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The Current Political Environment and Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Elections
Currently, the polling averages have the Democratic lead on the generic ballot at 8.9 points, down from 11 in mid-December, but still very significant.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
46.237.3
Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate
+8.9
Generic Congressional Ballot Polling Average
CNN Poll – February 26, 2018Democratic Candidate – 54%Republican Candidate – 38%
2
Lessons from 2017 and the 2018 Landscape
Gillespie Exit Polls 2017
YearRegistered
VotersTurnout % Turnout
Republican
Candidate
Democratic
Candidate% Difference
2017 5,529,742 2,614,282 47% 1,175,731 1,409,175 9%
2013 5,240,286 2,253,418 43% 1,013,354 1,069,789 2.5%
• Special elections in 2017 have been a battle of turnout, not persuasion.
• As seen in the 2017 election for Governor in Virginia, coalitions from 2016 remained the same but Democrats had a considerable advantage in energy and turnout.
• 2017 turnout was four percent higher than in 2013.
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A Turnout Election – 2017 Special Elections
• The 2017 special elections have
demonstrated a significant
Democrat swing, averaging a 16
point swing for federal elections.
• Increased Democrat turnout turned
districts with a significant
Republican voter registration
advantage into competitive races.
• This indicates that 2018 elections
will primarily be decided on party
turnout.
4
Current Control of Senate Seats Up in 2018
Typically, an unpopular president will lose seats during midterm elections in both the House and Senate; President Trump remains unpopular.
5
2018 House of Representatives
• There are 12 Democratic House members who hold seats that Donald Trump carried in 2016.
• There are 23 Republican House members who hold seats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016.
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Currently, Democrats have to net 25 seats in order to have a majority of 218 members. In order to do that, Democrats will have to win on Republican territory, which likely requires a Democratic wave to pull off.
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Solid D Likely/Lean D Toss Up Likely/Lean R Solid R
175 23 23 48 166
193 238
Currently
Source: https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
*With 4 Vacancies
2018 U.S. House Ratings
Wave Years Where U.S. House Flipped 2010: Republicans picked up 63 seats2006: Democrats picked up 31 seats1994: Republicans picked up 54 seats
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The Role of Data in Campaigns
The Role of Data in Everyday Life
• Data is exponentially becoming more entrenched in everyone’s lives.
• The number of messages on Twitter grows at around 200 percent a year in 2017 had exceeded 500 million tweets a day, and 200 Billion Tweets per year.
• Worldwide, there are over 1.86 billion monthly active Facebook users which is a 17 percent increase year over year.
• 900 million monthly users of Google’s YouTube service upload over an hour of video every second. There are currently 1.3 Billion viewers worldwide.
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Global Information Access is the New Normal
• By the end of 2016, global Internet traffic reached 1.1 zettabytes per year, and by 2019, global traffic is expected to hit 2 zettabytes per year.
• The equivalent of streaming Netflix's entire catalog 3,177 times.
• If it were all printed in books, they would cover the entire surface of the United States some 104 layers thick.
10
The Fragmentation of Viewing Patterns
• People are becoming increasingly fragmented in their viewing patterns.
• Voters are reading more and more of their news online.
• Modeling must be able to optimize an organization’s reach in cyberspace.
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In 2010:34% answered online31% answered daily newspaper
Understanding Fragmentation: Cord Cutters
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Washington 1,042,735 (24%)Idaho 167,644 (23%)Oregon 556,227 (22%)California 2,504,612 (13%)Nevada 278,246 (18%)Wyoming 37,240 (13%)
What Big Data Is
• Big data is about predictions.
• By using big data, we can predict the cereal you eat in the morning to the stock you invest in.
• Big data can model behaviors and trends of both individuals and universes to create probabilities of future events.
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How we use Big Data
• Big data is not about trying to “teach” a computer to “think” like humans.
• Instead, big data is about computing large quantities of data in order to infer probabilities.
- The probability of whether a person will vote,
- What issue will influence their vote and, ultimately,
- Who they will vote for.
14
Targeting the Right Audience
• Combining multiple variables, a campaign can identify the turnout likelihood and candidate preference for each voter.
• This approach creates specific voter universes for unique targeting.
• Oorlog measure head-to-head effectiveness in a multi-candidate race.
Candidate
Opponent
Swing
Reach
Turnout
Other
1.00
Tu
rno
ut
Sco
re
Ballot Score
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
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Messaging and Persuasion Models
• Using predictive analytics we model the impact of the best messages on each individual voter, donor or consumer.
• This process identifies messages that persuade each movable donor and messages that mobilize.
16
• Politics and campaigns have already been transformed by what is really "medium sized" data.
• But we're now on the precipice of a true "big data" revolution where we can capture every interaction a voter has with a campaign and all of the information they are likely to be receiving about it.
• This data will allow us to predict, customize, and optimize at the voter-by-voter level and make campaigns that use the data well far more effective, efficient, and ultimately successful.
The Future of Campaigning
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• The next frontier in campaigns is going to revolve around big data in real time.
• Simply having traditional polling is not going to have the same efficacy as it did before the speed of social media.
• Just as Amazon recommends purchases at the personal level, so too will the script for canvassers going to door to door in a precinct.
The Next Frontier in Campaigns
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• The future of campaigning is going to be the aggregation of data across multiple platforms at the speed of thought.
• From polling to consulting, every cog seamlessly interacting in real time shaping the most effective digital campaign possible.
Seamless Aggregation of Data
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WPAi used scores and optimization tools
to create 315 field “turfs” for Governor
Abbott
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Ashlee Rich Stephenson(703) 303-6102
For questions or projects, reach out to us anytime.
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