THE CONSEQUENCES OF RAPID POPULATION · PDF fileCross River University of technology, ... experience has assumed more educational, ... The study was within the confines of the Calabar

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Indexed and Abstracted ISSN 2045-8460 (Online) African Journal of Social Sciences ISSN 2045-8452 (Print) Volume 1 Number 2 (2011), pp.84- 94 ww.sachajournals.com

THE CONSEQUENCES OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON HOUSING IN CALABAR METROPOLIS

1EJA, Eja I; 2INAH, Sylvester A; 2YARO, Margaret-A. A; 2INYANG, Ita O.

1Department of Geography and Regional Planning, University of Calabar

2Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Cross River University of technology, Calabar

ABSTRACT

The rapid growth of population has constituted serious problems especially in urban cities with great housing demand. This paper seeks to examine the consequences of rapid population growth on housing in Calabar. Findings show a high negative value of -0.67 at 95% confidence level which also shows a calculated value of 2.57 greater than the tabulated value of 2.31. This indication reveals that there is a significant relationship between housing supply and population increase in the area. However, it was observed that the area weakest series of urban problems such as squalor settlements and high occupancy rates which were attributed to high population growth. Despite these problems, there was a significant improvement in housing development and quality in the area. Therefore, the various agencies in housing development must ensure that housing regulations are properly flowered by those in the industry.

Keywords: Urban cities, rapid growth, squalor settlements, housing quality.

1. INTRODUCTION

The population explosion has become a prominent twentieth century phenomena which cause rapid increase in the number of large urban centres (Ekanem, 1982). However, the urban centres are expanding as a result of the rising population and the multiple functions in the areas of administration, industrialization and commercialization which further attract people and generate more growth (Udo, 1975).

The spiral growth of population has affected many urban facilities especially in the housing sector. In the past few years, the demand and usage of architectural designs of housing have changed so radically in response to the process of growth. This significant change has been more apparent in the underdeveloped countries of the world (Sada, 1983). In Nigeria, the increasing population especially in urban cities has given rise to

African Journals of Social Sciences, Volume 1 Number 2 (2011); pp.84- 94

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high demand for residential housing. These problems militating against adequate housing supply lies in the socio-economic ability of individuals to erect buildings. The population of the cities appears to grow through naturally; much of the growth has been affirmed through migration from rural areas. Calabar as a case study, which shares this experience has assumed more educational, administrative and commercial functions thereby distinguishing from the pre-urban and early urbanizing population phases within the area (Sule, 1982). These new functions have stimulated more growth by attracting a heterogeneous population.

At present, the population growth in Calabar would be measured in terms of three criteria - functional changes create expansion and socioeconomic development. These three criteria could also be used to determine whether the population growth in Calabar has been rapid or slow. Presently, the introduction of the Cross River University of Technology has created an additional impact on housing demands. However, due to the high influx of visitors which has increased the population in the area, the above mentioned development traits have their spatial expression. But, perhaps the most important factor for spatial expansion in Calabar is the yearly population increase which has seriously resulted to increase in household size because it is synonymous with spatial expansion in additional to the corresponding demand for shelter and social amenities and infrastructures.

Despite of all effort by various agencies to avert these problems, the situation still remains alarming. Could one attribute the shortage of housing supply in Calabar to the high cost of building materials, government policies and cost of land. This paper therefore seeks to examine the rate of housing construction from 1992 to 2010, with particular focus on the distribution of housing, housing demands, housing types, household formation and housing occupancy rates in Calabar metropolis. 1.1 Literature Review

Population dynamics and it resource sustenance have occupied an important position since the beginning of demographic studies. Although Thomas Maltus' ideas have been criticized because the industrial revolution had made possible an increase in productivity, the problem of the disagreement between population size and the means of livelihood has in recent years taken a new dimension. However, the factors associated with rapid population growth are varied. While different factors have been identified in developed and developing countries of the world, there is a consensus that factors such as food supply improved medical facilities.

