is available for this.

• Modelling imports requires conversion between different currencies. 2 types of exchange rates:

– Market exchange rates

– Purchasing power parity (PPP)• eliminates the differences in price levels between

countries. • statistical constructs rather than precise measures.• may differ markedly from market exchange rates.

Availability of Input-Output Tables• Production of Input-Output Tables is highly time-intensive and

hence costly. They are therefore produced relatively infrequently. Technical coefficients are assumed to change slowly.

• Under EU regulations, member states are required to produce Input-Output Tables at 5 year intervals (European Commission 2007).

• The availability and disaggregation levels of data for different countries varies. – UK: 123 industrial sectors.

– Scotland:127 sectors. Produced annually since 1998, latest table 2004.

– USA: >400 sectors; latest table 2002.

• International datasets:Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)EXIOPOL project

Plan

• What are we trying to measure?

• What methods do we use?

• What data do we need?

• What are the problems?

• Recommendations.

Recommendation• Up-to-date economic and environmental data are

required in a consistent, compatible and highly disaggregated format.

Recommendations specific to UK• Up- to-date, authorised input-output tables are urgently

required. • Failing this, full information should be disclosed in order for

tables to be produced by other organisations under supervision of the ONS.

• This information should include :– Data on which to calculate final and intermediate demand

in basic prices;– High sectoral disaggregation;– Detailed trade information ie imports and exports of

goods and services to/from world regions/countries at sector level;

– Detailed Supply tables (minimum suppression or privileged access);

– Information on capital investment (gross capital formation) by sectors.

These recommendations are largely in line with those made by Wiedmann et al (2008).

UK as a leader?

http://www.ukwatch.net/files/GordonBrown.jpg

The delights of data:deficiencies in the quagmire?

Angela Druckman and Tim JacksonRESOLVE

University of Surrey

Carbon Accounting Conference

Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

11 March 2009

www.carboncounting.org.uk