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The Concept of the “CLIOS Process”: Integrating the study of physical and policy systems
using Mexico City as an example
Presentation to the Engineering Systems Division Symposium
March 2004
Co-Authors:Rebecca S. DodderJoseph M. SussmanJoshua B. McConnell
Overview
• Defining CLIOS• Need for a new process• Overview of the CLIOS Process• Mexico City as an example of the CLIOS
Process• Relation to other tools and processes• Additional applications• CLIOS as a systems approach
Defining CLIOS• Complex
– The system is composed of a group of interrelated units (subsystems)
• Large-scale– Impacts are large in magnitude, and often long-lived and of
large-scale geographical extent• Integrated
– Subsystems within CLIOS are, closely coupled through feedback loops
• Open System – CLIOS explicitly include social, political and economic
aspects
CLIOS and Engineering Systems
• CLIOS can describe many different systems, including natural and social systems
• The systems of most interest to us are Engineering Systems, a special case of a CLIOS in which technology plays an important role– Technology can define system boundaries– Technology can be the integrator of the system– Technology can generate a large-scale impacts on the state
and “performance” of the overall system
• A CLIOS can also incorporate several technological subsystems
Motivation for a New Process
• “Nested complexity” – Physical system is “nested” inside a policy system– Both are complex and interdependent– Must understand the structure of each, in order to understand
overall CLIOS dynamics
• A variety of tools and processes must be employed– Quantitative engineering and economic models for the
physical system – More qualitative institutional, organizational and stakeholder
frameworks for the policy system– Integration of physical and policy system analyses
Motivation for a New Process
• Growing number of interdisciplinary analyses of complex systems, often with little guidance on theoveral structure of those analyses
• We need a disciplined way of studying a complex policy situation– Linear, step-by-step, yet iterative mechanism– It is pretty easy to miss something - routinizing the process
can help (but is not a guarantee)
• The CLIOS Process is one (but only one) way
CLIOS Process: Three Phases
• A CLIOS representation (Phase 1) is created and analyzed with reference to both its “structure” and “behavior”
• Then, in the design and evaluation (Phase 2) and implementation (Phase 3) phases, one can:– Measure the system’s performance along its
various dimensions– Identify and implement strategies for system
improvement, given the system problems and goals that motivate the analysis
CLIOS Process:12 Steps
5. Seek Insight about System Behavior
6. Identify Performance Measures and Refine System Goals
7. Identify & Design Options for System Performance
Improvements
8. Flag Important Areas of Uncertainty
Stru
ctur
e B
ehav
ior
IMP
LE
ME
NT
AT
ION
D
ESI
GN
& E
VA
LU
AT
ION
R
EP
RE
SEN
TA
TIO
N
4A. Describe Components 4B. Describe Links
10. Design Strategy for Implementation
11. Identify Opportunities for Institutional Changes and Architecture Development
12. Post-Implementation Evaluation and Modification
9. Evaluate Options and Select Robust Ones that Perform “Best” Across Uncertainties
3. Develop the CLIOS Diagram: Nesting, Layering, and
2. Identify Major Subsystems
1. Describe System: Issue and Goal Identification
Example: Representing Mexico City• Diagrammatic approach to the
representation phase• Helps avoid the omission of
salient factors • Sets up the structure/dynamics
at various levels of detail
Electric Power
Public Transport Investment
Environment
Metro Share
Private Auto Share
Productivity
Private
Foreign
Investment
Bus/Taxi/ Colectivo
Share
Fleet Fuel I&M
Mode Choice
Congestion
Fleet Fuel I&M
Economic Development
Population
Land Use
Auto Ownership
Investment
Human Health
Policy
Aggregate Transportation
Demand
GDP/cap & income
dist.
Quality of Life
Policy
Macro- Economic
Factors
Infrastructure Expansion
Environment
Land Use
Transportation
Economic Activity
Institutional Change in CLIOS
• Institutional changes can be an important part of the overarching strategy for implementation
• Create, strengthen, or break, weaken certain connections between the policy and physical systems
• Redefine the relationships between actors on the policy sphere– Flows of data, resources, approval, ideas, goals...– Lines of control or coordination– Hierarchical or flat organizational and inter-organizational
relationships– Cooperation or conflict
Example: Institutional Change in MC
• Mexico City provides a clear example of how changes in the physical system can impact the types of policy-institutional structures that are needed to manage certain issues.
• The urbanized area has progressed beyond the Federal District across state boundaries to the State of Mexico, and more recently, to the State of Hidalgo.
• In this manner, the physical system changes generated a tension across the policy sphere, which necessitated new institutions at the metropolitan-level.
CLIOS Process: Supporting Tools
• A high-level “meta-process” for moving from initial problem definition, to design, evaluation and implementation of solutions for a CLIOS
• The CLIOS Process serves as an organizing framework for the lower-level tools and processes– The 12-Step Process tells you what to do– The how is left up to the analyst(s)
• Range of possible tools, from various perspectives, used to carry out the CLIOS Process:– Technical/engineering– Economic/financial– Organizational/institutional/political/social
CLIOS Process: A Christmas Tree
• The CLIOS Process can be thought of as a Christmas Tree, with the various processes and tools used in the analysis comprising the ornaments hanging on the tree.
• Structure of the “tree” stays constant, while the choice of “ornaments” hanging on the tree varies to suit the taste or needs of the user
• In interdisciplinary teams,– Each member can chose their processes and tools– Yet, they remain conscious of where their work fits within
the overarching structure of the 12 steps
CLIOS Process: A Christmas Tree
Source: Ali Mostashari
Mapping to Tools and Process
Mapping to Tools and Process
Mapping to Tools and Process
More Applications
• Strong emphasis thus far in transportation systems– Applied in a range of contexts
• Mexico City: Transportation and Air Quality• Malaysia: Public Transportation• Regional Strategic Transportation Planning (RSTP) (Sussman/Sgouridis)
– Explored the interactions of transportation systems with environmental, IT, land use, and other physical subsystems
• Future work• Application to additional Engineering Systems--telecom, energy,
national missile defense and others• Methodological advances, ex: stakeholder involvement in modeling
(Mostashari/Sussman)
CLIOS Process as a Systems Approach• Qualitative as well as quantitative factors ü Necessary step if systems thinking is to be applied to social and political
systems
• Not searching for a system optimumü Focuses instead on the tradeoffs and uncertainties that are more
characteristic of the political process
• Explicitly includes the policy world as a part of the system ü Recognizes changes to existing policy structures as possible and
sometimes necessary
• Clear, comprehensive and structured process for moving from analysis to implementation within a single system frameworkü Yet, allows flexibility in the use of a range of tools and processes to
carry out the actual analysis