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The consequences of the climate changes – The Polish case
Toruń, 17.04.2019
Climate changes
2
According to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report the hottest 20 years in history were recorded over the last 22 years
Global temperatures in 2018 were the fourth warmest on record
The world in 2018 was 0.83 oC warmer than the average set between 1951 and 1980
Impact of climate changes in Poland
• More frequent extreme temperatures.• Frequent droughts and related losses in forest production
and increased forest fire risk.• Bigger intensity of precipitation likely to cause floods.• More frequent and intense hurricanes.
• Influence on the occurrence of infestation of pathogenic organisms?
3
14
,3
14
,7 13
,9
13
,6
14
,0
14
,9
14
,2
14
,0
14
,0
13
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14
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14
,3
14
,2
14
,6
14
,3
14
,5
14
,1
16
,3
8,4 9
,2
8,2
8,2
8,2 8,6 9
,2 9,3
8,5
7,4
8,8
8,4
8,4 9
,6 9,7
9,2
8,9 9
,8
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tem
pe
ratu
re (
oC
)
years
sezon weg rok Liniowy (sezon weg) Liniowy (rok)Vegetation season (trend)
Temperature
4
The last 40 years have been the hottest in the history of measurements.
Average air temperature (year and vegetation season) from 2001 to 2018 and trend line
Extreme phenomena have had the greatest impact on climate conditions. The increase of the phenomena ischanging the dynamics of climate characteristics
Vegetation season
Year Year (trend)
54
5
45
7,1
36
2,2
39
4
33
9,6
38
7,5 45
6,2
39
8,8
45
4,7
57
6,2
43
3,9
42
1,5
44
2,4
42
2,7
28
8,4
44
7,1
56
3,9
32
9,3
72
1,2
64
5,5
50
0,1
60
4,5
56
5,8
56
1,3
69
7,8
59
8,8 66
5,3 8
03
,1
55
7,4
60
3,9
63
1
58
8,1
47
5,8
66
8 75
3,1
47
7,3
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
pre
cip
itat
ion
su
m (
mm
)
yearssezon weg rok Liniowy (sezon weg) Liniowy (rok)
5
PrecipitationPrecipitation sum (year and vegetation season) form 2001 to 2018 and trend linePrecipitation shows large dependence on shape
of the landscape. The average precipitation volume is around 600 mm, but precipitation differs from 500 mm in Central Poland to 800 mm at the sea side and over 1000 mm in Tatrymountains.
The highest precipitation volume is in the summer and is 2-3 times higher than in the winter.
The structure of precipitation is changing:
• The rains have become more sudden, abrupt and destructive (they cause violent floods more and more often).
• The same time the precipitation of less than 1 mm/day disappear. Vegetation season Year Vegetation season (trend)
Year (trend)
Impact of climate changes on forest environment
• Droughts
• Fires
• Hurricanes
• Bark beetle
• Sharp-dentated bark beetle
• Mistletoes
6
Drought
The effects of climate changes become visible in the intensified occurrence of extreme weather phenomena (draughts, hurricanes, hails)
Over the last 60 years more frequent droughts have been noted:• In the years 1951-1981 the
droughts have occurs 6 times.• In the years 1982-2011 – 18 times. Fot. K. Czech
7
Fire situation in Poland
• Fire risk categorization;• Forecasting and early detection;• Alarm and dispatch communications network;• Equipment and infrastructure;• Prevention: information and educational
activities.
8
The observation system in State Forests in 2018 consisted of:• 659 protection lookout points;• 7 patrol planes, 35 firefighting planes and 4 helicopters;
Additionally, the forest districts in 2018 had at their disposal :• 355 light fire trucks;• 5 medium firefighting vehicles;• 3 heavy firefighting vehicles; • 257 portable pumps.
fire risk categories
Fire situation in Poland
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Average size of single forest fire is 0,20 ha.
In all the kinds of forests in 2018 there have been 8867 fires covering total area of 2696,13 ha
In the areas governed by State Forests in 2018 there have been 2994 fires, covering total area of 586,44 ha
The number of forest fires and burned out area have risen by 198% and 190% in relations to 2017
Overall number of forest fires and the burned out area in Poland in the years 1990-2017
Number of forest firesBurned out area
years
Nu
mb
er o
f fo
rest
fir
es
Bu
rned
ou
t ar
ea [
ha]
Fire situation in Poland
arson negligence (not intended) unknown reason
10
THE MAIN CAUSES OF FOREST FIRES ARE:
THE FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DUE TO
CLIMATE CHANGE
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The State Forests have an efficient fire detection system and have the necessary means to extinguish them.
The State Forests closely cooperate with the units of the State Fire Service.
Global warming - longer and longer periods of draught.
Accumulation of a significant amount of dry biomass in forests constituting fuel for a potential fire.
Abiotic damage
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Tho
usa
nd
m3
Damage in the State Forest caused by wind and snow in 2006-2018
Since 2005, there have been 11 hurricanes in Poland.