Early marriages high fertility rare, decrease infant mortality etc. are the basic factors that encourage population growth (Udo, 1975). At present, the urban population structure is a function of the associated growth phenomenon. While a high level of natural increase would result in a youthful population, a high migration rate affects most significantly the household size (Sada 1984). While population in most Nigerian cities appears to grow through the increase or excess births over deaths, much of the growth has been added by migrations from rural areas. The high rate of population increase in third world cities are a consequence' of improved nutrition, changing customs and value (Scholz, 1983). Arguing further on the issue of rapid population growth, Hauser (1967) noticed that population agglomeration requires among other factors, abundant food, social and political organizations. Gyuse (1984) in his book, dimensions of the urban housing problems in Nigeria attempted to summarize into four reasons why provision of-housing


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stock is necessary. These are relieve overcrowding where it occurs, provision of housing for those who may not have provision for natural population increases and the provision of opportunities for improved housing for those incomes can afford it. This means that if housing provision by government and private developers are tackled form the above reasons, most of the housing problems in Nigerian urban centres would be reduced if not eliminated. Many writers hold the view that housing has not been able to cope with the persistent rapid population growth. This has resulted in the deterioration of environmental conditions.

Nevertheless, Gilbert and Perte (1978) disagreed with this idea. They contend that even if it can be demonstrated that housing conditions have deteriorated or improved, accurate interpretation is difficult. In view of the persistent housing shortage found in urban areas, many researchers have attempted to proffer solutions by housing stock using mathematical formulas based on population parameters, occupancy rates and housing conditions. Thus, Vergara (1959) and United Nations World Housing survey (1976) have stated their formulas respectively. Although Vergara had argued that the use of size of population could be misleading, he suggested the use of population structure by material status. In this arrangement, couples, widows spanning sixty years and divorcees spanning 60 years require one dwelling unit each, while single people do not require the same. Amongst the simple estimates used by him include Average Household Size method (AHS) defined as

A=P/H.

Where; P is population. H is number of occupied dwellings.

Using the subscripts, estimates of needs are calculated on the basis of future population and household size estimates Ogunbiades formula states:

N(t)=H(t)+R(t)

Where; H (t) is the housing requirement due to population increase in period (t). R (t) is the number of dwellings needed to replace dilapidated stocks. But the formula was criticized by Sada (1983) as requiring a statistical sophistication in which the level of data collection and analysis is not readily available in Nigeria. According to the United Nations Organisation, the world housing survey formula is:

D = K (P/hs)

Where; D = estimate of housing requirements P = population

Ms = average household size K= no. of household that occupy a single dwelling unit.

According to Gyuse (1984), any formula for population and housing needs

require the estimation of the population, some knowledge of the size of households and future productions of populations and household formation. In all, a lot of constraints have been identified by different scholars of demography; especially in the bid to find lasting solutions to the urban residential problems with particular reference to housing


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stock in an urban environment. According to Inah (1998) in Calabar, low quality housing are commonly erected and are characterized by high population density, the basic principles inherent in layout designs were ignored either consciously or unconsciously. He maintained that this facilitate environmental blights which are threats to public health.

Animashaun (1981) writing on urban residential migration, argues that the housing shortage in Nigeria Cities must not be taken as an isolated case but as a common feature of most Cities in the developing world, where available financial, technological and institutional facilities are not adequate to provide sufficient housing. He observes that one factor that aggravates housing problems in the cities of the third world is the rapidly increasing complexity of man's requirements in housing as regards size, quality in terms of user amenities and environment setting in relation to his aspirations and goals.

Another is the unavailability of land for housing. This constraint promoted the then 1977/78 Head of State of Nigeria, General Obansanjo in his budget speech to pass the “Land Use Decree of 1978 to remove the impediment land poses for housing development. Other constraints that have been identified are housing policies, which are sometimes described by scholars as conflicting with people's housing goals and aspirations. Many scholars, however accept the fact that many housing policies are aimed at increasing sufficiency and reducing housing problems. The national housing policy (1991), focuses on the evaluation of social projects in Nigeria, and argued that the failure of some social projects like water and housing schemes have been due to lack of adequate monitoring and evaluation of policy implementation".

Adeniyi (1972) and Abiodun (1980) both stressed the need for policy, while Adeniyi advocated for the establishment of a National Housing Bank to finance housing development which eventually was adopted in 1976 with the formation of the Federal Mortgage Bank; Abiodun, on the other hand explained the problems inherent in formulating and carrying out a policy but with more emphasis on fiscal allocation rather than the quality of housing delivered.

