The Conflict in CrimeaThe Conflict in Crimea

Access to the Black Sea, Sea of Azov, the Balkans, the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea made the port of Sevastopol an extremely valuable and strategic possession for any empire or state. Crimea has therefore been controlled by:

Greek Empire Roman Empire Goths Huns Bulgars Khazars The State of Kievan Rus' The Byzantine Empire The Kipchaks The Golden Horde The Ottoman Empire In 1783, Katherine the Great conquered the Crimea which would

lead to the Crimean War

Occupiers of The CrimeaOccupiers of The Crimea

The Crimean War1853-1856

Russian Empire vs:• Ottoman Empire• British Empire• French Empire• Austrian Empire

What did they want?• Russia wanted to expand their empire• The crumbling Ottoman Empire Wanted a buffer zone in between

them and Russia (Ukraine)• The British wanted to secure their access to the Mediterranean

and stop Russian expansion • The French wanted to rule the Christians in that area and stop

Russian expansion• Austria claimed neutrality, but actually ended up helping the

coalition

Timeline of Events in Modern Timeline of Events in Modern CrimeaCrimea

1850

Crimean War(1853-1856)

1900 1950 2000

Russian Revolution(1917)

Crimea made part of the Soviet Union

as Crimean autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic

(1921)

Occupied by Nazi Germany during WWII(1942-1943)

Stalin Deports the Crimean Tartars and Muslims to Central Asia

(1944)

Transferred to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (1954)

Soviet Union Collapses, Crimea becomes part of the State of Ukraine; Tartars begin to return

(1991)

Crimean Crisis(2014)

Orange Revolution(2004)

Ethnicgroup

1897 census 1939 census 1959 census 1979 census 1989 census 2001 census

Number  % Number  % Number  % Number  % Number  % Number  %

Russians

180,963

33.11%No Data

49.6%No Data 71.4%

No Data 68.4%

No Data 65.6%

1,180,441

58.5%

Ukrainians 64,703 11.84%

No Data 13.7%

No Data 22.3%

No Data 25.6%

No Data 26.7%

492,227

24.4%

Crimean Tatars

194,294

35.55%No Data 19.4%

No Data 0%

No Data 0.7%

No Data

1.9%243,433

12.1

Ethnic Make-up of CrimeaEthnic Make-up of Crimea

TwoTwo sidessides(Viktor vs. Viktor)(Viktor vs. Viktor)

Pro- Russian• Mainly of Russian

descent• Led by Viktor

Yanukovych• Wants closer ties with

Russia• Distrustful of Europe

and the west, and wants less trade and interaction

Pro-Ukrainian• Of Ukrainian, Tartar,

Cossack (and Muslim) descent

• Led by Viktor Yushchenko

• Wants Closer ties (trade agreements, military alliances, etc.) with Europe

• Distrustful of Russia; sees Russia as the Regional bully

November 2004: Orange Revolution begins after reports of widespread vote-rigging in presidential election nominally won by pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych. Opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko leads mass street protests and civil disobedience. Supreme Court annuls result of poll

December 2004: Opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko tops poll in election re-run. Rival candidate Viktor Yanukovych challenges result but resigns as prime minister.

Orange Revolution 2004Orange Revolution 2004

February 2010: Viktor Yanukovych is declared winner in presidential election, judged free and fair by observers. His main rival, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, is arrested for abuse of power and eventually jailed in October 2011

21 November 2013: President Yanukovych's cabinet abandons agreement on closer trade ties with EU, instead seeking closer co-operation with Russia. Ukrainian MPs also reject a bill to allow  Yulia Tymoshenko to leave the country. Small protests start and comparisons with the Orange Revolution begin.

Late November: Protests gather pace, as 100,000 people attend demonstration in Kiev, the largest in Ukraine since the Orange Revolution. Police launch first raid on protesters, arresting 35. Images of injured demonstrators raise international profile of the protests.

Early December: Protesters  occupy Kiev City Hall and Independence Square in dramatic style, turning it into a tent city. Biggest demonstration yet sees 800,000 people attend demonstration in Kiev.

17 December: Vladimir Putin throws President Yanukovych an economic lifeline, agreeing to buy $15bn of Ukrainian debt and reduce the price of Russian gas supplies by about a third.

2010-20132010-2013

16-23 January: Parliament passes restrictive anti-protest laws. Days later, two people die of gunshot wounds as clashes turn deadly for first time. Third death reported as the body of high-profile activist Yuriy Verbytsky is found. Protesters begin storming regional government offices in western Ukraine.

14-16 February: All 234 protesters arrested since December are released. Kiev city hall, occupied since 1 December, is abandoned by demonstrators, along with other public buildings in regions

18 February: Clashes erupt, with reasons unclear: 18 dead, including seven police, and hundreds more wounded. Some 25,000 protesters are encircled in Independence Square.

