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Approach and Main Results Dr. Tony van Vliet. The Collaborative Research Project Changing Perceptions of Security and Interventions. Overall CPSI Model. Media. Actual security. Perceived security. Background. Media. Actual security. Perceived security. Background. Perceived Security. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The Collaborative Research Project Changing Perceptions of Security and Interventions
Approach and Main ResultsDr. Tony van Vliet
Garmish, March 2010CPSI WP 5.1 2
Overall CPSI Model
Actual security Perceived security
Media
Background
Garmish, March 2010CPSI WP 5.1 3
Perceived Security• Measuring (van Noije)• Data Warehouse (Knegt)• Results + Monitor (van
Hemert)• 6 factors
Actual security Perceived security
Media
Background
1. perceived probability (perceived probability that people will become the victim of threat, violence, theft of car, burglary, etc.; six items)
2. fear (feelings of un-safety or insecurity at home and in the neighborhood; five items),
3. apprehension for property crime (level of unpleasantness when people think about the possibility of becoming a victim of property crimes such as burglary; five items),
4. apprehension for personal crime (level of unpleasantness when people think about the possibility of becoming a victim of personal crimes such as rape; five items),
5. perceived consequences of property crime (perceived seriousness of consequences of property crimes such as theft car and burglary; four items),
6. perceived consequences of personal crime (perceived seriousness of consequences of personal crimes such as rape and threat; four items)
Garmish, March 2010CPSI WP 5.1 4
Actual Security• Measuring (Police
Records)• Data Warehouse (Knegt)• Results (van Hemert)• Categories….
Actual security Perceived security
Media
Background
ThreatsTheft of cyclesTheft of carsTheft of other vehiclesBurglary from vehiclesBurglary from businessBurglary from storageBurglary from homeDrug crimeAbuseAssault
Other property crimeRobberyMuggingShopliftingMaterial damagePick pocketingSex offensesNuisanceNeighbour nuisanceDrug nuisanceTraffic accidentTraffic nuisance
Garmish, March 2010CPSI WP 5.1 5
Background
• Measuring (CBS)• Data Warehouse
(Knegt)• Results (van Hemert)• Categories…
Actual security Perceived security
Media
Background
Population density km2Dwelling density km2N of inhabitantsN of householdsN of inhabitants P dwelling% MenAge% IndigenousBirth rateDeath rate
N of owned dwellingsN of dwellings social rentN of dwellings private rentAverage disposable incomeAverage disposable income workersAverage disposable income householdBenefit WWB (until the age of 65)Benefit WWB (65 and older)Registered crimes
Garmish, March 2010CPSI WP 5.1 6
Media
• Measuring (RSS feeds & questionnaire items)
• Data Warehouse (Knegt)• Results (van Hemert)• Media topics…
Actual security Perceived security
Media
Background
Man-made disastersDiscriminationDrugsEconomic downturnNatural disastersProperty crimeSeveralTerrorismViolence & vandalismWar & conflict
Garmish, March 2010CPSI WP 5.1 7
Some overall results part 1 Actual security Perceived security
Media
Background
EXAMPLE
media salience
man made disasters discrimination drugs economic downturnnatural disasters property crime other terrorism violence/vandalism war/conflict
perceived insecurity
apprehension personal
apprehension property
consequences personal
consequences property
fear
probability
actual security
threats
car theft
property crime
material damage
nuisance
traffic accidents
traffic nuisance
background factors
household size malesautochtonic house owners private renting age
Garmish, March 2010CPSI WP 5.1 8
Some overall results part 2 Actual security Perceived security
Media
Background
age
threats fearE197* 1.00 0.20* E162*0.92
-0.24*
Figure X: EQS 6 path age+threat+med_violence-fear.eds Chi Sq.=1.01 P=0.60 CFI=1.00 RMSEA=0.00
vandalism / violence
-0.07*
E194*
1.00
-0.22*
1.00 0.20* 0.92
-0.24*
-0.07*
1.00
-0.22*
Garmish, March 2010CPSI WP 5.1 9
Some overall results part 3 Actual security Perceived security
Media
Background
fear E162*0.96
Figure X: EQS 6 path men+sexoff+med_violence-fear.eds Chi Sq.=1.45 P=0.48 CFI=1.00 RMSEA=0.00
violence / vandalism
E194*
1.00
-0.26*
sex offences
males
0.13*0.43*
E214* 0.90 -0.01* 0.96
1.00
-0.26*
0.13*0.43*
0.90 -0.01*
Garmish, March 2010CPSI WP 5.1 10
Some overall results part 4 Actual security Perceived security
Media
Background
threats fearE197* 1.00 0.17* E162*0.82
Figure X: EQS 6 path autocht+threat+med_violence-fear.eds Chi Sq.=4.65 P=0.10 CFI=0.92 RMSEA=0.13
violence / vandalism
-0.07*
E194*
1.00
-0.13*
autochthonic
-0.53*
1.00 0.17* 0.82
-0.07*
1.00
-0.13*
-0.53*
Garmish, March 2010CPSI WP 5.1 11
Some overall results part 5 Actual security Perceived security
Media
Background
fear E162*0.93
Figure X: EQS 6 path owner+prop crime+propcrime-fear.eds Chi Sq.=3.79 P=0.15 CFI=0.84 RMSEA=0.11
home ownership
burglary
property crime
-0.35*
-0.10*
0.12*
0.14*
E201* 0.99
E191*1.00
0.93
-0.35*
-0.10*
0.12*
0.14*
0.99
1.00
Garmish, March 2010CPSI WP 5.1 12
Conclusion
• CPSI method works• Combining data sources facilitates insight• Resolution postal codes allows for complex
analyses without compromising privacy (van Gorp)
• Makes assessment of interventions possible (resolution….)
• Implementable at city level or higher