2. METHODOLOGY

The study was within the confines of the Calabar metropolis. It is located on latitude - 58 North of the equator and longitude 8°19' East of the Greenwich Meridian. The area is about 450km from Ogoja in the northern senatorial district. It has a semi-equatorial (monsoonal) type of climate with normal heavy downpours. The natural vegetation in the area has been considerably altered by urbanization, cultivation and grazing over a long period. The areas have an undulating topography and rises in the south-west and west to a height of more than 62m, the landscape is dotted with basement complex rocks of igneous origin.

It was aimed at addressing the consequences of rapid population growth on housing in Calabar. Data were obtained from a survey carried out in different wards in Calabar. A total of 180 questionnaires were distributed to different households randomly to assess the housing occupancy ratio, distribution of houses and housing types. Other information such as the rate of housing construction between 1992 - 2010 as obtained from Cross River State Ministry of lands and surveys. Verbal interviews were conducted at different locations in other to determine the price level of essential building materials. However, the Spearman's Rank Correlation was used in testing the stated hypothesis which was to assess if there was a relationship between the rate of housing supply and increase in population in the study area. However, it was not possible to get specific


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figures for the different zones, the overall two years material figures specify the rate of housing development. Generally, there was an unstable and poor responsible towards housing development.

3. FINGINGS AND DISCUSSION 3.1 The Rate Of Housing Construction

The rate of construction as presented in table 1 was based on the number of

building applications approved for the period; 1992 to 2010 by the municipal council planning Authority. It was observed in table 1 that the plans approved yearly for the period determines the rate of housing construction. This assumption is based on two premises. The first is that most of the people interviewed in the survey affirmed that, construction work on their houses started immediately after their plans were approved secondly, that the number of illegal buildings are negligible and therefore have no serious effect on housing supply. However, the approve plan from the planning authority shows that there is a geometric increase in approved plans on yearly bases. This result shows that there would virtually be an increase in the demand for housing if projected to 2010 due to population explosion in Calabar.

Table 1 shows that there was a remarkable improvement in the rate of the housing contraction being between 1993 to 1994 and 2006 -2007. Between 1993 and 2004, Calabar witnesses the highest rate of housing development of about 850 houses. This high supply could be attributed to the improvement in socio-economic activities and increasing housing demand. This means that between 1992 and 2005 there were additional 4071 houses to the past stock. By 2010, the stock increased to about 5096 houses built within a span of 19 years, with an occupancy rate of 15 persons per household (Adeniyi, 1980). While land is the major constraint to housing development, the low cost 'of building materials during the 1992 - 2004 period could have enabled many housing investors and potential house owners to increase housing supply in Calabar.

Table 1: Plans approved between 1992 and 2010

Year No. of plans

Corresponding Houses built Approved cumulative

1992 539 539 539 1994 850 1389 1389 1996 493 1882 1882 1998 527 2409 2409 2000 385 2794 2792 2002 298 3092 3092 2004 400 3492 3492 2006 579 4071 4071 2008 621 4692 4692 2010 404 5096 5096

Source: Field survey (2011)


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3.2 Distribution of houses in Calabar Metropolis

The duration of houses and distribution as reflected in figure 1 shows that about 43.9% of the total houses in the surveys were between 1-10 years. This means they were built between 2000 and 2010. About 26-7% of the houses are between 11 - 20 years of age meaning they were built between 1992 and 2010. The numbers of old buildings are small, about 29.4%, comprising houses which are more than 20 years old. However the best response towards housing supply may not have been able to cope with the increase in rates as in the projected population. The ratio of population increase in housing development is about 151 and we could at this juncture speculates over-crowding in the distribution of houses in Calabar.

Source: Field survey (2011) 3.3 Housing Types in the Area

The housing types as presented in figure 2 shows that the housing types ranged

from thatched mud housing, compound housing, semi permanent housing modem block bungalows, storey buildings and colonial prefabricated wooden houses. It was noticed in figure 2 that Modem block bungalows constitute 645 of the housed surveyed. This was followed by storey buildings with 23.3%. Also the semi-permanent housing constructed with mud and zinc and sometimes plastered. This type of housing is sometimes difficult to be differentiated from block houses, because of the cement plastering. About 1 8% of the housing is thatched, while the colonial pre-fabricated wooden houses constituted 0.9% of the housing stock.