21 February: President Yanukovych signs compromise deal with opposition leaders.• Protesters take control of presidential administration buildings• Parliament votes to remove president from power with elections

set for 25 May• Mr Yanukovych appears on TV to denounce "coup"• His arch-rival Yulia Tymoshenko is freed from jail

January - February 2014January - February 2014

14-16 February: All 234 protesters arrested since December are released. Kiev city hall, occupied since 1 December, is abandoned by demonstrators, along with other public buildings in regions

18 February: Clashes erupt, with reasons unclear: 18 dead, including seven police, and hundreds more wounded. Some 25,000 protesters are encircled in Independence Square.

21 February: President Yanukovych signs compromise deal with opposition leaders.• Protesters take control of presidential administration buildings• Parliament votes to remove president from power with elections set for 25 May• Mr Yanukovych appears on TV to denounce "coup"• His arch-rival Yulia Tymoshenko is freed from jail

23-26 February: Parliament names speaker Olexander Turchynov as interim president. An arrest warrant is issued for Mr Yanukovych, and the acting president warns of the dangers of separatism. Members of the proposed new government appear before demonstrators, with Arseniy Yatsenyuk nominated prime minister. The elite Berkut police unit, blamed for deaths of protesters, is disbanded.

27-28 February: Pro-Russian gunmen seize key buildings in the Crimean capital, Simferopol. Unidentified gunmen in combat uniforms appear outside Crimea's main airports. At his first news conference since fleeing to Russia, Mr Yanukovych insists he remains president.

February 2014February 2014

Pro-Russian faction of the Crimean government takes control of the military ask President Putin for assistance.

Russian Troops aid Crimean militia and take control of Sevastopol, Feodosiya and other military bases in Crimea

Ukrainian military withdraws from Crimea Crimea holds a referendum and votes to rejoin Russia Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United

Kingdom, and the United States voted to suspend Russia from the group of 8.

The UN General Assembly approved a resolution describing the Crimean referendum on 16 March as illegal. One hundred countries voted in favor of approving a UN General Assembly resolution declaring the Crimean referendum illegal and affirming Ukraine's territorial integrity. Eleven nations voted against, with 58 abstentions.

March 2013March 2013

Similar events are occurring in the city of Donetsk and other parts of Eastern Ukraine.

The Ukrainian government has accused the Russian government of further inciting rebellion against Ukraine

Ukraine has begun a military effort aimed at stopping the break away East.

Analyst report that the Russian military will also intervene to support rebellion in the East

Recent DevelopmentsRecent Developments

Who are the actors involved? What are the causes of the crisis? What are the predictions for the

future? What action (if any) is

recommended?

Analysis of the situationAnalysis of the situation

Neo-RealistNeo-Realist Actors:

Russia, Ukraine Possibly the U.S. and E.U

Causes: Russia

• wants to extend it’s influence thereby increasing its national security and… • increase its relative power against the West

Ukraine • wants to assert its sovereignty because it will lead to greater power and security in the

region (relative gain against Russia).• Wants to keep its relative power and sovereignty (versus Russia), so it forms greater

ties with great powers in the west Possibly the U.S. and E.U

• Control or decrease Russia’s regional power• Gain relative power against Russia

Prediction: • If the main actors seek to gain or maintain relative power; power game who wins?• Russia wins. The possible losses from a conflict with Ukraine are small compare to the

relative power they gain.• Ukraine loses. The losses from a conflict with Russia are far greater than the gains of

its eastern territories.• The U.S. EU loses. The losses from a conflict with Russia are far greater than the gains

of trade with Ukraine and stopping Russian influence in the region. Course of action:

• Russia: Nothing. Strategy successful• Ukraine: Strengthen ties with the West; distance itself from Russia (or the opposite)• U.S. /E.U.: Strengthen ties with Ukraine; bolster military and/or send troops to Ukraine

Actors: Russia, Ukraine Possibly the U.S. and EU Working through institutions

Causes: Lack of institutions and cooperative effort No clear international shared policy The main actors can not see the absolute gains from cooperation

Prediction: Will lead to a regional agreement or institutions Ukraine may join existing security institutions like NATO or the EU

Course of action: Continue cooperative non-military actions (sanctions, UN resolutions

etc.) to pressure Russia into cooperating Ukraine should form a coalition with regional countries (Poland,

Estonia, Latvia, Georgia, etc.) to combine their strengths and pursue similar agendas

Neo-LiberalNeo-Liberal

ConstructivistConstructivist Actors:

• Pro-Russian factions• Ethnic groups in Ukraine/Crimea • Pro-Ukrainian groups • Religious Groups• European corporations and groups with economic interests in Ukraine • Russian political circles • U.S. political groups • International and National Media

Causes:• Shifting ethnicities, religion, culture and language over the last 250 years

has led to tensions over the identity of the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine Prediction:

• Predominant ethnic and culture groups will stabilize around current paradigm

• In the future shifting demographics in the region may again cause a new crisis

Course of action:• Influence the strength (and populations) of cultural identities in the

affected regions