THE CULTURE WAR OVER FOOD AND FARMING: WHO IS WINNING?

Robert Paarlbergrpaarlberg@wellesley.edu

University of WisconsinApril 20, 2012

FUNDAMENTAL DISAGREEMENTS

• Over what farms should look like

• Over the most important challenge to farming

• Over farming’s proper relationship to nature

• Over who should make decisions about food and agriculture

ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE

ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE

Large, specialized farms are OK.

Large, specialized farms are not OK.

WHAT FARMS SHOULD LOOK LIKE

ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE

ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE

Produce much more food by 2050

Preserve traditional rural livelihoods, protect biodiversity, and provide ecosystem services.

THE MOST IMPORTANT CHALLENGE TO FARMING

ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE

ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE

Protect nature by generating high yields, to reduce the area being cropped.

The best systems are those that imitate nature.

FARMING’S PROPER RELATIONSHIP TO NATURE

ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE

ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE

Governments, technical experts, and the market.

Governments, experts, and markets are not to be trusted.

WHO SHOULD MAKE DECISIONS ABOUT AGRICULTURE?

THE CAMP SYMPATHETIC TO CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE

THE CAMP SYMPATHETIC TO ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE

•Commercial Farmers•Agribusiness Companies•Ag Committees of Cong.•Scientists•Economists

• Environmental advocates• Social justice advocates• Anti-corporate activists• Anti-globalization activists• Cultural elites

THE OPPOSING CAMPS

ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE DOMINATES THE CULTURAL MARKETPLACE:

LOCAL FOOD: OUTCOMES IN COMMERCIAL MARKETPLACE

• Number of farmers markets in US has doubled since 1998

• Number of CSA’s has risen from 400 in 2001 to at least 4000 today

• Even so, food sales through farmers markets and CSA’s make up only 4/10 of 1% of all agricultural sales in the United States

ORGANIC FOOD: OUTCOMES IN COMMERCIAL MARKETPLACE

• In 2010, only 4% of food sales organic

• Only 7% of these organic food sales took place at farmers’ markets

• 45% of organic production in just two states, with large, specialized farms

Harvested Organic Cropland in 2008 was 0.51% of the US Total Cropland

Remaining US Cropland Acres,

308,010,736

Harvested Organic Cropland,

1,596,865

Vegetable Crops: Relative YieldsRelative Yields for Organic Vegetables

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Artichokes

Lettuce

Carrots

Spinach

Cabbage

Garlic

Bell Peppers

Celery

Cantaloupes

Onions

Tomatoes

Watermelon

Cauliflower

Potatoes

Broccoli

Squash

Sweet Corn

Snap Beans

Sweet Potatoes

Percent of Overall Average

100%

Row Crops: Relative YieldsRelative Yields for Organic Row Crops

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Safflower

Proso Millet

Sorghum

Spring Whet

Durum Wheat

Rice

Winter Wheat

Peas, lentils etc

Soybeans

Flaxseed

Cotton

Corn

Peanuts

Dry edible beans

Oats

Rye

Canola

Percent of Overall Average

100%

IS CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE FALTERING?

Annual Rate of Growth of TFP1970-90 1991-06

North America 1.49 1.91

Asia 1.51 2.62

FARMING IN USA NO LONGER INPUT-INTENSIVE

VOLUME OF FOOD PRODUCTION

+ 5 PERCENT

LAND AREA FARMED - 4 PERCENT

IRRIG. WATER USE - 9 PERCENT

EXCESS “N” USE - 17 PERCENT

PESTICIDE USE - 5 PERCENT

G. GAS EM. FROM AG

- 3 PERCENT

INCREASE IN TOTAL EN. USE IN AG

1/6 THE RATE OF INCREASE IN REST OF ECONOMY

SUSTAINABILITY GAINS FROM MODERN FARMING IN OECD COUNTRIES, 1990-2004

POST-1980 EMERGENCE OF “PRECISION” CROP FARMING

• More precise irrigation techniques

• More precise fertilizer use

• Reduced pesticide use

• Reduced tillage, saving diesel fuel

GPS Equipped Tractor

Pre-plant Variable Rate Irrigation

GIS MAPPING:INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE

UPTAKE OF PRECISION FARMINGOHIO, 2010

All Farms Big Farms($1 million in sales)

(50% of all sales)MOUNTED GPS

DEVICE30.2% 78.5%

YIELD MONITOR DEVICE

25.3% 79.7%

GEO-REFERENCED SOIL MAPPING

22.7% 55.8%

DRIP IRRIGATION

Home Made Drip Irrigation

REDUCING PESTICIDE USE

• Since 1972, U.S. ban on organochlorine insecticides

• Since 1990s, variable rate application

• Since 1996 introduction of Bt corn and Bt cotton (reducing insecticide use)

• Since 1996 introduction of glyphosate-resistant soybeans (replacing herbicides that are more toxic to animals)

Bt Corn: Protection Against Corn Borer

2010 REPORT FROM EU COMMISSION DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR RESEARCH:

"The main conclusion to be drawn from the efforts of more than 130 research projects, covering a period of more than 25 years of research, and involving more than 500 independent research groups, is that biotechnology, and in particular GMOs, are not per se more risky than, for example, conventional plant breeding technologies."

REDUCED TILLAGE AND CULTIVATION TO SAVE SOIL AND DIESEL FUEL

• 1980s: Machines that seed unplowed fields

• 1990s: Glyphosate-resistant crops that allow reduced mechanical cultivation

Seeding Without Plowing

ABSOLUTE LEVELS OF FARM PRODUCTIVITY

Production Value Per Agricultural Worker

Cereal Production per Hectare of Land

UNITED STATES$45,000 6.6 tons

THAILAND$705

3.0 tons

KENYA $350 1.6 tons

LIVESTOCK FARMING:A SEPARATE ISSUE?

CAFOS

LIVESTOCK FARMING

CAFOs work well for:• Reducing costs to consumers• Reducing the frequency of food contamination

CAFOs work less well for:• Waste disposal• Dependence on antibiotics• Animal welfare

LEGAL, POLITICAL, AND COMMERCIAL ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TO CAFOs

• Court and FDA actions against growth promotion use of antibiotics

• State level bans on gestation crates and small cage space for hens

• Voluntary phase-outs of pork from sow crates by Hormel, Smithfield Foods, Whole Foods, Chipolte, McDonald’s

• Alternative agriculture has recently become dominant in the elite cultural marketplace.

• Conventional crop farming has given up none of its dominance in the commercial marketplace.

• Conventional livestock farming is being forced to accept new restraints from the commercial and political marketplace.

CONCLUSION:WHO IS WINNING?