46%

23%

14%

9%8%

Fig. 1: Distribution of houses in Calabar

10-Jan

20-Nov

21-30

31-40

Above 40


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Source: Field survey (2011)

3.4 An Overview of Housing Conditions in Calabar Metropolis

The traditional residential area which is in the central business district (C.B.D) area has a radius of about five kilometres. This region has the highest concentration of thatched mud houses and gradually fades with time. There is overcrowding of houses in this zone and they are closely packed, with less than a metre apart. This zone is closely followed by the zone of mixed housing. This is the largest zone and contains all the different types of housing, and accommodates all types of income groups. Better housing in terms of quality continues to be elusive to the low income groups.

The rich in the society seeks spacious houses in the high income residential areas while the low income peoples demand housing in the traditional and mixed housing residential areas of Calabar. Secondly, the increase in household formation is another significant contributor to housing demand in Calabar. Many scholars have observed that the increase in housing need is an inevitable consequence of population growth, whether the increase is a natural increase or by migration. When a marriage takes place, there is the tendency that, there is toll increase in household space therefore, there is a tendency for a household to either demand another dwelling unit or improve on their present population increase and household formation rate are essential factors in housing demand in Calabar. This was evident in table 3. While there is a dearth of data of marriages contracted during this period (1992 -2010), because of customary marriages, the household formation rate could be estimated based on the researchers' field survey, in which an average household was put at ten persons.

3.5 Household Formation

Table 3 shows the yearly increase and the household formation rates are essential in housing demand in Calabar as evidenced in table 3. Table 3 shows that the more the increase in housing demand over the years due to the increase in household formation and


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consequent dissatisfaction of personal housing. In the survey 48.7% expressed dissatisfaction with their present housing. Those whose houses were inadequate, were asked to state their intentions towards improving their housing. About 29.2% showed their intentions to change their residence. Also 10% wanted to rent more rooms. 12.5% intended to extend their present buildings to accommodate new houses. However, 19.5% were undecided about what they will do.

It is observed that most of the dissatisfaction was with housing space limitations. Efforts were, therefore, made to ascertain the sizes of houses in Calabar; with the intention of knowing the number of rooms per house. Generally, houses in Calabar are not so large. A total of 46.1% of the house have between 1 - 5 rooms per house. About 29.9% have between 6-9 rooms; while the remaining 24% of the houses have rooms above ten; typical examples are most storey buildings.

Table 3: Household formation in Calabar

Bi-annually Population Absolute Household

increase formation

1992 180782 5798 580 1994 198932 8858 886 1996 218905 10225 1023 1998 240884 11252 1023 2000 165069 12382 1238 2002 328876 50807 5081 2004 336694 5727 1573 2006 353192 16498 1650 2008 388653 9048 905 2010 427674 19977 1998

Source: Field survey (2011) 3.6 Housing Occupancy Ratio

Figure 3 shows the number of persons per house and corresponding numbers of houses. A greater percentage of the population lives in crowded houses as seen in the figure. For instance, 23.9% of the houses have between 1-10 persons. A cumulative percentage of 56.7% have between 1-20 persons per house and 22.2% of the houses have between 21-30 persons per house. To this extent, one could say that there is the presence of high housing demand in Calabar today. The distribution of site services and facilities such as electricity, telephone, pipe-borne water and good access road network, is also a factor of urban housing demand in Calabar.


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Source: Field survey (2011) 3.7 Discussion

Considering the level or response towards housing supply, it is necessary to the relationship between housing supply and population increase in the Calabar municipality between 1992 and 2009. For a clearer comprehension of the relationship, a null hypothesis is set up, that there is no statistically significant relationship between increase in population and housing supply in Calabar. Employing the spear man's rank correlation coefficient there was a high negative value or 'rs' = -0,673. This was tested for statistical significance, and at 95% confidence level, the null hypothesis is rejected since calculated t-value of 2.57 was greater man tabulated t = 2.31. We therefore accept the research hypothesis that there is a statistically significant relationship between housing supply and population increase. Table 4: Result summary of housing supply and population increase

POP Increase

Houses Ranks (X) (y) x y d d2

5798 539 10 4 6 36 8858 850 9 1 8 64

10225 493 7 6 1 1 11252 527 6 5 1 1 12382 385 1 9 -4 16 50807 298 1 10 -9 81 15727 400 4 8 -4 16 16498 579 3 3 0 0