The largest natural disaster in the history of Polish Forests
Damage to almost 60 forest districts in RDSF in Toruń, Gdańsk, Poznań, Szczecinek, Łódź and Wrocław
Total damage in the SF
• Volume of windthrows 9,8 mln m3• Damaged area 79,7 tys. ha• Area for reforestation 39,2 tys. ha
13
Damage caused by windin summer 2017
Strzebielino
38 000
Bydgoszcz
50 150
Żołędowo
15 000
Cewice
58 000
Czerniejewo
100 000
Gniezno
800 000
Gołąbki
182 000
Grotniki
12 190
Jarocin
121 850
Kartuzy
38 000
Kościerzyna
45 000
Lipusz
2 309 040
Lubichowo
25 600
Bytów
650 000
Lutówko
15 000
Oborniki Śląskie
20 000 Oleśnica Śląska
13 000
Osusznica
100 000
Piaski
18 000
Przymuszewo
450 000
Różanna
23 000Runowo
660 000
Rytel
2 000 000
Solec Kujawski
150 000
Szubin
308 500
Tuchola
137 000
Woziwoda
380 000
Zamrzenica
260 000
Żmigród
20 000
Czersk
900 000
14
The growing threat from the sharp-dentated bark beetle
• Secondary pine pest.• Large reproductive potential (last
year, bark beetle has derived 2 main generations and 1 sister).
• Bark beetle attacks top crowns and thin branches.
• Symptoms of settlement are latent.
The pest moves along the belt from the eastern border of Poland towards the west (infestation previously observed in Ukraine).
Basic information:
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Sharp-dentated bark beetle infestation
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2015 2016 2017 2018
Nu
mb
er
of Fo
rest
Districts
Występowanie Zwalczanie Liczba nadleśnictw[ha]
The bark beetle from the accompanying pest has evolved into a dominant one.
Extreme weather conditions (high temperatures and no precipitation during the vegetation period) causing weakening of trees.
Occurrence Eradication No. of Forest Districts
Current sharp-dentated bark beetle infestation areas
2015 2016 2017 2018
występowanie
zwalczanie
16
occurrenceeradication
Eradication area (ha)
occurrenceeradication
Eradication area (ha) Eradication area (ha)Eradication area (ha)
occurrenceeradication
occurrenceeradication
occurrenceeradication
25 244 ha9 240 ha
•Białowieża Forest
•Lower Silesia and Sudetes foothills
•Beskids
•Tatra Mountains
Current bark beetle infestation areas
Area of occurrence and eradication of bark beetle in Poland in 2018
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occurrenceeradication
35 707 ha30 619 ha
Eradication area (ha)
18
The state of bark beetle population and perspectives of development
Weather conditions favourable for development of infestation
Hot and dry summer and warm autumn
• Growth acceleration• Increase of number of
generations (up to 4-5)• Better breeding capabilities• Winterizing under barks in
beetle stadium• Poor spruce resistance
Increasing threat of infestationCurrently the conditions for further development of infestation are fulfilled
Source: IMGW
Mistletoe - a new factor weakening pine stands
• Hemiparasiting of mistletoe means reclaiming host plant water, mineral salts and carbohydrates.
• Mistletoe is especially dangerous for trees during draught.
19
As a consequence the negative influence of mistletoe on attacked plants is noted in the form of: • Reduction of size of canopy as well as
generation of smaller cones and seeds.• Reduction in growth in thickness.
Infected trees are more susceptible to pest attacks and infectious diseases.
Fot. T. Mokrzycki
Mistletoe - a new factor weakening pine stands
20
• One of the most common tree hemiparasite in Europe;• Birds are largely responsible for spreading mistletoe;• The plant's development lasts up to 40 years;• From the beginning of colonization to the maximum infestation
of the tree by mistletoe, it is a period of about 10-15 years
• In 2017 – 1,4 tys. ha of coniferous forests were recorded as massively inhabited by mistletoe.
• In 2018 – there were 23 tys.ha of dying pine forest stands occupied by this organism. Fot. T. Mokrzycki
21
Few facts:• Climate changes not only influence
frequency and intensity of abiotic phenomena but also the scale of observed infestation of harmful organisms;
• Trees weakened by atmospheric factors become an easy target for pathogenic organisms;
• Warm winters and dry, hot summers favour beetles;
• The changes oblige us to modify schemas of activity;
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No action / partial action
• Spontaneous infestation growth;• Large areas dying of forests stands.
Complex action
• Fighting infestation and forest fires;• Adjustment of forest species composition
according to changing conditions.
Forest:
Air filter
Oxygen producer
CO2 absorber
Biodiversity reservoir
Water storage
Water filter
Loss of forest function Preservation of forest function
Dyrekcja Generalna Lasów Państwowych ul. Grójecka 12702-124 [email protected]. 22 58 98 100
Thank you for your attention
Fot. Jan Kowalski, Nadleśnictwo Wzorcowe
