A few years ago my family and I had a thoroughly enjoyable and informative day visiting the

heritage attraction at Bletchley Park, where we learned about the codebreakers and the

work they conducted there. I also live reasonably close to Cambridge which happens to be

where Alan Turing studied Mathematics at Kings College, gaining a first class honors. Both

of these facts meant that as I was was reading the “News” section of The Negotiation

Society, a headline popped up in the newsfeed that caught my attention: Computing pioneer

and LGBT icon Alan Turing will grace the £50 note in 2021.

Turing (23rd June 1912  – 7th June 1954) was an English mathematician, computer

scientist, logician, cryptanalyst, philosopher and theoretical biologist who is known for his

work on codebreaking during World War II at Bletchley Park. This work contributed hugely

to the Allied war effort by allowing them to secretly read Axis communications, previously

thought to be rendered unreadable by the ingenious Enigma system.

Through his work Turing was highly influential in the development of theoretical computer

science, providing a formalization of the concepts of algorithm and computation with the

Turing machine, which can be considered a model of a general purpose computer. 

Turing’s work is now celebrated, and was even the subject of the 2014 Oscar nominated film

The Imitation Game. But sadly, not only was much of his work required to be kept secret for

decades afterwards, limiting the knowledge of his accomplishments to a select few, but after

THE CODEBREAKER

VINCE BROOK

the war he was persecuted by the British government for being a gay man. He was

posthumously pardoned in 2013 with “The Alan Turing law” now an informal term for a

2017 law in the United Kingdom that retrospectively pardoned men cautioned or convicted

under historical legislation that outlawed homosexual acts.

Now there are a couple of aspects of all of this that are intriguing from a negotiation point of

view. Through his work breaking ciphers, Turing made five major cryptanalytical advances

using his skills and thus played a key role in developing five cypher machines. These

provided a formalization of the concepts of algorithm and computation with the Turing

machine.  The application of algorithm-based decisions to inform buying decisions and

negotiations has increased, harnessing the process of using data outputs from a computer

program to arrive at fact-based decision recommendations.

Algorithms work on the principle of making predictions or guiding actions based on pre-

progamming. So does this remove the human element of negotiation? Or, does it just

change the role they play requiring negotiators to assess the suitability of the

recommendations before following them? It requires negotiators to ensure that the total

value of the proposition and wider business potential is fully appreciated if it has not been

factored into the pre-programming.

Even in a one-off value distributive negotiation, consideration should also be given to

future-proofing the solution and longevity of the agreement. If a longer-term, more

collaborative arrangement is sought in an ongoing business to business relationship where

the recommendations have primarily focussed on the pre-programmed objectives or on

lowest cost, this could miss vital value creation opportunities to increase the value of the

deal - suboptimizing it if appropriate levels of assessment and intervention are not

informing the process.

Of course, since Alan’s days it is notable that the use of preprogrammed algorithms has now

progressed into the field of AI where systems are extending human capability through

sensing, comprehending, acting and learning.

Then there is the application of codebreaking. When building a negotiation strategy one of

the planning phases is to build a move planner, carefully staging your proposals and then

trading these variables conditionally using the principle of offering low cost for high value

variables, with the aim of getting as close to the other party’s break point as possible.

But how do we break the code to enable us to understand where the other party’s

breakpoint truly is? Is there a cipher machine to assist with this? Well, if you have seen the

Bombe machine at Bletchley Park you will know just how large and noisy it is – it certainly

would be a distraction tactic! On the basis that the other party is not going to give you this

information freely and a massive code breaking machine is not available, negotiators need

to pull on a range of skills and methods to help them take as informed a view on this as

possible.

Among those methods is the principle of opening extreme. This enables a few things to

happen such as shifting the expectations of the other party, providing us room to move, and

creating satisfaction. It also enables the negotiator to assess the breakpoint of the other

party through an evaluation of their response.

By carefully listening to their verbal response and observing their nonverbal

communication, they can determine how firmly the position has been rejected, how credible

their flinch was, did they use any soft language in their reply, and was their verbal and

nonverbal communication consistent? And then by continuously assessing this throughout

each proposal and move that is made, spotting any changes in their reaction. Once

mastered, this is a powerful tool in the skilled negotiator's arsenal to identify the all-

important breakpoint.

The legacy of Alan Turing’s life and his impact on computer science has been widely

acknowledged, and the annual “Turing Award” has been the highest accolade in that

industry since 1966. The work of Bletchley Park and Turing’s role there in cracking the

Enigma code is estimated to have shortened the war by several years, saving 14 million lives

and helping to determine the course and outcome of the conflict.

While breaking the code of the other party’s breakpoint may not have the impact of saving

millions of lives, it can certainly improve your negotiated outcomes.