9048 621 8 2 6 36

19977 404 2 1 -5 ∑d2 = 276

Source: Data analysis (2011)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1-10

11-2

0

21-3

0

31-4

0

abov

e 40

Fig. 3: Housing occupancy ratio in Calabar

No of houses

Percentage of houses

Cumulative % of houses


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4. RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION 4.1 Recommendations

a) There is a need for the Cross River State housing corporations to shift its public housing emphasis from the production of expensive houses for sale to low income in expensive housing delivery.

b) Investment by individuals in housing in Calabar should be encouraged. One way of encouraging private investment in housing may be through land available for housing development.

c) The government should evolve a rent supplement low income rental housing concept and the state’s housing corporation should be utilized as a vehicle for the implementation of this public housing policy.

d) Planners and other professionals alike should re-direct population distribution from dense urban centres to those of less density.

e) Family planning should be encouraged in Nigeria to reduce overpopulation. 4.2 Conclusion

Generally, housing problems in Calabar are yet to be solved and therefore, more attention is required to avert multiplicity of these problems, the solution in Cross River State and Calabar in particular lies mainly in integrated meaningful and accelerated development of rural areas. If these rural areas continue to be neglected urban housing problems in Calabar will continue to soar.

The rapid population growth in Calabar has generated urban problems such as slim development, armed robbers, gangs and environmental degradation in the form of pollution, flooding, indiscriminate dumping of cesspools and the shortage of housing to overcome these numerous problems, the following recommendation is hereby put forward in alleviating housing shortages in the area. REFERENCES

Abiodun J.O. (19SG) "Housing problems and policies; The Experience of a tropical Country: Nigeria 5th Summer Institute in Regional Science. Amsterdam, August.

Adeniyi, E.O. (1972) "Housing in Nigeria National Development" Nigerian Journal of Economic Social Studies, vol. Xiv Nov. pp 315-328.

Adeniyi, E.O. (1980) "Challenges of provision of Hosing in Nigeria's urban centres" 3 International Conference of Housing. "Fifty years of Housing Development in Africa: lessons for the future", paper ICH/12 Kaduna, pp 17-24

Animashaun, I. A (1981) A constraint on urban residential migration Uyo, African Urban Studies No.9; pp. 331-29.

Aradeon, D. (1978) "Regional Assessment of Human settlement policies in Nigeria" Habitat International, Vol. 3 and 4; pp. 331 – 339

Ekanem, I.I. (1980) "The Demography of Calabar, in: P E. B. in. are et at. (eds.). Calabar and Environs, Geographic studies. Abstract and papers: 23rd Annual conference of the Nigerian Geographical Association Calabar, Nigeria: NGA (LOC).pp 23- 47.

Ekanem, I. I, (1982) "The Dynamics of Urban Growth: A case study of medium-sized Towns in Nigeria in Clarke, John I. And Kasinski Lessek A. (ed.) Redistribution of population in Africa: Ibadan (Heinemann). pp 732-41


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Gilbert, A. & Perte, W. (1978). Geography and the urban Environment: progress in Research and applications. Vol. l.p 287.

Gyuse, T. T. (1977) Cultural Principles for Tiv Housing Form in Settlement Context, MDP, University of Calgary, Faculty of Environment Design

Hauser P.M. (1967) The study of Urbanization (2"3 Edition) John Wiley London, pp 214-300.

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Ofegobi, N. (1984) The impact of Rapid Urbanization In Housing in Ugep. B. SC Project. Department of Geography and Regional Planning. University of Calabar

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Scholz, F. (1983) Applied Geography and Development: A Biannual Collection of Recent German Contributions vol. 21 pp 7-21.

Seymour, T. (1978) "Housing Policy and Income Distribution in Kaduna" CSER ABU Reprint paper. No, 4

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Udo, R.K. (1975) "Migration and Urbanization in Nigeria in J.C. Caldwell (ed) Population Growth and socio-economic change in West Africa. New York.

Udo, R.K. (1970) "The Regions of Nigeria" Heinemann London United Nations; Population Division (1976) Global Review of Human Settlements

(Pergamon Press New York) Vergara, J. M. (1959) "Estimating Housing Requirements in Chile 1952-1982" U.N.

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THE CONSEQUENCES OF RAPID POPULATION · PDF fileCross River University of technology, ... experience has assumed more educational, ... The study was within the confines of the Calabar